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How much of Ramsay's and Roose's actions were planned?


James Steller
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It's safe to say that Ramsay isn't a very deep thinker, but even he must have known that openly abducting and killing the widow of a major Northern house would get him into serious trouble. And yes, I get that he's twelve different levels of psychopath, but even they have a sense of self-preservation, do they not? Ramsay certainly did when he switched clothes with Reek and pretended to be him. But even then, he was set to be executed if it wasn't for Theon saving his life by taking Winterfell.

Ramsay strikes me as someone who improvises a lot and who also failed upwards because of convenience. Roose somehow trusted him enough to give him command of House Bolton's remaining forces, and he proceeds to use them to create a crisis which threatens to tear his house apart. There was no way he'd have survived if Theon hadn't come in the way he did. 

Which means I now have to ponder Roose's decision. He knows who Ramsay is, and what he is, but he still left him in charge. I guess there wasn't much of an option for him, but he clearly has men watching Ramsay and reporting to him on Ramsay's actions. He could have gotten Ramsay killed so many times before and nobody would have mourned him.

Did Roose leave Ramsay in charge in the hope that he'd wreak havoc in the North when most of the fighting forces were away? Did he give Ramsay instructions? 

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2 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Only living son, and bastard born at that. 

This is Roose’s view, yes. He bends the law. He broke the ban on the right of the first knight, when it disagreed with his northern tradition.  He appears from the outside to follow the laws, but secretly broke that one.  He had Ramsey legitimized to make him acceptable to the eyes of the north. 
 

 

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Ramsay is absolutely too crazy to consider himself in danger. He does what he pleases, and he's had a lot of luck getting out of well-deserved punishments.

As for Roose, he was definitely planning things. It's pretty obvious, given how he was undercutting his rivals from the very first. I'd say he was always hoping to find an opportunity to supplant the Starks. 

Putting Ramsay in charge was absolutely a strategic decision on his part. He can rely on Ramsay being unpredictable and wild. Of course, he couldn't predict that Daryn Hornwood was going to die, at the same time as his father, but he had to have known that the war would lead to some kind of issue on the home front. And once Ramsay noticed, he'd happily exploit it for his own means. Roose is a lot like Littlefinger in that regard; he doesn't control chaos, nor does he even try to control it. He simply rides the wave as far as he can go until the next wave shows itself. 

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8 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

The Starks rebelled and he had a duty to stop them. 

But Roose rebelled alongside the Starks when they first rebelled. His armies clashed with the Lannisters. 

9 hours ago, James Steller said:

And yes, I get that he's twelve different levels of psychopath, but even they have a sense of self-preservation, do they not?

I thought that psychopaths, at least one type, had a lack of long term planning skills/didn't consider the long term consequences of their actions very much. Ramsay seems to want instant gratification and I don't think he has the patience to wait for long-term plans to pay off. So he may not have thought much about how his treatment of Lady Hornwood could affect his survival later on, looking only at what her death got him in the moment.

I think Roose thinks through everything while Ramsay thinks through basically nothing.

In my opinion, Roose is a bit stuck because he knows Ramsay is unsuitable but he doesn't want a boy lord ruling house Bolton. He seems to think he won't live much longer, which is odd.

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              Roose seemed amused by that. "All you have I gave you. You would do well to remember that, bastard.
                                                                                                   .
This is quite a statement coming from a man who owes everything he as to his son.

14 hours ago, James Steller said:

It's safe to say that Ramsay isn't a very deep thinker,

Id call that dangerous thinking, so would Hornwood, Theon, Ser Rodrik, Manderly, etc, 

14 hours ago, James Steller said:

but even he must have known that openly abducting and killing the widow of a major Northern house would get him into serious trouble

Maybe not, the preliminary talks back at Winterfell made it clear that the Hornwood debacle was ambiguous

14 hours ago, James Steller said:

But even then, he was set to be executed if it wasn't for Theon saving his life by taking Winterfell.

