Covid-19 #40: Hoping for Endings

[Zorral]

6 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Infection numbers are as high as they were 11 months ago now in Austria. Also available ICU bed numbers are increasing again.. that is not a good sign because last time that meant they were canceling "elective" stuff like "non-urgent" brain surgery. 

Also numbers like this -- just in time for the Stupid USA YAY to open it's borders for tourists from everywhere plus even more stupid NYC mayor putting up big commercials and adverts begging Europeans and Asians to come to NYC.  Argh.

 

Quote

 

UK reports 43,941 new cases and 207 further deaths

The UK recorded 43,941 new Covid-19 cases Wednesday and 207 more people have died within 28 days of a positive test, official figures show.

Today’s numbers represent a slight uptick in cases since yesterday, when 40,954 new infections were reported.

Cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue to steadily rise across the UK, but leaked documents from Treasury have warned that enacting the government’s ‘Plan B’ proposal to curb the spread of the virus could cost the economy £18bn.

 

 

[BigFatCoward]

Re the above The 7 day average for cases is actually going down slightly, but it is up for deaths and hospital admissions which obviously is the more important statistic.

 

[Padraig]

Novavax finally applied for approval in the UK.  We'll see how long approval takes now.  Maybe its main issues are with its US plants and it is ok otherwise, since it is saying it will apply for approval elsewhere.

Quote

Novavax said it now expects to complete additional regulatory filings in markets including Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and to the World Health Organization soon.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/novavax-files-covid-19-vaccines-uk-authorization-2021-10-27/

Its main benefits are to low and middle income countries.  It would be good if things start improving on that side of things.  The US is donating Moderna doses to Africa.  Some will even arrive in 2021.  Not huge volumes but it is something.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/exclusive-african-union-buy-up-110-million-moderna-covid-19-vaccines-officials-2021-10-26/

Biontech is going to build a factory in Africa, which is good.  But years away from actual production.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/eu-hopes-to-head-off-criticism-after-biontech-announces-first-african-covid-vaccine-site/

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Re the above The 7 day average for cases is actually going down slightly, but it is up for deaths and hospital admissions which obviously is the more important statistic.

 

If you discount the peak that happened the day after freedom day, there have been 2 peaks since then. I believe they are associated with schools returning after the summer holidays. It will be interesting to see whether heading into winter will cause another peak and that this dip is just temporary. Or has the UK finally hit some kind of herd immunity level where case numbers will settle down to a much lower baseline?

Some people in jobs that require a vaccination don't want to get the vaccine, but they are not anti-vax, they are just scared of getting the jab (mostly because of the fear of side effects). So scared that they are willing to face losing their job because they can't get past the fear. These people are the victims of the anti-vax brigade and lack the capacity to properly assess risk. One of my friends wasn't going to get vaxed because she is scared of needles, however she decided being a teacher was more important than her fear of needles, so she got over her fear and got jabbed when the vaccination mandate was implemented for teachers. Some people are more enslaved by their fears to the extent it is probably going to ruin their lives, for a while at least. It's a shame to see that people who would probably have been willing to be vaccinated have been scared off by the spread of vaccine misinformation.

My friend with CFS reacted quite badly to the first jab, and I thought his specialist would advise against getting the second jab. But she just told him to get the second jab and have medication on hand in case he has a bad CFS response. His fear of vaccine side effects is real, and very likely, but he's doing it anyway because he really doesn't want to get the actual disease. Maybe increasing cases and some more deaths will help some of these people get over their fears. In this current outbreak we've only had 2 deaths, so people seem to be more afraid of the jab than they are of severed disease and death, because the disease is still not really hitting them at home. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

On 10/22/2021 at 1:08 AM, Which Tyler said:

https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/conservative-host-candace-owens-calls-for-us-to-invade-australia-to-free-people-from-tyranny/news-story/9a487acac0dbafefaa0945d2aa7284cc

By the time the fleet arrives the vaccination rate will have maxed out and protocols will be relaxed. Then the sailors will defect and Australia will have a shiny new navy. Win-win-win. 

I remember when Ann Coulter went of Fox News and suggested something similar after Canada decriminalized marijuana and legalized gay marriage. It never ends.

On 10/23/2021 at 10:26 PM, DireWolfSpirit said:

BBC reported Ontario having 83% vaccinated, I'm assuming that's 83% of the elgible. Seems pretty laudable.

