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NBA Finals - The Problem with Steph Curry


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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I guess that's just somewhere we'll agree to disagree.  Those four absolutely sound like a championship core to me.

Yeah even without VanVleet, Durant/Barnes/Siakam is a really intriguing Big 3.  But as mentioned, they'll almost certainly have to give up Siakam.

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8 hours ago, Calibandar said:

It doesnt seem like teams are nervous though, or that teams even worry about Durant's character like you do.

The key here is the price. It's worth gambling if you can buy low, but the Nets ask of the Wolves was basically ten first round picks. No team is doing that with one of the main reasons being what if he just nukes our team in a year or two?

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And sure, we can say that KD has been a part of some bad decisions made in Brooklyn, though....personally the only one that comes to mind is his and Kyrie's involvement in giving DeAndre a deal. Most of the mess in Brooklyn has been caused by Kyrie and his unreliability and unavailability. 

Which I'd argue KD enabled. He's not a leader and it seems pretty obvious he did little to nothing to try and get Kyrie back in line. One of the reasons I think the Lakers are the only suiter at this point is because they believe LeBron can tell Kyrie to get his shit together.

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I guess what does concern me about Durant in this instance is....why does he actually want to leave? Is it unhappiness with the team ( Marks, the owner)? Or because he doesnt like the roster? Because the latter makes sense, but the former does not, I dont see what the Nets did to make him want to leave. That they should be very skeptical about signing Kyrie to a long term deal makes a ton of sense and you cant blame them for that.

The latter is probably it, there's an internal powerplay going on, he wanted them to give Kyrie a LTD and they said no, we'll only offer him something that makes sense to us. And then he chucked them the deuces. 

That said I still think he's on their roster going into the season, especially if Kyrie isn't in LA. And that's probably the Nets best option. If Simmons comes back and looks good they should be one of the top teams in the East and maybe that will fix things. :dunno:

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The Knicks seem like the favorites to land Donovan Mitchell.  Which will probably mean they trade most of their assets and are locked into a core of Mitchell, Brunson, Barrett and Randle.  Which is...not bad, if your goal is to win a lot of regular season games and lose in the second round of the playoffs.  That would be a step up for the Knicks the past 20 years, so maybe that is what they're going for.  But it is really hard to see how that team is a realistic championship contender unless Barrett improves dramatically (which I don't expect). 

So...yay?

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54 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Knicks seem like the favorites to land Donovan Mitchell.  Which will probably mean they trade most of their assets and are locked into a core of Mitchell, Brunson, Barrett and Randle.  Which is...not bad, if your goal is to win a lot of regular season games and lose in the second round of the playoffs.  That would be a step up for the Knicks the past 20 years, so maybe that is what they're going for.  But it is really hard to see how that team is a realistic championship contender unless Barrett improves dramatically (which I don't expect). 

So...yay?

Mitchell and Brunson sounds like a bad backcourt. Two small, shoot first guards and one of them is a horrific defender. And I think Brunson is wildly overrated and not worth anything close to the deal he just signed. I’ve heard a few talking heads speculate what it will cost to get him and the consensus seems to be Barrett and 4-5 picks or just 6-7 picks plus taking on some bad contracts. That all just sounds terrible.

And if it does cost that much the only team that can trade for KD is the Pelicans, costing them Ingram and 6-7 picks. This is getting out of control.

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22 hours ago, Maithanet said:

 

If you're Durant, I understand that your window as a 1A guy capable of winning a title is closing.  You already wasted 3 years in Brooklyn.  But the quick fix of going to another contender (knowing that team will have to ship a ton of talent back to Brooklyn) isn't as appealing as it sounds.  It isn't easy to see where Durant could get traded to and still have the pieces to win a championship (possible exception for Boston and GSW, which don't seem that interested anyway). 

 

Well, I would suggest Phoenix is both appealing and doable, with them giving up Ayton, Bridges and picks.

But perhaps this package is not attractive enough. But if it works, then Phoenix can try and replace what they got from Ayton and Bridges with other pieces.

