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Alyn Oakenfist

Who will detonate the wildfire, and why? Please stop and let this thread die...

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12 hours ago, James West said:

Aegon or Daenerys would do it only to stop a pandemic.  Greyscale would count as a pandemic.  They will only do so if there is no other way to keep the disease from spreading. 

I cant imagine Dany would care much about preventing infection. This would be the same Daenerys who said "screw social distancing, I cant get sick," then gets sick.

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To me most likely candidate seems Cersei, she already burned The Tower of the Hand for reasons, has paranoid tendencies - not the least hearing Tyrion  lurking in the walls, and now Pycelle and Kevan Lannister are killed by Crossbow and by daggers wielded by small people.

She already has made deals with the Guild for production of Wildfire and has some sort of enjoyment in using it. 

Quote

His sister liked to think of herself as Lord Tywin with teats, but she was wrong. Their father had been as relentless and implacable as a glacier, where Cersei was all wildfire, especially when thwarted. She had been giddy as a maiden when she learned that Stannis had abandoned Dragonstone, certain that he had finally given up the fight and sailed away to exile. When word came down from the north that he had turned up again at the Wall, her fury had been fearful to behold. She does not lack for wits, but she has no judgment, and no patience

 

Quote

"No need." Cersei felt too alive for sleep. The wildfire was cleansing her, burning away all her rage and fear, filling her with resolve. "The flames are so pretty. I want to watch them for a while." Jaime hesitated. "You should not stay alone."

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2 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I cant imagine Dany would care much about preventing infection. This would be the same Daenerys who said "screw social distancing, I cant get sick," then gets sick.

You are prejudiced at times, like everyone is entitled to. At times. Unlike others. 

Your Dany comments are really fresh, funny and half the time valid. But at some point, you become bitter in an argument and make the same mistakes i did. I love her too, to an extent and feel you go too far sometimes, like I did. All the best and Merry Christmas. Soon

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58 minutes ago, TheLastWolf said:

You are prejudiced at times, like everyone is entitled to. At times. Unlike others. 

Your Dany comments are really fresh, funny and half the time valid. But at some point, you become bitter in an argument and make the same mistakes i did. I love her too, to an extent and feel you go too far sometimes, like I did. All the best and Merry Christmas. Soon

Are you doing Amazon reviews of people's comments? :blink:

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23 hours ago, James West said:

In order of the most likely to detonate the wildfire:

  1. Euron Greyjoy
  2. The Faceless Men (Arya Stark)
  3. Arrianne Martell and the Sand Snakes
  4. Arya Stark on her own initiative.  She would do this if she is near the city when news of Jon's death reaches her. 
  5. Cersei Lannister
  6. Stannis Baratheon
  7. The Sparrows
  8. The Wildlings under The Weeper

Aegon or Daenerys would do it only to stop a pandemic.  Greyscale would count as a pandemic.  They will only do so if there is no other way to keep the disease from spreading. 

Jon Snow would turn destroyer if Arya gets killed before he does.  He is another vengeful sort.  But he will use ice to do his dirty work.  He could lead an army of wights into the city.  I assume a few wights will get through the Trident and menace the south.  Jon would be part of that army.

The FM would love that.  Half a million people sent to their deaths.  They have a tool in Arya to do the deed.  

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On 12/7/2020 at 5:12 PM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Following Checkov's wildfire it is clear that the catches are going to be lit. Right now I see 3 possibilities of how it might happen.

