Maithanet Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Michael Kofman of CNA gives a 25 minute podcast about how Ukranian War is developing. He's echoing a lot of what we're hearing here (partly because many boarders are following him on Twitter). Takeaways: 1. The Russian military is indeed holding back a huge amount of their capabilities. They are using only a faction of their artillery and airpower, and virtually no electronic warfare. Russia is doing virtually no information warfare either, which is very odd, and gives Ukraine a huge PR win. 2. The reasons for this seem to be that Putin badly misread the situation and thought that the Ukrainian military would be less willing to fight. The war plan was a quick, audacious strike into Kiev to decapitate the government and essentially end the war in a couple of days. Like a large scale version of the Crimea 2014 operation. They wanted to keep civilian casualties as low as possible so that the Ukrainian people would not turn against a Russian puppet and so that Ukraine wouldn't have an expensive rebuild on their hands (now that they are within Russia's zone of influence). They also hoped that by winning so quickly Western sanctions would be less severe. 3. This plan has been a total failure, and Russia has been slow to make any adjustments from their initial assumptions. They are gradually bringing more air and artillery power to bear, but still not a lot. And Russian casualties and equipment losses, particularly among vehicles, have been high (although far from crippling). 4. It is important to note that Russia's military incompetence should not be assumed to apply to any war with the West. They have chosen to fight with one hand tied, and they would never do that against NATO. 5. Russia is winning the war, even with these restrictions. Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition with Russia. But we should expect Russian tactics to change and likely get more brutal. If Russia chooses to bring its air and artillery forces to bear, civilian and military casualties will soar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 21 hours ago, The Dragon Demands said: ...I know...that's the point. I was being sarcastic Tempting fate, "what's the worst that could happen?" Sort of like saying "the Russians can take every major bridge over the Dnieper if they maintain a massive airlift bridge for 3 continuous days - it's not as if the Ukrainian air force will counter attack once the element of surprise is lost" (Market Garden) ....speak of the devil, but now they actually ARE sending in the Belarusian army, to support the Russian flanks. Shit.https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lukashenko-warns-of-3rd-world-war-as-belarus-prepares-to-send-troops/ar-AAUoZNG?ocid=msedgntp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 @Maithanet the real question now is if China will go along with such a widening of the war, they're already hesitating about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, The Dragon Demands said: @Maithanet the real question now is if China will go along with such a widening of the war, they're already hesitating about this The Chinese like calm. The Chinese like trade. This is not that. The longer this goes on the more pressure, I think, that the Chinese will place on the Russians/Belorusians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, The Dragon Demands said: @Maithanet the real question now is if China will go along with such a widening of the war, they're already hesitating about this I don't expect China is going to turn much more against Russia than they already have. They are already asking Russia to negotiate an end to the war, but they aren't going to force this issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 The UK has banned all vessels under a Russian flag from its ports. Expect other European nations to follow suit. What that means for all the superyachts (sunk or not) still in European ports with their oligarch owners at home in Russia is unclear. The Russian delegation from the peace talks said that there was no major breakthrough, but "areas of agreement" have been found they can work with, which is vaguely positive. Of course, the Ukrainian view may be different. Quote 4. It is important to note that Russia's military incompetence should not be assumed to apply to any war with the West. They have chosen to fight with one hand tied, and they would never do that against NATO. It depends on the circumstance. NATO will never initiate a war against Russia, so any war fought be NATO would be defensive. That would require Russian troops to invade a NATO country and all of those bordering Russia would have the same issue as Ukraine as towards morale, what are they doing there etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Just now, Werthead said: It depends on the circumstance. NATO will never initiate a war against Russia, so any war fought be NATO would be defensive. That would require Russian troops to invade a NATO country and all of those bordering Russia would have the same issue as Ukraine as towards morale, what are they doing there etc. But any war to invade Poland or Estonia is not going to be made on the assumption that those countries aren't really going to fight back. And thus the full strength of Russian air, artillery and electronic warfare would be brought to bear. The fact that Russia is holding back on deploying these advantages is perhaps the biggest reason why the Ukrainian military is having so much success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Ukraine is about to formally request to join the EU; and there is some speculation whether this is one of the off-ramps for Putin to de-escalate (I guess punting the question of joining NATO and supplanting it with EU membership). Also, not sure what Belarus gains from sending troops into Ukraine and act as a staging ground for Russian nukes, if necessary. They will also be sanctioned, and I believe their economy will be far worse off, and not much of it will be offset by Russian assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Ukraine is about to formally request to join the EU; and there is some speculation whether this is one of the off-ramps for Putin to de-escalate (I guess punting the question of joining NATO and supplanting it with EU membership). Also, not sure what Belarus gains from sending troops into Ukraine and act as a staging ground for Russian nukes, if necessary. They will also be sanctioned, and I believe their economy will be far worse off, and not much of it will be offset by Russian assistance. Well, Lukaschenko needs Russia. Plain and simple. They were already sanctioned by the west and Russia is/was pretty much their only ally right now. So if Putin goes Jump! The answer is How high, Sir? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Ukraine is about to formally request to join the EU; and there is some speculation whether this is one of the off-ramps for Putin to de-escalate (I guess punting the question of joining NATO and supplanting it with EU membership). Also, not sure what Belarus gains from sending troops into Ukraine and act as a staging ground for Russian nukes, if necessary. They will also be sanctioned, and I believe their economy will be far worse off, and not much of it will be offset by Russian assistance. Will the Putin claim that is “interference” in the invasion by a NATO proxy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 When people talk about Russia not having air superiority this is an example - the absurdly effective Turkish drones still flying and hitting rear positions and convoy supplies. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498342697417023489?t=-YaZlnJ_EW_P8XNZBsSSzQ&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derfel Cadarn Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Ukraine is about to formally request to join the EU; and there is some speculation whether this is one of the off-ramps for Putin to de-escalate (I guess punting the question of joining NATO and supplanting it with EU membership). Also, not sure what Belarus gains from sending troops into Ukraine and act as a staging ground for Russian nukes, if necessary. They will also be sanctioned, and I believe their economy will be far worse off, and not much of it will be offset by Russian assistance. Sounds like an excellent way to have its soldiers killed, its military hardwarw used up or blown up, followed by its economy being fucked up. And to spur more riots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Russia faces financial meltdown as sanctions slam its economy https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/business/russia-ruble-banks-sanctions/index.html Quote The Russian central bank last week intervened in the currency markets to try to prop up the ruble. And on Friday, it said it was increasing the supply of bills to ATMs to meet increased demand for cash. Russian state news agency TASS reported that several banks had seen increased withdrawals since the invasion of Ukraine, notably of foreign currency. "These are the conditions in which runs on local banks begin," wrote Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics. "The [Russian central bank] has this morning raised interest rates to 20% but other measures (e.g. limits on deposit withdrawals) are possible later today. All of this will accelerate Russia's economic downturn — a fall in GDP of [about] 5% now looks likely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Russia has said anyone sending currency abroad will be prosecuted. Not exactly the voice of economic confidence. More on the talks: there were three rounds of discussions and apparently they didn't get very far, with the Ukrainians calling them "difficult." The "area of agreement" was on a ceasefire, which is now under discussion. Some speculation that Russia may execute another major attack overnight and if that doesn't get far, call a ceasefire, if only to rearm and resupply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Maithanet said: 4. It is important to note that Russia's military incompetence should not be assumed to apply to any war with the West. They have chosen to fight with one hand tied, and they would never do that against NATO. This point is a little baffling considering some of the analysis I've read --which, while I'll grant may confirm my bias but do make sense-- in that many of the logistical and tactical mistakes that Russia has made so far would be punished quickly, and severely, by NATO, ie: armored columns humping nose to tail being wiped out entirely instead of disrupted by Bayraktars, et stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, Maithanet said: But any war to invade Poland or Estonia is not going to be made on the assumption that those countries aren't really going to fight back. If Russia invaded Poland again we would simply invade Moscow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 This is amazing - Russian tiktok star effectively showing Ukrainians how to operate Russian equipment. Lots of Ukrainian thank yous in her comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 More analysts on the BBC. They're convinced Russia has committed over half their forces (they had deployed) to the invasion. They also believe there has been a change in doctrine and Russia will now switch to adopting siege tactics and will be more prepared to deploy heavy artillery and heavier weaponry. Looks like it might now be moving to some kind of race between Putin getting a diplomatic outcome he can accept as a victory and the Russians going all-out to win militarily, which may escalate the situation considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Yep. Cluster bombs being used in kharkiv, shelling reported in kyiv. Russian forces appear to be attempting to encircle kyiv more in depth. This is closer to the standard doctrine for Russia, and also represents a very dangerous escalation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Also, fifa to somehow do the right thing for once and ban Russia from world cup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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