[Spoilers] The Princess and the Queen, complete spoilers discussion

[The hairy bear]

On the maesters "conspiracy":

I agree that Glyndayn surely tries to depict the maesters in the story in as good a light as possible. I also certainly believe that there's the possibility that the Citadel had been in league with the Hightowers for a long time, and that both the maesters of Storm's End and Maidenpool could have manipulated their lords to join the greens.

I don't buy that they planned to kill all the dragons before or during the Dance, or that they were directly behind the Storming of the Dragonpit.

But apparently, the bigger role of maesters in the war is yet to come. Grand Maester Orwyle (an interesting fellow, according to Ran) is the easiest candidate for being the traitor in the black council, and Aegon II will fed some Grand Maester Gerardys to Sunfyre.

My biggest doubt is whether Gerardys will be some "fake", non "Citadel-approved" maester of the blacks, or Orwyle's replacement in the green council that will also prove to be a traitor. I tend to favor the later, but six months is perhaps too short a time.

On Viserys and his death:

I don't think that Viserys suspected the Hightower play. He had taken the necessary steps to assure that Rhaenyra followed him: he had made all the lords swear her fealty, he had put it in his will, and he had made her princess of Dragonstone. It is telling that apparently Rhaenyra, Daemon and the other blacks didn't suspect it either: otherwise they wouldn't have left KL.

Which brings me to:

The death of Viserys happened at the very best moment possible for the blacks. If it had happened years before, Ser Otto wouldn't have had time to install allies in key positions, and the lords would feel more binded by the oath taken in 105 (Lord Borremund would be alive, securing the Stormlands for Rhaenyra). If it had happened years later, the five sons of Rhaenyra would have big dragons of fighting age.

Not only that, but it happened just when Rhaenyra and Daemon were away from the capital, and she was at the final part of her pregnancy, unable to act.

It doesn't seem unreasonable to think that Viserys' death was not an accident.

On the Ironrod

My best guess is that very few indeed put on the Small Council as Otto's cronies. I'd not be surprised if Ironrod was not necessarily a big fan of Otto/Alicent, but honestly a man who thought that a prince should come before a princess. That would have made him an open Green only upon Viserys's death..

I think it's very likely that Ironrod was not one of Otto's cronies and had never been part of any conspiration, but that still, Ser Otto had chosen a Master of Laws that was a strong Andal traditionalist. He didn't need to appoint a loyal henchman. Just someone that was sure to have the right opinion when the important decision would be taken.

[RumHam]

It doesn't seem unreasonable tho think that Viserys' death was not an accident.

Especially considering this report:

GRRM stated that there will be different narratives in the Worldbook. He mentioned a dwarf jester of Viserys I named Mushroom who was around for some mayhem. There will also be a septon who will angrily refute many of Mushroom's wild claims. "Poison!? He didn't die of poison, he died in his sleep!"

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/6592/

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Especially considering this report:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/6592/

Yes, I immediately thought about that SSM as well! And it's a nice touch that the dwarf is named Mushroom, seeing as Tyrion finds poisonous mushrooms in Pentos.

But IIRC (don't have the book with me), Misery' death had been expected, right? So either they were poisoning him slowly, or he was really ill and they might have "helped" him along.

[History of Westeros]

Ironrod went to his death claiming the throne should pass to a man. He's given off multiple hints that he's a blunt, unsubtle person, quite a lot like Stannis.

I seriously doubt he was recruited per se, because he is unlikely to be an intriguer or to support a coup. There may have been conversations like this, but no more: "say Ironrod, hypothetically speaking here only, because we're all good king's men here, but if a king were to die and a civil war happened, and it was a male vs. a female, what would the law have to say about this?" They aren't even remotely impugning his honor by asking what *he'd do*, instead they are asking him, as master of laws, to settle a difficult legal issue. But it also serves as a guide to what Ironrod himself would do, since he would always follow the law. So when Ironrod answers "the law says the throne must pass to a man", they know all they need to know. He's with them.

