MH370 - The Mystery Missing Flight

[DanteGabriel]

Nothing new, it's been reported for a long time that one pilot said something like "Everything's ok, Good bye" when leaving the Malaysian-controlled airspace. Contacts ceased shortly after. Though people at the air control facility probably assumed it was just a "See you, guys".

And for all we know, it may well have been an innocuous "good night" call. The pilot-blaming angle seems to come mostly from the Malaysian government, who can't seem to find their own asses with two hands and a dog.

[davos]

I'm starting to think there is a real possibility that this is one incident we simply will never have good answers for. We forget exactly how vast this world is. If the plane went down relatively intact in a deep part of the Indian Ocean and sunk fairly quickly, any trace could have been gone by the time the investigation turned in that direction.

[Shryke]

And for all we know, it may well have been an innocuous "good night" call. The pilot-blaming angle seems to come mostly from the Malaysian government, who can't seem to find their own asses with two hands and a dog.

Well, also because the alternatives for them flying ridiculously off course for quite awhile, while still being piloted, seems to leave few alternatives.

Although yes, the Malaysian government has just sucked at this.

[Ran]

The US and Australia are preparing to search an area 3000km SW of Perth. That would fit the satellite data for a last possible position for the plane at the outermost edge of its range.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The US and Australia are preparing to search an area 3000km SW of Perth. That would fit the satellite data for a last possible position for the plane at the outermost edge of its range.

Interesting. I read the article and am just wondering what type of political protest happens in absolute silence, and with the chance that the plane is never discovered.

It doesn't strike me as achieving very much. And it doesn't serve his cause much, either, along with killing 239 innocent people.

If you discount the "he was mentally unhinged" option, it doesn't make any sense.

[Maltaran]

The US and Australia are preparing to search an area 3000km SW of Perth. That would fit the satellite data for a last possible position for the plane at the outermost edge of its range.

Also, China is prearing a land search on the part of the northern arc that's inside its territory.

[Werthead]

Interesting theory here. Based on the timing involved, another 777 was in the vicinity of the last confirmed location west of the Malaysian peninsula. It has been suggested that the missing plane could have turned into that plane's shadow (that plane was headed for Spain via India and Central Asia). At 1-2 miles separation the radar return would have either been of just one contact, or would have shown up as unclear ghosting of a kind that is commonly-encountered and would not have triggered any kind of alarm. Using this technique, the plane could have passed through Indian and Pakistani radar undetected and then turned off into Central Asia once clear.

It's an interesting idea, but it seems to be a bit far-fetched, requiring as it would the 777 to remain behind the other plane continuously for hours without anyone noticing, not to mention intercepting it with perfect timing (though if the pilot is as good as is reported, this shouldn't have been too difficult). Apparently with the transponders switched off, the plane in front wouldn't have noticed the Malaysian flight sitting behind them, and the Malaysian plane just needed to be slightly above it to avoid running into turbulance.

[Fragile Bird]

I posted earlier in the the thread that the optimistic side of me hoped that the plane had crashed, as tragic as that would be, but the pessimist in me said it was a hijacking.

Now I see a theory that I can get behind, fire in the airplane. Here in Canada we have strong memories of the Swissair flight that tried to ditch in the Atlantic south of Halifax, because they couldn't make it to the airport in time. Fire in the electrical system moved too fast. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

The left turn is the key here. Zaharie Ahmad Shah¹ was a very experienced senior captain with 18,000 hours of flight time. We old pilots were drilled to know what is the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us, and airports ahead of us. They’re always in our head. Always. If something happens, you don’t want to be thinking about what are you going to do–you already know what you are going to do. When I saw that left turn with a direct heading, I instinctively knew he was heading for an airport. He was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot airstrip with an approach over water and no obstacles. The captain did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000-foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier toward Langkawi, which also was closer.

Take a look at this airport on Google Earth. The pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make an immediate turn to the closest, safest airport.

For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations.

There are two types of fires. An electrical fire might not be as fast and furious, and there may or may not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility, given the timeline, that there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires, it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes, this happens with underinflated tires. Remember: Heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long-run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. Once going, a tire fire would produce horrific, incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter, but this will last only a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one in my flight bag, and I still carry one in my briefcase when I fly.)

What I think happened is the flight crew was overcome by smoke and the plane continued on the heading, probably on George (autopilot), until it ran out of fuel or the fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. You will find it along that route–looking elsewhere is pointless.

This is a theory I can believe.

[Ixodes]

I posted earlier in the the thread that the optimistic side of me hoped that the plane had crashed, as tragic as that would be, but the pessimist in me said it was a hijacking.

