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NBA - What the hell is going on?


Red Tiger

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26 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sure people say crazy shit on the internet, but you keep acting like I'm saying "some randos" on the interwebs had an opinion and that makes the thought valid. I have not done that it all. Pointing to professional writers and commentators who probably know more about sports than you or I is not like Trump using the rhetorical tool of "people are saying." 

You're creating a demonstrably false narrative.  Deal with it however you'd like.

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1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The competitiveness and suspense of this post season has greatly exceeded my expectations. My fears of lopsided blowouts haven't materialized thankfully.

And still, two more great conference series to go yet

I'm skeptical of how great the conference series will be.  If Paul comes back, I can easily imagine the Suns winning in 5.  We'll find out how much of Atlanta advancing was the 76ers being a flawed team and how much was just Atlanta being a good team playing much better with a midseason new coach.  Obivously some of both, but I think it is more the 76ers being weak, and that Milwaukee will make relatively short work of them. 

That said, I would enjoy the hell out of a Bucks-Sun series, as both of those teams are in the bottom half of the league in terms of prestige and market share, so it's great to see new faces.  Plus I love the idea of Giannis and Paul fighting for a ring with both of them knowing they might* not make the Finals again. 

* Obviously nothing is certain and Giannis in particular will get a lot more chances.  But plenty of great players got just one Finals appearance (Iverson, Barkley, Ewing, Westbrook), so these guys will take nothing for granted. 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

I'm skeptical of how great the conference series will be.  If Paul comes back, I can easily imagine the Suns winning in 5.  We'll find out how much of Atlanta advancing was the 76ers being a flawed team and how much was just Atlanta being a good team playing much better with a midseason new coach.  Obviously some of both, but I think it is more the 76ers being weak, and that Milwaukee will make relatively short work of them. 

While I do tend to agree that the Bucks will likely overwhelm through sheer talent, they left a lot to be desired in the series with the Nets from what I watched. I'm going to have to see some coaching adjustments particularly on offense to take them truly seriously.

 

Also, Durant and Harden are playing in the Olympics this summer. I don't know how it works contractually, but I would not let Durant and Harden play in the Olympics if I'm the Nets given their recent injuries. I don't care if there's still a month until the Olympics and there's a full offseason, the risk/reward is just not worth it especially since both of them have 2 gold medals.

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5 hours ago, WarGalley said:

While I do tend to agree that the Bucks will likely overwhelm through sheer talent, they left a lot to be desired in the series with the Nets from what I watched. I'm going to have to see some coaching adjustments particularly on offense to take them truly seriously.

Yeah, we'll see.  The Nets, even with a hobbled Harden and no Irving, still offer more challenges than Atlanta can. 

I will go on record that my prediction is Suns and Bucks advance, and neither of them is pushed to 7.  Atlanta or LAC can steal a game (maybe two?) just because they have a hot shooting night, but not more than that. 

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I'll go a step further and say, assuming CP3 is healthy and there are no major injuries, that the Bucks will be lucky to get two wins against the Suns. Ayton can't stop Giannis, but he will give him problems, the Suns' backcourt is a lot better than the Bucks' and their role players are even more of a mismatch.

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Yeah, the Hawks benefited from Simmons collapse in confidence and also massive blown leads from the Sixers. As far as the Bucks-Hawks series go, I think it just comes down to whether they can slow Giannis or not. As much as the Hawks (with their own injuries) struggled against a limited Sixers team, I think that its three consecutive seasons that the Bucks supporting cast looked good in the regular season only to disappoint in the post season. If, you told me before the Nets series that Irving and Harden would be injured, I would have predicted a comfortable win for the Bucks. Instead, they limped to victory in game seven by virtue of Durant's toe.

The Sun-Clippers series is just the wistful CP3 or Kawhi watch depending on who wins. Both teams have a ready made excuse for themselves.

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I think that the Suns are better equipped to play without Paul than the Clippers are without Leonard.  The Suns still have two young stars in Booker and Ayton.  Who is the second best player on the Clippers?  I don't even know.  They'll shoot a lot of threes which means on good shooting nights they'll stay close and/or win, but that isn't enough to keep a series competitive. 

As for a Bucks-Suns Final, I think we should just hold off.  So much has changed round to round in this playoffs, we could yet have another injury twist left in store. 

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10 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Wonder what odds you could have got for a potential Atlanta v Pheonix Final at start of the season. 

It would be a fantastic sum (+50,000 or something).  That said, I don't think that will happen.  Bucks-Suns would have still paid out quite a lot. 

Even at the start of the playoffs, if you put $100 on the Bucks, Clippers, Hawks and Suns to win a championship, you'd be looking at a big payday no matter what.  The two favorites were the Nets(+250) and Lakers (+400).  The Clippers were +500, the Bucks +800.  Phoenix and Atlanta barely registered at +1800 and +10,000 respectively. 

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4 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

If you want to gamble, you can bet on the order of draft lottery picks? I think that they're doing the lottery today.

If the long held notion that the NBA rigs the lottery is true, bet on Toronto to get the #1 pick.

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18 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

+50,000 means you bet 100 you get 50,000? So 500/1 in UK odds? 

yes.  I just made that +50,000 number up.  For an exacta of the two finals teams (and to have them be two long shots like that) it could easily be more.  In contrast, if you'd gotten the odds on Bucks-Clippers, it probably would be a more reasonable +2500 or something. 

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15 minutes ago, Slurktan said:

If the long held notion that the NBA rigs the lottery is true, bet on Toronto to get the #1 pick.

That notion has taken some hits this decade, IMO (really ever since New Orleans won the rights to Anthony Davis).  Several times the winner has not been the team the NBA would have preferred at all.  I think a more plausible theory would be that the NBA rigs it occasionally (Ewing to Knicks, Davis to Pelicans, maybe Lebron to Cavs), but most years just lets the balls bounce wherever they may.

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7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

That notion has taken some hits this decade, IMO (really ever since New Orleans won the rights to Anthony Davis).  Several times the winner has not been the team the NBA would have preferred at all.  I think a more plausible theory would be that the NBA rigs it occasionally (Ewing to Knicks, Davis to Pelicans, maybe Lebron to Cavs), but most years just lets the balls bounce wherever they may.

Yeah but this is one of those years given that Toronto hasn't played a home game in 15 months.

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