Who really hired the catspaw?

[John Suburbs]

7 hours ago, Ran said:

Varys in the actual text you quote reveals himself explicitly to not be omniscient. He can only guess based on the information he has that the Lannisters did it to try and hide their secret, because to him that makes the most sense. But he doesn't actually know.

Can someone explain to me what information in ASoS will lead to any conclusion other than Joffrey? George said that was the book that would answer the question, and all the information we get there is for Joffrey -- his knowledge of Valyrian steel, his awkwardness when Tyrion describes the dagger to him, the information about Joffrey overhearing Robert. 

Some people still point to Mance and his bag of silver trying to destabilize the realm before he launches his own attack. I don't buy it, but that's still out there in the fandom. There's people who insist that Ned is still alive too.

Yes, George said we would know who sent the catspaw, and the answer is Joffrey. What we don't have is a clear rationale for why he did it. Simple cruelty? Doubtful; Joffrey had been away for more than a week. What good is cruelty when your not around to see the misery it causes? Impress his father? Equally implausible because there is no way Robert would know it was Joffrey unless he told him. And look what happened when Joffrey brought him a dead cat. What would he expect to happen when he says he killed the crippled, comatose son of his best friend in the world -- the boy Robert had been praying for day and night since the day he fell?

So I point to the man who benefitted from all this as the real culprit here. People say Littlefinger could not have been involved because he didn't know about Bran's fall. But he doesn't have to. Consider:

Before the royal party left King's Landing, Petyr pulls Joffrey aside and tells him that Ned becoming Hand would be very bad; bad for Robert, bad for Cersei, bad for House Lannister, bad for the realm, but most of all, bad for Joffrey's eventual ascension (a prediction that would seem prescient a short while later.) Alas, Petyr would say, the only thing that could prevent this is if some sudden tragedy were to befall House Start, oh, something like the death of one of his children.

So Joffrey arrives at Winterfell with murder on his mind. And might we reconsider the folly of challenging the older, better trained Robb Stark to live steel? Maybe a little nightsoil on Joffrey's blade would have done the trick?

But then Bran falls and it would appear to Joff that the problem has resolved itself. When Ned comes south anyway, however, Joffrey sends the catspaw back to kill Bran, hoping this will send Ned home, and scotch his own betrothal in the process.

And when they get all the way to the Trident and word still has not reached them about Bran's death, Joff would know the catspaw failed so he set his sights on his next victim: Sansa.

[Sandy Clegg]

11 hours ago, Ran said:

Can someone explain to me what information in ASoS will lead to any conclusion other than Joffrey? George said that was the book that would answer the question, and all the information we get there is for Joffrey -- his knowledge of Valyrian steel, his awkwardness when Tyrion describes the dagger to him, the information about Joffrey overhearing Robert. 

I'm happy with the Joffrey solution if George claims the mystery was solved in ASOS, as there is no other part where the attempted murder is referenced. 

I think the problem is that it's left a little fuzzy, with Tyrion himself unsure as to the motive:

Quote

I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger's knife.

The why of it still eluded him. Simple cruelty, perhaps? His nephew had that in abundance.

If George wanted to hammer it home, he could have had Tyrion feeling a little more convinced. Instead, Tyrion's small doubt  becomes a lingering doubt in some readers' minds. We have no witnesses to Joff's plan, unless e.g. Tommen somehow knows and decides to open up in the next book.  

Because that's how it is sometimes in real life. You don't get all the answers. So this is George's more realistic version of a murder mystery solution. We don't get a drawing room exposition scene with the suspects all sat in a semi-circle. Just Tyrion's imperfect musings. 

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Some people still point to Mance and his bag of silver trying to destabilize the realm before he launches his own attack. I don't buy it, but that's still out there in the fandom. There's people who insist that Ned is still alive too.