I think the number for our county here in the U.S. is only about 50% for those eligible for vaccination. And our workers complain why they are forced to mask at work.

All signs are that the company will be enforcing mandatory shots if you want to keep your job very soon.

The ignorance is not even combatible when they are in denial to how these dots connect.

Our national average is also 82.8% for 12+ as of October 16. "At least 1 dose" is at 87.7%, which will probably be our ultimate vaccination rate. Things are slowing down here so I doubt we'll get much higher unless they start vaccinating 5-11 year olds. For those eligible, males aged 18-29 continue to be the cohort with the lowest vaccination rate (72.1%). Similarly aged females are 6.5%-age points higher. 

The United States has 58% fully vaxed and climbing, but that's for all ages. I don't know what the 12+ number is.

On 10/24/2021 at 9:29 AM, Paxter said:

Pretty good as you say, though actually lagging some other parts of the counrty. Quebec (the second-largest province by population) is at 86%. Saskatechwan, the most vaccine hesitant province, is at 76%. 

I am thinking Canada will eventually get around 95% of 12+s  vaccinated, as the effect of mandatory vaccinations is only just starting to hit. 

According to health Canada, Alberta is slightly behind Saskatchewan for 12+; but slightly ahead for all ages. Saskatchewan has more children under 12 I guess. I think your nation-wide 95% number is optimistic. I hope I'm wrong.

As for Alberta, there's good news and bad news. The good news is that our 4th wave has crested. ICU and non-ICU hospitalizations, infections, and positivity rates are all trending down. They're still high, but moving in the right direction. We now have over 3,000 dead and are adding to that number by about 10 per day and falling. If the idiots running our provincial government can avoid doing a victory lap before the end of the year we might be OK. 

The bad news is that our vaccinations have fallen off a cliff. We're at our lowest rate of first doses since August. So, Alberta:

86.7% of 12+ w/ at least one dose (73.8% total population)

79.2% of 12+ fully vaccinated (67.3% total population)

I'd confidently say that by the end of the year, 74% of the population of this province will be fully vaccinated. But that's it. That will leave about 0.5M (12+) and 1.2M (all ages) unvaccinated Albertans. Maybe it'll be enough. Maybe we'll have a 5th wave come January. 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

 

The United States has 58% fully vaxed and climbing, but that's for all ages. I don't know what the 12+ number is.

 

We're at 60% fully vaxxed for all ages, which equates to 72% of 12+. I think the USA might have similar age demographics to us, so I guess 58% equates to high 60s-low 70s for the 12+.

2 more cases in the South Island (Christchurch) today, both unvaxed, one potentially been wandering around for 2 weeks being infectious for some or all of that time. Brought in from Auckland, of course. It will be a minor miracle for this not to develop into a proper outbreak, which will be the first true outbreak in the South Island since March/April 2020.

[Xray the Enforcer]

16 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

I just can't imagine not cuddling my kids for 10 days. 

Edit, and my wife. Just in case she ever reads this. 

 for the edit.

But for real BFC I'm hoping for the very best for your whole family and that symptoms are mild for everyone. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

10 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

We're at 60% fully vaxxed for all ages, which equates to 72% of 12+. I think the USA might have similar age demographics to us, so I guess 58% equates to high 60s-low 70s for the 12+.

Yeah I looked that up today. 

Australia and New Zealand have overtaken the US and will likely overtake Canada in another month or so. I think you can be confident in reaching 90% for 12+ by the end of the year. Well done. 

Japan is also continuing their rock star trajectory. First doses have slowed a bit but you'd expect that given the level (77% of total pop.). I don't know what Japanese demographics look like but that's got to be around 90% for 12+. They've overtaken Norway in 2nd doses and will be breathing down Canada's neck soon. I think they seriously deserve international recognition for how they handled the pandemic.

I looked up the stats on Worldometers today and the situation in the United States is truly depressing. In Deaths/1M, New Jersey has been displaced by Alabama for 2nd and will very soon be displaced by Louisiana. New York might be overtaken by Arizona for 5th. Massachusetts and Rhode Island will soon be knocked out of the top ten by Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma etc.