  1. Cersei. So Cersei is sure to go out with a bang, but whether it will be a metaphorical or literal one is hard to say. It would be a nice end to her Mad Queen ark, but then again, she parallels Robert more then she does Aerys. But it's still a big possibility that she intentionally detonates it in the clusterfuck that will be King's Landing before Aegon swoops in.
  2. Jon Conn. So Jon Conn will have a nice ark in TWOW of doing ever more fucked up shit to put Aegon on the Throne (I have a feeling that massacring the prisoners at the end of Westerosi Agincourt might not be the end of it). So if shit really hits the fan with Dany he might set it off in an attempt to kill her, or as a final fuck you if she kills his silver prince. I find this the least likely option.
  3. Dany. I can see 3 ways she might do it
    1. Accidentally when Dance of Dragoning Aegon. No need to elaborate that one
    2. Accidentally or maybe intentionally if the populace goes really against her. So Dany seems to be on a pretty Rhaenyra-ish trajectory, with a pinch of Aemond thrown in for good measure. As previously outlined I think she will kill Aegon and be seen as a kinslayer and usurper for it, similarly to how Rhaenyra was seen after Halaena's suicide, which sparked the storming of the Dragonpit. I can see the people of KL trying to pull something similar, only to be killed by dragonfire and accidentally lighting the catches.
    3. Intentionally as a last gambit against the WW. If the War for the Dawn goes really sideways, I could see Dany, as a last desperate measure, luring the Army of the Dead into KL, usign the massive population as bait, only for her to light the catches, killing the populace but also the Army of the Dead.

So which one do you think it will be?

 

Almost certainly Dany.

George has consistently framed the character as an absolute power corrupts archetype. Plus it’s called A Song of Ice and Fire. Dany represents an extreme and George’s Endgame is elevating the middle ground. So Dany has to do something bad to validate that. Plus you’ve already brought up Rhaenyra and I’d also add Maegor especially as characters whose story is intended to foreshadow Danys path. Although IMO George has had to create contrived and absurd situations to push the character into being a monster; especially in Dance.

Regarding your three ways:

1) They won’t for the same reason it was deliberate on the show. If it’s an accident then she can’t really be blamed and certainly not if we’re looking for an excuse for the Starks to kill her so Bran can be King. The whole reason Dany burns the city down is so she can be blamed for it. I think George will provide a moral justification to validate the Starks. So it won’t be an accident. At best he will make it ambivalent and leave both characters and us guessing about how much Dany knew and how reckless. Not sure that would make a better story.

2) I am not sure George would one for one recreate that situation specifically. I agree he will want to set the common people against Dany. Because obviously the beautiful fey Queen coming to save them from the Undead would be met with revulsion and hatred. Seems the Smallfolk do care about the games of the high Lords all of a sudden. I think it’s more likely that the populace will clearly be shown to support Aegon and flock to his banner. So Dany comes to see them as the enemy who become subject to her wrath. I do think George will manage that better than the show for what it’s worth. You see this when Dany crucified the masters. This is a wrathful character who feels a righteousness at destroying those she believes to be evil and can do so impulsively in the moment. George wants to put the people of Westeros in her crosshairs; even if the reasoning is dumb and absurd IMO. I think a conventional assault of the city is more likely.

3) I think the final battle will be at Harrenhall by the Eye of the Gods.

You couldn’t blame Dany for doing that though. If they were in city then already dead. That wouldn’t provide enough justification to betray Dany since she would be presented with no other choice. I think George really wants to push the idea that Dany chooses power over her better nature. That he believes that’s peeling away a vineer whereas his stoic Starks can withstand the punishment and remain true to their core values because they don’t want power.

Also. I don’t think Dany will have such a pivotal role in defeating the Others. She has very few chapters when set against the volumes of Tyrion and especially the Stark block. Because it’s the Stark story they are probably essential. Indeed if the Starks are to be propelled to power it can’t be Dany who saves the world since they need that moral capital. Could George play with the idea that the Starks take all the credit for Danys win. I don’t think so. I think he wants to pull the rug out from under Dany as she has all these titles and has been held up to the reader as the prophesies Chosen one. To be actually just an incidental footnote in the final battle would be a subversion I could see George doing. Possibly contributing to her state of mind.

 

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There is one significant problem with the "Dany uses wildfire to destroy Kings Landing" prediction, and that is that Dany has dragons. If she wanted to intentionally destroy Kings Landing, she doesn't need wildfire to do it. So it isn't going to be Dany who ignites the wildfire, unless it is unintentional.