Yes, George said we would know who sent the catspaw, and the answer is Joffrey. What we don't have is a clear rationale for why he did it. Simple cruelty? Doubtful; Joffrey had been away for more than a week. What good is cruelty when your not around to see the misery it causes? Impress his father? Equally implausible because there is no way Robert would know it was Joffrey unless he told him. And look what happened when Joffrey brought him a dead cat. What would he expect to happen when he says he killed the crippled, comatose son of his best friend in the world -- the boy Robert had been praying for day and night since the day he fell?

So I point to the man who benefitted from all this as the real culprit here. People say Littlefinger could not have been involved because he didn't know about Bran's fall. But he doesn't have to. Consider:

Before the royal party left King's Landing, Petyr pulls Joffrey aside and tells him that Ned becoming Hand would be very bad; bad for Robert, bad for Cersei, bad for House Lannister, bad for the realm, but most of all, bad for Joffrey's eventual ascension (a prediction that would seem prescient a short while later.) Alas, Petyr would say, the only thing that could prevent this is if some sudden tragedy were to befall House Start, oh, something like the death of one of his children.

So Joffrey arrives at Winterfell with murder on his mind. And might we reconsider the folly of challenging the older, better trained Robb Stark to live steel? Maybe a little nightsoil on Joffrey's blade would have done the trick?

But then Bran falls and it would appear to Joff that the problem has resolved itself. When Ned comes south anyway, however, Joffrey sends the catspaw back to kill Bran, hoping this will send Ned home, and scotch his own betrothal in the process.

And when they get all the way to the Trident and word still has not reached them about Bran's death, Joff would know the catspaw failed so he set his sights on his next victim: Sansa.

Bran fell on the very last day of the visit, yet nothing has happened by then.  They're leaving the next day.  What's Joffrey waiting for - divine intervention?  

You have a castle that is probably a modern safety inspector's nightmare, and a bunch of kids that like doing dangerous stuff for fun.  Setting up an accident should be child's play. Yet we hear of no unusual occurrences, much less accidents or near-accidents.  Even the live steel challenge was never followed up. Sorry, but Joffrey was not planning to kill anybody.  Even the catspaw I think was more of an impulse.

[Mourning Star]

14 hours ago, Ran said:

Varys in the actual text you quote reveals himself explicitly to not be omniscient. He can only guess based on the information he has that the Lannisters did it to try and hide their secret, because to him that makes the most sense. But he doesn't actually know.

I agree that Varys is not omniscient and is only surmising that the Lannister's are behind the plot.

"The fools tried to kill his son, and what's worse, they made a mummer's farce of it. He's not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other's throats, whether we will it or no."

A Game of Thrones - Arya III

14 hours ago, Ran said:

Can someone explain to me what information in ASoS will lead to any conclusion other than Joffrey? George said that was the book that would answer the question, and all the information we get there is for Joffrey -- his knowledge of Valyrian steel, his awkwardness when Tyrion describes the dagger to him, the information about Joffrey overhearing Robert. 

"The Wall can stop an army, but not a man alone. I took a lute and a bag of silver, scaled the ice near Long Barrow, walked a few leagues south of the New Gift, and bought a horse. All in all I made much better time than Robert, who was traveling with a ponderous great wheelhouse to keep his queen in comfort. A day south of Winterfell I came up on him and fell in with his company. Freeriders and hedge knights are always attaching themselves to royal processions, in hopes of finding service with the king, and my lute gained me easy acceptance." He laughed. "I know every bawdy song that's ever been made, north or south of the Wall. So there you are. The night your father feasted Robert, I sat in the back of his hall on a bench with the other freeriders, listening to Orland of Oldtown play the high harp and sing of dead kings beneath the sea. I betook of your lord father's meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp . . . and made passing note of Lord Eddard's children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels."

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

The only hard evidence we are given is the Valyrian blade and the bag of silver. The blade was taken from the baggage train.

But, I believe Tyrion's mistaken conclusion that it was Joff, based more on his hate of Joff than any evidence, does provide the reader with additional textual clues.

