Ukraine Conflict: Crimea-a-River

[Werthead]

Russia hitting Ukraine with missiles, mostly intercepted. But Ukraine has been hitting back, destroying the Black Sea Fleet communications hub in Sevastopol. Three Storm Shadows hit the building within the space of about five seconds, not leaving much of it standing. They also hit a major fuel depot in Hvardiis'ke, Crimea, which burned for hours. Russian air defences seemed slow in responding, with return fire only beginning after the first couple of impacts.

The Kuibyshev refinery near Samara was also hit yesterday.

Edited March 24 by Werthead

[Bironic]

A russian missile crossed into polish airspace for a short period apparently… Poland has demanded an explanation from Russia. I suppose the Russians don’t give a fuck until they hit something in Poland, like an airplane (Boeing) or a school…

[A True Kaniggit]

I believe someone last thread brought up Biden's administration asking Ukraine to not hit Russia's oil infrastructure?

It's a bitch of a war isn't it?

Of course for Ukraine hitting Russia's oil facilities hurts Russia's income.

But apparently it also hurts domestic prices in America, which hurts President Biden's, as well as Democrats in general, chances of being reelected.

And without a majority Democrats can't send aid to Ukraine like we want to, because our Republicans have decided to go pro-Russia apparenty.

It's a bitch of a war isn't it?

 

Edited March 24 by A True Kaniggit

[DMC]

The causal inference(s) between Ukraine hitting Russian refineries and hurting Biden's electoral chances is incredibly weak (not to mention convoluted). 

The much greater concern is normalizing this type of tactic into SOP for warfare - and, particularly, our adversaries starting to target western countries' refineries.  That's something we definitely don't want.  Also, should be noted Ukraine has denied the US made such a request (and the Biden administration is not commenting).

[A True Kaniggit]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

The causal inference(s) between Ukraine hitting Russian refineries and hurting Biden's electoral chances is incredibly weak (not to mention convoluted). 

The much greater concern is normalizing this type of tactic into SOP for warfare - and, particularly, our adversaries starting to target western countries' refineries.  That's something we definitely don't want.  Also, should be noted Ukraine has denied the US made such a request (and the Biden administration is not commenting).

So why did President Biden make the mistake of asking Ukraine to quit hitting Russian oil facilities?

Or was that a lie? I’ll go check. 
 

Edit: from Politico

https://www.politico.eu/article/energy-infrastructure-target-attack-ukraine-russia-war/

 

“At the same time, Washington has asked Ukraine to halt drone strikes on Russia’s oil refineries, out of fear of driving up crude oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to a report Friday by the Financial Times.”

 

Hmmm. I suppose they are quoting the Financial Times. Not sure how accurate that may be. 

Edited March 24 by A True Kaniggit

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

So why did President Biden make the mistake of asking Ukraine to quit hitting Russian oil facilities?

Or was that a lie? I’ll go check. 

It was a report by the Financial Times.  The Biden administration has refused to comment on the record, or even really say one way or another off the record.

[A True Kaniggit]

Haha. Once again my edit was apparently 20 seconds too late.

And I can't reply to you directly for some reason. @DMC

Edit...... I was hitting the wrong button for quotes.

Edited March 24 by A True Kaniggit

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Once again my edit was apparently 20 seconds too late.

Hey, that's always better than 20 seconds too soon.

[Celestial]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

The much greater concern is normalizing this type of tactic into SOP for warfare - and, particularly, our adversaries starting to target western countries' refineries.  That's something we definitely don't want.  Also, should be noted Ukraine has denied the US made such a request (and the Biden administration is not commenting).

That's a nonsensical argument. If those "adversaries" target western countries' refineries, they won't do that based on Ukraine's decisions.

It is fear of retaliation which held those adversaries back, not concern for warfare decorum.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Bloodthirsty Putin knows no decorum. If you get a chance to hit them take it.

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Celestial said:

That's a nonsensical argument. If those "adversaries" target western countries' refineries, they won't do that based on Ukraine's decisions.

It is fear of retaliation which held those adversaries back, not concern for warfare decorum.

LOL.  Right, because fear of retaliation is the only way to affect the behavior of adversaries when it comes to warfare.

Edited March 24 by DMC

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

The causal inference(s) between Ukraine hitting Russian refineries and hurting Biden's electoral chances is incredibly weak (not to mention convoluted). 

The much greater concern is normalizing this type of tactic into SOP for warfare - and, particularly, our adversaries starting to target western countries' refineries.  That's something we definitely don't want.  Also, should be noted Ukraine has denied the US made such a request (and the Biden administration is not commenting).

This can also perforce be extrapolated into the need for some people to refrain from undergoing convulsions in attempting to tie every aspect of the war to the minutiae of American domestic politics. This year will undoubtedly tough for Ukraine but they will be more self-sufficient than ever by 2025.

I guess some take a form of morbid solace in their pessimism to assume that if the latest aid package doesn't eventually pass or if Trump gets elected again then it will automatically result in a defeat for Ukraine. 

Ukraine's proved remarkably flexible and creative in making do with what they've received; any doomsaying amateur observer can eliminate Ukraine all they want from behind a keyboard, but all that accomplishes is to show up their lack of understanding. 