So the Greens were confident because he's one of those "natural allies". A guy who has a deep moral conviction/belief in the same things the Greens were representing. Note that this works even if the Greens are simply doing it as a power grab or as self-preservation (or both), and the male vs female angle is mere propaganda. Ironrod supports the Andal tradition, period. Bribes won't sway him, neither will flattery nor the hopelessness of his cause. Iron, like Stannis, breaks before it bends. Of course, why does Ironrod support the law over the decree of the King? That's the human element I suppose. Stannis chose his brother over the King, and in doing so pointed out that he was basically dishonorable regardless of his choice, and there was no 3rd choice or a way to abstain from choosing. It helps a lot that the Greens had a major jump on the situation. So Ironrod was never forced to choose the weaker side over his honor.

But if I'm wrong, or even if I'm not: Ironrod was also Lord of the Rain House, which just so happens to be directly sworn to Storm's End. If there were plans to subvert Lord Borros, Ironrod would be positioned to know about it. In other words, if the Greens didn't tell him they were recruiting the Baratheons, he may have figured it out on his own. Surely Lord Wylde, as a vassal, would visit Storm's End from time to time. If Ironrod turns out to be a willing or at least somewhat-willing intriguer, he could've been plotting with or at least trying to manipulate Lord Borros well in advance of King Viserys' death.

[Lord Varys]

THB,

we don't have to say 'the Citadel was in league with the Hightowers', I'd rather think that the Lord of Oldtown who also holds the title 'Defender of the Citadel' can put a lot of pressure on the Citadel to get what he want. We don't yet know who in the Citadel decides which maester goes to which castle when the old maester, but I'm inclined to believe that this is an decision not made by a full conclave of Archmaesters (then those guys would vote on who goes to which castle pretty much all the time). That duty could come with the office of Seneschal of the Citadel, and I think it would be very easy for the Lord of Oldtown to demand that the Senschal do him a favor once in awhile.

And it may even be that Ser Otto Hightower once studied at the Citadel himself. He took no maester's vow, obviously, but that would not have prevented him from forging links. He was supposedly a very learned man. That could indicate that he had personal connections to the Archmaesters.

On the death of the dragons: Well, this Shepherd guy was directing the rage of the crowds, that much we do know for sure. One could suspect that the people started to get mad at a very convenient moment. Yes, the city was threatened, and yes, there was good reason to be afraid. But no Green dragonriders nor any Green soldiers had yet reached the city. It was not yet besieged or attacked. All I'm saying is that it may be a little bit to convenient that the anger in the city turned against the dragons instead of Rhaenyra. She supposedly had beloved Helaena murdered, after all. Taking the Red Keep and Rhaenyra in it could have saved the city from the Green army and dragons.

If an invisible hand caused/directed the attack on the Dragonpit, the thought that this hand also provided a means to ensure that the poor bastards attacking the dragons would finish the job does not sound so stupid to me.

Varys has the means to pull such a stand off in the main series. I don't suspect that Larys Strong hates dragons, but I think that a competent hand behind the scenes could arrange such a thing.

On Gerardys:

If Varys is right - and we have no reason to doubt him on that - then Grand Maester Gerardys was fed to Sunfyre (the dragon of Aegon II). Thus we have to assume that this happened in the first months of the war. The only other option is that Aegon fed him to Sunfyre after he took Dragonstone. But that makes little sense since Rhaenyra's Grand Maester - if she appointed a new one - would have been not at Dragonstone when Aegon took it. He could have traveled with Rhaenyra to Dragonstone to die shortly after her, but if that would be the story then I think it would have been mentioned in passing in TPatQ. Ran indicated to me that the story of Gerardys was 'secret history', and thus Gyldayn may be totally unaware of it...

Orwyle disappears from the published version of TPatQ after he is arrested by Daemon's Goldcloaks. But this does not mean anything. If Orwyle was Daemon's man Daemon would not have told that story his henchmen, nor would Gyldayn spent many words on the duplicity of a Grand Maester of the Realm. It's entirely possible that Orwyle was freed from the cells and reinstated as Grand Maester as soon as Rhaenyra ascended the Iron Throne.

Viserys's death: My guess is that he was really sick, but that his affliction was not necessarily terminal. If that was the case, and if it would have been widely known, then Rhaenyra and Daemon would have been called back to KL by their people there. Especially since Orwyle should have been the one treating the king's illness, and we all believe that he was not exactly against Rhaenyra.

