NFL Draft 2023: Little Black Books edition

[briantw]

 

Don't forget, the Colts are also a shitshow. 

[Rhom]

Ugh.  I need the Bosa hold out to end.  In the last day or so, every Niners site I visit is filled with unsourced comments swearing that the Niners are going to trade him or that he is going to hold out until week 8.  

I just want this all done.

[horangi]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Ugh.  I need the Bosa hold out to end.  In the last day or so, every Niners site I visit is filled with unsourced comments swearing that the Niners are going to trade him or that he is going to hold out until week 8.  

I just want this all done.

As a Seahawks fan, I think that Bosa, the incredible player that he is, should take a stand for every penny he is worth and hold out for 8 weeks of the schedule. The last 8 weeks of the schedule.

[dbunting]

6 minutes ago, horangi said:

As a Seahawks fan, I think that Bosa, the incredible player that he is, should take a stand for every penny he is worth and hold out for 8 weeks of the schedule. The last 8 weeks of the schedule.

Or sign a massive guaranteed contract then miss the season for a toe boo boo that is contagious and spreads to the QB room.

[mcbigski]

Pretty much none of the Taylor to Miami noise made any sense.  Miami wasn't going to send assets to pay an injured Taylor more than they offered to free agent Dalvin Cook.

[briantw]

15 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Pretty much none of the Taylor to Miami noise made any sense.  Miami wasn't going to send assets to pay an injured Taylor more than they offered to free agent Dalvin Cook.

Taylor is four years younger than Cook and has a lot less miles on him.  He deserves a significantly larger contract than Cook at this point in their respective careers.  He should be getting what Cook got during his first extension. 

[horangi]

2 minutes ago, briantw said:

Taylor is four years younger than Cook and has a lot less miles on him.  He deserves a significantly larger contract than Cook at this point in their respective careers.  He should be getting what Cook got during his first extension. 

Yeah its hard to find a reason for this mess beyond the owner having a bit of a Muskesque pique.  The Colts just recently signed their kicker to a 4 year 22.5 million dollar salary with 10 guaranteed (second highest in the league after Justin Tucker).  You'd think they could come to reasonable terms for one of the best backs in the league who, as you mentioned, should be good age-wise for the length of the contract. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

22 minutes ago, briantw said:

Taylor is four years younger than Cook and has a lot less miles on him.  He deserves a significantly larger contract than Cook at this point in their respective careers.  He should be getting what Cook got during his first extension. 

Cook's combined carries in college and the NFL: 1,969

Taylor's combined carries in college and the NFL: 1,682

He's four years younger, but he's been heavily overused. Henry fell in the draft in part because teams thought he had too many carries at Bama and Taylor had over 300 more at Wisconsin in the same amount of time. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[briantw]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Cook's combined carries in college and the NFL: 1,969

Taylor's combined carries in college and the NFL: 1,682

He's four years younger, but he's been heavily overused. Henry fell in the draft in part because teams thought he had too many carries at Bama and Taylor had over 300 more at Wisconsin in the same amount of time. 

And this concerns turned out to be meaningless for Henry, who has had over 1700 carries in the NFL alone and has been a productive workhorse for the past five seasons, including last year in his age 28 season.  

We’ve seen time and time again that the really elite RBs don’t fall off a cliff the way less talented backs do, and Taylor is only 24.  There’s no chance he doesn’t have at least two more productive seasons in him, and probably closer to five. 

[Maithanet]

31 minutes ago, briantw said:

We’ve seen time and time again that the really elite RBs don’t fall off a cliff the way less talented backs do, and Taylor is only 24.  There’s no chance he doesn’t have at least two more productive seasons in him, and probably closer to five. 

I feel like this is a self fulfilling prophecy.  A back is "really elite" because he maintains great production into his late 20s, otherwise he's a "less talented" back. 

Jamaal Charles was an exceptional running back in his early 20s (2008-2010), a very good one through his mid twenties (until 2014), and then disappeared completely once he turned 28.  Likewise Demarco Murray, Arian Foster, Larry Johnson, all were first team all-pros who were done by age 28. 

There's no way you can look at what Taylor has done and say it's better than Charles' first three years.  It isn't even close, Charles averaged almost a yard per carry more and was a better receiver. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

And this concerns turned out to be meaningless for Henry, who has had over 1700 carries in the NFL alone and has been a productive workhorse for the past five seasons, including last year in his age 28 season.  

He's a relative outlier though and by that logic getting Cook who is still good on a cheaper deal and it doesn't cost you any picks makes more sense. 

Quote

We’ve seen time and time again that the really elite RBs don’t fall off a cliff the way less talented backs do, and Taylor is only 24.  There’s no chance he doesn’t have at least two more productive seasons in him, and probably closer to five. 

Taylor and one great season and got hurt last year. It's also worth noting when he had said great year the Colts' line was awesome. Who knows what he'd be like playing behind a shit one. I don't think he's going to have a great year this season either assuming he doesn't get hurt. Richardson can't throw consistently at a pro level yet so it's safe to assume defenses are going to overplay the run. 