He ought to have seen it long ago. Jaime would never send another man to do his killing, and Cersei was too cunning to use a knife that could be traced back to her, but Joff, arrogant vicious stupid little wretch that he was . . .
He remembered a cold morning when he'd climbed down the steep exterior steps from Winterfell's library to find Prince Joffrey jesting with the Hound about killing wolves. Send a dog to kill a wolf, he said. Even Joffrey was not so foolish as to command Sandor Clegane to slay a son of Eddard Stark, however; the Hound would have gone to Cersei. Instead the boy found his catspaw among the unsavory lot of freeriders, merchants, and camp followers who'd attached themselves to the king's party as they made their way north. Some poxy lackwit willing to risk his life for a prince's favor and a little coin. Tyrion wondered whose idea it had been to wait until Robert left Winterfell before opening Bran's throat. Joff's, most like. No doubt he thought it was the height of cunning.
The prince's own dagger had a jeweled pommel and inlaid goldwork on the blade, Tyrion seemed to recall. At least Joff had not been stupid enough to use that. Instead he went poking among his father's weapons. Robert Baratheon was a man of careless generosity, and would have given his son any dagger he wanted . . . but Tyrion guessed that the boy had just taken it. Robert had come to Winterfell with a long tail of knights and retainers, a huge wheelhouse, and a baggage train. No doubt some diligent servant had made certain that the king's weapons went with him, in case he should desire any of them.
The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke. I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger's knife.
The why of it still eluded him. Simple cruelty, perhaps? His nephew had that in abundance. It was all Tyrion could do not to retch up all the wine he'd drunk, piss in his breeches, or both. He squirmed uncomfortably. He ought to have held his tongue at breakfast. The boy knows I know now. My big mouth will be the death of me, I swear it.

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

Tyrion is literally piss drunk at the point he is coming to this conclusion.

Joffrey would not be a stranger to Valyrian Steel after Ned's execution, he even uses the two handed executioners swing when cutting the book Tyrion gave him.

Tyrion misquotes the, "send a dog to kill a wolf," line. I think this is meant to call us back to the section below from Game of Thrones, and also he leaves us with the question of the why of it.

His legs were stiff and sore as he eased down off the bench. He massaged some life back into them and limped heavily to the table where the septon was snoring softly, his head pillowed on an open book in front of him. Tyrion glanced at the title. A life of the Grand Maester Aethelmure, no wonder. "Chayle," he said softly. The young man jerked up, blinking, confused, the crystal of his order swinging wildly on its silver chain. "I'm off to break my fast. See that you return the books to the shelves. Be gentle with the Valyrian scrolls, the parchment is very dry. Ayrmidon's Engines of War is quite rare, and yours is the only complete copy I've ever seen." Chayle gaped at him, still half-asleep. Patiently, Tyrion repeated his instructions, then clapped the septon on the shoulder and left him to his tasks.
Outside, Tyrion swallowed a lungful of the cold morning air and began his laborious descent of the steep stone steps that corkscrewed around the exterior of the library tower. It was slow going; the steps were cut high and narrow, while his legs were short and twisted. The rising sun had not yet cleared the walls of Winterfell, but the men were already hard at it in the yard below. Sandor Clegane's rasping voice drifted up to him. "The boy is a long time dying. I wish he would be quicker about it."
Tyrion glanced down and saw the Hound standing with young Joffrey as squires swarmed around them. "At least he dies quietly," the prince replied. "It's the wolf that makes the noise. I could scarce sleep last night."
Clegane cast a long shadow across the hard-packed earth as his squire lowered the black helm over his head. "I could silence the creature, if it please you," he said through his open visor. His boy placed a longsword in his hand. He tested the weight of it, slicing at the cold morning air. Behind him, the yard rang to the clangor of steel on steel.
The notion seemed to delight the prince. "Send a dog to kill a dog!" he exclaimed. "Winterfell is so infested with wolves, the Starks would never miss one."
Tyrion hopped off the last step onto the yard. "I beg to differ, nephew," he said. "The Starks can count past six. Unlike some princes I might name."
Joffrey had the grace at least to blush.
"A voice from nowhere," Sandor said. He peered through his helm, looking this way and that. "Spirits of the air!"
The prince laughed, as he always laughed when his bodyguard did this mummer's farce. Tyrion was used to it. "Down here."
The tall man peered down at the ground, and pretended to notice him. "The little lord Tyrion," he said. "My pardons. I did not see you standing there."
"I am in no mood for your insolence today." Tyrion turned to his nephew. "Joffrey, it is past time you called on Lord Eddard and his lady, to offer them your comfort."
Joffrey looked as petulant as only a boy prince can look. "What good will my comfort do them?"
"None," Tyrion said. "Yet it is expected of you. Your absence has been noted."
"The Stark boy is nothing to me," Joffrey said. "I cannot abide the wailing of women."