Otto and Alicent then jumped on the chance to murder him in a convenient moment. If there was no chance that he would change his mind on the matter of succession, things would start to go back in Rhaenyra's favor. Jace is the one son of Rhaenyra who really seems to be an exceptional person. He shows Robb-like qualities as a leader, and such a character could only have worked in favor of Rhaenyra in the long run. We don't know yet if he was betrothed to anyone (my money is on Baela) but if not, then he could have secured a powerful house for Rhaenyra simply by choosing a bride from a great house.

It's a pity that we have no idea about Viserys's personality. Yes, he was a jolly fellow in his youth, but how was his relationship to Rhaenyra and Daemon in his last years? Daemon did have clashes with Ser Otto, and he did serve on the Small Council at one point.

On Ironrod:

I did not think about comparing him to Stannis. I more thought that the 'Ironrod' name indicated that he was a very rigid judge, earning the name while fulfilling his duties as Master of Laws (if we assume that the Master of Laws does indeed sit in judgment over smaller matters). And And it may be that his last words indicate that he did not really understand why he was executed, considering that he had only done what is right (at least in his mind). He is the one who actually comes up with the legal stuff on the Great Council of 101 AC, and Jaehaerys decision to prefer Baelon over Rhaenys. Which means that he may be the only one on the Green Council who actually believed that the law did matter in this case. Otto, Alicent, Cole, and Tyland had other motives, and I'm not sure what Larys's motives were.

On the Mushroom piece: Well, I've expected that Viserys was poisoned from the very moment GRRM revealed that Mushroom was a jester at the court of Viserys I. That was back then when I thought TPatQ would depict the events leading up to the Dance.

[TheYoungWolf89]

Maybe GRRM just has me paranoid, but I feel like the story wants to tell us something about the main series. Anybody else see parallels between Aegon and Loras in regards to Dragonstone? Could be nothing, but GRRM does have a way of sneaking those kinds of things in.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Maybe GRRM just has me paranoid, but I feel like the story wants to tell us something about the main series. Anybody else see parallels between Aegon and Loras in regards to Dragonstone? Could be nothing, but GRRM does have a way of sneaking those kinds of things in.

Why would Loras be hiding on DS?

[Hardstone]

Why would Loras be hiding on DS?

I think he was referring to the horrific burns and injuries that Aegon suffered.

On Gerardys:

If Varys is right - and we have no reason to doubt him on that - then Grand Maester Gerardys was fed to Sunfyre (the dragon of Aegon II). Thus we have to assume that this happened in the first months of the war. The only other option is that Aegon fed him to Sunfyre after he took Dragonstone. But that makes little sense since Rhaenyra's Grand Maester - if she appointed a new one - would have been not at Dragonstone when Aegon took it. He could have traveled with Rhaenyra to Dragonstone to die shortly after her, but if that would be the story then I think it would have been mentioned in passing in TPatQ. Ran indicated to me that the story of Gerardys was 'secret history', and thus Gyldayn may be totally unaware of it...

Maybe Gerardys was being sent as a replacement for Orwyle (he died or was imprisoned) via ship which stopped/forced to land at Dragonstone after Aegon II took the keep. He may have served him for a brief time before Aegon fed him to Sunfyre?

Does everyone believe that after Rhaenyra abandoned King's Landing that no one was left in charge of the city? I think I read it here that when Aegon II finally returns to King's Landing that King Trystane is sitting on the Iron Throne. I'd love that. :)

Do we know how long Aegon II remained on Dragonstone after Rhaenyra's death?

[The hairy bear]

On Gerardys:

If Varys is right - and we have no reason to doubt him on that - then Grand Maester Gerardys was fed to Sunfyre (the dragon of Aegon II). Thus we have to assume that this happened in the first months of the war.

The problem with this is that in the first months of the war, Rhaenyra and her court didn't move from Dragonstone. Then Sunfyre was wounded in Rook's Rest, and stayed there until he reappeared in Dragonstone. It don't see how Aegon II could capture Rhaneyra's Grand Maester in the early months of the war.

Ran indicated to me that the story of Gerardys was 'secret history', and thus Gyldayn may be totally unaware of it...

I wasn't aware of Ran saying that.

We know that only the Conclave designates the Grand Maesters. Perhaps, if Rhaenyra appointed Gerardys ignoring the Citadel, he is not considered a real Grand Maester. He could have been ravelling with Rhaenyra and given to Sunfyre after her, with Glyndayn not mentioning it either because he isn't aware of him, because he considers him irrelevant, or because he doesn't want to delve into maesters being executed as traitors.

