Robert didnt bankrupt the crown. Littlefinger Embezzled it.

[The Young Maester]

People commonly blame Robert for the millions of gold the crown is in debt, and dont bother to think it thoroughly. Fair enough Robert had a lavish lifestyle with all the tourneys and feasts he held. The Hands tourney most likely costed somewhere between 100k-150k gold dragons. For robert to put the crown under so much debt, he would had to held a tourney the size of the hands tourney every 2-4 months for the last 15 years of his reign. And the Hands tourney was supposedly the largest of its kind since harrenhall. This is considering that the crown had no incomes as well. 

Roberts reign went through the longest summer in living memory, and a peaceful and prosperous reign. For medieval kings to go under so much debt or bankruptcy, they would either have to be funding war campaigns, or most be going through trying times.

Jon Arryn brought littlefinger to court due to his success at gulltown. We also know that many lords consider counting coppers to be beneath them. Once Littlefinger was in office he quickly realised that the powerful men didnt care about the handling of money, only that the money was there to be spent. Littlefinger probably increased the wages and the positions available at kings landing. He likely auctioned positions to lackeys (reason why the city watch was so corrupt). And importantly stole as much as he possible could through overcharging and any other genius way he could think of.

Six prisoners, Jaime thought sourly, while we pay wages for twenty turnkeys, six undergaolers, a chief undergaoler, a gaoler, and a King's Justice.

Half of these gaolers were also never there. In the Ledgers it likely shows up as these gaolers being overpaid 3x. Whilst Littlefinger secretly takes his share (either half or 2 thirds of it), and the rest pays it to the gaolers that actually worked there. The gaolers being non the wise because they were told they would receive x amount but in the ledgers it probably says 3 times that amount. The same probably applies to all official positions throughout kings landing. There probably were houndreds of invicible overpaid officials.

"As are the crown's expenses. Robert was as generous with his coin as he was with his cock."

The generosity with his coin backs up how littlefinger was overpaying the crowns officials (in paper). But not only the crowns officials were being overpaid, littlefinger probably overpaid for everything that robert needed. If robert held a feast, littlefinger would buy the goods needed for such a thing and supposedly double bill the goods. Maybe the goods were being bought from a 3rd party which belonged to baelish or some lackey. Or littlefinger used the same tactic which in paper it says it costed 2x the amount but actually that extra portion of money it costed was going to littefingers pocket.

"We'll want horses. Swift and strong. The fighting will make remounts hard to come by. A goodly supply of gold will also be needed, for those gifts we spoke of earlier."- Baelish

"Take as much as you require. If the city falls, Stannis will steal it all anyway."- Cersei

He was given free reign to do what he wants with the money he either asked or took from the crown.

Littlefinger did all this under the presumption that Robert was overspending. Plus Roberts neglection of his kingdom also helps back it up that the king wasnt taking responsibility. This avoids people from pointing fingers at baelish but instead they point them at robert.

It fits the narrative as well since GRRM gives us small leads and facts that makes the reader double think certain things and come to numerous conclusion. GRRM loves to make readers doubt, overthink, and guess.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

I can definitely believe that Littlefinger is the real reason why the Crown is so heavily in debt. It'd be very easy for him to mess with the finances, and he lacks any scruples which might give him pause or fear consequences. We know how dangerous he is, and while Robert was certainly a big spender, it's admittedly hard to imagine him spending 6 million all by himself.

[Buried Treasure]

I agree with the points you are making about Littlefingers corruption, and the systematic overspend on the likes of gaolers. I would make the caveat though that LF was only a youth when Robert took the crown, and it was several years into Robert''s reign that LF was brought to court for the purpose of using his talents to solve financial problems that were already developing.

 

The other side of the coin (heh) is taxation. Aerys treasury would have been built up in the years of peaceful taxpaying before RR, and must have been rich enough that the war didn't deplete it.

 

Robert may not have been so successful with his taxation efforts. I'd suggest some combination of:

- Riverlands being forgiven taxes to help them rebuild, as they had borne the brunt of the fighting during RR.

- Lannister influence close to the throne giving the Westerlands preferential treatment.

- Robert's rule of Dorne being too shaky to enforce tax collection.

- Jon Arryn's absence from the Vale emboldening corruption and non-payment of taxes among the port merchants.

