Aussies and NZers: Jabs, Jobs and (grounded) Jets

[Paxter]

I’m not sure I see Australia’s relatively open border staying this way for much longer. ScoMo got way too much pay off from closing the border last time.

Israel has already closed its border for a couple of weeks.

[karaddin]

I'd really like them to have a bit more chill about a new variant until there's actually some solid evidence its an elevated threat compared to delta. It half feels like the premiers are champing at the bit to close state borders again right before Christmas after everyone finally thought they could go see their families.

ETA: Obviously not Dom though lol

[Wall Flower]

1 hour ago, karaddin said:

I'd really like them to have a bit more chill about a new variant until there's actually some solid evidence its an elevated threat compared to delta. It half feels like the premiers are champing at the bit to close state borders again right before Christmas after everyone finally thought they could go see their families.

ETA: Obviously not Dom though lol

I have mixed feelings about this, being in Canberra. A wait and see approach might mean that Omicron has already spread widely before the risks associated with the variant are confirmed one way or the other. It's already in Sydney but it's a different risk profile for states like WA, TA, SA or QLD who don't have any COVID 19 cases at all.

[The Anti-Targ]

Have people not learned from delta? If omicron turns out to be bad news will people be trying to forgive politicians and policy makers for soft pedaling because "they didn't know". Delta should have taught us that when a strain pops its head up in several countries around the world in a relatively short space of time, the places where it isn't should be taking steps to keep it out until more is known. What you don't do is say we'll let it do its thing until we know more.

Govts and policymakers underestimated the OG virus, then they underestimated delta, now people seem to be suggesting omicron be also possibly underestimated because it appeared at an inconvenient time of year. I would rather do too much and be wrong than do too little and be wrong.

[Paxter]

Yup tricky stuff. I find myself agreeing with both Karaddin and Anti-Targ despite the differing views.

[The Anti-Targ]

Just 5 (out of 20) health areas still under 90% for first dose, representing a population base of 380K people and with a combined total of about 12,500 people left to get to 90%. the vast majority of those left to get vaccinated to reach 90% are in Northland with 7,500 to go.

[karaddin]

3 hours ago, Paxter said:

Yup tricky stuff. I find myself agreeing with both Karaddin and Anti-Targ despite the differing views.

To me it just comes down to the reality of people. Perhaps it's a different story in places that haven't done the long lockdowns, but my impression is that in NSW and especially Vic people are at the breaking point where attempting to force heavy restrictions again will just result in the collapse of public support for them. 

This pandemic has been going on basically 2 years now, we are in the middle of opening back up and people are starting to see their loved ones again after a length of isolation that's genuinely psychologically harmful. Especially for those that need to travel to see their families. People have been booking said travel to see their families for the holiday period, and slamming borders closed again will disrupt all of this travel. This is harmful in and of itself, which is the primary cost I'm most worried about.

That said it's not the only harm, I'm far from a conservative but there are a lot of businesses that have managed to hang on until now that will be fucked if we close back up and there's no longer any intent from the government to support them. Public trust in being able to travel even interstate is already severely damaged and cancelling it again will permanently damage this trust, especially if it includes hanging your own residents out to dry again like Victoria did to residents who had been on holidays in NSW.

And that's not even getting started on the way it would drive an even bigger wedge into our political divides and the fracturing of our states.

In an isolated system of course you'd err on the side of keeping the virus out, but it's not an isolated system. It's not a simple system and there's no option that carries zero harm. So I want to see evidence that omnicron is more dangerous than delta - IE one of 1) more transmissible with the same risk of serious illness and death, 2) higher risk of illness or death, or 3) significantly better at infection in vaccinated people - before we choose to inflict the other harms on ourselves. Simply being competitive with delta in terms of transmissibility doesn't mean it's a bigger risk if the illness it causes is less likely to be severe, or even just the same level.