We already have a woman in Kings Landing with the means, power and motive to ignite the wildfire caches, and that is Cersie. Unless we are specifically given new information that undermines what we know now, it seems pretty clear that Cersie is the one being set up to burn Kings Landing.

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4 minutes ago, Nathan Stark said:

There is one significant problem with the "Dany uses wildfire to destroy Kings Landing" prediction, and that is that Dany has dragons. If she wanted to intentionally destroy Kings Landing, she doesn't need wildfire to do it. So it isn't going to be Dany who ignites the wildfire, unless it is unintentional.

:agree:

You don´t need wildfire if you have 3 portable nukes.

If it´s Dany, it´s going to be by accident.

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2 hours ago, Nathan Stark said:

There is one significant problem with the "Dany uses wildfire to destroy Kings Landing" prediction, and that is that Dany has dragons. If she wanted to intentionally destroy Kings Landing, she doesn't need wildfire to do it.

Thematically it makes more sense for Dany. Wildfire is her fathers legacy, and King’s Landing is her ancestors city. Wildfire is even said to become more powerful when Dany hatched the dragons. Cersei had nothing to do with ANY of that. I think the wildfire is just there to make it even worse, like some next level Valyrian Doom hellscape, that Dany starts.

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4 minutes ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Thematically it makes more sense for Dany. Wildfire is her fathers legacy, and King’s Landing is her ancestors city. Wildfire is even said to become more powerful when Dany hatched the dragons. Cersei had nothing to do with ANY of that. I think the wildfire is just there to make it even worse, like some next level Valyrian Doom hellscape, that Dany starts.

No it doesn't make sense for Dany at all. She has dragons. She doesn't need wildfire to burn people alive. Meanwhile, we have both Tyrion and Jaime both noting their sister's increasing fascination with the stuff. Cersie even uses wildfire to burn down the tower of the Hand.

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54 minutes ago, Nathan Stark said:

No it doesn't make sense for Dany at all. She has dragons. She doesn't need wildfire to burn people alive. Meanwhile, we have both Tyrion and Jaime both noting their sister's increasing fascination with the stuff. Cersie even uses wildfire to burn down the tower of the Hand.

Cersei burns the Tower because she doesn't like the fact that it's where her father died, not because she's looking to destroy the city. In fact I think Cersei loves ruling too much to destroy the whole thing. She wants to have something to rule over, to prove that she's just as good as Tywin. Dany however follows the Dothraki and Ironborn way - destroy and don't plant trees.  Conquer and move on. Fire and blood. Wildfire is hotter than dragonfire so would help Dany do the "job" faster. And King's Landing+wildfire is thematically connected to her legacy, her house, her decision to hatch dragons. One reason why Dany lives in exile is because of the stuff.

Edited by Rose of Red Lake

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Cersei burns the Tower because she doesn't like the fact that it's where her father died, not because she's looking to destroy the city. In fact I think Cersei loves ruling too much to destroy the whole thing. She wants to have something to rule over, to prove that she's just as good as Tywin. Dany however follows the Dothraki and Ironborn way - destroy and don't plant trees. Conquer and move on. Fire and blood. Wildfire is hotter than dragonfire so would help Dany do the "job" faster. And King's Landing+wildfire is thematically connected to her legacy, herhouse, her decision to hatch dragons. One reason why Dany lives in exile is because of the stuff.

Cersei burns the tower to prove that she, Cersei, is powerful, has wildfire, and can remove a symbol of authority at her leisure. She doesn't even like her father that much it seems, since she keeps insisting to herself that she will be greater than him. You keep trying to compare Danaerys to Donald Trump, but no. It's Cersei. Cersei is the one with the narcissistic impulse to to gain power for herself only and to punish her enemies, and who surrounds herself with lickspittles and yes men. Dany has people who give her good advice to which she takes time to listen, even if she decides not to follow it. Cersei doesn't want to hear good advice. She wants to hear obsequious praise and protestations of fealty. And she also has wildfire.

