Will House Martell Ultimately Win the Game of Thrones?

[KingMaekarWasHere]

There are quite a lot of theories going around the proverbial net about the true intentions as well as tactics used by Doran and his kin. But for my own satisfaction as well as the satisfactions of the community at large, I would like to assess forum members' opinions on the fate of House Martell. 

My own simple take - 

My own take is that (aside from any possible conspiracy involving Doran's true intentions) his daughter Arianne, his nieces the Sandsnakes, his second son Trystane, as well as his "nephew" Aegon all have powerful roles still to play in the story besides the great Doran himself. Beyond that one premise of course we fans can only speculate. Preston Jacobs has a whole elaborate theory on Doran's "Dornish Master Plan" which you can watch on YouTube. Nevertheless, one BIG question has to be...will Doran be content to see Arianne marry his Targaryen nephew? Doesn't he seem to want something MORE for her? Or is the Arianne-Aegon marriage just a useful diversion for "something bigger?" How will the Sandsnakes fare in KingsLanding? Will they try and install "Myrcella" and her betrothed Trystane to the throne? Or will the Myrcella marriage and crowning be the great diversion? 

One interesting idea that has been floating out there is that Littlefinger is "partners" with Doran, and that the two of them are playing the long game. Whilst Varys and "the cheesemonger" Illyrio scheme to place a possible female-line Blackfyre on the throne, Doran may have his hands in multiple pies, and stands to benefit from either his son Trystane or his daughter Arianne coming into power. After all, he can feasibly rule the realm through either of his remaining children. ALSO, what if his eldest son is still ALIVE? (Tin Foil Alert) 

But....What do you guys think? My personal take is that Doran's fall may be imminent, especially if Arianne decides to go her own way and seek power outside of her father's clutches. And yet because she is a Martell, the House would still potentially control the realm. 

Edited May 3 by KingMaekarWasHere

[kissdbyfire]

No.

[Craving Peaches]

No.

There's the whole thing with the overripe blood oranges and Doran's plans failing. There's also him sacrificing the peace Dorne has for his revenge. What will probably happen is that he will try to play the game and lose with nasty consequences for all around.

[Castellan]

No sign of talent so far in Dorne except Myrcella.

I believe Arianne will back the wrong dragon simply because twice she has had the opportunity to read books about dragons and has rejected it as boring. I think that's a clue.

 

[Kal-L]

No.

I'll go even further, I think House Martell's line is doomed and won't see the Spring.

[sifth]

Odds are they'll side with Faegon, who is likely a doomed pretender.

[Willam Stark]

Nope.

Doran's line is doomed.

[Angel Eyes]

Not likely, considering Doran's track record with leaving Viserys out to dry and and Quentyn's role to subvert expectations about the Hero's Journey. They're 0-2 for plans.

[Darth Sidious]

Doran has too many liabilities. The Sandsnakes. Arrianne is another big disadvantage for him.  I think Darkstar will outplay the Martells. He’s too interesting of a character to stay in the background. Darkstar will drag Dorne into war with the Lannisters and the Martells will be first to perish. 

[Angel Eyes]

2 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Doran has too many liabilities. The Sandsnakes. Arrianne is another big disadvantage for him.  I think Darkstar will outplay the Martells. He’s too interesting of a character to stay in the background. Darkstar will drag Dorne into war with the Lannisters and the Martells will be first to perish. 

To be honest Doran's his own liability.

[Arthur Peres]

Doran is one of the most incompetent players in the books.

He simple can't win. He should had entered the war during the time of the five kings, now is the time he should not be sitting on the table. He can lose everything and he has nothing to gain in this game.

[Ring3r]

No.  Doran thinks he's clever but his ENTIRE plan is just to marry into the Targaryen family....which is about to experience another civil war, between Dany and Faegon. 

I suspect Faegon will be....displeased....when he finds out that Doran is playing both sides.

I suspect Dany will be....displeased....when she finds out that Doran is playing both sides.

Basically, Doran is just....not very smart.  His entire schtick is to hedge his bets, play both sides, and try to ride on the coat-tails of the powerful.

All he does is wait....and he always waits too long.  He waited too long to tell his daughter his plans, so she made her own and Princess Myrcella got f'd up as a result.  He waited too long to send his son to Dany....and she was already betrothed once he arrived.  To make up for his father's failure, Quentyn tried to woo Dany by interacting with her dragons without permission, and now he's extra crispy.  Doran is exactly what the sandsnakes think he is.

He hasn't had a single plan work.  His most successful machination was with his brother.  Oberyn died, and the Lannister family was destabilized...but by that point, Varys and Illyrio had already identified the fact that Viserys was insane, rendering Doran's planned marriage of Arianne/Viserys moot.  Doran had no idea about Young Griff. Now he'll try to take advantage of THAT....except the people behind Young Griff already know Doran is incompetent.