 Possibly. If the crimes were on Ramsay and Reek was just like a slave/witness he may have walked.

14 hours ago, James Steller said:

Roose somehow trusted him enough to give him command of House Bolton's remaining forces, and he proceeds to use them to create a crisis which threatens to tear his house apart.

Why do you think that? Roose gave Ramsay armor and hes known in the Dreadfort but I highly doubt he was given command of the Dreadfort

14 hours ago, James Steller said:

He could have gotten Ramsay killed so many times before and nobody would have mourned him.

Kinslayer and such, besides, Ramsays good for Bolton.

14 hours ago, James Steller said:

 

Did Roose leave Ramsay in charge in the hope that he'd wreak havoc in the North when most of the fighting forces were away? Did he give Ramsay instructions?

Not a chance. The logistics cant add up. 
-Roose goes to Winterfell to pay homage (lets say he leaves his child bastard in charge instead of an adult with a title)
-Robbs in the south and wants Greatjon to take hes footmen, but changes his mind to Roose. (ok, its possible Roose told Rams that)
- Roose is running away from Tywin, his P.O address is somewhere in the RL, how can he message Ramsay to occupy Hornwood, or vice versa?
-Roose is the lord now of weasel soups but his son is in jail. Once again the logistics dont add up on how they can communicate.
-Ramsay escapes Theons clutches and arrives at the Dreadfort. Now seriously, how the hell could Roose have left a message to Ramsay about conquering Winterfell! 

Ramsays game was driven through luck, almost exclusively, but the bit thats not is nothing but guile and shrewdness from Ramsay, not Roose. 

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As pointed out, communication and coordination between them is impossible. Also, the lynchpin of the meteoric rise of house Bolton was Theon's capture of Winterfell, which neither of them could have predicted. These facts preclude any pre established plan. However, both Roose and Ramsay, exhibit a similar streak of opportunism, which allowed them to play off eachother in remarkably complimentary ways. Ramsay is uneducated and unstable, but is actually quite clever and this translates to him being very good at thinking on his feet, while displaying poor judgement in the long-term. He also seems to have a knack for manipulating people, by enabling the worst in them. 

Roose's preoccupation with his leaches, eating plums and various remarks he has made about taboos leads me to be believe that he is quite superstious and genuinely considers it taboo to have his son killed. Not that he has feelings about it, but see these as rules that has to follow, in order to avoid being cursed while simultaneously believing that he can apply loopholes in them. This could be the reason that he left Ramsay as his castelan; he expected that he would make trouble for his neighbours, whether Hornwoods, Karstraks or Umbers, resulting in him getting hanged, thus having the Starks getting rid of Ramsay for him. 

This could be the reasoning behind what he tells Theon, though, at least I part, he says what he says because he understands that Theon can't really help himself from repeating everything to Ramsay. 

Edited by The Sleeper
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Roose took comand of the North infantry and imediatly he disobeys Robb going after Tywin when his first order was to stall for time, draw Tywin north and avoid the battle if possible. What he did is what the Greatjon told Robb to do and was discarded for being either too risk or too foolish. I also think that Roose botched the battle on purpuse, everything that happened there is too weird.

After the battles of WW and GF everyone already knew about the death of Lord Hornwood and his heir, a lot of time passes from the end of AGoT and ACoK, several battles in the riverlands, the discussion for the next Hornwood lord and etc, a lot of letters were being written and send, I don't see why Roose and Ramsey would not keep in touch about the situation in the north and in the south.

I think Roose ordered Ramsey to abduct Donella to secure that he would be the one to get at least part of that land, the majority of the houses that wanted to be lords of the Hornwood lands were trying it by marrying her after all.

Ramsey's acted way overboard forcing Donella into a marriage with him and torturing her, invading the lands and presenting himself as a clear criminal for everybody to see. From there on I think is Ramsey that botched everything  being defeated and captured and Roose decided to distance himself from it and left Ramsey to his fate.