A Game of Thrones - Tyrion I

Joffrey is annoyed by the howling of the wolves, and literally says that the boy means nothing to him. Nor does he seemingly take action against Tyrion, despite Tyrion thinking he's given away the fact that he knows about Joff's supposed catspaw.

The phrase, mummer's farce appears again, this time in reference to The Hounds antics, pretending he can't see Tyrion. Except, in retrospect, there was a person secretly in Winterfell, Mance Rayder, who is also mentioned remarkably early in the story, for someone we only meet later.

This brings us back to the question Tyrion left us with, the why of it.

I don't think Mance went all the way to Winterfell just to see Robert, in what otherwise amounts to little or nothing in the plot.

And, I believe Mance has a double motive. First, as Varys points out, the mummer's farce sets the lion and the wolf at each other's throats. But, this would likely have been a crime of opportunity, as it's hard to imagine Mance would know that Bran would fall and end up crippled.

Second, and maybe the real reason for Mance's visit to Winterfell in the first place, is the library and it's ancient information. The fire was seen by everyone as a diversion from the catspaw, but I'd suggest that it was as much a target if not more, and whatever Mance found is what led him to digging in the Frostfangs. Tyrion spending his night's there probably played a role in waiting for the king's party to leave as well.

"They're dogs and he's a wolf," said Jon. "They know he's not their kind." No more than I am yours. But he had his duty to be mindful of, the task Qhorin Halfhand had laid upon him as they shared that final fire—to play the part of turncloak, and find whatever it was that the wildlings had been seeking in the bleak cold wilderness of the Frostfangs. "Some power," Qhorin had named it to the Old Bear, but he had died before learning what it was, or whether Mance Rayder had found it with his digging.

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

So, in conclusion, I think Mance is the shadowcat behind the catspaw assassin who tried to kill Bran, and the evidence was given to the reader in A Storm of Swords.

Edited July 10, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Ran]

4 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

So, in conclusion, I think Mance is the shadowcat behind the catspaw assassin who tried to kill Bran, and the evidence was given to the reader in A Storm of Swords.

And yet GRRM says there was evidence in the first two books that might lead someone to surmise who did it.

I promise you, after ACoK, not a single person suggested Mance Rayder was behind it -- we knew nothing of him, and certainly did not know he was present in Winterfell. It was Cersei, Littlefinger, Jaime, Varys, or (truly) Joffrey (very few people argued it, but they definitely did argue it).

Edited July 10, 2023 by Ran

[Mourning Star]

11 minutes ago, Ran said:

And yet GRRM says there was evidence in the first two books that might lead someone to surmise who did it.

I promise you, after ACoK, not a single person suggested Mance Rayder was behind it -- we knew nothing of him. It was Cersei, Littlefinger, Jaime, Varys, or (truly) Joffrey (very few people argued it, but they did).

