Jaqens target was Ned or Jon Snow?

[HotPieLover]

A have a little theory as to why jaqen (a skilled assassin and escape artist) was on his way to the wall after spending some time in the black cells of kings landing.

Could it be that Jaqen was in KL thanks to Varys? I mean we already know that he has a gaoler-disguise so he could maybe have a part in Jaqen beeing there. 

If the theory about Varys beeing a secret blackfyre is true he could have wanted Jaqen to assassinate some target in westeros in order to destabilize the realm before F/Aegons imminent invasion.

But who could this target have been? I believe that Ned could have been the target at first, but after his execution jaqen was assigned to assassinate someone else.

That makes me question as to why jaqen was travelling to the wall to join the nights watch. Did he have a target there? Could Jon have been jaqens target before beeing released into the Riverlands? If the Jon was the target, did Varys or someone else know his secret indentity as Rhaegar’s true heir and son? 

Jaqen is still in Westeros, but has travelled the wrong way if he wanted to join the NW. Does he want to find something in Oldtown as F/Pate to get to Jon in some way?

I know that this is a really crackpot theory, but I have been pondering this for a couple of days and I thought that it might be worth beeing my first post on this forum! Looking forwards to your thoughts and answers!

[Aebram]

I don't think it's so crackpot. The question has come up before on this forum: how did a skilled assassin and master of disguise end up in a dungeon? I haven't seen any good answers yet; Jaqen is one of the most mysterious characters in the whole story.

So Yes, it's plausible that he was there deliberately, not because he was captured: possibly as a way to travel North undetected, possibly with some help from Varys, possibly as part of Varys's conspiracy to sow chaos in Westeros by killing the best leaders. I don't think Ned Stark could have been his intended target, because Ned was already in King's Landing at that time.

It seems more likely to me that Jaqen is acting as a spy, not an assassin. He hasn't killed anyone at the Citadel; he's continuing to wear Pate's face, presumably so he can spy on Marwyn and/or search for rare books or scrolls. 

Castle Black is another place that has a lot of old documents. Perhaps that was his original destination, but after Yoren's caravan was attacked, he decided that traveling North was too difficult. So he headed to the Citadel as the next-best place to find the information he was seeking.

[Green Stag]

If Varys knew / knows about Jon, he has had some 14 years to take him out, and placing someone in Robert's entourage would have been a fairly easily way to get to Winterfell and possibly kill either Ned or Jon.

Assuming Varys is somehow responsible for Jaqen's presence in KL, I don't think he would have made Ned the target, Ned is potentially vulnerable on arrival in KL, and once in the dungeons easily taken out - if Varys wanted him dead arranging an "accident" in the Black Cells should be easy, instead IIRC Varys talks him into taking the Black.  Also, think about Varys later killing both Pycelle and Kevan Lannister - little effort, no Faceless Men needed.  

I think if Varys wanted a Faceless Man to target anyone in might be Stannis.  Stannis knows about the incest, has the best claim after Robert's death, and in Varys' own words "utterly without mercy".  

I don't have a good explanation for you as to how he got in the dungeon (doesn't seem to make sense), but I don't feel that targeting Ned or Jon adds up.  

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

It seems to me that the HoBW is more an intelligence agency than an organisation of assassins per sé. While they do seem to kill people on request (for prices so exorbitant that it mostly dissuades people from using their services), their main purpose seems to be to gather intel. Arya is mainly being trained for that purpose. She spies and reports back her findings to the HOBW. There are indications that she’ll spend time with/as a concubine too, which would bring her in a position of spending time with high ranking men and gathering intel that way. I believe the people the HOBW takes out are mostly people they need out of the way, rather than people they’re actually hired to kill. I think that - while the story the kindly man told Arya about the old man she had to kill, might be true- it’s probably not the reason they decided to take him out. 
 

I think high ranking members go on longer missions to gather intel and have a lot more freedom to make their own decisions. Note that Arya isn’t exactly punished when she killed Dareon, because she did bring back something useful (good boots are hard to find), it’s quite possible that Dareon had some documents stuffed in his boots too, but that is speculation. In any case Arya is levelled up in her training for killing a man and subsequently bringing back something useful. In other words: they’re allowing Arya to make a kill if she believes it’s justified. 
 

Jaqen appears to either have gone rogue or be on a long mission, and I think it’s the latter. What we know is that Jaqen was:

1. In the black cells in KL. It’s likely he was in KL to spy on someone, though it’s unclear who. But I have a suspicion.
2. was on his way to the wall. I’m absolutely certain that Jaqen was only in the black cells because he wanted to be as a way to get to the wall/north.

3 went to OT and acquired a fancy key.