Roose later on went on to take the lands for himself when he was declared Warden of the North.

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In view of the bitter historic rivalry between Bolton and Stark, I imagine that unlike the other vanquished northern houses, the Boltons never put aside aspirations to leadership of the North. A cunning man like Roose would make use of a half-decent opportunity. Embarking on a war under a boy lord-in-waiting whose father was incarcerated by a ruling party well known for its ruthlessness must have been a jackpot situation for Roose. I imagine he began thinking about how to use the unforeseen opportunity from there. 

17 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I think Roose ordered Ramsey to abduct Donella to secure that he would be the one to get at least part of that land, the majority of the houses that wanted to be lords of the Hornwood lands were trying it by marrying her after all.

I second this. It also gave Roose an opportunity to see how Ramsay would handle things. Not taking him down south was a calculated move as well because that way he would still have some control over affairs in the North. Ramsay taking over Winterfell couldn't have been planned beforehand.

Roose was pretty nonchalant regarding Ramsay's deeds and behaviour because this probably suited him fine. Like Gregor Clegane was for Tywin, Ramsay was the perfect tool for taking care of the dirty stuff while Roose busied himself with the finer details of his coup without anyone noticing. Any atrocities committed by Ramsay are attributed to his bad blood and bastard nature. From the sound of him, I don't think Domeric would have been as suitable a partner in crime as Ramsay has been. Having his son legitimized meant being able to take over Winterfell and truely make it House Bolton of Winterfell. Being able to produce fArya to pacify the Northeners made it easier of course.   That said, Ramsay's extreme ambition and poor long-term judgement might cause the whole endevour to backfire sooner or later. 

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It's just impossible that Ramsay could command his father's remaining troops in the North, treacherously sack Winterfell while sparing the Frey boys and taking them with him without Roose's knowledge and approval.

While we don't know when Roose began to truly plot against Robb Stark, he made a point of weakening the other northern houses while preserving his forces from the beggining as seen with his command during the battle of the Green Fork where he sent the Hornwood, Manderly, Karstark, Glover and other noble houses forces to face the Lannisters army's might resulting in lord Hornwood's death and tons of deaths and important lords and heirs being captured. 

And we saw signs of Roose being in touch with Tywin starting from ACOK during his staying at Harrenhal, hinted during Arya's chapters with him. 

 

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2 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

While we don't know when Roose began to truly plot against Robb Stark, he made a point of weakening the other northern houses while preserving his forces from the beggining as seen with his command during the battle of the Green Fork where he sent the Hornwood, Manderly, Karstark, Glover and other noble houses forces to face the Lannisters army's might resulting in lord Hornwood's death and tons of deaths and important lords and heirs being captured. 

To be clear, Roose:

-forces a night march on his troops

-ruins the element of surprise by sounding loud horns

-runs downhill from the high ground towards an army which is bigger and has far more cavalry

-loses over a quarter of the army (he started with more than 17,000 infantry, and after the battle (plus after the Freys pull out) he's got less than 10,000 left)

-deliberately keeps his own men in the vanguard so that they're least impacted by casualties

If it wasn't for Robb's great victories, I daresay Roose would have been in big trouble from Robb after a defeat like that. I don't even know if he ever really understood what had happened, either. Roose could have told him anything by raven, and since he was killing off the Northern forces piece by piece, there wouldn't be anyone to tell him otherwise.

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8 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

To be clear, Roose:

-forces a night march on his troops

-ruins the element of surprise by sounding loud horns

-runs downhill from the high ground towards an army which is bigger and has far more cavalry

-loses over a quarter of the army (he started with more than 17,000 infantry, and after the battle (plus after the Freys pull out) he's got less than 10,000 left)

-deliberately keeps his own men in the vanguard so that they're least impacted by casualties

If it wasn't for Robb's great victories, I daresay Roose would have been in big trouble from Robb after a defeat like that. I don't even know if he ever really understood what had happened, either. Roose could have told him anything by raven, and since he was killing off the Northern forces piece by piece, there wouldn't be anyone to tell him otherwise.