- Robert's generosity and impatience with holding court giving him a tendency to grant any petitions to be forgiven taxes.

- Varys working to weaken the crown by not reporting whispers of lesser lords withholding taxes.

[The Young Maester]

16 minutes ago, Buried Treasure said:

I agree with the points you are making about Littlefingers corruption, and the systematic overspend on the likes of gaolers. I would make the caveat though that LF was only a youth when Robert took the crown, and it was several years into Robert''s reign that LF was brought to court for the purpose of using his talents to solve financial problems that were already developing.

 

The other side of the coin (heh) is taxation. Aerys treasury would have been built up in the years of peaceful taxpaying before RR, and must have been rich enough that the war didn't deplete it.

 

Robert may not have been so successful with his taxation efforts. I'd suggest some combination of:

- Riverlands being forgiven taxes to help them rebuild, as they had borne the brunt of the fighting during RR.

- Lannister influence close to the throne giving the Westerlands preferential treatment.

- Robert's rule of Dorne being too shaky to enforce tax collection.

- Jon Arryn's absence from the Vale emboldening corruption and non-payment of taxes among the port merchants.

- Robert's generosity and impatience with holding court giving him a tendency to grant any petitions to be forgiven taxes.

- Varys working to weaken the crown by not reporting whispers of lesser lords withholding taxes.

I was going to initially add that littlefinger was probably brought in to solve the crowns financial problems. And seeing by the points you brought up, their probably was allot of tax evasion, and low taxes. I can easily see robert being ok with this in order to please his subjects.

[Thandros]

While the idea that Robert might allow some tax evasion it doesn't really work. Tywin notes that incomes have increase significantly in a ASOS no doubt he's making a comparison to when he was hand.

No doubt some of this is due to Littlefinger's capability in increasing the crowns incomes but given the numbers it would also suggest the crown is collecting taxes at least mostly successfully.

The crown may have been in financial trouble before Littlefinger but the realm had to fight two wars, rebuild all the damage after said wars and Robert's generosity may have led to him helping out lords in need of funds to repair castles and restore there lands. They also had to build up the Royal Navy, always an expensive task, and then they had to fight a naval war against the Greyjoys. All acts which would cost lots of coin. I think Littlefinger was brought in after the expenses of the Greyjoy Rebellion placed the crown under financial pressure. He then increase incomes significantly but also inflated every expense he could and stole everything he could get away with.

Littlefinger's plan whatever it is requires large amounts of funds but also to deprive his enemies of funds, Much of his income gains would probably slowly unravel without maintenance while the expenses would remain leading the crown to financial ruin while he was large sums of cash to utilize for his own means. You can see him doing something similar in the Vale. Holding onto food stocks to sell later at inflated prices while his opponents are selling now. He gets money when they start needing to buy food and he can make much more money off of it.

Robert may not have help the situation but given the numbers involved it would require I think many more tourneys than are suggested to be hosted. Apart from the Hand's tourney only one on Joffrey's nameday is said to have been held in 298 AC. Given that a truly serious tourney may need months of notice to gather competitors I doubt Robert could have held more than  20 tourneys between the end of the Greyjoy Rebellion and 298 AC. A lot of money but that doesn't lead to 6 million of debt when incomes are so high. Feats may also played a role but we don't actually hear about that many so it's hard to see. Robert may have created some of the debt but I think the OP is correct when he thinks a lot of it is Littlefinger embezzling money for his own purposes. 

[Roswell]

Robert was responsible for bankrupting the kingdom.  Jon Arryn is neither so dumb and nor so senile that he would have allowed Littlefinger to empty out Aerys Targaryen's treasury.  That can only have been done with Robert's approval.  Robert and Jon had to sign off on any massive expenditure.  So no, you cannot blame this on Littlefinger.  I mean Littlefinger may have embezzled a few coins here and there but the amount of the crown's debt can only mean it was done with Robert's and Jon's knowledge.  Robert can only be excused if he spent his whole reign in a coma.  He did not.  So he has to take the blame for the financial condition of Westeros. 

[CamiloRP]

I actually thought this was something we all agreed on... Oh well, silly me.

 

[The Young Maester]

1 hour ago, Roswell said:

Robert was responsible for bankrupting the kingdom. 

I would believe that if robert was lord of storms end only. Not king of the seven kingdoms, with direct control of tariffs from oldtown, all the way up to white harbour. He also had kings landing,the largest, wealthiest, and main trade hub of westeros. It was said back in the 800s that Lunden (old london) generated enough money to rival the the income of a smaller kingdom the size of east anglia. Imagine how much money was made from kings landing itself, without considering the taxes it claimed from all westeros. 

1 hour ago, Roswell said:

Jon Arryn is neither so dumb and nor so senile that he would have allowed Littlefinger to empty out Aerys Targaryen's treasury. 

"Everybody trusts him because he seems powerless, and he's very friendly, and he's very helpful."- GRRM

Jon Arryn dosent strike me as the smartest of men. Simply a diplomatic and dutiful man. He trusted littlefinger because the man apparently could rub 2 golden dragons and generate a 3rd golden dragon. 

1 hour ago, Roswell said:

That can only have been done with Robert's approval.  Robert and Jon had to sign off on any massive expenditure.

Petyr Baelish had not believed in letting gold sit about and grow dusty, that was for certain, but the more Tyrion tried to make sense of his accounts the more his head hurt. It was all very well to talk of breeding dragons instead of locking them up in the treasury, but some of these ventures smelled worse than week-old fish. 

Well clearly thats how he benefited from the loans. He made sure the treasury was empty, and whenever money was needed to fund something, he would take out a loan and spend it wherever its needed and insure nothing ever enters the treasury.

1 hour ago, Roswell said:

So no, you cannot blame this on Littlefinger.  I mean Littlefinger may have embezzled a few coins here and there but the amount of the crown's debt can only mean it was done with Robert's and Jon's knowledge. 

You know as well as I that the treasury has been empty for years. I shall have to borrow the money. No doubt the Lannisters will be accommodating.

He clearly didnt need permission to take out loans. Jon Arryn trusted him and let him handle the finances of the realm. 

1 hour ago, Roswell said:

  Robert can only be excused if he spent his whole reign in a coma.  He did not.  So he has to take the blame for the financial condition of Westeros. 

You can say he was in coma since he only attended 2-3 small council meetings during his whole reign. No doubt busy with his whores.

As i said on the main post. For robert to put the crown in that much debt he most have held at least a hands sized tourney every 3 months. Other than tourneys he went hunting, whoring, drinking, and feasted. All these are cheap luxuries for a king that controls an entire continent. 

And so far we never see robert come up with other ways to spend money besides the usual luxurious life of a king.

Ten years ago, Jon Arryn had given him a minor sinecure in customs, where Lord Petyr had soon distinguished himself by bringing in three times as much as any of the king's other collectors. King Robert had been a prodigious spender. A man like Petyr Baelish, who had a gift for rubbing two golden dragons together to breed a third, was invaluable to his Hand. Littlefinger's rise had been arrow-swift. Within three years of his coming to court, he was master of coin and a member of the small council, and today the crown's revenues were ten times what they had been under his beleaguered predecessor . . . though the crown's debts had grown vast as well. A master juggler was Petyr Baelish.

No doubt when littlefinger came to court the crown needed help with generating a revenue. This is where the smart and cunning baelish plays his hand.

Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock it in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king's debts in promises, and put the king's gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings.

Clearly Baelish never let money touch the treasury. Because anything that goes to the treasury cant be touched unless the hand or the king decide to touch it. For this reason baelish kept money outside the treasury and made it look like the crown was being enriched when in fact he was enriching himself. When Robert needed to hold a tourney and there wasnt any money in the vaults, littlefinger would smell opportunity and take out a loan. With that loan he would do whatever he wanted. And he clearly had free reign to spend the money where he wanted.

I shall have to borrow the money. No doubt the Lannisters will be accommodating.

He didnt even ask ned stark for permission. He just said "ima go take out a loan in the name of your foster-brother".

[frenin]

I don't think it'll ever be answered but the answer is some kind of Robert and LF, people have trouble believing Robert would have bankrupted the Crown, the Kingdom is not bankrupted,  because Martin's numbers are simply too ludicrous to believe. Robert simply can't have spent money to the point of being 6 million in debt.

How i reconcile this is simply ignoring numbers, before there was a lot of money, Robert left the treasure with heavy debts. If you think that way it's perfectly plausible that Robert with a little help of LF left the crown in debt, given that Martiin is not a man of maths i tend to believe this was his overall point.

