US Politics - A Dream of Swing

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Are accurate State level polls possible in an era where people screen all their calls and randomized home calls simply are not possible as they once were?

It is looking very possible that the methods that have been used to contact voters simply no longer work.  Too many people don't answer their phone or refuse to take a poll, and the ones that do are a dissimilar group from the ones that don't.  Thus even if you're weighting for Republicans without a degree, the kind of noncollege Republican who agrees to take a poll is already more likely to be Democratic leaning than a noncollege Republican who won't.

Regardless, this is the three elections in a row where Republicans have meaningfully beat their polling averages in Florida and the midwest, and each time pollsters have vowed to learn the lessons of their previous misses and prevent them from happening again.  But the pattern persists. 

[Kalbear]

Most of them are voting by party, same as dems. It's really that simple. Whether it be because they think that Republicans are economically going to help them more, or that they are more socially conservative and dems offer them absolutely nothing, they're Republicans. And they vote Republican.

Some are voting for him because he pisses off liberals. We talked about this before. When you get shit on over and over again by liberals, you like someone who punches back. Those are probably the biggest chunk of people who love him.

Some are voting for him because they voted for him in 2016. 

But really, most are probably voting for him because for them, he does make their individual lives better. The people who are highly watching fox news and twitter and OANN is incredibly small; most people just don't care that much one way or another.

[SeanF]

I think the Democrats have a growing problem in the Senate. The Dakotas are as important as California and New York, but the Democrats have stopped winning rural small States, whereas, they were competitive, a few years ago.  They have to work out how to win them back.

[Ran]

24 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

You’re no longer thinking Georgia is possible?

Oh, no, sorry. I think Georgia is a possibility as well. Atlanta suburbs  still have a lot of votes. But it feels like, from what people are saying, PA seems like a likelier bet.

[Kalbear]

On the fuck DeJoy train:

 

 

[aceluby]

11 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

Also, on polling misses: wow:

 

 

Are they really misses though?  Only 2 had Gideon at 49 or above, and most had at least 10 points of undecideds. It doesn't seem that odd to me that all the undecideds went for the incumbent in the end.

[Kalbear]

Just now, aceluby said:

Are they really misses though?  Only 2 had Gideon at 49 or above, and most had at least 10 points of undecideds. It doesn't seem that odd to me that all the undecideds went for the incumbent in the end.

But Gideon wasn't at 49 or above. She was far less. That's still a big miss even if you have all the undecideds swing one way. 

I think that's the real rub - it's not that there were polling misses. It's that all the polling misses have been in exactly one direction only. That implies a major systemic failure. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

11 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

Also also, while the AP has called Arizona for Biden I think they might eat a bit of crow there and it might end up being real close. While Maricopa ballots are what's remaining they're the late-arriving ones, and we don't know how those skew.

Wisconsin being called for Biden makes a lot more sense though. 

Here's an article about it....I am too tired to make sense of it: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/least-400-k-ballots-left-count-arizona-republic-estimates-and-number-certainly-higher/6157997002/

Quote

Megan Gilbertson, the Elections Department spokeswoman, confirmed the number of mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day totaled between 160,000 and 180,000. That along with additional information from the state's rural counties pushed the number of ballots left to count above 600,000. 

 

Quote

 

Maricopa County's total of uncounted ballots now stands at:

• 248,000 early ballots that arrived on Monday and Tuesday.
• 160,000 to 180,000 early ballots that were dropped off on Election Day.
• 18,000 provisional ballots, about 10,000 of which are from Election Day and the remainder from early voting. 

 

So there is early votes, votes day of, provisionals and then rural ballots.

[DanteGabriel]

1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

I'm honestly perplexed by your comments here. Trump has been vilified since before the 2016 election, just because most on here believe the name calling is accurate does not mean it isn't outside the previous norms.

Is this some magic spell where Cas Stark gets asked three times to name some examples to back up a fatuous attempted point, and they disappear? I'll have to keep this in mind.

[teej6]

AP has called WI for Biden.

[aceluby]

3 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

But Gideon wasn't at 49 or above. She was far less. That's still a big miss even if you have all the undecideds swing one way. 

I think that's the real rub - it's not that there were polling misses. It's that all the polling misses have been in exactly one direction only. That implies a major systemic failure. 

Right, what I'm saying is that most of the polls had her in the 44-47 range, which is about where it ended up.

I do agree that there was a systematic failure yet again in polling.  The oddest part to me, though, is that this didn't really happen in 2018.  I'd be curious to see something as to why the two Trump elections were so far off from the election between.