If you look at where they were 6 months ago, with vaccinations ramped up, you'd say this scenario was totally impossible. Yet here we are. 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Holy shit. 

[Paxter]

4 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

By the time the fleet arrives the vaccination rate will have maxed out and protocols will be relaxed. Then the sailors will defect and Australia will have a shiny new navy. Win-win-win. 

I remember when Ann Coulter went of Fox News and suggested something similar after Canada decriminalized marijuana and legalized gay marriage. It never ends.

Our national average is also 82.8% for 12+ as of October 16. "At least 1 dose" is at 87.7%, which will probably be our ultimate vaccination rate. Things are slowing down here so I doubt we'll get much higher unless they start vaccinating 5-11 year olds. For those eligible, males aged 18-29 continue to be the cohort with the lowest vaccination rate (72.1%). Similarly aged females are 6.5%-age points higher. 

The United States has 58% fully vaxed and climbing, but that's for all ages. I don't know what the 12+ number is.

According to health Canada, Alberta is slightly behind Saskatchewan for 12+; but slightly ahead for all ages. Saskatchewan has more children under 12 I guess. I think your nation-wide 95% number is optimistic. I hope I'm wrong.

As for Alberta, there's good news and bad news. The good news is that our 4th wave has crested. ICU and non-ICU hospitalizations, infections, and positivity rates are all trending down. They're still high, but moving in the right direction. We now have over 3,000 dead and are adding to that number by about 10 per day and falling. If the idiots running our provincial government can avoid doing a victory lap before the end of the year we might be OK. 

The bad news is that our vaccinations have fallen off a cliff. We're at our lowest rate of first doses since August. So, Alberta:

86.7% of 12+ w/ at least one dose (73.8% total population)

79.2% of 12+ fully vaccinated (67.3% total population)

I'd confidently say that by the end of the year, 74% of the population of this province will be fully vaccinated. But that's it. That will leave about 0.5M (12+) and 1.2M (all ages) unvaccinated Albertans. Maybe it'll be enough. Maybe we'll have a 5th wave come January. 

You’re right, I stupidly trusted CTV for the SK data and for some reason the number is stuck on 79% of eligibles, which is incorrect. They are about a percentage point ahead of AB on that measure.

As for “at least one dose”, that number is climbing by around 0.10% every day and is quite steady. Don’t give up on getting well in excess of 90%. Especially with vaccine mandates now in play. I think we can do it. Quebec and the Maritimes are basically at 90 and will keep edging up. Hopefully most of the rest of the country follows.

No doubt a good number of younger children will be vaccinated soon too, which will boost the overall population number.

ETA: As for Australia, they have quite a bit of regional diversity that might cause a slowdown. My home state is down on 77% of eligibles, compared to 93% over in New South Wales. But overall they are kicking ass.

[The Anti-Targ]

I think most countries that don't have an outrageously large anti-vax cult will be able to get to 90% over all. But when you go down to individual regions / cities / states there will be places the just can't get there without adding the 5-11 cohort to the eligible population. I'm convinced that while it looks almost certain our nationwide number will hit 90% we won't get there in every region, at least not for a very long time. Adding the 5-11s pushes out the 90% number since it is adding a whole new sub-population, but the true measure of community protection is really the % of the total population vaxed and we can get to a total population target much more reliably in every region with the 5-11s included.

I think once the 5-11s are made eligible then we should move tot a total population measure rather than eligible, and be aiming for something like 80-85% of the total population. As things stand 90% of the current eligible population ~ 77% of the total population so adding the 5-11s and getting a decent response from parents should push us above 80% of the total population pretty quickly.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

44 minutes ago, Paxter said:

You’re right, I stupidly trusted CTV for the SK data and for some reason the number is stuck on 79% of eligibles, which is incorrect. They are about a percentage point ahead of AB on that measure.

As for “at least one dose”, that number is climbing by around 0.10% every day and is quite steady. Don’t give up on getting well in excess of 90%. Especially with vaccine mandates now in play. I think we can do it.

No doubt a good number of younger children will be vaccinated soon too, which will boost the overall population number.

Yeah, The "74%" number I stated is probably too pessimistic (that number assumes everybody who got their first dose shows up for their second), but I really can't see us getting north of 80% for the population as a whole. Too many idiots getting their information from facebook. I've seen a couple of Albertans claiming their Herman Cain award recently. 