 

 

[The Young Maester]

18 minutes ago, frenin said:

How i reconcile this is simply ignoring numbers, before there was a lot of money, Robert left the treasure with heavy debts. If you think that way it's perfectly plausible that Robert with a little help of LF left the crown in debt, given that Martiin is not a man of maths i tend to believe this was his overall point.

I also believe the numbers are exaggerated. I made my own calculations and it was impossible for that amount of money to be spent. But George just wanted to go with the realm is under allot of debt. So a number had to be thrown in.

[SeanF]

Martin isn't that good with numbers.  I don't believe for one moment that the winners of tournaments would be netting thousands of gold coins.

However, there are probably several reasons for the crown's debts:-

1. Kings Landing was savagely sacked by Tywin.  It probably took a while for commerce to recover.  The crown's income from rents and taxes in the capital would have plummeted, for some time.

2. Widespread corruption, on the part of Littlefinger, but no doubt, all the way down the line.  Salaries are being drawn for dead/fictitious employees.

3. The cost of rebuilding the royal navy.

4.  Alienation of lands.  No doubt the Lanniisters were given lands to cover their loans to the crown.

5. Robert's own extravagance. 

 

[frenin]

38 minutes ago, The Young Maester said:

I also believe the numbers are exaggerated. I made my own calculations and it was impossible for that amount of money to be spent. But George just wanted to go with the realm is under allot of debt. So a number had to be thrown in.

Well both @Thandros and @SeanF had put it better than i could ever do,  i don't believe that Robert was the sole reason for the debts but it's quite clear that he was a reason. However big that was.

For example, Aerys 2 was notoriously extravagant and while in debt to Braavos and the situation never was so dire.

 

 

[TheLastWolf]

Moonboy was secretly smuggling dragons (gold ones) to Patchface to fulfill their schemes 

[The hairy bear]

14 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

I would believe that if robert was lord of storms end only. Not king of the seven kingdoms, with direct control of tariffs from oldtown, all the way up to white harbour. He also had kings landing,the largest, wealthiest, and main trade hub of westeros.

But you should also consider the fact that Robert's position wasn't completely consolidated. He was the first king of a new dynasty, and had only recently won a war where half the realm fought against him. It's probable that he couldn't afford the luxury of rising the tariffs and taxes higher that the Targaryens, or he would risk widespread opposition across the realm.

The crown being in debt is not necesarily a big problem, but the major nobles deciding that they would be better off with Viserys returning would definitely be.

14 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock it in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king's debts in promises, and put the king's gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings.

Clearly Baelish never let money touch the treasury. Because anything that goes to the treasury cant be touched unless the hand or the king decide to touch it. For this reason baelish kept money outside the treasury and made it look like the crown was being enriched when in fact he was enriching himself. When Robert needed to hold a tourney and there wasnt any money in the vaults, littlefinger would smell opportunity and take out a loan. With that loan he would do whatever he wanted. And he clearly had free reign to spend the money where he wanted.

You seem to assume that having the treasury empty is a sign of missmanagement. It isn't. In fact, every single financial adviser in the world would told you that the opposite is true.

Every single country in the world is in debt. How much debt is optimal in relation to the generated incomes is a matter of debate, but no economist defends a no debt policy.

In the books, we get a skewed view because we get to know about the crown's debt through the eyes of Ned, a frugal conservative from a backward region with little knowledge of trade and economics.

(I'm not saying that Littlefinger didn't commit fraud. He probably did. I just want to stress that puting the crown in debt, increase public spending, investing in profitable business and keep the taxes low are all very sensible economic policies after a war and/or recession. It's Keynes 1.0, basically.)

14 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

As i said on the main post. For robert to put the crown in that much debt he most have held at least a hands sized tourney every 3 months. Other than tourneys he went hunting, whoring, drinking, and feasted. All these are cheap luxuries for a king that controls an entire continent.

We can count on Robert organizing big tourneys for his own name day and Joffrey's name day every year. There was also probably some public spending to celebrate the name days of Cersei, Myrcella and Tommen.

Robert is described as careless and prodigal man. He surely was generous when deciding the wages for the City Watch, giving useless bureauchratic posts to relatives of his friends, or condoning taxes to nobles that had supported him during the Rebellion.