[A True Kaniggit]

17 minutes ago, Tongue Stuck to Wall said:

This can also perforce be extrapolated into the need for some people to refrain from undergoing convulsions in attempting to tie every aspect of the war to the minutiae of American domestic politics. This year will undoubtedly tough for Ukraine but they will be more self-sufficient than ever by 2025.

I guess some take a form of morbid solace in their pessimism to assume that if the latest aid package doesn't eventually pass or if Trump gets elected again then it will automatically result in a defeat for Ukraine. 

Ukraine's proved remarkably flexible and creative in making do with what they've received; any doomsaying amateur observer can eliminate Ukraine all they want from behind a keyboard, but all that accomplishes is to show up their lack of understanding. 

To the first bolded. As the most recent poster as "some people" to tie the Russian invasion of Ukraine to American domestic politics, if you had read the last few post you would have seen I admitted that what I quoted may have come from a questionable source, and I was called out on it very quickly by another member of the forum.

 

And to the second bolded, Former President Trump himself has stated he would end the Ukraine war on day one of his next presidency. 

How do you think he plans on doing so?

I would assume his plan is to completely abandon Ukraine to Putin's whims.

Edited March 24 by A True Kaniggit

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

1 minute ago, A True Kaniggit said:

To the first bolded. As the most recent poster as "some people" to tie the Russian invasion of Ukraine to American domestic politics, if you had read the last few post you would have seen I admitted  that what I quoted may have come from a questionable source, and I was called out on it very quickly by another member of the forum.

 

And to the second bolded, Former President Trump himself has stated he would end the Ukraine war on day one.

How do you think he plans on doing so?

I would assume his plan is to completely abandon Ukraine to Putin's whims.

Ah apologies, I wasn't referring specifically to you all and am sorry cause it did come across that way!  I totally see how your point about Biden was a one-off, and it was DMC's correction of it (which you graciously accepted) just got me going in general about the whole issue.

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

To the first bolded. As the most recent poster as "some people" to tie the Russian invasion of Ukraine to American domestic politics, if you had read the last few post you would have seen I admitted that what I quoted may have come from a questionable source, and I was called out on it very quickly by another member of the forum.

To be clear, I am not questioning the credibility of the Financial Times reporting.  I'm highly confident they did have multiple quality sources that told the FT exactly what they reported they said.  However, that still leaves a lot that we don't know - to what extent this preference was expressed, how it was expressed, who within the administration expressed it and to whom within Ukraine's regime it was expressed to, etc...

[Werthead]

Two more big landing ships in Sevastopol apparently damaged.

More information now claiming one aircraft destroyed and two damaged in that big attack on the Russian airbase a few days ago.

Ukrainian artillery has been hitting Russian targets in Avdiivka, apparently targeting artillery that Russia has brought forwards to take cover in the ruins.

Edited March 24 by Werthead

[ThinkerX]

Given the recent attacks, I am starting to wonder if Ukraine might not attempt some sort of invasion or major attack in Crimea. Keep Putin chasing phantom terrorists and militias, keep blowing up refineries so the Russian advance stalls with supply issues, and with Russia well and truly distracted, somehow land several thousand troops on Crimea. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Given the recent attacks, I am starting to wonder if Ukraine might not attempt some sort of invasion or major attack in Crimea. Keep Putin chasing phantom terrorists and militias, keep blowing up refineries so the Russian advance stalls with supply issues, and with Russia well and truly distracted, somehow land several thousand troops on Crimea. 

Without a land corridor to Crimea how would Ukraine supply those troops?  While the Black Sea fleet has been damaged… it still exists.

[Werthead]

9 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Given the recent attacks, I am starting to wonder if Ukraine might not attempt some sort of invasion or major attack in Crimea. Keep Putin chasing phantom terrorists and militias, keep blowing up refineries so the Russian advance stalls with supply issues, and with Russia well and truly distracted, somehow land several thousand troops on Crimea. 

Ukraine has been threatening this, and I think the threat is keeping a lot of Russian troops and material tied down in Crimea. In particular, Russia keeps putting S-400 systems and much more expensive, complex mobile radar systems in Crimea to take up the slack and these keep being destroyed, and Russia is running out of both capabilities relatively quickly, and as they go down Ukraine is able to exploit gaps in the coverage to then hit Russian targets further east.

In some respects the threat of a Ukrainian assault on Crimea is causing as much logistical damage to Russia in Crimea as a full-scale assault, for nothing like the cost.

Logistically, Ukraine could try to invade Crimea and that capability is not non-existent, but it would be a massive throw of the dice. They would have to mount a seaborn naval invasion on a massive scale, with the only equipment being available being river landing boats, with limited air. They'd initially enjoy strong artillery cover but that would fade as they pressed on into the Crimean interior. The topography of Crimea is a bitch to fight across (ask French and British military historians about that), and Sevastopol is a very heavily fortified city from both landward and seaborne attack. Ideally Ukraine would also need to fully breach the Dnipro line and cut Crimea off from the land bridge to set up a land-borne resupply route, which is quite hard (Ukraine would also need to bring massive defences with it and fortify the ground to the north to prevent a flanking relief effort).

Such a gambit failing could damage Ukraine's capabilities so much it could lose the war as a result.

[Kalbear]

Despite other reporting it appears Russia's attack on the energy sector was something of a success: the largest private energy generator in Ukraine has lost 50% of their capacity and will take months to restore:

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-dtek-loses-50-of-generating-capacity-recovery-will-take-months/