Yeah, it's really plot armor that no one inside the Northern side had any suspicion about Roose and how his forces stay relatively intact while the other lords and their forces who were under his command are getting massacred. It's even more glaring as it had been said that Ned had always distrusted Roose.

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On 9/24/2022 at 6:03 AM, Arthur Peres said:

I don't see why Roose and Ramsey would not keep in touch about the situation in the north and in the south.

Roose spent a lot time on the road and Ramsay spent a considerable amount of time as a captive and then I doubt that Luwin would send ravens on his behalf to Roose. They would have had trouble keeping track of each other, let alone send ravens and wait for replies.

The issue with the any preconceived plan of supplanting the Starks is that it is almost impossible without the fall of Winterfell and the apparent deaths of Bran and Rickon, which could not have been anticipated.

There is also another issue. Until Moat Cailin Roose would not have known that he was to be a commander and therefore have any freedom of movement. 

9 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

If it wasn't for Robb's great victories, I daresay Roose would have been in big trouble from Robb after a defeat like that. I don't even know if he ever really understood what had happened, either. Roose could have told him anything by raven, and since he was killing off the Northern forces piece by piece, there wouldn't be anyone to tell him otherwise.

It was almost a year until Robb saw Roose in person again and then Roose blamed the debacle of Duskendale on Robett Glover. Roose probably spun the tale about the Green Fork however he wished. This is a good juxtaposition with Robb's reaction to Edmure. There is key difference, however. Roose's defeat, even though unnecessary, did serve its purpose in Robb's plan. On the other hand Edmure's victory completely derailed it.

There is also the issue of what he was instructed to accomplish. It loos like initially Robb did not mind a confrontation, but then thought better of it as seen through his choice of commanders. I think that commanders are to meant to have a free rein in order to allow for adaptability in the face of lack of communication. His objectives were twofold in terms of Robb’s campaign. Keep Tywin busy long enough while also securing the route to the North. The battle did waste Tywin's time, while his own troops retreated in good order having two strong defensive positions to fall back to. So in a sense he accomplished both objectives. While he managed to get Manderly, Karstark and Hornwood captured or killed, this would not have been decisive as their fathers and brothers were with Robb. Their deaths however would allow him easier control of their own troops. Losing the battle so badly, does nothing for him. Outright betrayal, in the form of contacting either Tywin or Jaime would have been relatively simple, but gained him little. On the other hand the more damage he inflicted on Tywin the more he would have raised his stock among the North men and the better his negotiating position with Tywin. 

In short, I think he was playing it safe, hedging his bets and creating options for himself rather than having committed to a specific sort of action. Trying to juggle all these balls he botched the actual battle. 

 

Edited by The Sleeper
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38 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Yeah, it's really plot armor that no one inside the Northern side had any suspicion about Roose and how his forces stay relatively intact while the other lords and their forces who were under his command are getting massacred. It's even more glaring as it had been said that Ned had always distrusted Roose.

Not really, for most of the time there would have been no one for Roose to answer to and by the time the question was raised they bigger issues to deal with. Besides, lords looking after their own asses first and foremost is nothing new. It doesn't speak to betrayal in and of itself. 

ETA and Robb, Edmure and Catelyn would not have a clear picture of the composition of his forces beyond what Roose himself reported. 

Edited by The Sleeper
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5 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Roose spent a lot time on the road and Ramsay spent a considerable amount of time as a captive and then I doubt that Luwin would send ravens on his behalf to Roose. They would have had trouble keeping track of each other, let alone send ravens and wait for replies.

 

At the start of the book is very clear, that all camps are sending several messages between each other. Tywin orders a new army be raised by Stafford, Robb get the news of events that happened after the end of AGoT, like the death of the young lord Darry.

The news of the death of the lord hornwood and his heir cleary already got to the north as we see several houses making their claim. I don't see why Roose would not inform Ramsey of what was happening during all this.

