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Kaligator

US Politics: Ruthless ambition

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BTW, I dont know if we are allowed to read Minitab posts - we use JMP here in this joint. The latter also lets you know about collinearity in models (and probably has some good blog posts too)

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5 hours ago, DMC said:

If you're trying to compare the US to different countries to try to figure out how the electorate/citizenry may impact a descent into a more authoritarian or "dysfunctional" regime, and you intentionally omit countries that have descended into more authoritarian or dysfunctional regimes, I don't know what else to tell you except your comparisons are incredibly stupid.

But you used Russia and China as examples. Russia has largely been an authoritarian state for a century plus with a brief flirtation with democracy and  I can't even recall a time when China wasn't one. Wouldn't it be much wiser if we're looking at non-Western European countries to compare the US to Turkey and some former Soviet states? 

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18 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

At any rate, I am not as interested in the truth of a model as I am in getting its upper bound (i.e, the upper bound of support for Trump). In that respect, I am ok if pollsters oversample whites without college degrees or things like that.

I agree I'd prefer to see the upper bound as well, but public pollsters primary interest is obviously and understandably accuracy.

10 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

BTW, I dont know if we are allowed to read Minitab posts - we use JMP here in this joint. The latter also lets you know about collinearity in models (and probably has some good blog posts too)

It was just the first thing I found on google that described what I was looking for.  I don't use minitab or JMP - use STATA mostly and R if I have to.  What do you mean you're not allowed?

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

But you used Russia and China as examples. Russia has largely been an authoritarian state for a century plus with a brief flirtation with democracy and  I can't even recall a time when China wasn't one. Wouldn't it be much wiser if we're looking at non-Western European countries to compare the US to Turkey and some former Soviet states? 

Well, I think looking at Russia's quick reversion is certainly worth looking at.  Anyway, that was, like, 8 exchanges ago.  Your argument since has been to only compare the US to other durable democracies, that's the main thing I'm taking issue with.  

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54 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

For the record, he isn't being charged with wanton endangerment for shooting Breonna, it is 3 counts of wanton endangerment for shooting up their neighbors walls. The walls got more justice than Breonna, this is a travesty.

Yeah I just saw this. What a joke. I'm also curious if this will make it easier to give the cop a reduced sentence. The dentist from Alaska with the hoverboard is going to do more time than him.

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2 hours ago, DMC said:

The Dems might be able to get away with this for lower courts, but the SC would undoubtedly strike down any attempt to put a retirement age on their own tenure simple by citing Article III Section 1.  Even a liberal court would strike it down.

It's interesting, I've never heard the argument that lifetime appointment means a mandatory retirement age is unconstitutional.  It may just be my non-American roots.  But I'm skeptical that the courts will strike down a retirement age of 80 or so.  Here's a debate between Posner and Rakoff which touches briefly on the constitutionality of an age limit:  https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/07/should-there-be-age-limits-for-federal-judges.html.  But just because I'm on Richard Posner's side doesn't mean I'm wrong dammit... 

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Like Week said, you have no way to know that he didn't try to encourage her privately.  Now, we all know he's not gonna be aggressive as Trump simply based on one has respect for the court and the constitution and the other does not.  And in Obama's case, he'd want to keep any efforts to influence Ginsburg private (as would she and her family, btw).  Permanently.  We're not finding out through his memoirs.

Well, I'm happy to say I made an assumption that he didn't and we don't know.  But I think it's also an assumption to say we will never find out or he won't mention in his memoirs.  Obama is human.  I expect him to talk about retirements and appointments and subtly deflect blame.  But we can wait until 2024 (Finish the book Barack!) and see who is right...

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2 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

But I'm skeptical that the courts will strike down a retirement age of 80 or so.  Here's a debate between Posner and Rakoff which touches briefly on the constitutionality of an age limit:  https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/07/should-there-be-age-limits-for-federal-judges.html.  But just because I'm on Richard Posner's side doesn't mean I'm wrong dammit...

Heh, good one with the Posner joke.  I don't think it's realistic to expect SC justices to accept an imposition on their own tenure when it's perfectly reasonable to interpret "good behavior" as meaning any retirement limit is unconstitutional.

