The Ukraine War: Casus Belgorod

[Werthead]

All this chaos around the border is distracting people from the front, which is probably the intent. The big moves this week has been a massive series of Ukrainian drone strikes all along the front north of Bakhmut, designed to halt resupply runs to Bakhmut and also into the Dubovo-Vasylivka salient. Russian AA and EW assets seem powerless to stop these drones, and indeed, a number of Pantsirs and at least one S-400 AA control unit have been destroyed themselves by the drones. The Russians on that front think that there'll be a big attack there, even if it isn't the main effort. The Ukrainians are also clearing minefields along several stretches of the front with artillery blasts, again causing alarm that they plan to advance infantry through those areas.

There's been some significant flash-floods in areas along the southern front, though, which might delay the timetable for an advance.

[The Anti-Targ]

Prigozhin's next move

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300894281/putins-chef-confirms-plans-for-chatham-islands-in-cryptic-email-to-stuff

Quote

'Putin's chef' confirms plans for Chatham Islands in cryptic email to Stuff

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s response follows Stuff revealing on Wednesday that the mercenary boss was pictured in front of a world map marked the group’s interests.

One of the pins was in the Chatham Islands.

In response to questions about what the group’s interest in the Chathams were, Prigozhin gave a short, cryptic response.

"We will not share this information, everything has its own time."

Stuff then asked if the pin was a mistake intended for another place, or if it was being used to hold the map on the wall.

A spokesperson for Prigozhin then said they would “not disclose the plans of the PMC ‘Wagner’ regarding Chatham Island.”

If you have no clue what or where Chatham Island is don't worry, most New Zealanders possibly don't know and definitely don't care. There's a bit of a world map meme where often in TV shows a map of the world is shown but New Zealand is missing. Chatham Islands is the Map of New Zealand version of that: you see a map of New Zealand, most of the time the Chatham Islands is missing.

It is as you might guess very remote. People say New Zealand is hard to get to and remote, Chatham Islands is the hard to get to remote part of New Zealand. It is so remote that Wagner could invade it with 5,000 soldiers and without international help it would be almost impossible for the NZ military to take back, and while I'm sure our friends would be very sympathetic to our plight they may decides it's not worth the time, cost and lives to do anything about it. NZ defence force has a total head count of 15,000 which includes civilian personnel. The Islands have a population of about 650.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

How many of them speak Russian?

[The Anti-Targ]

Possibly one more than the number of Wagners who speak Maori.

[horangi]

Well every evil tyrant needs a lair?  More likely bolt holes to escape defenestration.  The coconuts there are known to have a high concentration of polonium though...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Don't underestimate their recruitment.

For their foreign operation, they prefer people who speak the local language. E.g. for their adventures in the Central African Republic they happily recruited people, who previously served in the French Foreign Legion. They really liked those guys, because they speak French, which is an official language and the most common language down there.

Maori might be a bit challenging tho, as I don't think there's a Maori equivalent to the FL.

Edited June 1, 2023 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

48 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Prigozhin's next move

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300894281/putins-chef-confirms-plans-for-chatham-islands-in-cryptic-email-to-stuff

If you have no clue what or where Chatham Island is don't worry, most New Zealanders possibly don't know and definitely don't care. There's a bit of a world map meme where often in TV shows a map of the world is shown but New Zealand is missing. Chatham Islands is the Map of New Zealand version of that: you see a map of New Zealand, most of the time the Chatham Islands is missing.

It is as you might guess very remote. People say New Zealand is hard to get to and remote, Chatham Islands is the hard to get to remote part of New Zealand. It is so remote that Wagner could invade it with 5,000 soldiers and without international help it would be almost impossible for the NZ military to take back, and while I'm sure our friends would be very sympathetic to our plight they may decides it's not worth the time, cost and lives to do anything about it. NZ defence force has a total head count of 15,000 which includes civilian personnel. The Islands have a population of about 650.

So… the Wagner group has made an express threat against the territory of New Zealand and the NZ Military isn’t taking steps to secure the Chathams?

[The Anti-Targ]

10 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So… the Wagner group has made an express threat against the territory of New Zealand and the NZ Military isn’t taking steps to secure the Chathams?

At the moment it is just a vague quote on a news website, but I'm sure our intelligence service, hopefully along with our 5 eyes friends, is having a good hard think about what it really means. I'm not sure what "taking steps" could actually mean in practical terms if we're left to our own devices. If it meant setting up a military base capable of repelling an attack that would probably mean quadrupling the population of the Island, which probably wouldn't fly. If it meant constant patrols by our frigates that might be effective, so long as Wagner doesn't have better armed ships of its own. We have no war planes so we have no air to sea, air to ground or air to air combat capability.

I think a possibly more plausible plan for Prigozhin could be for some friend who is not under NZ sanctions to buy a property in the Chathams for him to sneak onto and hide if he needs to (whether its hide from Putin or Western powers). There are certainly enough fascists in this part of the world who might we willing to help out, but for the fact that the world has now seen a pin in Wagner's world map right on the Chathams, which means it'll be the first place anyone looks if he suddenly goes missing and there's no dead body. So I guess they will have to put a pin in that plan now 

[Makk]

No one understands what they could possibly want with the Chathams. The white pins indicate places with Wagner business interests rather than conflict zones which are the red pins. A theory was Prighozhin mistook the Chatham Islands for the Cook Islands (out by around 3000km) which have been known to sell their flag to register dodgy ships.