Dany has no connection to Kings Landing beyond heritage, and you think that's enough for Dany to go to all the trouble of searching out staches of wildfire in obscure parts of a city she's never even been to in order to burn the whole place down? For reasons? When she could simply have one of her dragons burn it all down, without the hassle of looking for all that other stuff that she doesn't need anyway? That seems an unnecesarily convoluted way to bring about Kings Landing's destruction.

Cersei, on the other hand, really is a self-destructive narcissist with a "if I go down, I'm taking everybody with me" mentality. She has already demonstrated more than enough capacity for cruelty towards those who serve under her, and she feels threatened and humiliated by any number of people in Kings Landing, including everyone who witnessed her walk of shame. Why would Cersei burn down Kings Landing you ask? Why wouldn't she? Yes, she wants to rule, and she will continue to do everything she can do to hold the city in order to rule. But if ruling from King's Landing becomes untenable, Cersei will still never ever leave. She will burn it in a final act of vindictive, petty cruelty for letting her down, for not loving her enough, for daring to humiliate her. Because Cersei Lannister is a narcissist, and when narcissists go down, they do everything they can to hurt as many people as they can in the process.

So yeah. Dany isn't the one who will burn Kings Landing with wildfire. Her connections to the city and the substance are tenous at best. Cersei is the person who has the means, power, motive and temperment to order the wildfire ignited. It will be Cersei, or I'll eat a Frey pie.

Edited by Nathan Stark

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Until now - besides Jaime - only Brienne knows what a king’s power, any king’s power, really is based on.

Wildfire is stark symbol of the unbalanced power a monarch wields and Jaime‘s kingslaying should be regarded as pretty imperfect as long the king’s secret is kept.

Now Brienne is with an outlaw band whose members, very much like herself, bear a certain authority to act in a king’s name: Ned installed the BwB to keep the king’s peace during Robert‘s reign; Jaime provided Brienne with a letter stating she is doing Tommen‘s business. Who says they will bow to a monarch out of succession, especially if it means more war?

From smallfolk‘s perspective the Riverlands already have enough problems without a Targaryen restauration under Prince Aegon - the biggest problem being winter.

R‘llor gains further appeal under given conditions, especially if the Faith plays along with the political scheme.

I think Brienne in the end serves the brotherhood Jaime‘s head - even if not in the expected way. Isolated from their commander the Lannister army is likely leaving Riverrun soon which then might serve as new headquarters and a few coordinated explosions in King’s Landing could make it useless as the new king’s capital.

As the Jeanne d‘Arc figure of the series Brienne will have her burning (with a twist). Innocence and knowing the key to half a million peoples death isn’t that compatible.

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13 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Are you doing Amazon reviews of people's comments? :blink:

:lol:

Kind of, yeah. Bored. If free nothing interesting. If interesting, not free 

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7 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Plus it’s called A Song of Ice and Fire. Dany represents an extreme and George’s Endgame is elevating the middle ground. So Dany has to do something bad to validate that. Plus you’ve already brought up Rhaenyra and I’d also add Maegor especially as characters whose story is intended to foreshadow Danys path. Although IMO George has had to create contrived and absurd situations to push the character into being a monster; especially in Dance.

Yeah, that's a problem in the story. If it's the song of Ice and Fire there should be a balance, but however bad Dany gets, she'd still be way better then the literal apocalypse. And for it to even be a comparison it would have to get a bit contrived. Like I'd get the commons loving Aegon and hating her for usurping him, even though as you said, the commons don't give that much of a shit as long as they're fed and safe, but I get the feeling that GRRM will have to go for even more, like Dany wildfiring everything, which yeah, does feel a bit contrived

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53 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yeah, that's a problem in the story. If it's the song of Ice and Fire there should be a balance, but however bad Dany gets, she'd still be way better then the literal apocalypse. And for it to even be a comparison it would have to get a bit contrived. Like I'd get the commons loving Aegon and hating her for usurping him, even though as you said, the commons don't give that much of a shit as long as they're fed and safe, but I get the feeling that GRRM will have to go for even more, like Dany wildfiring everything, which yeah, does feel a bit contrived

 

I think George is going to make her a Genghis Khan style figure. Which would make her destructiveness indistinguishable from the Others. It won’t be her first rodeo burning Kings Landing. I suspect ADWD and her pacifism is intended to sharply contrast with her later actions. Plus it ties into Danys extreme poles mindset. Either I am planting trees or Iam a dragon who burns them. Joncon kind of breaks the whole middle ground thing down when he’s chatting with Aegon in one of the chapters. 

