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Is Stannis underestimating Ramsay


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sorry folks, I posted this earlier in the wrong forum, reposting here and will go back and delete the other.
 

Let me start off by saying I’m a Stannis supporter and hopeful he pulls through. I’ve read about various theories and some I love (the night lantern theory), some very interesting (stannis as future night king), and others I’m not so keen on. I may also be sadly influenced by the show result, but I believe there’s enough evidence on the written page to support the idea that Stannis will fail in the battle for Winterfell at some point though again, I’m hopeful he prevails.

though it’s in the Theon chapter of winds which for all we know will be revised and changed whenever we get the authentic one in hand, but as stannis roots out deception and betrayal in true OG style, Theon notes that he is underestimating Ramsay and Stannis seems just too dismissive of Ramsay’s threat, 

It seems to me that Stannis’ preparations will lead to defeat of the incoming Freys, likely salvaging the baggage train, hopefully coming to understanding snd uniting with the Manderly force, and more. However, in all of this, Ramsay seems to be someone written off. What will he do? He’s no match for Stannis openly, we see Ramsay’s impulsiveness and arrogance when he wants to attack Stannis outright before the Bolton’s and train head to Winterfell to marry F’Arya, but Roose scolds him and at the time of the end of Dance, Ramsay is in a different position. 
does anyone else feel this is a mistake by Stannis and he’s overlooking this threat and will pay for it, or there any indication he’s going to be ready not just for the Frey assault, but Ramsay’s likely ambush or deceptive strike? Where will it happen? What forces would he have to use?

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I just don't see the overarching story point of Ramsay beating Stannis. At this point we're up to the second last book in the series; the Boltons have been winning since the end of the second book. They've had their brief moment of glory, such as it is. They've served their story purpose well - destroying the Starks and fracturing the North - now it's time for their little story-arc to be concluded so the series can move on to greater things. Even Stannis acknowledges that the Boltons are just a sideshow to the real threat - the Others. If the Boltons win yet again, someone else is just going to have to come along fairly soon to defeat them. I simply can't see the Boltons playing a part in the final act of the series, i.e. the Long Night and/or Dany's invasion. They're a very "second act" type of villain, you know what I mean? They just give our heroes something to deal with between the big threats of act 1 (Lannisters) and act 3 (Others/Dany). 

I understand that all of my reasoning is purely meta, so take it with a grain of salt if you want. But Martin has said repeatedly that he's going to start culling superfluous characters and storylines as soon as Winds starts, and I think the Boltons will be high on that list.

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2 hours ago, Mad King Bolton said:

 

sorry folks, I posted this earlier in the wrong forum, reposting here and will go back and delete the other.
 

Let me start off by saying I’m a Stannis supporter and hopeful he pulls through. I’ve read about various theories and some I love (the night lantern theory), some very interesting (stannis as future night king), and others I’m not so keen on. I may also be sadly influenced by the show result, but I believe there’s enough evidence on the written page to support the idea that Stannis will fail in the battle for Winterfell at some point though again, I’m hopeful he prevails.

Oh that's sad because we're on opposite sides then

In case anyone doesn't know I'm a targaryen supporter. 

2 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

I just don't see the overarching story point of Ramsay beating Stannis. At this point we're up to the second last book in the series; the Boltons have been winning since the end of the second book. They've had their brief moment of glory, such as it is. They've served their story purpose well - destroying the Starks and fracturing the North - now it's time for their little story-arc to be concluded so the series can move on to greater things. Even Stannis acknowledges that the Boltons are just a sideshow to the real threat - the Others. If the Boltons win yet again, someone else is just going to have to come along fairly soon to defeat them. I simply can't see the Boltons playing a part in the final act of the series, i.e. the Long Night and/or Dany's invasion. They're a very "second act" type of villain, you know what I mean? They just give our heroes something to deal with between the big threats of act 1 (Lannisters) and act 3 (Others/Dany). 

 

The boltons only concern two character arcs with about 11 chapters for them. They are more of a nuisance than villains. 

2 hours ago, Mad King Bolton said:

 

though it’s in the Theon chapter of winds which for all we know will be revised and changed whenever we get the authentic one in hand, but as stannis roots out deception and betrayal in true OG style, Theon notes that he is underestimating Ramsay and Stannis seems just too dismissive of Ramsay’s threat, 

 

This is a case of biased narrator. Theon had been personally tortured by Ramsay so he is definitely going to think of ramsay as this scary villain which he's not. Stannis baratheon is a seasoned commander. He defeated the ironborn and smashed mance rayder's 40000 men with just 2000.I doubt he is going to be afraid of ramsay snow

 

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5 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

I just don't see the overarching story point of Ramsay beating Stannis. At this point we're up to the second last book in the series; the Boltons have been winning since the end of the second book. They've had their brief moment of glory, such as it is. They've served their story purpose well - destroying the Starks and fracturing the North - now it's time for their little story-arc to be concluded so the series can move on to greater things. Even Stannis acknowledges that the Boltons are just a sideshow to the real threat - the Others. If the Boltons win yet again, someone else is just going to have to come along fairly soon to defeat them. I simply can't see the Boltons playing a part in the final act of the series, i.e. the Long Night and/or Dany's invasion. They're a very "second act" type of villain, you know what I mean? They just give our heroes something to deal with between the big threats of act 1 (Lannisters) and act 3 (Others/Dany). 