[Derfel Cadarn]

My guess it’s either pinning the map to the wall, and Prighozhin didn’t realise this and just played coy, or a minion accidentally knocked a pin out and stuck it in anywhere before anyone saw

[Werthead]

Major Storm Shadow strikes in the last few hours, destroying supply depots and military posts in and outside Berdyansk, Mariupol and Henichesk (the new Russian capital of Kherson Oblast).

The Russian partisans have attacked the Russian border NE of Kharkiv and possibly at Urazovo near the Oskil River. The latter has the Russians worried because that could turn their flanks at Svatove.

Looks like the goal from both attacks is confusion and keeping the Russians in the dark about where the big strike will come.

The US has purchased a whole load of Gepard AA tanks from Jordan and will be giving them to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Wagner and the Chechens seem firmly on the outs:

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Werthead

[Gorn]

Utkin and Delimkhanov are serious and dangerous people, actual military commanders of Wagner and Kadirov's militia respectively, who don't usually waste their time on PR and posting on social media (they leave that to Prigozhin and Kadirov). If they are getting involved, it means that the rift between them is real and major, and may actually turn violent.

[ThinkerX]

Okay...

What are Putin's options should these Russian Rebels somehow capture and hold three or four major Russian metropolises? At this point, this is looking at least possible.

For that matter, how would this affect the flow of munitions and supplies into Ukraine, as well as...'public support of the west' for want of a better term?

 

Edited June 2, 2023 by ThinkerX

[Werthead]

24 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Okay...

What are Putin's options should these Russian Rebels somehow capture and hold three or four major Russian metropolises? At this point, this is looking at least possible.

For that matter, how would this affect the flow of munitions and supplies into Ukraine, as well as...'public support of the west' for want of a better term?

I'm not sure it is looking possible, 60 guys overran the border, briefly held a few villages and blew up a bridge before retreating in good order. It was a raid, they were never in the remotest danger of capturing Belgorod itself. That might change if the support widens (and it may be), but I think it would require Russia to basically collapse into civil war, then they might be able to take Belgorod, Kursk and Rostov, which Ukraine could sponsor as a buffer state between themselves and Russia when it gets its shit back in gear. But we're some way from that being a realistic outcome.

Support from the west has become massively more entrenched in recent months, but I think the idea is that as long as Ukraine is not using western weapons in such attacks, it's not a problem. The massive drone raid on Moscow was carried out using mostly Russian drones, the strikes on the border are being carried out by Russians using their own weapons, and where western weapons are being used, it's in a way that's been the case since the start of the war (HIMARS and artillery destroying staging areas around Belgorod to the point that they can no longer be used to stage an invasion of Ukraine from that vicinity).

[Wilbur]

Exactly this.

If the Ukrainians want to assemble a large heap of captured Russian gear and tell the Russian Rebels to help themselves and go nuts in the border region, very few people in America are going to shed any tears.

Equipping them with a full Patriot array or handing them HIMARS might be more of an issue.

[Maithanet]

Things are not great between Wagner and the Russian military.

 

[ThinkerX]

 

Wild claim that the Russian Rebels are fighting in Belgorod.

Not sure how much, if any, credence this should be given.

Chaos in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast as officials flee and the Russian army shells its own civilians (msn.com)

 

[Makk]

The Polish volunteer corps are apparently participating with the Russian liberation groups in the Belgorod raids, not sure how well this will go down with Putin. 

Also Russian civilians in Belgorod are complaining that the Russian military that came in to defend their cities are looting their homes.

[Toth]

Yesterday evening there were panicked posts by pro-Russian bloggers of 3 km deep penetrations by Ukrainian forces at Zaporizhhia and this morning I'm seeing news relaying Russian claims they repulsed 8 Ukrainian battalions, destroying 37 tanks and armored vehicles and killing 250 soldiers in the process, posting a shakey incredibly grainy footage of some pixels in a field getting shelled as proof and congratulating themselves that the Ukrainian offensive is therefore utterly defeated.

So taking the usual trustworthiness of the Russian MoD into account, I say chances are high this was only another small probing engagement that saw the Russians frantically give up their positions, causing the Ukrainians to push much deeper than anticipated, so they retreated after embarrassing the Russians.

Edited June 5, 2023 by Toth

[Werthead]

Ukraine has apparently opened a large-scale series of raids along the line of contact in the south-east. It is unclear which is the main thrust, which is opportunism taking advantage of disorder in the Russian lines, and which are tactical feints. So far, the Velykonovoskilkivsyi area is under attack, with the first recorded sightings of western-donated tanks and APCs. A reported tank battle near Novodarivka, with 3 Russian tanks engaging 2 Ukrainian tanks and AT teams. One Russian tank destroyed, the other two retreated.

Ukrainian counter-attacks underway at Soledar, where they retook several positions lost last winter and are reportedly reinforcing. Ukrainian forces at Vuhledar have also engaged Russian forces, reportedly driving Russian forces back to Novodonetske and fighting in the streets in the outskirts of the town.

The Ukrainian counter attacks around Bakhmut are gathering speed and momentum, with Volnovakha under attack (although the goal might not be the town but taking control of the highway, cutting off resupply routes into the town itself.

Russian Telegram isn't in its normal meltdown, saying the gains are low-hanging fruit in areas that were stripped to reinforce the attack on Bakhmut, so it's not surprising these areas are the ones being targeted. They've also pointed out these targets can be taken relatively easily, and Ukraine's main effort might be elsewhere.