It would have been a stretch to predict that Mance was in Winterfell during Robert's visit, but that he was involved in the catspaw? Someone might surmise it. Seems a lot more likely than the child who can't count and doesn't care about Bran, even in A Game of Thrones.

That said, I first read the books when Storm of Swords released, so I can't really have a personal opinion on what I'd have thought before that. But, once you learn Mance was there... with a bag of silver and a cat's paw slashed cloak? Seems like a dunk.

The man had been taken outside a small holdfast in the hills. Robb thought he was a wildling, his sword sworn to Mance Rayder, the King-beyond-the-Wall. It made Bran's skin prickle to think of it.

A Game of Thrones - Bran I

"You're as stupid as you are ugly, Hali," said the tall woman. "The boy's worth nothing dead, but alive … gods be damned, think what Mance would give to have Benjen Stark's own blood to hostage!"

A Game of Thrones - Bran V

Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower. He's never tasted winter.

A Game of Thrones - Bran VI

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Nevets]

29 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

It would have been a stretch to predict that Mance was in Winterfell during Robert's visit, but that he was involved in the catspaw? Someone might surmise it. Seems a lot more likely than the child who can't count and doesn't care about Bran, even in A Game of Thrones.

That said, I first read the books when Storm of Swords released, so I can't really have a personal opinion on what I'd have thought before that. But, once you learn Mance was there... with a bag of silver and a cat's paw slashed cloak? Seems like a dunk.

The man had been taken outside a small holdfast in the hills. Robb thought he was a wildling, his sword sworn to Mance Rayder, the King-beyond-the-Wall. It made Bran's skin prickle to think of it.

A Game of Thrones - Bran I

"You're as stupid as you are ugly, Hali," said the tall woman. "The boy's worth nothing dead, but alive … gods be damned, think what Mance would give to have Benjen Stark's own blood to hostage!"

A Game of Thrones - Bran V

Mance thinks he'll fight, the brave sweet stubborn man, like the white walkers were no more than rangers, but what does he know? He can call himself King-beyond-the-Wall all he likes, but he's still just another old black crow who flew down from the Shadow Tower. He's never tasted winter.

A Game of Thrones - Bran VI

 

Must have been an awesomely big bag of silver.  He tells Jon he used some to buy a horse, and probably had other travel expenses as well.  I doubt he was planning an assassination.  He's out to gather information, not cause trouble.  Besides, the last thing he wants is Ned Stark hanging around Winterfell.  Halfway across the country in Kings Landing is great.  If Mance has to take on the North, he would much rather it be led by an unknown teenager with no experience than the famed Lord of Winterfell with two wars under his belt.

Anyway, what's he still doing there?  Everybody's getting ready to leave.  He should be long gone.  He's got a kingdom to run, or at least make sure everyone is going the same direction.

How would he gain access to the library?  This isn't a public library on the corner anyone can walk into and start browsing.  You need permission just to enter.  No one knows Mance, and no one is going to let him in.

I don't like Joffrey that much for it, but he's the best of a bad lot.  Mance makes no real sense.

[Aebram]

15 hours ago, Ran said:

Can someone explain to me what information in ASoS will lead to any conclusion other than Joffrey? George said that was the book that would answer the question, and all the information we get there is for Joffrey

I don't think that's true. You and I have already discussed this . Rereading my own posts, I see that on January 22nd, we were discussing the email from GRRM to your friend Jeff, and I wrote:

Quote

 

But the email only tells us that the answer will be somewhere in ASOS. It doesn't tell us who the culprit is, or even which chapter contains the evidence.

The arguments for Mance and Cersei both make use of text that is found in other parts of the same book.  And the references to Joffrey consists entirely of other characters guessing that he did it; none of them present any hard evidence.

So I think that the other theories still have merit ... unless you know something that the rest of us don't? Has George ever explicitly said or written that Joffrey is the culprit?

 

More recently, on January 29th, I wrote:

Quote

 

If an author writes a mystery subplot into a story, does it make sense that he will have some characters simply blurt out the answer? It seems too obvious. It seems like it could be a misdirection.