[Kalbear]

AP has officially called Wisconsin for Biden, even with that incredibly small lead. 

[Cas Stark]

8 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Is this some magic spell where Cas Stark gets asked three times to name some examples to back up a fatuous attempted point, and they disappear? I'll have to keep this in mind.

The questions are ridiculous that's why.  Jesus Christ.  There was an elected Democrat who wished Trump would be assassinated.  Biden calls him a clown. Multiple Democrats refused to attend his inauguration.  Pelosi says he needs to be examined by a team of psychiatrists.  He's been routinely compared to Hitler by elected Democrats in Congress and elsewhere, not even to mention being called a racist and a sexist every week.  What would be the point of ne categorizing all of this only for you to tell me that you believe all of those things are true, therefore they don't represent a digression from normal political discourse.  

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

24 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

I still don't understand Trump's appeal. How the working class can look at him and say, "He gets me" is beyond my reasoning abilities. Everything about him is antithetical to their existence and ability to prosper. I hear the claim "but the economy was good for most of the presidency," but that's determined by a metric that has absolutely no bearing on the working and middle class. Rich people were getting richer, and I suppose people had jobs, but their material conditions didn't change. The daily messaging from media about a booming economy, even if the impacts of this boom do nothing for you, likely acted only as confirmation bias for his supporters. 

Part of the problem, and why Bernie would'Ve been get killed electorally.

The working class is not as left leaning politically/socially/culturally, as it is supposed to. It really isn't. One of the reasons why Corbyn failed so hard at winning an actual election in Britain and the conservative tore into the working class seats of Labour. Once you accept that, it makes much more sense. Those are the guys screaming socilaism sucks, USA, USA, USA, while also being in favour of free health care (as long as it's not socialised medicine obviously). Trump is appealing to their conservative values. Blue collar Reagan voters and so on and so forth.

[SeanF]

Biden has probably won the national vote share by 4-5%.  That’s not far out of line with the average of polling, and some companies, like IBD//TIPP and The Hill were spot on.

State-level polling has been terrible, however, with some exceptions like Anne Selzer in Iowa.

[Kalbear]

Just now, aceluby said:

Right, what I'm saying is that most of the polls had her in the 44-47 range, which is about where it ended up.

I do agree that there was a systematic failure yet again in polling.  The oddest part to me, though, is that this didn't really happen in 2018.  I'd be curious to see something as to why the two Trump elections were so far off from the election between.

Well, I wouldn't say that you can compare the two. 2016 had a lot of bad assumptions in polling. 2020 had a massive change in everything. Turnout was way up, voting was easier for a lot of people, etc. Again my pet theory is that Trump brings out people who wouldn't normally vote, like, ever - people genuinely love him, and that hasn't happened for Republicans since Reagan. But there are probably a whole host of factors that make it pretty weird.

[Ran]

2 minutes ago, Killjoybear said:

AP has officially called Wisconsin for Biden, even with that incredibly small lead. 

Because there's practically nothing left to count. NYT said that there were like 300 ballots left in some rural hamlet.

ETA: The real issue at the end of the day seems to be that the polls all depend on inputting turnout projections as one of their variables for taking polling data to then extrapolate that to results. Tom Bonier has a piece all about this here, written after the 2016 election but very much relevant today. The old saw "high turnout = great for Democrats" missed that this supercharged turnout, in these polarized times, were actually going to negate that traditional advantage in certain places.

[GrimTuesday]

I know that Biden won, but not winning the Senate, and actually losing ground in the house is unacceptable. Heads need to roll over this.

[IheartIheartTesla]

248+ MI(16) + NV (6) > 269 by my count; so here's hoping for Nevada (still doubtful about Arizona, Georgia is a squeaker and Pennsylvania..well, still a ways to go)

[SeanF]

1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Part of the problem, and why Bernie would'Ve been get killed electorally.

The working class is not as left leaning politically/socially/culturally, as it is supposed to. It really isn't. One of the reasons why Corbyn failed so hard at winning an actual election in Britain and the conservative tore into the working class seats of Labour. Once you accept that, it makes much more sense. Those are the guys screaming socilaism sucks, USA, USA, USA, while also being in favour of free health care (as long as it's not socialised medicine obviously). Trump is appealing to their conservative values. Blue collar Reagan voters and so on and so forth.

Yes.  Disraeli was one of the first Conservatives to realise that many working class voters were right wing.