Obviously I'm coming at this from the perspective of a city where elimination is no longer possible, so delta in the community is a given and the variables change somewhat where this isn't the case, but the interstate borders still carry a lot of the harms I'm talking about - just a higher potential upside.

ETA: Whoops forgot to loop back around to my first point. When you're at the point of risking permanent damage to public support for, and compliance with, health measures and we don't have that clear sign of higher danger then I think it's safer to preserve the public trust and support. Then if the evidence comes along you've got a much better case to get the public on board, whereas if you've already broken public buy in then the evidence isn't going to get the genie back in the bottle. It becomes a harm reduction dynamic.

[ithanos]

A couple work colleagues have already booked holidays this Christmas/New Year period, one to Nadi and the other to Phuket. I, for one, am committed to travelling domestically to help the local economy and by domestically I mean within the NSW border, for now. Picked up a 6month NSW Trainlink pass for regional travel on trains and coaches within the NSW regional network. The pass does allow for travel to Canberra, Melbourne and Brisbane but I'm not going to risk the wind changing and getting caught on the wrong side of the border so I pulled up Google Maps and threw a mental dart to rural NSW with the commitment to visit the first location that comes up - and ended up with Wagga Wagga. Hmmm, OK, where have I heard of this place recently. And now Omicron is in state.

 

[Paxter]

Some big names falling for the Coalition this week: Hunt, Porter…and now perhaps Tudge?

[Jeor]

I'm betting this "Gladys for Federal parliament" push will fizzle out. There's nothing in it for her and considerable danger while ICAC is still yet to deliver it's final recommendations and findings. She can afford to bide her time and wait a few years (when the election cycle is more in favour of Coalition government - they are on the nose in this election). I'm sure she wouldn't mind a break from public life at the moment anyway.

[Skyrazer]

15 minutes ago, Jeor said:

I'm betting this "Gladys for Federal parliament" push will fizzle out. There's nothing in it for her and considerable danger while ICAC is still yet to deliver it's final recommendations and findings. She can afford to bide her time and wait a few years (when the election cycle is more in favour of Coalition government - they are on the nose in this election). I'm sure she wouldn't mind a break from public life at the moment anyway.

Yeah looks like it's a fizzer.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-08/scott-morrison-attempt-gladys-berejiklian-federal-politics-fail/100684098

ScoMo is desperate to get more women in I suppose.

[Makk]

The nz government has announced it intends to make smoking illegal for anyone who born after 2009. So eventually no one will be allowed to purchase cigarettes. 

I'm not entirely sure what to think about this. It is an unusual policy to discriminate based on the birth date and the number of smokers was dropping pretty quickly anyway. I also don't really like the government telling people what to do but I will be pretty happy to see the end of smoking. Will save many people dieing prematurely and a lot of people who can't afford to smoke a lot of money.

[The Anti-Targ]

I don't really agree with the legislation. Indeed I don't really agree with treating any addictive harmful drug differently to any other simply on the basis of some being an historic cultural norm and others not. In my view all currently illegal drugs should be de-criminalised and addiction or other dangerous use treated as a health issue*, and all currently legal, socially harmful drugs should be decommercialised (yes I mean alcohol and tobacco). That is to say the commercial production, import and sale of tobacco and alcohol should be illegal. But personal consumption, production for personal use, and bringing in personal quantities as personal baggage from overseas is not subject to sanction or confiscation.And addiction is treated as a health issue like it is for the other drugs.

I also think it's hypocritical in the extreme for govts to be demonising tobacco and pretty much giving alcohol a pass, when it does way more social harm than tobacco. I hate smoking and will be glad to see it gone, one day. But most country's attitudes and use patterns of alcohol are far worse, and no one even thinks about doing anything serious about it.

Much better news it the unanimous passing of the law that allows trans, non-binary etc people to change their birth certificates. Now that's a law I can get behind.

*Though if the dangerous use leads to criminal behaviour then that should be prosecuted as usual.

[Paxter]

6 hours ago, Makk said:

The nz government has announced it intends to make smoking illegal for anyone who born after 2009. So eventually no one will be allowed to purchase cigarettes. 

