Zorral Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 13 hours ago, Kalibuster said: That matters a lot for keeping the territory. So why wouldn't that matter to a smart person's calculation for invasion in the first place, particularly somebody who knows how that failure for Russia in Afghanistan. Putin may not be any smarter than all the others who keep doing this, including the USA YAY, but he may be. We don't know, but we should know we shouldn't count on him being one or the other in terms of making our own versions of strategies and deployments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Zorral said: So why wouldn't that matter to a smart person's calculation for invasion in the first place, Because Russia may not care about keeping the territory, any more than, say, ghwb cared about holding Iraq. Russia absolutely obliterating Ukraine military, fucking up their economy and effectively causing a regime change or making Ukraine so unstable Europe is not wanting to touch it is an entirely reasonable goal for Russia. And threatening that unless Ukraine comes under the blanket of Russia is not a bad outcome either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Current situation s already screwing up Ukraine's economy and making it unstable. Putin doesn't need to fire a bullet, the West is doing the dirty work of putting pressure. I wonder how Biden will reply to Zelensky's pley for him to visit Kiiv this week, to see if the situation is as threatening as he keeps saying, and to do an act of deterrence against Putin and support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, I had a look at Lugansk's weather forecast. Not going to freeze soon: https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Luhansk+Luhansk+Ukraine But then, what really matters is that the ground is reasonably solid and not muddy; that it's frozen or just quite dry isn't the key, the key is that it's not raining like crazy for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Interesting movements today. The US and UK seem to have reached an intelligence consensus that Russia has reached the operational capability to invade and could attack at any time. The US embassy is relocating to Lviv in the west of Ukraine (almost right on the border with Poland, and easily reachable by NATO forces in Poland if they decided they need to go into escort embassy staff out). Johnson went as far as saying he believes an operation could start as soon as Wednesday. OTOH, in a PR meeting between Lavrov and Putin, it sounds like Putin has given an additional window of time for diplomacy to work. Interestingly, the German Chancellor will be in Moscow tomorrow and it'll be interesting to see if an operation could start with a foreign head of state in the capital. Also some signs that Ukraine are rattled, with the idea of giving up NATO membership, at least in the short term, being raised and the Russians responding positively to that. Some analysis that the Russian government was not quite expecting the level of international vitriol and threats to their economy they've received, particularly Germany's willingness to cancel Nordstream, and that may be causing a rethink. If Putin can sell the idea that Russian military deployment as caused Ukraine to climb down and rule out being in NATO, he can probably sell that as a major geopolitical victory without costing a single Russian life or causing further damage to the Russian economy. Of course, if Putin has basically chosen to use military force and then looks like it's climbing down, that can be spun as a major weakness. Putin might also consider that outcome is too predictable and wants to use military force to simply show Russia's strength. It also looks like is a plan afoot to call upon the Russian government to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics as independent entities (straight out of the Georgia/South Ossetia playbook). If they agree, they could then issue an ultimatum to Ukraine to pull out of a region they designate and then invade if they refuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Werthead said: It also looks like is a plan afoot to call upon the Russian government to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics as independent entities (straight out of the Georgia/South Ossetia playbook). If they agree, they could then issue an ultimatum to Ukraine to pull out of a region they designate and then invade if they refuse. Right now, I rather suspect Putin will use this to get concessions from Ukraine - agreeing not to join NATO for the next years, agreeing to push for Minsk agreements and give more autonomy to Donetsk and Lugansk. If Ukraine's authorities don't agree, then it'll be time to recognize the breakway parts. As for US and Russia agreeing to keep Ukraine neutral for the time being - say 10 to 15 years -, I'm beginning to wonder if this wasn't actually planned between them following last year's meetings, because (as probably obvious with my comments of these threads) I've had weird vibes of good cop bad cop for weeks, and depending on the week, the roles switched between US and Russia. They had to stage some big show for Putin to convince Russian hardliners he got results and for US to convince NATO and others that the US was ready to get tough but wanted to avoid WW3 more than that. Possibly Zelensky wasn't keen on that, and more than Zelensky, there are all the Ukrainian hardliners who still fancy they can take on the Russian army, and they were to be shown the error of their ways without causing a war and having most of them bombed to kingdom come. Well, at least that would be my ideal (as in "less bad") scenario for what's been happening for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 8 hours ago, Werthead said: Interestingly, the German Chancellor will be in Moscow tomorrow and it'll be interesting to see if an operation could start with a foreign head of state in the capital. Heh, it'd be quite surreal if Putin invades while Scholz is in Moscow tomorrow (or I suppose today). It'd be like the real world/modern equivalent of breaking guest right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcon2909 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 So when is Russia invading? I was told it would be last week, and now its tomorrow. Nothing is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Falcon2909 said: I was told it would be last week, and now its tomorrow. The date that's been making the rounds since late last week is indeed tomorrow - February 16. I'm not holding my breath either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcon2909 