If they implement vaccinations for children 5-11 years old, different story. Saskatchewan is looking at implementing that soon. I haven't kept track of their daily vaccination trends, but That suggests to me that they've exhausted willing candidates among the eligible population. 

[Padraig]

13 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Holy shit. 

Yup.  Romania is just crazy.  Worst in the world.  And a 21% positivity rate, so its clearly missing thousands of cases.

There actually has been an increase in the vaccination in response at least.  But 32% vaccinated is still really shocking.

Europe is even more extreme than the US.  So you can clearly see the countries with very poor vaccination rates and very high fatality rates.  While countries with reasonable vaccination rates have much better fatality rates.  The next few weeks will be very interesting to see how the best of the latter countries deal with the latest wave.  Cases have gone up but not to worrying levels, yet.

[Maithanet]

32 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Europe is even more extreme than the US.  So you can clearly see the countries with very poor vaccination rates and very high fatality rates.  While countries with reasonable vaccination rates have much better fatality rates.  The next few weeks will be very interesting to see how the best of the latter countries deal with the latest wave.  Cases have gone up but not to worrying levels, yet.

It's possible that we've reached the point (at least in parts of the world) that cases really aren't a relevant metric anymore.  Vaccination is mediocre at preventing cases, but excellent at preventing hospitalization.  So if cases in say, Portugal go up 5X but hospitalization goes up only slightly, that would mean they're entering the endemic phase relatively safely.  Provided they can stay vigilant with boosters, etc in the future, then (at least for Portugal) you could realistically start talking about the post-pandemic era. 

But if cases go up 5X and hospitalization is at or past full capacity, then that would be really bad, and it would mean that worldwide we still have a long, long way to go. 

[Paxter]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It's possible that we've reached the point (at least in parts of the world) that cases really aren't a relevant metric anymore.  Vaccination is mediocre at preventing cases, but excellent at preventing hospitalization.  So if cases in say, Portugal go up 5X but hospitalization goes up only slightly, that would mean they're entering the endemic phase relatively safely.  Provided they can stay vigilant with boosters, etc in the future, then (at least for Portugal) you could realistically start talking about the post-pandemic era. 

But if cases go up 5X and hospitalization is at or past full capacity, then that would be really bad, and it would mean that worldwide we still have a long, long way to go. 

I think the reality is that the decoupling that we were all hoping for has not occurred to the extent needed, which is why cases and non-vaccine related interventions are still relevant. Alberta is a good recent example of that.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

4 hours ago, Padraig said:

Yup.  Romania is just crazy.  Worst in the world.  And a 21% positivity rate, so its clearly missing thousands of cases.

There actually has been an increase in the vaccination in response at least.  But 32% vaccinated is still really shocking.

Europe is even more extreme than the US.  So you can clearly see the countries with very poor vaccination rates and very high fatality rates.  While countries with reasonable vaccination rates have much better fatality rates.  The next few weeks will be very interesting to see how the best of the latter countries deal with the latest wave.  Cases have gone up but not to worrying levels, yet.

It's better than nothing I guess. But in terms of reducing transmission, it might as well be nothing. There's a reason why New Zealand is targeting a 90% vaccination rate. 

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

It's possible that we've reached the point (at least in parts of the world) that cases really aren't a relevant metric anymore.  Vaccination is mediocre at preventing cases, but excellent at preventing hospitalization. 

I'm not sure.  This is the first real test of countries with very high vaccination rates and relatively low amounts of COVID.

What we have seen is that if you have decent vaccination rates but high levels of COVID, there is no great resistance.  People come into contact with COVID people too often to avoid getting sick, despite vaccination.

But places like Spain?  I wouldn't say I will be shocked if it has a serious wave but it is why i'm interested in seeing how it will perform.

Also, I don't think you can decouple cases from deaths.  More cases are always going to lead to more deaths.  What you can do is change the relationship.  Earlier in the year, 1.7% of people with a positive diagnoses died in Ireland.   Looking at the last 6 months, that is down to 0.3%. In the US, it has fallen from 1.9% to 1.2%.  Obviously, the lack of vaccinations is having a moderating effect there.  (Spain has gone from 1.8% to 0.6%).