 

Also, in rereading my posts just now, I noticed that in the email to Jeff, the George said that he thought the answer could be figured out from material in the first two books, although he wasn't quite sure. That ties in nicely with my most recent clue, which is in the first book.

If you aren't persuaded, you're welcome to scroll back and read all of my posts. (There aren't very many.) I think you'll find that, although I didn't come up with smoking-gun proof, there are reasonable arguments that Joffrey didn't arrange the murder. The only other characters who have any motive are Jaime and Cersei (and possibly Mance, although I think someone found a strong counter-argument about that); and we know from reading Jaime's thoughts that he didn't do it. Hence, I consider Cersei the most likely culprit. She's cruel enough to do it, and dumb enough to do it badly. I've discussed all this in some detail in my earlier posts.

[csuszka1948]

2 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

I don't think Mance went all the way to Winterfell just to see Robert, in what otherwise amounts to little or nothing in the plot.

And, I believe Mance has a double motive. First, as Varys points out, the mummer's farce sets the lion and the wolf at each other's throats. But, this would likely have been a crime of opportunity, as it's hard to imagine Mance would know that Bran would fall and end up crippled.

 

 

This makes no sense. Mance had no way to know that sending an assassin to kill Bran would set the lion and the wolf at each other's throats, because he didn't know about Lysa's secret letter to Cat and the extent of hate between Lannisters and Starks.

[TheBlackSwan]

1 hour ago, Aebram said:

The only other characters who have any motive are Jaime and Cersei (and possibly Mance, although I think someone found a strong counter-argument about that); and we know from reading Jaime's thoughts that he didn't do it. Hence, I consider Cersei the most likely culprit. She's cruel enough to do it, and dumb enough to do it badly.

But wouldn't she tell Jaime? He tried to kill Bran, so I doubt she'd be ashamed to tell him she'd finished the job so they'd be safe.

[Aebram]

3 hours ago, TheBlackSwan said:

But wouldn't she tell Jaime? He tried to kill Bran, so I doubt she'd be ashamed to tell him she'd finished the job so they'd be safe.

In Storm 72, Cersei told Jaime that she had lied to him a thousand times. We know that she had a sexual affair with their cousin Lancel while Jaime was away at war. So it seems clear that she was keeping some secrets from him; we don't know how many.

[Corvo the Crow]

13 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Some people still point to Mance and his bag of silver trying to destabilize the realm before he launches his own attack. I don't buy it, but that's still out there in the fandom. There's people who insist that Ned is still alive too

Of course he is. He warged into a pigeon. Too bad Arya killed that pigeon though, stupid girl gave no thought on how she was able to catch the pigeon, Ned was trying to communicate. Stupid Ned too, should’ve fed his daughter first!

But seriously, I don’t buy into Mance did it either but it has some merits, more than LF doing it. Joff isn’t the most subtle person, If LF played Joff like that he would’ve immediately ordered Ned captured and executed as soon as he became king but it doesn’t happen until after Ned makes his move.

[the trees have eyes]

On 7/10/2023 at 8:01 AM, Aebram said:

Good morrow to all,

I think I found another clue to this mystery. A discussion on a different topic motivated me to reread the conversation between Illyrio and Varys, as overheard by Arya in the dungeons of the Red Keep.

This is all rather vague, but we can draw a few interesting conclusions from it. The reference to bastards tells us that Varys is concerned that Ned will soon learn the truth about Cersei's children.  The reference to the wolf and the lion tells us that, when Ned learns the truth, he will have anger towards House Lannister. Therefore, "the fools" who tried to kill Bran must be Lannisters, or Lannister allies.

So Varys thinks that the attempt on Bran's life was motivated by a desire to keep Cersei's secret, not by Joffrey feeling some childish resentment towards Bran. Varys may be mistaken, of course; but he's not a man to bet against.

 

He's half right, though.  "The Lannisters" did try to kill Bran to protect their secret because he stumbled on Jaime and Cersei in flagrante. 

If you have no further information or merely heard from Catelyn what she thought had happened (as Varys did first hand), the follow up attempt at assassination that you're referencing looks very like it was meant to finish the job and guard a "secret" Varys knows perfectly well.  He simply has confirmation bias here as does, e.g., Stannis in believing the Lannisters murdered Jon Arryn (I doubt he received a helpful secret letter from Lysa accusing them to help him reach that conclusion).

Unlike Varys in AGOT we have the narrator steering us in Tyrion and Jaime's chapters in ASOS to the answer.  Amid all the plotting and manipulation there is random unpredictability in the form of rogue actors muddying the waters and causing confusion that the author helpfully resolves post hoc.  As before, you might prefer a different resolution but it's what GRRM wrote. 

[Mourning Star]

 

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

Must have been an awesomely big bag of silver.  He tells Jon he used some to buy a horse, and probably had other travel expenses as well.

Cat was impressed:

"It's good to know my son's life was not sold cheaply," Catelyn said bitterly.

I have to say this is one of the funnier objections I've heard.

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

  I doubt he was planning an assassination. 

On this I agree, and for the simple reason that would be true of any suspect, nobody could have planned for Bran to fall.

Whoever sent the catspaw was improvising, but seemingly in a rather rational way.

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

He's out to gather information, not cause trouble.

Why do you think this? He's about to gather the Wildlings and attack the realm.

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

  Besides, the last thing he wants is Ned Stark hanging around Winterfell.  Halfway across the country in Kings Landing is great.  If Mance has to take on the North, he would much rather it be led by an unknown teenager with no experience than the famed Lord of Winterfell with two wars under his belt.

Ned had already left Winterfell.

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

Anyway, what's he still doing there?  Everybody's getting ready to leave.  He should be long gone.  He's got a kingdom to run, or at least make sure everyone is going the same direction.

Again, the assassin was sent after the king's party had left. The Catspaw had been waiting in the stables, which as Hallis Mollen tells us, is no great trick. If it worked for one man, why not two?

Again, I think Mance was interested in finding something in the WInterfell Library, and what he found led him to gathering the Wildlings in the Frostfangs, where they were digging for something, including seemingly digging up ancient graves of giants.

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

How would he gain access to the library?  This isn't a public library on the corner anyone can walk into and start browsing.  You need permission just to enter.  No one knows Mance, and no one is going to let him in.

Climbing over the Wall, no problem. Sneaking into Winterfell, piece of cake. Getting into a Library? Preposterous! 

I'm just going to trust that Mance is a capable sneakthief given what we know of him and his exploits.

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

I don't like Joffrey that much for it, but he's the best of a bad lot.  Mance makes no real sense.

Clearly I disagree. It seems more like people are searching for reasons it can't be true because they know Joff is a bad answer but they don't want to change their preconceived notions.

13 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

This makes no sense. Mance had no way to know that sending an assassin to kill Bran would set the lion and the wolf at each other's throats, because he didn't know about Lysa's secret letter to Cat and the extent of hate between Lannisters and Starks.

Varys didn't know about Lysa's letter either. Nor is that the origin of Ned's dislike of the Lannisters, it certainly has nothing to do with the Lannisters' feelings as they don't know about it either.

It would take no great observer to see the animosity between the Lannisters and the Starks, and Mance was a self described observer.

I betook of your lord father's meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp

In fact, at the feast where Mance admits to being, they were hostile enough for it to be obvious to a child:

Jon had noticed that too. A bastard had to learn to notice things, to read the truth that people hid behind their eyes. His father was observing all the courtesies, but there was tightness in him that Jon had seldom seen before. He said little, looking out over the hall with hooded eyes, seeing nothing. Two seats away, the king had been drinking heavily all night. His broad face was flushed behind his great black beard. He made many a toast, laughed loudly at every jest, and attacked each dish like a starving man, but beside him the queen seemed as cold as an ice sculpture. "The queen is angry too," Jon told his uncle in a low, quiet voice. "Father took the king down to the crypts this afternoon. The queen didn't want him to go."
Benjen gave Jon a careful, measuring look. "You don't miss much, do you, Jon? We could use a man like you on the Wall."