[Rhom]

21 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I feel like this is a self fulfilling prophecy.  A back is "really elite" because he maintains great production into his late 20s, otherwise he's a "less talented" back. 

Jamaal Charles was an exceptional running back in his early 20s (2008-2010), a very good one through his mid twenties (until 2014), and then disappeared completely once he turned 28.  Likewise Demarco Murray, Arian Foster, Larry Johnson, all were first team all-pros who were done by age 28. 

There's no way you can look at what Taylor has done and say it's better than Charles' first three years.  It isn't even close, Charles averaged almost a yard per carry more and was a better receiver. 

This brings up a point that I heard in a promo clip for Mike Greenberg's radio show.  What would a Hall of Fame running back look like now?  We know the historical numbers of HoF backs.  But now that offenses have changed so much and teams are not committing to older backs, how do you define a modern HoF career at the running back position?

[Maithanet]

23 minutes ago, Rhom said:

This brings up a point that I heard in a promo clip for Mike Greenberg's radio show.  What would a Hall of Fame running back look like now?  We know the historical numbers of HoF backs.  But now that offenses have changed so much and teams are not committing to older backs, how do you define a modern HoF career at the running back position?

It's a fair question.  Presumably some will rise up and display exemplary production for at least a modest period.  I imagine that relatively few running backs drafted from 2010 onward will make the Hall of Fame.  Four backs drafted in the 90s to made the HoF (Martin, Davis, Faulk, and Smith, plus Sanders from 1989).  Only one has made it since then (Tomlinson) and there's really only one other lock out there (Peterson).  Am I missing someone?  If you compare say, Marshawn Lynch with Marshall Faulk and Faulk has more production as a runner, about the same y/a numbers and vastly better receiving stats. 

Of guys currently active, it is pretty hard to make a case for any of them to be in the same class as someone like Faulk or Tomlinson. 

[Rhom]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

It's a fair question.  Presumably some will rise up and display exemplary production for at least a modest period.  I imagine that relatively few running backs drafted from 2010 onward will make the Hall of Fame.  Four backs drafted in the 90s to made the HoF (Martin, Davis, Faulk, and Smith, plus Sanders from 1989).  Only one has made it since then (Tomlinson) and there's really only one other lock out there (Peterson).  Am I missing someone?  If you compare say, Marshawn Lynch with Marshall Faulk and Faulk has more production as a runner, about the same y/a numbers and vastly better receiving stats. 

Of guys currently active, it is pretty hard to make a case for any of them to be in the same class as someone like Faulk or Tomlinson. 

Frank Gore will get consideration, but that's more because of longevity than anything else.  

[dbunting]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Frank Gore will get consideration, but that's more because of longevity than anything else.  

16 years, exactly 16,000 rushing yards.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Terrell Davis should be the modern standard for getting in. His rookie year was solid, his next two seasons were excellent, in his fourth year he was clearly the best RB in the League and then he barely played. Excellence > duration is the better measurement. For example, I think Gurley should have qualified if he didn't get hurt and the Rams had won the Owl in 2018. Maybe he should anyways.

More importantly though, the way RBs are paid has to change. The HoF is nice, but I think most would rather win at the bank. 

[Maithanet]

The highest paid running back this year is Robinson, a guy who has never played an NFL snap.  For most positions if you get a top 5 player at their position in the draft, you are getting a steal (from a moneyball perspective).  But for running backs, getting first round pick money is about as good as it gets. 

[dbunting]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Terrell Davis should be the modern standard for getting in. His rookie year was solid, his next two seasons were excellent, in his fourth year he was clearly the best RB in the League and then he barely played. Excellence > duration is the better measurement. For example, I think Gurley should have qualified if he didn't get hurt and the Rams had won the Owl in 2018. Maybe he should anyways.

More importantly though, the way RBs are paid has to change. The HoF is nice, but I think most would rather win at the bank. 

So the hall of a couple great years?

I do agree that the RB's are getting screwed right now. They are used, abused and tossed aside. I have no idea how to fix it from the RB prospective either. 

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The highest paid running back this year is Robinson, a guy who has never played an NFL snap.  For most positions if you get a top 5 player at their position in the draft, you are getting a steal (from a moneyball perspective).  But for running backs, getting first round pick money is about as good as it gets. 

Not sure where this comes from? What I looked up shows Bijan is 16th at 5.48mill. McCaffery at 16mill is number one.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, dbunting said:

So the hall of a couple great years?

I do agree that the RB's are getting screwed right now. They are used, abused and tossed aside. I have no idea how to fix it from the RB prospective either.  

Guns N' Roses got into the Rock and Roll HoF off the success of one album. Likewise RBs should get in for a dominate period. Otherwise almost no one at the position will ever get in while okay QBs will because they can be compilers. 

And the solution is obvious, but will never happen: end the salary cap and the draft. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[Maithanet]

13 hours ago, dbunting said:

Not sure where this comes from? What I looked up shows Bijan is 16th at 5.48mill. McCaffery at 16mill is number one.  

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2023/running-back/cash/

I think that includes signing bonuses in the year they are given, not across the contract, and thus Bijan is highest.