 The third point seems to indicate that he is looking for certain scrolls or documents. Both WF and the wall have rare scrolls, and I’m sure the royal library does as well. He seems to kill anyone he needs to to proceed on his quest, but he does seem to need a reason to justify killing people. He needs Pate to first betray his duty before killing him, when he could’ve just killed Pate and stolen the key himself. He put the choice to die in Pate’s hands so to speak.

 Now what’s interesting is that Pate refers to him as ‘the alchemist’, which implies that the face he used when parting ways with Arya was that of an alchemist, which makes me think he was in KL to spy on/infiltrate the alchemist’s guild. This would make sense given that they surely also have rare old scrolls.

 Long story short; I think Jaqen is on an intelligence mission to gather information, and isn’t hired to kill anyone.

[House Cambodia]

^ Yes, I agree with this. Turning up later in Oldtown suggests his mission is dragon-related. With the FM being an organisation that originated in Valyria in opposition to dragon-masters, it makes sense. So if he was in KL searching for scrolls on dragons (maybe from the time Targaryans controlled them) and got info that a key scroll was in the library at Winterfell, it makes sense.

What's intriguing though is that his mission commences well before the dragon eggs hatch, so the FM knew something we currently don't.

Connected to all this, a question: what kind of relationship does the HoBaW have with the Red Temple? Despite the Reds being intolerant of gods other than theirs and the FM being tolerant of all gods as reflections of their own One True God, are they effectively on the same side?

[Nevets]

I am firmly convinced that Jaqen was in the black cells because GRRM put him there to advance Arya's story, and didn't give the whys and wherefores a second thought.  Even from a story point of view I don't think it matters.

Ned Stark isn't that difficult to kill.  He meets all types, and has no real security to speak of.  Also, I can't think of anyone who would want him dead badly enough to pay the enormous price for it.  Cersei and Littlefinger had some interest in his death, but had their own plans In place.

He wasn't there to join the Nights Watch.  The NW is the easiest out fit ever to infiltrate.  They take anyone - literally.  If you have a penis and can walk, they'll take you.  If not, they may take you anyway.  It's not like they do background checks.  If secret agent guy can't pretend to be a petty criminal, a down-and-outer, or someone escaping debts or a bad marriage, then he's not worth his paycheck.

I think he is on the cells because he got caught doing something ir being someplace he shouldn't have been.  It happens, even to the best.  And from what I've seen in Arya's story, I am beginning to think their reputation is a bit inflated.

I think after he left Harrenhal, he returned to Braavos to report and get a new assignment, which happens to be at the Citadel.

Quote

 

[John Suburbs]

On 3/10/2024 at 6:56 AM, HotPieLover said:

A have a little theory as to why jaqen (a skilled assassin and escape artist) was on his way to the wall after spending some time in the black cells of kings landing.

Could it be that Jaqen was in KL thanks to Varys? I mean we already know that he has a gaoler-disguise so he could maybe have a part in Jaqen beeing there. 

If the theory about Varys beeing a secret blackfyre is true he could have wanted Jaqen to assassinate some target in westeros in order to destabilize the realm before F/Aegons imminent invasion.

But who could this target have been? I believe that Ned could have been the target at first, but after his execution jaqen was assigned to assassinate someone else.

That makes me question as to why jaqen was travelling to the wall to join the nights watch. Did he have a target there? Could Jon have been jaqens target before beeing released into the Riverlands? If the Jon was the target, did Varys or someone else know his secret indentity as Rhaegar’s true heir and son? 

Jaqen is still in Westeros, but has travelled the wrong way if he wanted to join the NW. Does he want to find something in Oldtown as F/Pate to get to Jon in some way?

I know that this is a really crackpot theory, but I have been pondering this for a couple of days and I thought that it might be worth beeing my first post on this forum! Looking forwards to your thoughts and answers!

I don't see why Varys would want Ned killed. He's trying to slow things down in Westeros, per Illyrio's request, and killing Ned would have the opposite effect.

My suspicion is that if he was in the cells to kill Ned, that would be at Littlefinger's direction. Petyr most definitely does not want Ned repeating the tale of their last conversation, the one where he counseled Ned to bend the knee to Joffrey for now and then expose him at a more convenient time later.

Once Jaq was on the way to the Wall, of course, he could split at any time, but he didn't probably because he puzzled out who Arya was right away and immediately sensed that she might make a good acolyte in the House of Black and White. At this point, I don't see why anyone would have the slightest interest in Jon.

[Nevets]

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I don't see why Varys would want Ned killed. He's trying to slow things down in Westeros, per Illyrio's request, and killing Ned would have the opposite effect.