I wouldn't say that is a perfect measure because it depends on how well countries are testing (and Delta is probably deadlier) but I think it gives a reasonable indication of what has changed.  New antiviral drugs, vaccination boosters, more treatments should all help too.  And they'll need to, because even with a 0.3% fatality rate, there is still a concerning number of people dying every day in Ireland.  (Spain may be at 0.6% but given far less cases, relatively speaking, the number of fatal cases for a country its size is actually as good as you can expect almost).

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

This is the first real test of countries with very high vaccination rates and relatively low amounts of COVID.

What we have seen is that if you have decent vaccination rates but high levels of COVID, there is no great resistance.  People come into contact with COVID people too often to avoid getting sick, despite vaccination.

Which is why I'm so fearing the opening of our borders to tourism from other countries.  Right now we see New York has a 'vaccination wall', and has all through the Delta surges elsewhere.  Plus, mandated masking on public transport, within bars and restaurants, and mandated vaccination to enter for indoor dining, theater, etc.  This has actually worked for us.

But within another two weeks after the tourists from elsewhere come? Because I have no faith whatsoever in anybody involved, just starting with airline companies themselves, in honestly being honest about authenticated vaccination and tests.

 

 

[Clueless Northman]

38 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Which is why I'm so fearing the opening of our borders to tourism from other countries.  Right now we see New York has a 'vaccination wall', and has all through the Delta surges elsewhere.  Plus, mandated masking on public transport, within bars and restaurants, and mandated vaccination to enter for indoor dining, theater, etc.  This has actually worked for us.

But within another two weeks after the tourists from elsewhere come? Because I have no faith whatsoever in anybody involved, just starting with airline companies themselves, in honestly being honest about authenticated vaccination and tests.

Vaccination is mandatory for indoor activities, or are tests taken into account? That's a crucial point. Tests are basically useless after a few hours, specially with Delta. You might allow people in theaters or restaurants if you test them at the door, but it's absolutely key that countries stop letting people in on the mere basis of a test, because this is bloody useless. Only vaccination status should matter in such cases - a limitation I expect Oz and NZ to apply when they finally let people in.

[Zorral]

33 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Vaccination is mandatory for indoor activities, or are tests taken into account? That's a crucial point. Tests are basically useless after a few hours, specially with Delta. You might allow people in theaters or restaurants if you test them at the door, but it's absolutely key that countries stop letting people in on the mere basis of a test, because this is bloody useless. Only vaccination status should matter in such cases - a limitation I expect Oz and NZ to apply when they finally let people in.

As I understand it, it is vaccination, not tests. Partner's been attending musical events -- EEEEEEEK!* -- and it's all vaccination proof that's required.

I've seen several times now our local refusing to seat customers indoors since they didn't have proof of vaccination.  Even me, one night, I'd gone with Partner and brought nothing with me -- the person at the door was new, didn't know us.  I ran back home to get my vax card.  I wasn't sorry or upset or anything, and certainly protested not at all. She was doing what she was supposed to do, and I was glad.  Still, we try to go early, before dinner crunch time, so that the place is essentially still empty.

~~~~~~~~~~~

The covid madness continues to escalate.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/american-airlines-flight-diverted-unruly-passenger-flight-attendant-mask/

Quote

 

....An American Airlines flight from New York to Orange County, California, outside Los Angeles, was diverted to Denver Wednesday after a passenger allegedly assaulted a female flight attendant. The carrier says it's "outraged."

Witnesses initially described it as a dispute over wearing a mask, but American Airlines said the incident was not mask-related. 

American says Flight 976 from John F. Kennedy International Airport to John Wayne Airport, in Santa Ana, was diverted "due to a passenger who physically assaulted a flight attendant. The aircraft landed safely and taxied to the gate, where law enforcement removed and apprehended the passenger."

....The flight attendant was taken to a local hospital, CBS L.A. reports. The Association of Professional Flight Attendants, the union representing American Airlines flight attendants, said the employee suffered broken bones to the face. 

American Airlines CEO Doug Parker called the incident "one of the worst displays of unruly behavior we've ever witnessed."....

* I am very concerned about this because the more one is in company with others, vaccinated or not, the more one's chances increase of break-through.  OTOH, to be able to be back at work, with one's colleagues, is also invaluable.  And I'll be teaching again f2f next week, with strict protocols in effect, but nevertheless.