31 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Knicks seem like the favorites to land Donovan Mitchell.  Which will probably mean they trade most of their assets and are locked into a core of Mitchell, Brunson, Barrett and Randle.  Which is...not bad, if your goal is to win a lot of regular season games and lose in the second round of the playoffs.  That would be a step up for the Knicks the past 20 years, so maybe that is what they're going for.  But it is really hard to see how that team is a realistic championship contender unless Barrett improves dramatically (which I don't expect). 

So...yay?

I would assume the Jazz would like to have Barrett and many picks in that trade. 

I'd also wonder about the fit with Barrett if he stays, you'd have a Mitchell-Brunson- and Barrett 1, 2 and 3.

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12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Mitchell and Brunson sounds like a bad backcourt. Two small, shoot first guards and one of them is a horrific defender. And I think Brunson is wildly overrated and not worth anything close to the deal he just signed. I’ve heard a few talking heads speculate what it will cost to get him and the consensus seems to be Barrett and 4-5 picks or just 6-7 picks plus taking on some bad contracts. That all just sounds terrible.

And if it does cost that much the only team that can trade for KD is the Pelicans, costing them Ingram and 6-7 picks. This is getting out of control.

Brunson has already played with Doncic, so we know how it looks with a great offensive but poor defensive partner. 

I'm not suggesting that the Knicks are going to give up 8 first round picks for Mitchell, just that they will give up most of their most appealing assets.  The price you're quoting sounds really high.  The Knicks have said that Barrett is not available for trade, and I don't think he'll be included.  Maybe Randle will be part of it, although I don't know if the Jazz even want him.  I expect the price will be something like 4-5 firsts, and whatever non Barrett players the Jazz want to make the money work.  Maybe the Jazz add in some contracts they want to unload. 

14 minutes ago, Calibandar said:

Well, I would suggest Phoenix is both appealing and doable, with them giving up Ayton, Bridges and picks.

But perhaps this package is not attractive enough. But if it works, then Phoenix can try and replace what they got from Ayton and Bridges with other pieces.

The problem is Ayton and Simmons cannot both be on the Nets.  Brooklyn has said they aren't interested in trading Simmons because his value is at an all-time low and they think he's worth more than they could get.  Which provides Brooklyn with even more incentive to play nice with Durant+Irving to get them onboard for one more year.  Because at that point they could hopefully rehabilitate Simmons reputation such that he might be tradeable as well.  Maybe (in a really optimistic scenario) Irving would play more and his value could be higher as well. 

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4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Brunson has already played with Doncic, so we know how it looks with a great offensive but poor defensive partner. 

It looked like not nearly enough and Luka is so much better than Mitchell.

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I'm not suggesting that the Knicks are going to give up 8 first round picks for Mitchell, just that they will give up most of their most appealing assets.  The price you're quoting sounds really high.  The Knicks have said that Barrett is not available for trade, and I don't think he'll be included.  Maybe Randle will be part of it, although I don't know if the Jazz even want him.  I expect the price will be something like 4-5 firsts, and whatever non Barrett players the Jazz want to make the money work.  Maybe the Jazz add in some contracts they want to unload. 

The Jazz might ask for more picks if Randle is the deal. That's quickly become a bad contract. And yes the number I laid out is astonishingly high, but it seems most people are of the opinion that Mitchell should command more than Gobert did and that was really six firsts (if you include the two really young players taken in the first) and two nice role players. So their starting point is going to be value equal to seven first rounders. The NBA has got to fix this and I think sooner or later we're going to see large amounts of money included in these deals like European transfer fees.

 

And in breaking news, Ayton signs a four year max deal with Indiana. The Suns are now on the clock and if they lose him they're not getting KD.

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5 hours ago, Wilbur said:

When time becomes a loop...

Best episode of the entire series imo.  Well, either that one or the one where LaVar Ball is Dany and his three kids hatch at the end.

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8 minutes ago, WarGalley said:

I think this one was my favorite:

 

 

It's honestly kind of crazy to think about how many Eastern Conference teams LeBron just decimated and sent into rebuild.  The Hawks never recovered from getting swept in that sixty win season.