My suspicion is that if he was in the cells to kill Ned, that would be at Littlefinger's direction. Petyr most definitely does not want Ned repeating the tale of their last conversation, the one where he counseled Ned to bend the knee to Joffrey for now and then expose him at a more convenient time later.

Once Jaq was on the way to the Wall, of course, he could split at any time, but he didn't probably because he puzzled out who Arya was right away and immediately sensed that she might make a good acolyte in the House of Black and White. At this point, I don't see why anyone would have the slightest interest in Jon.

Jaqen couldn't split at any time; he was manacled in a wagon.  If he could free himself, he would have done so when the barn caught fire.  He has no reason to expect anyone to come by, or be willing or able to help if they do.  Ergo, he's stuck.

I doubt that he knew who Arya was, or was interested in her if he did know.  He probably learned at Harrenhal that the Lannisters were searching for Arya Stark, daughter of Ned.  Once he knows that, the pieces fall into place.

I doubt he thought she would make a good acolyte.  She's so unsuitable I have to wonder why they are keeping her around.  I think it's because as a scion of a great house, she is in a good position to help them with info, shelter, money, cover-ups, etc.  Essentially they're manipulating her into helping them, probably in exchange for being able to leave without consequence.

 

[Mourning Star]

I’m still a believer that Jaquen was Syrio, and that he was in the black cells because Ned was supposed to be sent to the Wall with Yoren, not beheaded.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

I doubt he was ever in the dungeon, fwiw. Let's not forget that JH might have been the name of some murderer he replaced. If this was royally or Varys sponsored the switch could have been made at any time. If his target was Jon, then I'm sure left to his own devices Jaqen could have made far better time getting to the Wall. It could have been Ned, if the hirer believed that Ned would make the trip north with the recruits, but then what kind of outsmarting themselves sort of game were they playing? May as well just execute the traitor as Joffrey decided.

I suspect that we will eventually find out that he was there on his own for reasons that might not be available to us at this time. 

[Daeron the Daring]

1 hour ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

I doubt he was ever in the dungeon, fwiw. Let's not forget that JH might have been the name of some murderer he replaced. If this was royally or Varys sponsored the switch could have been made at any time. If his target was Jon, then I'm sure left to his own devices Jaqen could have made far better time getting to the Wall. It could have been Ned, if the hirer believed that Ned would make the trip north with the recruits, but then what kind of outsmarting themselves sort of game were they playing? May as well just execute the traitor as Joffrey decided.

I suspect that we will eventually find out that he was there on his own for reasons that might not be available to us at this time. 

Not only the idea falls short of a purpose, it doesn't feel like anyone would have no better use of a supposed sum of money it takes to hire a faceless man. I imagine Varys of all people would know ways to be more cost efficient if he wanted to kill anyone (not to mention that he is responsible for certain people's safety. If something were to happenn to important inhabitants of the Red Keep, we know who'd they suspect collaborated or failed to provide safety).

I highly doubt Jaqen was in Westeros (or rather in the dungeons of KL) on any westerosi nobleman's account.

It's clear the HoBaW work with an agenda. My bet is he was doing homework for them or went completely rouge, maybe even after he was freed by Arya (altough he does seem committed to the principles of the teachings we assume he received).

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

My bet is he was doing homework for them or went completely rouge,

This would be my bet as well, but I couldn't call it anything more than a guess. He doesn't seem that eager to hurry his work, as he explains later to Arya, but unless his target was in Yoren's gang that's a horribly slow way to choose to travel and if he's there not by his own choice, well he sure got his shit together between then and weasel soup day.

[Evolett]

InDeepGeek has a theory video on this that makes a lot of sense. In a nutshell, Ned was Jaqen's target, hired by Littlefinger who had a number of reasons for wanting to get rid of Ned.  Ned was supposed to be sent to the Night's Watch and Jaqen was in the dungeons in order to join Yoren's convoy and place himself in position to do the deed. But Ned was beheaded instead. No doubt Jaqen would have eventually found a way to escape somewhere along the line even without the incident with Amory Lorch's men. 

I doubt Vary's had anything to do with it. Littlefinger is a likely culprit. He has ties to Braavos and demonstrated his knowledge of the cost of hiring faceless men. To avoid arousing suspicion of a murder,  I also personally think LF aked for the death to look like an accident.  

Jon does not seem a likely target either. Jaqen never continued the journey to the Wall, turning up in at the Citadel in Oldtown for a mission there instead, and prior to that, possibly responsible for Balon Greyjoy's death as well.  

[House Cambodia]

14 hours ago, Nevets said:

I doubt he thought she would make a good acolyte.  She's so unsuitable I have to wonder why they are keeping her around. 