 

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7 hours ago, Nathan Stark said:

Cersei burns the tower to prove that she, Cersei, is powerful, has wildfire, and can remove a symbol of authority at her leisure. She doesn't even like her father that much it seems, since she keeps insisting to herself that she will be greater than him. You keep trying to compare Danaerys to Donald Trump, but no. It's Cersei. Cersei is the one with the narcissistic impulse to to gain power for herself only and to punish her enemies, and who surrounds herself with lickspittles and yes men. Dany has people who give her good advice to which she takes time to listen, even if she decides not to follow it. Cersei doesn't want to hear good advice. She wants to hear obsequious praise and protestations of fealty. And she also has wildfire.

Dany has no connection to Kings Landing beyond heritage, and you think that's enough for Dany to go to all the trouble of searching out staches of wildfire in obscure parts of a city she's never even been to in order to burn the whole place down? For reasons? When she could simply have one of her dragons burn it all down, without the hassle of looking for all that other stuff that she doesn't need anyway? That seems an unnecesarily convoluted way to bring about Kings Landing's destruction.

Cersei, on the other hand, really is a self-destructive narcissist with a "if I go down, I'm taking everybody with me" mentality. She has already demonstrated more than enough capacity for cruelty towards those who serve under her, and she feels threatened and humiliated by any number of people in Kings Landing, including everyone who witnessed her walk of shame. Why would Cersei burn down Kings Landing you ask? Why wouldn't she? Yes, she wants to rule, and she will continue to do everything she can do to hold the city in order to rule. But if ruling from King's Landing becomes untenable, Cersei will still never ever leave. She will burn it in a final act of vindictive, petty cruelty for letting her down, for not loving her enough, for daring to humiliate her. Because Cersei Lannister is a narcissist, and when narcissists go down, they do everything they can to hurt as many people as they can in the process.

So yeah. Dany isn't the one who will burn Kings Landing with wildfire. Her connections to the city and the substance are tenous at best. Cersei is the person who has the means, power, motive and temperment to order the wildfire ignited. It will be Cersei, or I'll eat a Frey pie.

I agree with all you of what you are saying, but I think you are not considering character growth. When Jaime lost his sword hand, his prime source of power, he broke and became stronger in other ways. So it follows that when Cersei looses her source of power (her beauty), she's forced to use different tactics. I think we might be in for a smarter Cersei.

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23 hours ago, Rondo said:

The FM would love that.  Half a million people sent to their deaths.  They have a tool in Arya to do the deed.  

What makes Arya even more dangerous is because she is out of control.  She's acting on her own sick motivations.  There's nothing to moderate her reactions.  She learned how to kill from the faceless men and that is all. Burning a city is not going to upset her conscience. 

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17 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

I agree with all you of what you are saying, but I think you are not considering character growth. When Jaime lost his sword hand, his prime source of power, he broke and became stronger in other ways. So it follows that when Cersei looses her source of power (her beauty), she's forced to use different tactics. I think we might be in for a smarter Cersei.

That is an oxymoron. Cersei is narcissistic and paranoid those things don't go well with smart.

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On 12/7/2020 at 6:49 PM, Wolf's Bane said:

Arya Stark.  Arya Stark will detonate the wildfire.  She's just crazy enough and angry enough to do it.  All hell will break loose when she learns of her beloved Jon getting killed by his own Night's Watch men.  She will sling blame all over the place and in her despair, take her anger out on as many people she can.   

Arya Stark has the motivation.  Her fragile sanity will be pushed over the edge after what happened to Jon Snow.  I could see Arya Stark burning KL.  She is the most probably person to do it.  

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