I don't understand your point about Luwin. Roose was at the the Twins or at the Ruby ford at the start of the book and Ramsey at the Dreadfort. They don't need Luwin to write to each other.

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14 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

 

At the start of the book is very clear, that all camps are sending several messages between each other. Tywin orders a new army be raised by Stafford, Robb get the news of events that happened after the end of AGoT, like the death of the young lord Darry.

The news of the death of the lord hornwood and his heir cleary already got to the north as we see several houses making their claim. I don't see why Roose would not inform Ramsey of what was happening during all this.

I don't understand your point about Luwin. Roose was at the the Twins or at the Ruby ford at the start of the book and Ramsey at the Dreadfort. They don't need Luwin to write to each other.

Communication occurs between castles via ravens or riders, so there is considerable. For instance Roose would have sent a report via raven to the Twins and a rider would have been sent to find Robb. They would have also presumably sent ravens north. Ravens can only fly between castles and if someone is on the field they could not have been contacted directly. A further problem would arise in the case their location is unknown. 

In Ramsay's case, regarding him raising the Dreadfort garrison and attacking Winterfell, he was a prisoner at Winterfell after he was arrested by Rodrick Cassel and when he was released by Theon he was pretending to be Reek. The only opportunity to contact his father would have been after he had returned to the Dreadfort and then he would have had to wait for a response. There shouldn't have been enough time for that, since what prompted his release from Winterfell was that Rodrick Cassel was returning to reclaim it. 

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4 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Communication occurs between castles via ravens or riders, so there is considerable. For instance Roose would have sent a report via raven to the Twins and a rider would have been sent to find Robb. They would have also presumably sent ravens north. Ravens can only fly between castles and if someone is on the field they could not have been contacted directly. A further problem would arise in the case their location is unknown. 

 

We see Robb send ravens from Ashmark to Winterfell, we see Stannis send ravens to all the lords in the realm. Roose sending a raven from the Twins to the Dreadfort is much easier to be done.

7 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

In Ramsay's case, regarding him raising the Dreadfort garrison and attacking Winterfell, he was a prisoner at Winterfell after he was arrested by Rodrick Cassel and when he was released by Theon he was pretending to be Reek. The only opportunity to contact his father would have been after he had returned to the Dreadfort and then he would have had to wait for a response. There shouldn't have been enough time for that, since what prompted his release from Winterfell was that Rodrick Cassel was returning to reclaim it. 

I don't belive that Roose ordered the attack on Winterfell, but I belive he did ordered the kidnaping of Donella.

Very diferent moments.

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12 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

We see Robb send ravens from Ashmark to Winterfell, we see Stannis send ravens to all the lords in the realm. Roose sending a raven from the Twins to the Dreadfort is much easier to be done.

I don't belive that Roose ordered the attack on Winterfell, but I belive he did ordered the kidnaping of Donella.

Very diferent moments.

Could be.

The whole point is that a preconceived plan to overthrow the Starks seems implausible at the start of the campaign. 

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50 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

I belive he did ordered the kidnaping of Donella.

Quote

The elder Bolton sighed. "Again? Surely you misspeak. You never slew Lord Eddard's sons, those two sweet boys we loved so well. That was Theon Turncloak's work, remember? How many of our grudging friends do you imagine we'd retain if the truth were known? Only Lady Barbrey, whom you would turn into a pair of boots … inferior boots. Human skin is not as tough as cowhide and will not wear as well. By the king's decree you are now a Bolton. Try and act like one. Tales are told of you, Ramsay. I hear them everywhere. People fear you."

"Good."

"You are mistaken. It is not good. No tales were ever told of me. Do you think I would be sitting here if it were otherwise? Your amusements are your own, I will not chide you on that count, but you must be more discreet. A peaceful land, a quiet people. That has always been my rule. Make it yours."

It's not his style. Ramsay however, fits like a glove, or boot. 

 

Edited by Hugorfonics
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