That's an easy one - the FM don't have too many wargs on their books.

[House Cambodia]

10 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

went completely rouge

Dammit, once you've pictured JH with the face of Ru Paul, you can't unsee it!

[House Cambodia]

8 hours ago, Evolett said:

Littlefinger is a likely culprit. He has ties to Braavos and demonstrated his knowledge of the cost of hiring faceless men.

It's an intriguing theory, but if LF hired a FM to assassinate Ned, why not get him to off both Jon Arryn and Bran? Or is this 'proof' that he had no role in hiring the catspaw?

EDIT: Just watched the video - it's quite convincing, actually.

 

One further thought re. means if not motive: who could have secreted JH into the cell? Not LF, but Varys. We later learn that one of his disguises is keeper of the keys of the Red Keep dungeon.

 

Edited March 15 by House Cambodia

[astarkchoice]

The facless men as assasins but as we see they have a bigger agenda, killing just pays the bills and even then they are picky about who they will snuff out.  So why was he there

Now the wall cant have been his destination as he cant have known ned would let joren raid the cells and that theyd go north. That said its odd a man of his skill would be captured at all, once in the cage and manacled he is helpless as the fire arya rescues him from shows.

Now we see later knowledge of dragons is his goal at the citadel BUT there were none when he came over! So whats going on

Theory 1: his target was varys! The faclessmen have various long term goals but ending suffering and injustice seems to be part of their goals. Varys and ilyrios goal for a perfect groomed  targ king involves causing a lot of chaos first ,hurting an awful amounf of ordinary people. On top of that between his postion as master of whispers an his KL  little bird betwork and the one he built up and probably kept going in essos  they represent the 2nd best spy network in planetos aftet the faceless men themselves.

Now we know varys was actualy doubling as a jailer for the kl cells so getting captured and tossed into a cell would be a good way for jaquen to kill varys and even possibly replace him! Thus infiltrating and choking off an org that could potentialy spy on them , stopping the duos plans for chaos  thus saving many ordinary lives and of course getting into a plum position to feefback way more intel to the house of black and white!!

 

Theory 2: his mission was always just a general info freefloating  gather (assuming they have a network to get info or items safely back to base on bravos) , that as magic users themselves the facless men could feel it comming back into the world and are aware of its cycles thus send jaquen to  gain rare tomes and artofacts. So why kingslanding ?  We can assume as grand maester pycelle has plenty of such   scrolls or rare items  OR  the makers of wildfire!  Or  the blacksmith from qohor may be able to make valyrian steel and just maybe  qohor is harder to brrak into

 

AND/OR  slynts corrupt goldcloaks grab him him public(where he csnt use any tricks) and toss him into a cell  for 0 reasons  and that before that he was always heading to the citadel anyway.

 

The sending to the wall he couldnt have predicted nor can he escape the cage easily so hes clearly stuck until he can get to the wall where he can easily escape but.on the way he sees arya as clearly a potential faclessman/woman. Shes educated, trained in arms, has survived knnher own and adopted multiple fake personnas to survive and on top of it all shes had so much trauma shes ready to accept their doctrine ...ideal material to mold!

 

 

[House Cambodia]

^ I like most of it, but if he planned on killing Varys, I'd say it was a peculiar plan. Varys only very occasionally donned his dungeon-keeper persona, so the chance of running across him before execution was small. Secondly, even if he was lucky in that regard, the prisoners are incarcerated in a cell, so his opportunity to kill was not much better than when he was in the cage travelling to The Wall.

[astarkchoice]

8 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

^ I like most of it, but if he planned on killing Varys, I'd say it was a peculiar plan. Varys only very occasionally donned his dungeon-keeper persona, so the chance of running across him before execution was small. Secondly, even if he was lucky in that regard, the prisoners are incarcerated in a cell, so his opportunity to kill was not much better than when he was in the cage travelling to The Wall.

I think he donned it a lot more  often (enough to sign in for regular pay)  to go down into the jails where he could more easily then slip into the hidden rooms and passages beneath KL

Once in a cell a jailer would have to come in and  feed him or possibly come close enough to the cell bars  for jaquen to kill   take keys (or pick the lock as wed assume hes decent at those skills anyway) and walk out with varys face.

[House Cambodia]

10 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Once in a cell a jailer would have to come in and  feed him or possibly come close enough to the cell bars  for jaquen to kill   take keys (or pick the lock as wed assume hes decent at those skills anyway) and walk out with varys face.

I forget the exact chapter where Varys mentions it, but he was a jailer supervisor, not the guy who brought the food. The only prisoners we know he visited were Ned and Tyrion, both due to his 'main job'.