 

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Nevets said:

Bran fell on the very last day of the visit, yet nothing has happened by then.  They're leaving the next day.  What's Joffrey waiting for - divine intervention?  

You have a castle that is probably a modern safety inspector's nightmare, and a bunch of kids that like doing dangerous stuff for fun.  Setting up an accident should be child's play. Yet we hear of no unusual occurrences, much less accidents or near-accidents.  Even the live steel challenge was never followed up. Sorry, but Joffrey was not planning to kill anybody.  Even the catspaw I think was more of an impulse.

He's expecting Ned not to come south. He only sent the catspaw after that didn't happen.

Only Bran liked doing dangerous stuff for fun, as far as I can tell. 

The live steel challenge was denied by Cassel. Joffrey can't very well attack Robb and then have him die from sepsis. 

[John Suburbs]

12 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Of course he is. He warged into a pigeon. Too bad Arya killed that pigeon though, stupid girl gave no thought on how she was able to catch the pigeon, Ned was trying to communicate. Stupid Ned too, should’ve fed his daughter first!

But seriously, I don’t buy into Mance did it either but it has some merits, more than LF doing it. Joff isn’t the most subtle person, If LF played Joff like that he would’ve immediately ordered Ned captured and executed as soon as he became king but it doesn’t happen until after Ned makes his move.

Ned is already Hand by that time, has been for months. And Ned was arrested as soon as Joffrey became king, that very day, in fact. Joffrey cannot order his execution because he is under his mother's regency. That's why he went around her back. And who might have convinced him to do that, I wonder?

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think the explanation in the text is weak too, but to be honest, that's the fault of the author. And I supposed it's tied up in the major changes to the original plot. 

[Corvo the Crow]

Illyrio.

[Corvo the Crow]

On 7/11/2023 at 7:16 PM, John Suburbs said:

Ned is already Hand by that time, has been for months. And Ned was arrested as soon as Joffrey became king, that very day, in fact. Joffrey cannot order his execution because he is under his mother's regency. That's why he went around her back. And who might have convinced him to do that, I wonder?

Which still happens AFTER Ned’s attempt.

[Hippocras]

I tend to agree with those who think Littlefinger was involved. I think he had some kind of agent embedded in the King's entourage when they arrived at Winterfell who already had instructions to sow discord between the Lannisters and the Starks. That agent sent word quickly via the White Knife to White Harbour as soon as they learned of Bran's fall. From White Harbour, word quickly travelled to the Fingers. There, Littlefinger gathered prisoners to send to the Watch, accompanied by the catspaw who would have gone unremarked among a group of rapists and thieves. Whoever Littlefinger's agent in the King's entourage was, they had the ear of Joffrey and probably had a role in egging Joffrey on in his antagonism towards the Starks long before the fall. So it was not difficult from that start point to put the idea in Joffrey's head that someone should be hired to kill Bran, (and oh look, I have just the right person already available) as soon as they got a reply from Littlefinger.

Littlefinger operated by whispering in Joffrey's ear, and this was not the only occasion. It was Joffrey's decision to follow the suggestion. Joffrey's decision to actually hire the catspaw, and from Littlefinger's perspective, killing Bran was helpful to his purposes but not necessary, since he had already convinced Lysa to murder Jon and had already planned her letter blaming the Lannisters for it. If Joffrey followed the suggestions, great! as far as he was concerned. More chaos, more animosity between Lannisters and Starks. But if Joffrey chose not to follow the suggestion then no big deal.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Hippocras