I'm not entirely sure what to think about this. It is an unusual policy to discriminate based on the birth date and the number of smokers was dropping pretty quickly anyway. I also don't really like the government telling people what to do but I will be pretty happy to see the end of smoking. Will save many people dieing prematurely and a lot of people who can't afford to smoke a lot of money.

That is jaw-droppingly stupid. 

Speaking of which...I think Perignon is about to make a material misstep in NSW. Now is not the time to be removing restrictions (e.g. scrapping mask-wearing) for the sake of "hope and optimism". Even BoJo is sensibly restoring mask mandates!

[felice]

10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I also think it's hypocritical in the extreme for govts to be demonising tobacco and pretty much giving alcohol a pass, when it does way more social harm than tobacco.

Passive smoking is a rather bigger problem than passive drinking, and I'm under the impression that alcohol in moderation is much less detrimental to your health than tobacco. The indirect social effects of excessive alcohol consumption are certainly a major problem, and it is a serious health concern for some people, but I think there are legitimate reasons for treating alcohol and tobacco differently.

[The Anti-Targ]

5 minutes ago, felice said:

Passive smoking is a rather bigger problem than passive drinking, and I'm under the impression that alcohol in moderation is much less detrimental to your health than tobacco. The indirect social effects of excessive alcohol consumption are certainly a major problem, and it is a serious health concern for some people, but I think there are legitimate reasons for treating alcohol and tobacco differently.

Depends what you mean by passive. Harms done to people who haven't drunk alcohol because of someone else's drinking should be seen in the same light as harms done to people who've breathed in someone else's smoke who are not smokers. Harm is harm. The main difference is usually the alcohol harm is acute whereas the tobacco harm is chronic. So there is a lot of "passive drinking" if you consider it from the perspective of harm done to non-consumers. The other difference is often those who suffer from passive drinking are usually also active drinkers as well, just not in the instance they have suffered harm from other people drinking.

The approaches taken to passive drinking and passive smoking need to necessarily be different. But the strength of action should be the same.

Ultimately harm to the individual from personal choice should rarely dictate pubic policy. Social harm / benefit and social cost are what should drive public policy. Taxation is one way to deal with the cost side, but it rarely deals with the social harm. 

There is also increasing evidence that moderate drinking is more individually harmful than people realise. A lot of people don't even know alcohol is carcinogenic,or that it is a risk factor for some of the most publicly talked about cancers. The chronic health effect of "moderate" use is not widely understood, nor has there been much attempt at public education about it. I wonder why?

[Skyrazer]

I wonder if much of a black market will grow if NZ goes ahead with this.

Does seem though that the ratio of smokers gets smaller and smaller with each passing generation. Most smokers I see are usually older and it's rare to see a smoker in their 20s for instance.

[The Anti-Targ]

Anti-vaxxers becoming increasingly militant hereabouts. May well end up with some actual violence at some point. There has already been anti-vax vandalism in a few places.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300477196/dunedin-nurse-referred-to-nursing-council-over-online-threats-to-attack-vaccination-buses

Quote

A Dunedin nurse has been referred to a professional conduct committee by the Nursing Council after posting threats online against medical professionals involved in the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out.

Multiple agencies are investigating after the registered Dunedin nurse posted a video to social media declaring war against Covid-19 vaccinators and calling medical professionals taking part in the vaccine roll-out her enemies.

 

[Stubby]

4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Anti-vaxxers becoming increasingly militant hereabouts. May well end up with some actual violence at some point. There has already been anti-vax vandalism in a few places.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300477196/dunedin-nurse-referred-to-nursing-council-over-online-threats-to-attack-vaccination-buses

 

State Daddy (otherwise known as Premier McGowan) had to close his electorate office due to credible threats of violence by antivaxxers over here. People have been charged for their threats.

[The Anti-Targ]

We're always a couple of steps behind Australia.