4 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Well, I'm happy to say I made an assumption that he didn't and we don't know.  But I think it's also an assumption to say we will never find out or he won't mention in his memoirs.

Certainly - although I disagree with you on the memoirs thing.  Publicly divulging that makes him look bad and Ginsburg look bad, I strongly suspect he'll never mention it publicly if it did happen.  I'm just objecting to you "blaming" him for not necessarily trying to pressure Ginsburg.  It's quite possible he would view such "encouragement" as improper - especially considering his background - and I in no way blame him if that's how he felt.  The responsibility to retire at the proper time is solely and entirely on Ginsburg herself, and I'm quite confident she would express the same.

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My crackpot theroy is, that there was an agreement between Scalia and RBG, that they both exit the court at the same time as the two antipodes (they were close friends afterall).

And when RBG saw the shit McConnell pulled with the Scalia seat, she was doomed to stay.

It makes as much sense, as claiming Obama should've bullied her out.

Either way, I think we should really thank the folks who did not turn out to vote in 2016 for reasons, and thus gifting them a shit ton of court appointments, and no less than three SCOTUS appointments.

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Right wing groups on twitter are freaking out because someone brought a U-Haul with signs and some small number of makeshift riot shields, as if this is some violent show of force. Meanwhile here is a couple of videos of Meal Team 6 of the Gravy Seals getting ready to "defend property"

 

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Those guys are fucking idiots and look like cosplayers.  And I'm also terrified because nothing ever happens to them and they are encouraged by the police to do what they are doing w/ near impunity.

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12 minutes ago, aceluby said:

Those guys are fucking idiots and look like cosplayers.  And I'm also terrified because nothing ever happens to them and they are encouraged by the police to do what they are doing w/ near impunity.

That's called a private militia. Welcome to the new world order. Make sure to say a thank you to everyone who argued for acceleration of the decay in our society.

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8 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

That's called a private militia. Welcome to the new world order. Make sure to say a thank you to everyone who argued for acceleration of the decay in our society.

That's just stupid.

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16 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Welcome to the new world order.

Hogan, Hall, and Nash each have their far share of demons (to varying degrees), but they would never do anything like that.

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27 minutes ago, aceluby said:

Those guys are fucking idiots and look like cosplayers.  And I'm also terrified because nothing ever happens to them and they are encouraged by the police to do what they are doing w/ near impunity.

They are dorks. Cringeworthy fucking dorks. I’m reasonably pro-gun (and at this point it’s basically because I don’t want the dork parade types being the only ones who have them...) but I would never walk down the street cosplaying GI Joe outside of Halloween, and never with a real weapon. These guys don’t have anything better to do with their time and the fact that they think they look so tough honestly makes me embarrassed for them. I don’t fear these turds, I pity them.

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I didn’t want to say anything at the time because I didn’t want to ruffle feathers, but weeks ago I saw an in-depth report on CNN about what happened at Taylor’s apartment. As soon as I heard that her boyfriend fired first, I knew that was the end of it.

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13 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I didn’t want to say anything at the time because I didn’t want to ruffle feathers, but weeks ago I saw an in-depth report on CNN about what happened at Taylor’s apartment. As soon as I heard that her boyfriend fired first, I knew that was the end of it.

Is a "I told you so, but actually I didn't because I thought it was controversial at the time so I waited until immediately after I could confirm I was right." Really useful here?

Regardless, I don't think that's particularly controversial or accurate. 

There should be some culpability on whomever planned and approved the no-knock raid on the wrong house. In addition to murder charges.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

Heh, good one with the Posner joke.  I don't think it's realistic to expect SC justices to accept an imposition on their own tenure when it's perfectly reasonable to interpret "good behavior" as meaning any retirement limit is unconstitutional.

Certainly - although I disagree with you on the memoirs thing.  Publicly divulging that makes him look bad and Ginsburg look bad, I strongly suspect he'll never mention it publicly if it did happen.  I'm just objecting to you "blaming" him for not necessarily trying to pressure Ginsburg.  It's quite possible he would view such "encouragement" as improper - especially considering his background - and I in no way blame him if that's how he felt.  The responsibility to retire at the proper time is solely and entirely on Ginsburg herself, and I'm quite confident she would express the same.