I understand that all of my reasoning is purely meta, so take it with a grain of salt if you want. But Martin has said repeatedly that he's going to start culling superfluous characters and storylines as soon as Winds starts, and I think the Boltons will be high on that list.

I completely agree with you and hear you. I just had a feeling of dread in Theon’s chapter as his inner thoughts were that Stannis shouldn’t take Ramsay lightly and all his thoughts were dismissive of him. Not a good place to be in at this point and that so often bites good characters in the ass and shouldn’t be ignored in the text.

id love nothing more than to move on from the Bolton’s as you said, I just have a feeling there’s more to happen. When Stannis eventually falls I always hoped it was to the Others in disbelief that lightbringer and his prophecy were bs.

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3 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Oh that's sad because we're on opposite sides then

In case anyone doesn't know I'm a targaryen supporter. 

We don’t have to be on opposite sides. I don’t believe Stannis is going to survive the story not make it as far as a confrontation with Dany or f’Aegon anyway. I like him and his story and I also enjoy the Targaryens. All good.

 

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1 minute ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

?

Not sure what happened there. When I posted I had read 3 replies and didn’t disagree with any of them lol. Here’s a promise, I’m not going to post anything using my crappy phone again. Can’t see my formatting well. Apologies. 

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It seems both are underestimating each other and both are underestimating the blizzard. Both armies overstayed too long in one place, exhausted their food supplies and if the snows continue for a few extra weeks the remaining forces in both sides are doomed. Stannis has been on the march for 40 days from Deepwood Motte to the crofter's village. Reaching any of the main castles with food supplies for the survivors will take as long.

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I don't think the plan was to let us have 10 years to look at this between books. Stannis is underestimating Ramsay, yes and we see it, but I believe that's deliberately done by the author so that we underestimate Stannis and assume that his end will come at the gates of Winterfell. And a lot of us did write him off before Cantuse and a few others started showing that Martin had left a path for Stannis to victory. 

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maybe?

but this depends of what is happening within the Wall of Winterfell.

He's certainly a wild card as well as Bran & Bloodraven are, who plainly intend to intervene in some way in the battle. 

There are other elements as well. The ironborn at Torrhen's Square and some suggestions that there might be another army in the snow, led by Robett Glover. I personally believe these suggestions are overblown, but they aren't crazy either.

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3 hours ago, Mad King Bolton said:

I just had a feeling of dread in Theon’s chapter as his inner thoughts were that Stannis shouldn’t take Ramsay lightly and all his thoughts were dismissive of him. Not a good place to be in at this point and that so often bites good characters in the ass and shouldn’t be ignored in the text.

Maybe, but Theon isn't exactly in the right headspace at the moment (and hasn't been for quite a while). The trauma from his captivity has left a lasting impression, and he understandably still views Ramsay with pure terror, perhaps exaggerating the danger the Bastard brings. Ramsay's only battlefield success was slaughtering a bunch of unprepared soldiers that believed him to be their ally - this won't work with Stannis. It's Roose that's the dangerous one, although hopefully he'll have been "betrayed" and cut down by the vengeful Northerners lurking in Winterfell by the time Stannis shows up.

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7 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

This is a case of biased narrator. Theon had been personally tortured by Ramsay so he is definitely going to think of ramsay as this scary villain which he's not. Stannis baratheon is a seasoned commander. He defeated the ironborn and smashed mance rayder's 40000 men with just 2000.I doubt he is going to be afraid of ramsay snow

 

40000 poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly armored men with a bunch of rivalries who think they're all equal instead of listening to a competent officer. And on foot as well, and this sort of army will never stand up against the charge of armored knights. A cavalry charge is scary as hell, and these bozos don't have the discipline to hold together. 

8 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

I imagine Stannis is thinking far more about Roose Bolton than Ramsay. 

Probably. 

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4 hours ago, Mad King Bolton said:

d love nothing more than to move on from the Bolton’s as you said, I just have a feeling there’s more to happen. When Stannis eventually falls I always hoped it was to the Others in disbelief that lightbringer and his prophecy were bs.