[The hairy bear]

Do we know how long Aegon II remained on Dragonstone after Rhaenyra's death?

We have some information on that:

• Rhaenyra is executed on the 22nd day of the 10th moon of year 130.
• Sunfyre dies of his wounds, in Dragonstone, on the 9th day of the 12th moon of year 130 (some 60 days later)

Aegon II is still in Dragonstone when Sunfyre dies. "After his grief had passed, King Aegon II summoned his loyalists and made plans for his return to King's Landing".

[Lord Varys]

It's unlikely that the Citadel would send a replacement Grand Maester to Queen Rhaenyra in KL/Dragonstone with the Hightowers controlling the city. And we would have to assume that such a new Grand Maester would be supposed to go to Queen Rhaenyra since he would have gone on the ship while Rhaenyra still held KL.

One could speculate whether Gerardys/Orwyle were involved in an anti-dragon conspiracy thing. The Dance would provide the ideal distraction for such a thing, and Orwyle may actually be playing both sides to his advantage. If the main series indicates anything then that most of the players at court have their own goals. And we should not make the mistake to assume that just because Pycelle sucks as top-level schemer other (Grand) Maester were as stupid as he was. The same is true for the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, by the way. Criston Cole seems to be a formidable warrior and battle commander as well as courtier and schemer. It's good to see that not all LC on the Small Council were like Barristan or Jaime.

It may be likely that Orwyle's fall, and Gerardys's rise and fall were connected to some plotting behind the scenes, eventually uncovered by Larys Strong. Aegon II does not seem the kind of guy to see through deception. Another possibility is that Orwyle did not return to KL in the original story. If the Arryk-Erryk-thing happened on Dragonstone during the original peace negotiations, Orwyle may have stayed on Dragonstone afterwards (either by force or of his own free will). Then the Greens would have to install a new Grand Maester, and it could be that Orwyle later returned to KL after the fall or Gerardys (perhaps in the wake or in preparation of the Blood and Cheese thing).

On KL and King Trystane:

It was me who suggested that Aegon II may find 'King Trystane' on the Iron Throne when he finally returns to KL. It seems that all of Rhaenyra's loyalists abandon the city with her, nobody is mentioned of staying back to take charge of the city in her absence. The Hightower army finally disbands after the Second Battle of Tumbleton, and it did not appear as if Addam Velaryon's Black army had any intention of going to KL. They would have done that, I think, if Addam had survived.

The only power left in KL are Ser Perkin and 'King Trystane'. Aegon II apparently does not return to KL immediately after Rhaenyra's death. Rhaenyra dies in the tenth month, and Sunfyre dies in the twelfth month of 130 (which provides a window of two months in which the Gerardys execution could have happened as well as before Aegon and Sunfyre were separated). It's really sad that the story breaks up where it does. The meeting of Rhaenyra and Aegon is full of symbolism. Both already seem to wraiths when they encounter each other, and I think that feeling would have continued. When Aegon II returns to KL he will most likely find 'King Trystane' on the Iron Throne, with Perkin and his gutter rats feeding on the remnants of the city. I'd not be surprised if Alicent is going to forced to serve Trystane/Perkin as his bed slave. Wouldn't it be fitting if she became Trystane's fortnight queen?

Aegon II may also need more men than his Dragonstone garrison can offer to retake KL. He no longer has a dragon. I guess that's were Borros Baratheon finally comes into play.

And the Black armies who are already on the march should be additional Northern and Vale troops. The Manderlys did appear to go back to White Harbor in defeat. They most certainly want to raise additional troops. And it's not unlikely the Northern army led by Roddy the Ruin was only part of the men Winterfell raised. Gyldayn writes that men were gathering at White Harbor, Barrowton, Sisterton, and Winterfell. The Barrowton men, and some of the White Harbor men came south, but it does not strike me likely that the Winterfell army has come south yet. If men assembled at Winterfell, then it's very likely that at least one Stark is going to come south with them, even if Lord Cregan is going to stay at home.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think he was referring to the horrific burns and injuries that Aegon suffered.

So he's suggesting Loras fought a dragon?

[RumHam]

I'd not be surprised if Alicent is going to forced to serve Trystane/Perkin as his bed slave. Wouldn't it be fitting if she became Trystane's fortnight queen?