3 hours ago, frenin said:

I don't think it'll ever be answered but the answer is some kind of Robert and LF, people have trouble believing Robert would have bankrupted the Crown, the Kingdom is not bankrupted,  because Martin's numbers are simply too ludicrous to believe. Robert simply can't have spent money to the point of being 6 million in debt.

Of course the kingdom is not bankrupted. Just the fact that Littlefinger claims that it is possible to obtain additional loans from the Lannisters or the Bank of Braavos proves that it isn't. And I don't think it's possible to evaluate how delicate is the situation of the crown without knowing the value of a golden dragon or its regular income.

I'm far from an expert on the matter of the finances of medieval kingdoms, but I'm not exactly sure what aspect of Martin's numbers you consider too ludicrous to believe. I fail to see why six million golden dragons is too much to be realistic.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, The Young Maester said:

People commonly blame Robert for the millions of gold the crown is in debt, and dont bother to think it thoroughly. Fair enough Robert had a lavish lifestyle with all the tourneys and feasts he held. The Hands tourney most likely costed somewhere between 100k-150k gold dragons. For robert to put the crown under so much debt, he would had to held a tourney the size of the hands tourney every 2-4 months for the last 15 years of his reign. And the Hands tourney was supposedly the largest of its kind since harrenhall. This is considering that the crown had no incomes as well. 

Roberts reign went through the longest summer in living memory, and a peaceful and prosperous reign. For medieval kings to go under so much debt or bankruptcy, they would either have to be funding war campaigns, or most be going through trying times.

Jon Arryn brought littlefinger to court due to his success at gulltown. We also know that many lords consider counting coppers to be beneath them. Once Littlefinger was in office he quickly realised that the powerful men didnt care about the handling of money, only that the money was there to be spent. Littlefinger probably increased the wages and the positions available at kings landing. He likely auctioned positions to lackeys (reason why the city watch was so corrupt). And importantly stole as much as he possible could through overcharging and any other genius way he could think of.

Six prisoners, Jaime thought sourly, while we pay wages for twenty turnkeys, six undergaolers, a chief undergaoler, a gaoler, and a King's Justice.

Half of these gaolers were also never there. In the Ledgers it likely shows up as these gaolers being overpaid 3x. Whilst Littlefinger secretly takes his share (either half or 2 thirds of it), and the rest pays it to the gaolers that actually worked there. The gaolers being non the wise because they were told they would receive x amount but in the ledgers it probably says 3 times that amount. The same probably applies to all official positions throughout kings landing. There probably were houndreds of invicible overpaid officials.

"As are the crown's expenses. Robert was as generous with his coin as he was with his cock."

The generosity with his coin backs up how littlefinger was overpaying the crowns officials (in paper). But not only the crowns officials were being overpaid, littlefinger probably overpaid for everything that robert needed. If robert held a feast, littlefinger would buy the goods needed for such a thing and supposedly double bill the goods. Maybe the goods were being bought from a 3rd party which belonged to baelish or some lackey. Or littlefinger used the same tactic which in paper it says it costed 2x the amount but actually that extra portion of money it costed was going to littefingers pocket.

"We'll want horses. Swift and strong. The fighting will make remounts hard to come by. A goodly supply of gold will also be needed, for those gifts we spoke of earlier."- Baelish

"Take as much as you require. If the city falls, Stannis will steal it all anyway."- Cersei

He was given free reign to do what he wants with the money he either asked or took from the crown.

Littlefinger did all this under the presumption that Robert was overspending. Plus Roberts neglection of his kingdom also helps back it up that the king wasnt taking responsibility. This avoids people from pointing fingers at baelish but instead they point them at robert.

It fits the narrative as well since GRRM gives us small leads and facts that makes the reader double think certain things and come to numerous conclusion. GRRM loves to make readers doubt, overthink, and guess.

My working theory goes like this:

Littlefinger is actually working for/with Illyrio in a scheme to bring down the Iron Bank. This will crash the Braavosi economy, allowing Pentos to tear up the peace treaty it signed with Braavos so Illyrio and his ilk can start trading in slaves again.