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, DMC said: The date that's been making the rounds since late last week is indeed tomorrow - February 16. I'm not holding my breath either. As I said above nothing is going to happen. In fact, russia is withdawing some forces right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 28 minutes ago, Falcon2909 said: In fact, russia is withdawing some forces right now Aye, so they say. Be interesting to see what Scholz says about it. ETA - Quite the theatrical statement here: Quote Russian government officials moved quickly to accuse the West of hysteria and argue that the withdrawal of troops showed that Nato warnings of an invasion were spurious. “February 15 2022 will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed,” Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, wrote in a Facebook post after the announcement. “They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcon2909 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 30 minutes ago, DMC said: Aye, so they say. Be interesting to see what Scholz says about it. ETA - Quite the theatrical statement here: This is some major levels of cope from Russia. Putin chickened out lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not another Stark Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 hours ago, DMC said: Heh, it'd be quite surreal if Putin invades while Scholz is in Moscow tomorrow (or I suppose today). It'd be like the real world/modern equivalent of breaking guest right. Oh come on. He's not going to cut off his head and saw his dog's head in its place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Fixit Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Falcon2909 said: So when is Russia invading? I was told it would be last week, and now its tomorrow. Nothing is going to happen. What a surprise, right? Jul 30, 2014: Russia Has 15,000 Crack Troops on the Ukrainian Border - And Putin’s itching for a fight.- Foreign PolicyMar 19, 2015: Russia Expands Military Exercises To 80,000 Troops- Defense NewsSep 1, 2016: Russia is massing thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border. Here’s why we shouldn’t panic.- VoxSep 13, 2017: What’s Putin up to? The Russian military buildup in Europe raises tension.- Military TimesDec 15, 2018: Ukraine Asserts Major Russian Military Buildup on Eastern Border- New York TimesJun 12, 2019: EXCLUSIVE: US Intelligence Officials and Satellite Photos Detail Russian Military Buildup on Crimea- Defense OneJul 17, 2020: Russia orders 'surprise' military drill in Caspian, Black seas- UPIApr 2, 2021: Russian 'troop build-up' near Ukraine alarms Nato- BBCJan 27, 2022: How Russia Has Increased Its Military Buildup Around Ukraine- New York Times Gotta keep the public on their toes. And we can't forget about that 2% GDP target for defense too! Better make it three! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Falcon2909 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 >the 10th of February >Russia: we do not intend to attack >West: INVASION IS ANYTIME SOON >the 11th of February >Russia: still not invading them >West: INVASION IS NEXT WEEK >the 14th of February >Russia: We have military drills, that's it >West: INVASION IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY, CIA REPORTS >the 15th of February >Russia: Troops returning to bases >West: TRUST US, THEY'RE GONNA INVADE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Read an editorial at CNN that is putting Europe's gas reliance at 38% from Russia currently. Putin could turn off Europe's gas tap. This is the solution https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/14/opinions/putin-russia-gas-europe-climate-connolly/index.html As the Ukraine standoff looms, Europe is already feeling staggering inflation in Energy cost, with the threat of getting worse if an invasion happens. From the article- In the UK, 22 million have been told their energy bills will rise by about £700 ($950) a year, which will hit the poorest the hardest. Recent, but as yet unpublished, figures crunched by the Global Witness data team found that consumer gas prices in the Netherlands and Estonia over the past year have increased by a staggering 62% and 122%, respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Falcon2909 said: >the 10th of February >Russia: we do not intend to attack >West: INVASION IS ANYTIME SOON >the 11th of February >Russia: still not invading them >West: INVASION IS NEXT WEEK >the 14th of February >Russia: We have military drills, that's it >West: INVASION IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY, CIA REPORTS >the 15th of February >Russia: Troops returning to bases >West: TRUST US, THEY'RE GONNA INVADE!! Horseshit. Saying “it could happen anytime” is not saying “it will”. Are you claiming moving 130,000 troops right up to the border of another Nation-State isn’t a provocative action in its own right? If Putin is pulling back. I’m delighted. That doesn’t make his prior actions benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Mr Fixit said: Jul 30, 2014: Russia Has 15,000 Crack Troops on the Ukrainian Border - And Putin’s itching for a fight.- Foreign Policy Russia did invade and annex apart of Ukraine in 2014. 1 hour ago, Mr Fixit said: Gotta keep the public on their toes. And we can't forget about that 2% GDP target for defense too! Better make it three! Silly for NATO to talk about or make preparations for Russia trying to invade and annex it’s neighbors…again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 hours ago, Falcon2909 said: I was told it would be last week, Who told you that exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Fixit Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Silly for NATO to talk about or make preparations for Russia trying to invade and annex it’s neighbors…again. Don't worry. Soon it'll be China or some other poor sod in the Middle East or an alien invasion. We must always be vigilant; threats are everywhere and should be dealt with swiftly lest they destroy our way of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I don't know about anyone else but I'm definitely in wait and see mode. Yesterday we had the performative table scene Putin and Lavrov put on agreeing to give diplomacy a chance, as well as the Ukranian ambassador to the UK suggesting they may concede on NATO - then walking it back. And today we have Scholz in Moscow. This move may well be related to all or some of that in Putin's brinkmanship, and it's really not clear how at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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