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Reports on the Suns matching for Ayton are all over the place, I think they kind of have to even if he isn't worth it, but either way KD to the Suns seems dead. 

Meanwhile there's chatter that the Nets are so done with Kyrie that they might trade him to the Heat for Lowry, a cheap nice young player not named Herro and a pick or two. Some think a straight up swap of the two is even possible.

If I had to be I think if KD is moved he's going to Memphis or NO. Both teams have all their picks and a young player to attach to it. Memphis can give up two nice starters and four picks and three swaps while NO can give up Ingram and god knows how many picks, but they do have a ton. 

Let's see if Ayton's move finally gets everything else moving along.

Edited by Tywin et al.
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9 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

Meanwhile there's chatter that the Nets are so done with Kyrie that they might trade him to the Heat for Lowry, a cheap nice young player not named Herro and a pick or two. Some think a straight up swap of the two is even possible.

If I had to be I think if KD is moved he's going to Memphis or NO. Both teams have all their picks and a young player to attach to it. Memphis can give up two nice starters and four picks and three swaps while NO can give up Ingram and god knows how many picks, but they do have a ton. 

Let's see if Ayton's move finally gets everything else moving along.

Memphis is definitely an interesting destination for him. I would hand over JJJ and other players/picks immediately.

They have a great culture too.

So Suns have matched the offer and now have Ayton. From the reports it seems Ayton was actually eager to play for the Pacers. You'd have to wonder if he wasnt just matched because they simply couldnt let such an asset go for nothing.

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2 hours ago, Calibandar said:

Memphis is definitely an interesting destination for him. I would hand over JJJ and other players/picks immediately.

They have a great culture too.

Now here's the fun part, would you offer up Ja for KD? Maybe also ask for picks from the Nets?

Every other team with a young superstar should say hell no, but it's worth remembering the Grizzle were better without him. They blew out the Warriors by 39 after he got hurt and their record without him was crazy.

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So Suns have matched the offer and now have Ayton. From the reports it seems Ayton was actually eager to play for the Pacers. You'd have to wonder if he wasnt just matched because they simply couldnt let such an asset go for nothing.

Indeed, they couldn't let him leave for nothing, even if they're down on him and don't think he's worth the contract. I think it's a safe bet that he's traded by next seasons trade deadline, if not well before then.

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No, I would not trade Morant for him, and wouldnt even think about it.

I need Morant there to pair with Durant in order for this to make any sense and continue to have a great team. Much sooner would I throw in JJJ and maybe Brooks and picks.

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5 hours ago, Calibandar said:

So Suns have matched the offer and now have Ayton. From the reports it seems Ayton was actually eager to play for the Pacers. You'd have to wonder if he wasnt just matched because they simply couldnt let such an asset go for nothing.

Yeah, it's the dilemma of the NBA max contract rules.  If you have a legit top 5 guy, then you pay him the max, and you are getting a great deal.  Lebron was worth at least 20 million more than his max contracts when he was in his prime.  But if you're talking about the 20th or 25th or 30th best guy in the league, they aren't worth the max.  BUT, they are big enough stars that fans get attached to them, they're valuable assets, and you simply cannot let them walk away for nothing.  Ayton absolutely falls into that category. 

Note:  I'm making these numbers up.

If a $10 million/year contract should, on average, be worth 1 additional win, and Ayton is worth 2.5 additional wins per year, then he ought to be paid $25 million a year.  But if the Pacers offer him $33 million a year, then the Suns can either let him walk for free (losing 2.5 wins per year) or pay him $33 million a year (losing 0.8 wins per year).  Now, yes, theoretically if this were a truly free and efficient market they could just hand out a $25 million dollar contract to a different player.  But there is no such player available now, and there may not be next year either.  So the less bad choice is for the Suns to overpay him rather than just pinch thier pennies and throw this coming year in the trash (knowing that Paul is getting worse every year). 

Not to mention the embarassment of letting the #1 pick walk for free, which makes your organization look like fools, particularly when Doncic went #3. 

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