I think the SC judges will worry that by adopting such a rule they will be enshrining that interpretation as final and therefore own the conduct of every judge that comes after.  We've all heard horror stories - Marshall, Douglas, Lewis Powell.  Every other major country in the world has a mandatory age limit for federal judges.   And frankly, it might be a relief for them to know that they can enjoy a retirement sometime, somewhere.  Those who are able can still teach, travel, engage in public advocacy, or run for public office if they like.  Every other career is open to them. 

I am blaming him.  As much as Ginsburg, no. 

And I've said before and I'll say again that Obama is the best politician of my lifetime.  I would make him president for life if I could.  But did he get stuff wrong? Yes.  This was a big one.  His best defense (and it would be a valid one) is if he tried, politely, and she demurred.  Fine - that's on her then.  A lot of stuff he cares about (and we all should care about) and she devoted her life to protecting is going into the trash heap once Barrett is confirmed. 

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3 hours ago, Durckad said:

Anecdotally, NE IL and Southern WI are awash with Trump signs. Granted it seems there are far fewer Trump signs than in 2016 but I see almost no Biden signs. The Trump voters I interact with are the very opposite of the supposedly "shy Trump voter," they are loud and proud about it, so the Biden voters could just be keeping their heads down about their preference.

I know I personally would not openly flaunt my preference for Biden, not in this contentious atmosphere at least. Does that make me a coward? Yeah probably, but I really don't think signs, flags, or bumper stickers convince anyone to vote or switch their preferences, especially at the presidential level. Donations do a better job IMO.

I think signs play on our subconscious and impact our feeling on what the "herd" is feeling.  By putting out a sign in front of your yard, neighbors have to contend with the idea that you are voting for that person on the sign, which subconsciously affects whether they'll feel willing to do the same.   If someone who knows and respects you sees that you support XXXX, and they don't, then that causes cognitive dissonance in their mind and can occasionally push them to at least consider re-evaluating their decision.  For those who agree, it lowers their stress levels because it makes them feel less alone.  A big part of our mind is still just an animal trying to fit into the group.

That's what I think anyway, and that's why I've starting putting up signs.  If it loses me friends, I don't really care at this point.   Voting and putting up a sign is all the influence I really have at this point.

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3 hours ago, Durckad said:

Anecdotally, NE IL and Southern WI are awash with Trump signs. Granted it seems there are far fewer Trump signs than in 2016 but I see almost no Biden signs. The Trump voters I interact with are the very opposite of the supposedly "shy Trump voter," they are loud and proud about it, so the Biden voters could just be keeping their heads down about their preference.

I know I personally would not openly flaunt my preference for Biden, not in this contentious atmosphere at least. Does that make me a coward? Yeah probably, but I really don't think signs, flags, or bumper stickers convince anyone to vote or switch their preferences, especially at the presidential level. Donations do a better job IMO.

 

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Trump exceeds Biden signs probably 4 to 1 in the Northeast of the state, at least from what I observe during my commutes:stunned:

My lily white suburb of Milwaukee (that generally still shows up as part of Milwaukee on Google Maps because the outskirts of the city limits is so jacked up) is showing quite a bit of Biden love. I've only seen one Trump sign in the areas I frequent, and it was one of those "Coexist" signs coupled with Trump 2020...very bizarre. 

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21 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I didn’t want to say anything at the time because I didn’t want to ruffle feathers, but weeks ago I saw an in-depth report on CNN about what happened at Taylor’s apartment. As soon as I heard that her boyfriend fired first, I knew that was the end of it.

This exact reason is why no-knock raids need to be banned.  As an american I have a right to defend my home.  If you break in, then its my right to defend myself, by lethal means if I feel endangered.  And if you're a well armed posse of cops, then I'm just going to get killed while trying to defend my family.  And that's wrong.

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2 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

 

My lily white suburb of Milwaukee (that generally still shows up as part of Milwaukee on Google Maps because the outskirts of the city limits is so jacked up) is showing quite a bit of Biden love. I've only seen one Trump sign in the areas I frequent, and it was one of those "Coexist" signs coupled with Trump 2020...very bizarre. 

Several of the Trump voters I know personally are extremely low information voters who have little to no actual knowledge of what Trump has done during his tenure.  They've constructed an imaginary Trump in their mind, and that's who they are voting for, come hell or high water.

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