Here is how it works: Illyrio began by bankrolling LF's rise to MoC. There is no way a lowly customs collector can suddenly bring in all this wealth without causing a major disruption in Gulltown. Either he is overtaxing merchants and shipowners or he is exposing the other collectors as crooked and/or incompetent. Either way, it should have gotten LF a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. But with Illyrio proving the gold, LF looks like a hero to the Arryns and still has enough money to bribe is way to chief of customs. Rinse and repeat in Kings Landing.

Once he is MoC, LF starts borrowing from the IB, as well as Lannisters, Tyrells, the faith, etc. Virtually all of this money is deposited back to the IB, with Illyrio making sure there is enough money to fund the government, tourneys, bribes, etc. Now that the throne is so heavily indebted and there is no actual money in the treasury, the inevitable default occurs, and the IB does what it always does: finds a champion to back financially so they will get their money back.

The problem the bankers didn't foresee, however, is that Westeros is not Essos. In the Free Cities, anyone can become an archon, triach, whatever, but the Iron Throne is a hereditary post. So the bank has to either find someone with a legitimate claim or they have to conquer all seven great houses, or both. This means they have to shell out a whole lot more money to put Stannis on the throne. And if Stannis dies? There is no one left, since no one is likely risk their necks for Shireen.

Meanwhile, Illyrio has a legitimate claimant poised to take the throne, and the first thing that King Aegon will do is declare the debts of usurpers and murderers to be null and void (except for the houses that back his claim), which will make the IB's depositors very nervous about the bank's solvency. Then, all it will take is for one depositor to be refused a withdrawal to start a classic run on the bank -- like what happened to the Rogares -- and then the bank is gone in a day, along with the Braavosi economy.

So what if Aegon refuses to pay, you might ask? The IB will just off him with a Faceless Man? They might, but then what? Either Aegon has an heir who will be under a regency selected by Illyrio, which will still refuse to pay back the loan, or the realm is thrown right back into civil war that would most likely result in seven independent kingdoms again, none of which owes a dime to the Iron Bank.

My prediction is that the IB will collapse by the end of Winds, and won't that stir up the plot in a major way.

[The Young Maester]

9 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

But you should also consider the fact that Robert's position wasn't completely consolidated. He was the first king of a new dynasty, and had only recently won a war where half the realm fought against him. It's probable that he couldn't afford the luxury of rising the tariffs and taxes higher that the Targaryens, or he would risk widespread opposition across the realm.

Hence why they brought littlefinger to help solve their money issues. 

12 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

You seem to assume that having the treasury empty is a sign of missmanagement. It isn't. In fact, every single financial adviser in the world would told you that the opposite is true.

No I don’t consider keeping the treasury empty a mismanagement. It’s a brilliant idea to keep money flowing. This much movement of money is great for an economy. However its not great since littlefinger is probably stealing off most of the money that is out of the treasury. If littlefinger was a loyal master of coins, this movement of money would greatly benefit the crown, and Robert would be super rich or wouldn’t have so much debt. However Baelish has no loyalty or morality whatsoever.

17 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

Every single country in the world is in debt. How much debt is optimal in relation to the generated incomes is a matter of debate, but no economist defends a no debt policy.

In the books, we get a skewed view because we get to know about the crown's debt through the eyes of Ned, a frugal conservative from a backward region with little knowledge of trade and economics.

(I'm not saying that Littlefinger didn't commit fraud. He probably did. I just want to stress that puting the crown in debt, increase public spending, investing in profitable business and keep the taxes low are all very sensible economic policies after a war and/or recession. It's Keynes 1.0, basically.)

Being under such debt would be beneficial only if littlefinger was bringing money in. However all the money that does come in is being spent by Robert and the crowns expenses, as well as being stolen by littlefinger. How much has he stolen? We dont know, but the man is super wealthy, and he most likely built his brothels in order to make it seem as if he was rich because of them.

21 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

We can count on Robert organizing big tourneys for his own name day and Joffrey's name day every year. There was also probably some public spending to celebrate the name days of Cersei, Myrcella and Tommen.

He probably did hold tourneys every year. But they didn’t seem to be as big as the hands or the lannisport one. Tourneys are very frequent in Westeros. Him holding one every year wouldnt be odd. But it wouldn’t have the major costs that the hands one did. These tourneys would barely hit a million gold dragons, for the last 15 years.