Now I see a theory that I can get behind, fire in the airplane. Here in Canada we have strong memories of the Swissair flight that tried to ditch in the Atlantic south of Halifax, because they couldn't make it to the airport in time. Fire in the electrical system moved too fast. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

This is a theory I can believe.

Interesting read. I sincerely hope they find some answers soon.

[Maithanet]

Now I see a theory that I can get behind, fire in the airplane. Here in Canada we have strong memories of the Swissair flight that tried to ditch in the Atlantic south of Halifax, because they couldn't make it to the airport in time. Fire in the electrical system moved too fast. http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

This is a theory I can believe.

I agree that is an interesting possibility. Nothing about that story really jumps out at me as implausible.

[DaveSumm]

I do like the theory, particularly as it removes the issues with all theories that posit pilot or passenger hijacking; motive. I still can't get my head round why anyone would bother with anything as elaborate as those theories. But correct me if I'm wrong, this doesn't explain the second trajectory change to the northwest/south corridors does it?

[naz]

I do like the theory, particularly as it removes the issues with all theories that posit pilot or passenger hijacking; motive. I still can't get my head round why anyone would bother with anything as elaborate as those theories. But correct me if I'm wrong, this doesn't explain the second trajectory change to the northwest/south corridors does it?

[DaveSumm]

Those north/south arcs are not "corridors" and they don't represent a trajectory change. They represent a series of possible points at which the satellite last received a "ping" from the plane. That point could be anywhere along those arcs. The arcs themselves don't represent a flight path, just an intersection with one.

So these 'pings' could include the possibility that the plane never deviated after its initial turn westward? I understand that the arcs don't represent flight paths, but it's been widely reported that the plane *must* have turned either NW or south. But then much has been widely reported and subsequently transpired to be wrong, I suppose. The ACARS timing, for example. Maybe I was too hard on the media earlier in the thread for not connecting the dots, perhaps they had experts who were doubting the Malaysian's version of events.

I see now some families are going on hunger strike till they are told 'the truth'. It must be horrific for them, but I personally doubt that the Malaysian's are covering up anything significant. It all seems much more like incompetence than conspiracy. You'd imagine a conspiracy would be accompanied by a better plan to divulge information than the one we've seen.

[Fragile Bird]

If the fire theory is in fact correct, it dramatically reduces the charge of incompetency against the Malaysians, IMO. They weren't incompetent as much as thoroughly lost for an answer. If a plane left US airspace and was flying between radar points and fire broke out like that, could the USA or a European country have tracked them down? The big issue, I think, is with the fact the pilots did not report a fire if in fact that's what happened. It may have happened so quickly they decided to shut things down to try to identify where the fire was, thinking they would be able to handle the fire, but were wrong.

[Fragile Bird]

Back to the hijacking theory.

The conspiracy folk had targeted the guys with the phony passports because they had laptops. But anyone with an Android phone could hack the plane communication systems and take over the pilots' control panel. Here is a brief NerdAlert explanation of the issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_sV36qdu7M

The fellow they are talking about is Hugo Teso, an aviation security specialist, and he did a one hour presentation at Defcon in 2013. It's easily available on You Tube, I don't want to post it here. Someone could be watching. :uhoh:

[Fragile Bird]

Ok, I shall be less paranoid. Or, incredibly more paranoid.

On the topic of tracking planes and hacking, if you want the s**t scared out of you, watch this presentation at the same Def Con - Hacking Planes, Brad Haines

I might never fly again. :o

ETA at 8.24 pm - Back into bizzarro land - the information on the pilot's home flight simulator has been wiped clean. The Malaysian government has asked for the help of the FBI to recover the data.

[Jackson5tributeband]

25 metre object found by the Australian airforce, looks like the real deal

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-20/raaf-en-route-to-possible-debris-from-mh370-in-indian-ocean/5334314

[arya_underfoot]

25 metre object found by the Australian airforce, looks like the real deal

Really? It certainly deserves to be investigated but there's nothing about the pictures released to suggest it is the real deal apart from being found at a plausible location. I suppose they could have other photos that are more convincing.

[Reposado]

ETA at 8.24 pm - Back into bizzarro land - the information on the pilot's home flight simulator has been wiped clean. The Malaysian government has asked for the help of the FBI to recover the data.

I thought it was possibly just standard deletion of save files. I regularly delete civ files but its not because I'm trying to hide my planned invasion of Carthage.

[Fragile Bird]

Sounds logical, except when a plane you are flying disappears.