I sorta forgot about her at that point in the story, they left her in King's Landing? Seems odd I would expect them to kill her or take her along as a hostage.

[Hardstone]

So he's suggesting Loras fought a dragon?

I didn't think YoungWolf was when I read the comment. I thought they were just making reference to Aegon being burned and broken on Dragonstone which just so happens to be what we are told Loras' current state is.

I'm just as clueless about the paranoia YoungWolf feels though.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

I think Youngwolf meant that Loras was attempting to tame/ride a dragon. Similar to Quentyn and Dany's attempts in Meeren. If Dany wasn't more or less fireproof she would have been burnt from Drogon's breath. Loras isn't fireproof so whether he or not succeeded he might have ended up burnt from the attempt.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I didn't think YoungWolf was when I read the comment. I thought they were just making reference to Aegon being burned and broken on Dragonstone which just so happens to be what we are told Loras' current state is.

I'm just as clueless about the paranoia YoungWolf feels though.

The only commonalities are the location and the severe burns. We know Aegon was burned by dragon fire and we know he was hiding on Dragonstone. Since there's no reason for Loras to hide on DS (everybody assumes he's there) the only potential foreshadowing would be if Loras got burned by a dragon and for whatever reason that hasn't been reported back to the continent.

[Colonel Green]

I thought it was interesting that Vhagar the uber-dragon is, for obvious reasons, such a major prize that she's been in constant use well after her original rider died; and the same seemingly true of Balerion -- but Vermithor, the second-most-powerful living dragon at the time of the story, was apparently just left to his own devices on Dragonstone after Jaehaerys I died. You would think that the combination of his power and the prestige of being the Old King's mount would have seen him put back into service quickly.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I thought it was interesting that Vhagar the uber-dragon is, for obvious reasons, such a major prize that she's been in constant use well after her original rider died; and the same seemingly true of Balerion -- but Vermithor, the second-most-powerful living dragon at the time of the story, was apparently just left to his own devices on Dragonstone after Jaehaerys I died. You would think that the combination of his power and the prestige of being the Old King's mount would have seen him put back into service quickly.

It might have something to do with timing. When Jaehaerys died, Alicents children and grandchildren hadn't been born yet. And letting small children try to conquer am extremely large dragon... Seems extremely dangerous to me.

That's where Aemond be an exception. He doesn't seem to fear very much, which might explain how he got to try and win control over huge Vhagar.

[Lord Varys]

It would be interesting to know who Vhagar's rider was before Aemond claimed her. It seems as if Aegon II and Daeron bonded with the dragons that hatched from their eggs, but if we assume that Aemond's egg did not hatch, or that his hatchling died before he could claim him (perhaps he was twisted like Rhaena's, or killed during one of the Cannibal's attacks on the hatcheries on Dragonstone) then his only chance was to try and claim a grown-up dragon later on in life. And I guess Aemond only dared doing that as an 15-year-old or so. He is nineteen in the beginning of the Dance and seems to be in control of Vhagar, so I guess he had some time to bond with her.

If we assume that all of Jaehaerys's children and grandchildren - at least those who became dragonriders - bonded with the dragons who hatched from their eggs - there would have been no possible Targaryen dragon rider to claim Vermithor and Silverwing upon Jaehaerys's and Viserys's death. But for that to make sense, Viserys I and Laena Velaryon must have had their own dragons, too. Which is why I believe that not only Daemon but Viserys and Laena were involved in the war at the Stepstones, too. Laena could have been killed alongside her dragon, whereas Seasmoke apparently survived the death of Laenor. It's stated that Triarchy had faced dragons before, which means that they did not only face Caraxes in battle. But it could also be that Viserys lost his dragon in his youth before he ascended to the Iron Throne, or during the early years of his reign.

I'd also not surprised if Jaehaerys and Alysanne decreed that their dragons be allowed 'to retire' on Dragonstone after their deaths to outlive their natural lifespan without being forced to serve as mounts for ambitious men. That could explain why Rhaenyra only served them back into service when she was in dire need of them...

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

There is a short timespan during which Laena and Laenor could have died. It seems rather strange that they died of natural causes so shortly after each other, though of course not impossible. Both of them fighting at the Stepstones could explain that.

Do we have a time frame for the Stepstones?