Basically the dude thinks he's super clever but he's got no idea about any higher-level stuff going on because he doesn't have any kind of reliable spy network.  All he does is wait.

Edited May 5 by Ring3r

[Raven Princling]

No.

He waited for too long to take action. Now Arianne has all but dragged Dorne into war with her Queen Myrcella plot. 

If he wanted revenge, he should have joined earlier when Robb rose against the Lannisters. If anything, removing them from power would have prepared the realm for a returning Targ, be it Dany or Young Griff. 

His plans just do not seem to work. Arianne is way over her head and Quentyn failed.  Unless George has something planned that we do not know about, I cannot see Martells winning. 

Edited May 5 by Raven Princling

[astarkchoice]

No asoiaf is all about plans going wrong. Just as you are planning so are other people and other non related  events arr usualy  in motion altering things! Doran wants revenage BUT as we see esp reinforced vy his love of the children he wants it clean and surgical...he wants no massive war if he can avoid 

 

Problem is the more complex you make a plan the more that can go wrong! He keeps waiting for everything to be exactly right and things keep changing while he waits  thus will fail badly PLUS his original.targets are dead now so what remains is just petty anger being carried out by much more flawed tools than the red viper was

[John Suburbs]

On 5/3/2024 at 6:21 PM, KingMaekarWasHere said:

There are quite a lot of theories going around the proverbial net about the true intentions as well as tactics used by Doran and his kin. But for my own satisfaction as well as the satisfactions of the community at large, I would like to assess forum members' opinions on the fate of House Martell. 

My own simple take - 

My own take is that (aside from any possible conspiracy involving Doran's true intentions) his daughter Arianne, his nieces the Sandsnakes, his second son Trystane, as well as his "nephew" Aegon all have powerful roles still to play in the story besides the great Doran himself. Beyond that one premise of course we fans can only speculate. Preston Jacobs has a whole elaborate theory on Doran's "Dornish Master Plan" which you can watch on YouTube. Nevertheless, one BIG question has to be...will Doran be content to see Arianne marry his Targaryen nephew? Doesn't he seem to want something MORE for her? Or is the Arianne-Aegon marriage just a useful diversion for "something bigger?" How will the Sandsnakes fare in KingsLanding? Will they try and install "Myrcella" and her betrothed Trystane to the throne? Or will the Myrcella marriage and crowning be the great diversion? 

One interesting idea that has been floating out there is that Littlefinger is "partners" with Doran, and that the two of them are playing the long game. Whilst Varys and "the cheesemonger" Illyrio scheme to place a possible female-line Blackfyre on the throne, Doran may have his hands in multiple pies, and stands to benefit from either his son Trystane or his daughter Arianne coming into power. After all, he can feasibly rule the realm through either of his remaining children. ALSO, what if his eldest son is still ALIVE? (Tin Foil Alert) 

But....What do you guys think? My personal take is that Doran's fall may be imminent, especially if Arianne decides to go her own way and seek power outside of her father's clutches. And yet because she is a Martell, the House would still potentially control the realm. 

I suspect no one will win, not completely anyway. There will be no Iron Throne. The realm will devolve back into seven independent kingdoms, or more. 

[Angel Eyes]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

I suspect no one will win, not completely anyway. There will be no Iron Throne. The realm will devolve back into seven independent kingdoms, or more. 

Unless Bran the Broken brings things back together.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Unless Bran the Broken brings things back together.

Doubtful. Why would anyone want a spaced-out, tree-talking mystic as their king?

[Craving Peaches]

22 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Unless Bran the Broken brings things back together.

Good God I hope not...

[BlackLightning]

Yeah, maybe against the Lannisters.

But ultimately? No.

I think it's pretty well established that Prince Doran has missed multiple opportunities. At least four. But even if he had caught ahold of one opportunity, he has not even prepared his family for said opportunities

• Ellaria and Mellario have both opted out, with Mellario saying that she'd rather be on the other side of the world than deal with him.
• Oberyn's lack of self-control not only destroyed himself, but it also destroyed some of the best advantages and tools that the Martells had
• Arianne and Quentyn are completely out of their league. They weren't raised right.
• The Sand Snakes are ticking time bombs, all parts worse than their father. They also weren't raised right.
• Trystane is even less prepared than Arianne and Quentyn...and that's saying something.
• Manfrey and his side of the family are glorified butlers.

Even if everything went Doran's way, things would have still backfired and gone sideways because he would've been the only one who was ready.

I understand the need for secrecy, but Doran is a terrible communicator.

[FantasyCreature]

52 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Doran is a terrible communicator.

Much like a certain young boy who is currently lying dead in the snow.

Nothing much to add, except that I agree with the replies. He might have some small victory over, who knows, the Lannisters maybe. Their world isn't fair at all, but I'd love to see Elia finally getting justice. Or maybe he will enjoy some time of peace and power with Aegon... But I don't see the Martells being endgame.

Doran reading these replies will be like: