Rugby: France and Beyond

[The Anti-Targ]

On 10/10/2023 at 5:53 AM, BigFatCoward said:

Anyone think it will be a 6 nations sweep? 

Not any more.

Congratulations to Argentina, brilliant effort.

End of the day, very few teams are that much better than the All Blacks at any given time that the All Blacks can't get a win on them when they are on and the other team is a bit off.

[Which Tyler]

Bugger.

 

Best team on the day won both matches, but... bugger!

[The Anti-Targ]

On to the other QFs.

Fiji has shown they can beat almost anyone. But they've also had some disappointing performances. Inconsistent is what they are and I have no clue whether the big occasion will bring out their best or worst. This could be the most one-sided QF in the history of the RWC, or it could be the biggest upset. I have to go with England though, it's really unthinkable that they will fall over in this setting. But if I was a betting man I'd put a tenner on Fiji, because it could happen and I can afford to lose a tenner.

France vs South Africa, should be as epic as the AB/IRE game. I want France to win and I want the ABs to face France in the finals (sure, Argentina could beat the ABs, stranger things have happened - maybe? But who really thinks that). But like the ABs South Africa can and do beat anyone on any given day in any kind of form. But surely France has to take this one out.

I do think France wins the whole thing. This result would probably be the least disappointing RWC loss for the ABs for me.

Interesting that there is no possibility for a 6 Nations final anymore, when yesterday odds would probably have been in favour of a 6 Nations final.

Edited October 14, 2023 by The Anti-Targ

[Padraig]

Can't argue with the result.  Ireland could still have won but there were too many mistakes on the day.  It will certainly go down as an opportunity thrown away, which is sad for some truly great players.

Besides, Ireland has won a lot of games very narrowly over the last couple of years.  Sooner or later one of them would go against us.

I'm sure people will wonder whether NZ's kinder draw helped.  Who knows.  But all that matters is what happens on the day.

[The Anti-Targ]

The only real difference between Ireland's draw and NZ's was Scotland cf Italy, and I don't think you can credibly argue that it made that much of the difference to either team. You're not going to suggest France was an easier country to face in the pools than South Africa?

If anything I would say NZ's pool experience forced the ABs to harden up, especially mentally, because they lost to France. You could losing the opening match to the host country call that a kindness I suppose. But equally Ireland fought a tough slog with South Africa that should have steeled Ireland for the rest of the competition.

I think the worst thing for the pool stage is to have too easy a time of it. If a team has 4 easy wins in the pools then they risk going into the knockouts under-cooked.

[Iskaral Pust]

Ireland just weren’t at their best.  Perhaps some fatigue and strain showing, especially after being worked very hard by NZ’s opening.  Ireland had three almost-tries in the second half that might have gone their way another day: the maul attempt held up and two cross-field kicks to O’Mahony and Sheehan.  But their general play wasn’t sharp enough.  Their execution at lineouts, scrums (conceding penalties needlessly) and rucks cost them turnovers.  They didn’t seem fit enough today to support the ruck and re-set their attacking shape through the phases to do their usual devastating fast ruck speed (nor to defend that second try), and I saw very little creative play-making from Sexton to balance his waning physical contribution: his basic kicking and passing was solid but I don’t remember any successful chip kicks (in fact others in green had more penetrating kicks behind) or wrap-arounds or reverse passes.  The 11-15 backs showed more threat (Lowe made the skip-over pass to Aki for his try) but the forwards felt just a step slow and stodgy.

I was worried before the tournament that our high tempo game and limited forward power off the bench would eventually count against us as fatigue accumulated to slow us down and strong opponents in the later stages could use greater power to slow the game and grind us down.  We defeated SA’s attempt but not all that comfortably and we’d be more tired for each successive one.  I love the rugby that Ireland (and Leinster) play but it just might not be suited to winning a WC with so many games tightly packed and with the toughest opponents back-loaded.

[Consigliere]

Bah. Ireland choked again. Their quarter-final curse continues.

 

[Padraig]

13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

...

That's what I mean.  You can make all sorts of arguments about why you are a little off form.  The only truth though is that New Zealand were better on the day.

On the choking.  On those other occasions we weren't that good, so I don't choking factors as much.  But yes, because this team seemed to have quality, you could definitely argue they choked.  But in fairness to them, you can't fault them for their efforts.

[lessthanluke]

9 hours ago, Consigliere said:

Bah. Ireland choked again. Their quarter-final curse continues.

 

Utter nonsense. Elite sport is about fine fine margins, it wasn't their day. Nobody "choked"

[Consigliere]

*Unclenches*

 

What a game. 

[Which Tyler]

I don't like criticising refs, so I'm happy to say a full-hearted "well played" to South Africa, and leave it there.

Edited October 15, 2023 by Which Tyler

[The Anti-Targ]

Disappointed that France lost. I wanted to see them against the ABs in the final. I can't not prefer the Boks now, but I don't really find myself caring one way or the other on that semi-final. Arguably the two best teams in the competition, on paper, knocked out in the quarters. If a team that's not NZ was going to win this RWC I wanted it to be Ireland or France. I'm not happy that it could be England or South Africa now.

I have to take the blame for France's loss. I slept in so missed the first 61 minutes of the game. Then as soon as I turn the game on South Africa scores and takes the lead. I brought negative mojo into the aether, sorry. If I'd just slept another 20 minutes...

[Darryk]

Not a big rugby fan but the France vs South Africa game was really intense.

[BigFatCoward]

All 4 quarter finals were pretty decent. 

[Which Tyler]

Yeah, the insanely early draw, and subsequent development of various teams, means that we've (likely) sacrificed 2 awesome semi-finals in favour of 4 fantastic quarter finals.
This coming weekend though... Unless SA and SA both emotionally played their finals just now, are going to be complete blow-outs.

[Consigliere]

I think NZ v. Arg is going to be pretty one-sided. Eng v. SA is going to be a close game, I reckon - foresee a battle of attrition in this one.

The WC draw really needs to be done in the same year as the tournament (as it is in football). Stupid to have the draw made more than 2.5 years before the tournament.

[williamjm]

It is weird that England are now the only unbeaten team left in the tournament. Normally that might suggest they were the favourites, but it does say more about the draw than the quality of the team. Even mediocre England teams tend to be difficult to beat so one upset might not be impossible but I don't see two consecutive upsets happening.

[ljkeane]

I just caught up with the Sunday games because I was busy yesterday. Two good games.

England actually played pretty well against Fiji. I think Fiji have shown enough over the last couple of months to credit them as just a pretty good team and they fought hard to keep themselves in it. England were just a bit better though. The shape of the side looks a bit better with Smith at 15, not that he actually did anything hugely significant, but having the threat there that England might actually counter off a bad kick or play from deep makes them look a much more rounded side.

The France South Africa game was good but definitely a bit weird. France absolutely battered the Springboks for the first 55 minutes or so and could easily have scored 6 or 7 tries and did score 3 but somehow South Africa hung on by their fingernails and managed to score 3 tries off basically the three errors France made in the own half in the first 40 to amazingly go into half time in the game. The last 25 minutes or so weren't exactly South Africa on top but it was more even and they dug out a win. I can't say South Africa were the better side, they weren't, but, fair play to them, I think they're the only side that have the sheer bloody mindedness to come through that sort of onslaught and still find a way to win.

You do have to say there were a couple of decisions I think Ben O'Keefe got wrong that in such a tight game could have swung it France's way but there are always going to be a couple of moments like that in any rugby game. It's just that it turned out to be a 1 point game.

[ljkeane]

So this weekend's semis look like being a lot less competitive than the quarters last week but fingers crossed we get some good games.

Argentina - New Zealand it's really hard to see anything other than an All Blacks win to be honest. To be fair most of this Pumas squad have experienced beating New Zealand, it was only last year that they won in New Zealand, but with New Zealand looking sharp recently and Argentina less so at this World Cup it looks like it's going to be pretty comfortable to me.

England - South Africa the Springboks are also fairly big favourites for this one but I think there's a bit more hope for a real contest to break out. If they play well England do have enough quality to turn it into an arm wrestle and if it's tight maybe the bounce of the ball goes their way.

I'm not generally a fan of Borthwick's conservative tactics but, to be honest, it's probably England's best chance for this game. It looks like he's committing to it too. Steward back in at fullback to try and diffuse the contestable kicks. South Africa aren't quite as prescriptive at doing it as they used to be but they scored two tries off not even particularly good kicks against France. He's also picked probably the best tackling pack he could go with to start the game. We'll see how it turns out.

[Iskaral Pust]

Hard to know if the Springbok crossfield kicks were a tactic just for the French (it really worked!), but Borthwick almost has to preemptively select Steward over Smith, costing England a creative variation on their stodgy tactics.

France vs SA was an enthralling game when I didn’t have the same personal tension attached.  I disagreed with the French kick at goal immediately after the yellow card right before half time.  With a dominant lock off the field for SA, it seems like a moment to kick for touch and maul.  But it was so back-and-forth: the French looked better able to control possession and territory, and turned that into tries, but then disproportionately conceded tries from specific points of defensive frailty.

With more distance from the Ireland loss, it feels like a combo of Leinster and Liverpool losing European finals.  The opponent was more successful at game management and imposed their game better.  Exciting, explosive attacking play is less successful in a knock-out match against an opponent that is highly capable, resolute and well prepared — defense is often decisive at that stage.  Fatigue matters for a small squad late in a tournament — the figures for relative minutes per player in the group stages that went around during the week just confirmed what my eyes told me last Saturday.