27 minutes ago, The hairy bear said:

Robert is described as careless and prodigal man. He surely was generous when deciding the wages for the City Watch, giving useless bureauchratic posts to relatives of his friends, or condoning taxes to nobles that had supported him during the Rebellion.

He not doubt eased taxes on his friends and supporters. But I very much doubt he handled the running of kings landing. That task was given to Jon Arryn, which in turn it seems that it might also have been given to Baelish. If the gaolers are any evidence.

[The Young Maester]

31 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

My working theory goes like this:

Littlefinger is actually working for/with Illyrio in a scheme to bring down the Iron Bank. This will crash the Braavosi economy, allowing Pentos to tear up the peace treaty it signed with Braavos so Illyrio and his ilk can start trading in slaves again.

Here is how it works: Illyrio began by bankrolling LF's rise to MoC. There is no way a lowly customs collector can suddenly bring in all this wealth without causing a major disruption in Gulltown. Either he is overtaxing merchants and shipowners or he is exposing the other collectors as crooked and/or incompetent. Either way, it should have gotten LF a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. But with Illyrio proving the gold, LF looks like a hero to the Arryns and still has enough money to bribe is way to chief of customs. Rinse and repeat in Kings Landing.

Once he is MoC, LF starts borrowing from the IB, as well as Lannisters, Tyrells, the faith, etc. Virtually all of this money is deposited back to the IB, with Illyrio making sure there is enough money to fund the government, tourneys, bribes, etc. Now that the throne is so heavily indebted and there is no actual money in the treasury, the inevitable default occurs, and the IB does what it always does: finds a champion to back financially so they will get their money back.

The problem the bankers didn't foresee, however, is that Westeros is not Essos. In the Free Cities, anyone can become an archon, triach, whatever, but the Iron Throne is a hereditary post. So the bank has to either find someone with a legitimate claim or they have to conquer all seven great houses, or both. This means they have to shell out a whole lot more money to put Stannis on the throne. And if Stannis dies? There is no one left, since no one is likely risk their necks for Shireen.

Meanwhile, Illyrio has a legitimate claimant poised to take the throne, and the first thing that King Aegon will do is declare the debts of usurpers and murderers to be null and void (except for the houses that back his claim), which will make the IB's depositors very nervous about the bank's solvency. Then, all it will take is for one depositor to be refused a withdrawal to start a classic run on the bank -- like what happened to the Rogares -- and then the bank is gone in a day, along with the Braavosi economy.

So what if Aegon refuses to pay, you might ask? The IB will just off him with a Faceless Man? They might, but then what? Either Aegon has an heir who will be under a regency selected by Illyrio, which will still refuse to pay back the loan, or the realm is thrown right back into civil war that would most likely result in seven independent kingdoms again, none of which owes a dime to the Iron Bank.

My prediction is that the IB will collapse by the end of Winds, and won't that stir up the plot in a major way.

I read somewhere how littlefinger is planning to crash the bravosi banks.

Its definitely a possibility that Illyrio is working with Baelish to accomplish this goal. It might be also that Baelish wants to be the new bank of Westeros and essos.

The Iron thrones refusal to pay back the debt has already happened with Cersei. I agree it probably will be the same with aegon in power. And if all the Baratheons are dead, the iron bank will have to look for another claimant. Most likely Daenerys, however illyrio probably expects Daenerys to marry aegon and that’s it. The bank is fucked and has no way of dethroning them.

So end goal for illyrio is to put his aegon on the throne and maybe be the new bank of the narrow sea? Maybe Baelish has the same aspirations. 

[Gramse]

I really like the theories. LF very likely made sure plenty of coins made it to his pocket.

How does it all connect to owning whore houses? That was the official explanation for LF:s wealth wasnt it?

[The Young Maester]

1 minute ago, Gramse said:

How does it all connect to owning whore houses? That was the official explanation for LF:s wealth wasnt it?

He most likely used the brothels to either launder his wealth. Or it maybe was just a facade for whenever people wondered how he got so rich.

[Gramse]

Also lets not forget one gaoler (Rugen?) who is in reality Varys. We hear from a Jamie POV that he was rarely there.

A secret pact between LF and Varys?

 

This fits well with the Illyrio connection.

Perhaps setting LF whore houses up with slaves once Pentos can start trading slaves again?