I don’t think Stannis actually believes that he is Azor Ahai. Like he doesn’t act arrogant or pretentious because he doesn’t think he is Azor Ahai. He has just taken the the mantle of Azor Ahai to further his cause because he recognizes Melisandre as a powerful ally. He also has physical proof of the religion as opposed to the Seven. For this reason, he follows Rhllor but I don’t think he will actually burn septs or like kill believers of the Faith. To Stannis’s mind, Rhllor is just a tool to the Iron Throne.

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10 hours ago, Mad King Bolton said:

hough it’s in the Theon chapter of winds which for all we know will be revised and changed whenever we get the authentic one in hand, but as stannis roots out deception and betrayal in true OG style, Theon notes that he is underestimating Ramsay and Stannis seems just too dismissive of Ramsay’s threat, 

It seems to me that Stannis’ preparations will lead to defeat of the incoming Freys, likely salvaging the baggage train, hopefully coming to understanding snd uniting with the Manderly force, and more. However, in all of this, Ramsay seems to be someone written off. What will he do? He’s no match for Stannis openly, we see Ramsay’s impulsiveness and arrogance when he wants to attack Stannis outright before the Bolton’s and train head to Winterfell to marry F’Arya, but Roose scolds him and at the time of the end of Dance, Ramsay is in a different position. 

This is a good point but as the people above me stated,  Theon has come from a point where Ramsay has dominated his life. In actual militaristic terms, Ramsay is an absolute fool. His only two victories were brought on by Theon. He rushes into battle blindly and has no real fighting technique. I believe Ramsay will be captured after the fall of Winterfell and be skinned alive by either Mance or Wyman and gelded. Then, he will receive the Yellow Dick treatment and be left out in the snow to die. We might even see a Wight Ramsay in the War of Winter later.

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25 minutes ago, Mithras said:

Yes. But not as much as his fans do.

I agree.

I don't think Stannis is underestimating Ramsay's military prowess. I think Stannis is underestimating Ramsay's cruelty.

In any case, the people who he needs to be really concerned about are Roose Bolton, Wyman Manderly and Barbrey Dustin.

Stannis' true weakness is that he underestimates Sansa and Littlefinger both...which will of course blow up in his face when they show up and pull the rug out from under him.

11 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

I just don't see the overarching story point of Ramsay beating Stannis. At this point we're up to the second last book in the series; the Boltons have been winning since the end of the second book. They've had their brief moment of glory, such as it is. They've served their story purpose well - destroying the Starks and fracturing the North - now it's time for their little story-arc to be concluded so the series can move on to greater things. Even Stannis acknowledges that the Boltons are just a sideshow to the real threat - the Others. If the Boltons win yet again, someone else is just going to have to come along fairly soon to defeat them. I simply can't see the Boltons playing a part in the final act of the series, i.e. the Long Night and/or Dany's invasion. They're a very "second act" type of villain, you know what I mean? They just give our heroes something to deal with between the big threats of act 1 (Lannisters) and act 3 (Others/Dany). 

I understand that all of my reasoning is purely meta, so take it with a grain of salt if you want. But Martin has said repeatedly that he's going to start culling superfluous characters and storylines as soon as Winds starts, and I think the Boltons will be high on that list.

I actually can see one of the Boltons and Stannis both playing a part in the final at of the series.

The surviving Bolton (it can either be Roose or Ramsay, idk) will stay in the North to be a nuisance to the Starks (namely Sansa, the real Arya and Jon) and an impediment to true unity in the North.

Stannis will become some sort of Night King and ally himself with the Others when everything falls apart. I think that he will cross swords (or dragonflame or whatever) with Daenerys at the Trident. Dany will triumph and Stannis will finally be put to rest.

42 minutes ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

I don’t think Stannis actually believes that he is Azor Ahai. Like he doesn’t act arrogant or pretentious because he doesn’t think he is Azor Ahai. He has just taken the the mantle of Azor Ahai to further his cause because he recognizes Melisandre as a powerful ally. He also has physical proof of the religion as opposed to the Seven. For this reason, he follows Rhllor but I don’t think he will actually burn septs or like kill believers of the Faith. To Stannis’s mind, Rhllor is just a tool to the Iron Throne.

Yes but no one else believes that.

Not only that but it makes Stannis look bad. Using religion (and magic) as a mere political tool when there are people who genuinely believe and rely on religion to understand and/or improve their lives and the lives of others--no matter misguided.

It's a terrible thing Stannis is doing there. A man who casts no shadow indeed.

2 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Yes. But Stannis has the guest-rights-breaking wildlings inside the walls. Mance can create instability in Winterfell if he gets loose. It’s Ramsay underestimating Mance. There is the real danger. 

That is of course assuming that: 1) Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter, 2) Ramsay told the truth and 3) that Mance is truly loyal to Stannis and Stannis alone

 

 

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