US Politics - Absence of Ballots

[Fragile Bird]

1 minute ago, Killjoybear said:

hee

 

 

Hahaha that was the CNN reporter.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The military vote will likely be good for Trump.

Trump's support among military types has been declining though. He'll still get a majority of it, but it won't look like what it could have earlier in his presidency.

[Varysblackfyre321]

8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The military vote will likely be good for Trump.

The question is how good?

Like how did military vote in the last election?

Particiulary in Georgia.

@DMC

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Trump's support among military types has been declining though. He'll still get a majority of it, but it won't look like what it could have earlier in his presidency.

But then again polls have been wrong immensely as of late.

[JGP]

22 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Not really. I just want Van to lift him by the throat, tear his arms off, and beat lil' Rick bloody with his owns arms.

I don't know, Santorum is what he is, but Van? I got serious questions about that guy.

[aceluby]

2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

I don't know, Santorum is what he is, but Van? I got serious questions about that guy.

I thought it was just me. I think he’s pretty conservative and many times can’t hold it in

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

The question is how good?

Like how did military vote in the last election?

Particiulary in Georgia.

@DMC

I'm not aware of any data on overseas active-duty vote preference, likely because it's virtually impossible to get a representative sample of such a group.  The best data I'm aware of would be the Military Times polling of active-duty troops.  Their poll in August (pre-conventions) showed Biden up 41.3 to 37.4 with 12.8 third party.  But again, that's not isolated to overseas troops let alone overseas troops registered in Georgia.  I highly doubt any such data exists.

[Maithanet]

16 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The military vote will likely be good for Trump.

It'll help a little, but in a state that is 30% black like Georgia, there's definitely going to be some Biden votes in there too. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Automatic recount guaranteed within 0.5% margins in PA, so is that going to happen? The 35000 votes tomorrow from Alleghany will definitely boost Biden's lead a little bit, just wondering how much buffer he needs for military votes, and if there are other provisional ballots around.

[Mindwalker]

John Fetterman: "You can sue a ham sandwich, doesn't mean it's going to go anywhere."

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Automatic recount guaranteed within 0.5% margins in PA, so is that going to happen? The 35000 votes tomorrow from Alleghany will definitely boost Biden's lead a little bit, just wondering how much buffer he needs for military votes, and if there are other provisional ballots around.

There are always a lot of provisional ballots in PA, and even more this year, because a LOT of Democrats got spooked about mailing in their ballots, and so they voted in person.  In PA, if you request an absentee and then change your mind, you vote via provisional.  According to Nate Cohn, the provisional ballots could realistically expand Biden's lead by 2%.  Personally that sounds like a fantastically high number, but he usually knows what he's talking about.  Even if it were only a quarter of that, it would still put it beyond a recount. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

But then again polls have been wrong immensely as of late.

Sure, but I saw a tracking poll a while back that seemed to say his erosion of support is real, and he was never that popular with the officers, who by the way may be more likely to vote. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

To be clear that 19,000 votes are centered in Democratic leaning areas?