R+L=J v.132

[Mithras]

Why? This isn't the petty LC voting system where Jon wins by cleverness and the raven trick/manipulation. He "wins" on merit. And besides, the way you've set it up a page back, the three most likely candidates (Dany, Stannis, and fAegon) are all dead. So why the trickery? If Jon is the only one left standing with a logical claim and backing why is a raven necessary? What role is it going to play? It won't have the same resonance as it did at the Wall when the raven was the "pet" of the former LC and it was an obvious passing of the torch from beyond the grave.

Since Bran means raven, I used them interchangeably. Bloodraven was manipulating the election through Mormont's Raven. If the Green Men will come (which I think they will because the Great Council will be at Harrenhal, which will also be the new capitol and the Green Men will be needed to lift the curse there). If the Green Men will appear, Bran will be the one communicating with them.

This will be another layer of parallel between Jon-Aragorn as how the elves came to Gondor for Aragorn. Note that after Sauron was gone, the world changed and the elves left the world for the age of the men has begun. Elrond gave the kingship to Aragorn and left the world. This is exactly passing of the torch.

[sj4iy]

S4 History and Lore: The Kingsguard.

Narrated by (in the perspective of) Bronn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=us99yrkwCAA

"...Hiding the Stark girl that Prince Rhaegar stole away..."

Yeah, kind of sums up the KG for me.

As much as I disagree with the practicality of a position like the KG, I don't agree with Bronn's position. Of course, he's a sellsword who doesn't give a damn about honor, which is fine. I'm not a big believer in 'honor', either. But if you swear a vow to do something, like guard the king with your life, even if that king is a horrible king, then that's what you should do. Jaime wasn't forced into taking that vow. Yet he broke it, anyway. Now, did he have good reason to do so? Hell yes. But he still should have faced the consequences for breaking his vow. He should have been sent to the Wall for what he did.

I do find it interesting to see that they mentioned Hightower and Dayne protecting Rhaegar. Maybe we will get something on that in the show soon.

[J. Stargaryen]

Pardon my intrusion, but has this synopsis, that as far as I can tell originates from German Amazon for TWOW, been discussed here? I think it is genuine, and despite what some think of Dany and her arc, I always expected exactly what this synopsis says.

Just as a point of information this particular synopsis introduced by Han above has appeared before and appears to relate not to the forthcoming Winds of Winter but the one planned as the third volume in the original trilogy and should therefore be read in sequence with the larger synopsis revealed a couple of weeks ago, in which Danaerys' invasion of Westeros was scheduled to take place in book 2

GRRM wrote the 1993 synopsis of AGoT, right? Who is supposed to have written this one?

[RumHam]

Ned told Robert that his claim was better than Jon Arryn's or his. That means both Jon Arryn or Ned had a considerable claim to even the IT.

It really doesn't. I don't know how people can still make this claim after the worldbook. Maybe the Arryn's have another Targaryen marriage in there somewhere, but we know the Starks don't.

[Mithras]

It really doesn't. I don't know how people can still make this claim after the worldbook. Maybe the Arryn's have another Targaryen marriage in there somewhere, but we know the Starks don't.

My point was to emphasize that even without having Targ blood, Jon and Ned had some sort of claim. In the upcoming Great Council, many people without having Targ blood will be able to make their claims.

[Ser Leftwich]

<snip>

I see you've been reading my posts. I'm impressed. But what in the world makes you think I'd be oblivious to that fact? And what exactly do you think that lack of proof is offered as a counter-argument to?

When statements to that effect at made:

Nope. No proof. I'm not arguing that my theory is proven or provable, only that it is possible/plausible given what little we know. To that extent, the absence of concrete evidence to the contrary supports my case.

The absence of evidence does not make your case stronger and other cases weaker.

[RumHam]

My point was to emphasize that even without having Targ blood, Jon and Ned had some sort of claim. In the upcoming Great Council, many people without having Targ blood will be able to make their claims.

Gotcha. I don't really agree though. I think one of the great houses ruling the others would be a very hard sell. They're more likely to split back into separate kingdoms.

[Mithras]

Gotcha. I don't really agree though. I think one of the great houses ruling the others would be a very hard sell. They're more likely to split back into separate kingdoms.

I think going back to seperate kingdoms will not be desired because some regions like Riverlands will be so devastated that they will not be able to defend what is left to them. So, they need king's peace.

In addition, I doubt any seperate and small kingdom will be able to get loans from Free Cities, which are surely needed to repair the damage.

Moreover, we have no idea about how the Others will exactly be defeated. By the end, it will be quite obvious that sending men and supplies to the NW should have always been a public service that every Lord must participate. In seperate kingdoms, everything about the NW will be left to the Starks again, which will surely not be enough. A strong king should be able to force a law demanding every Lord to contribute to the NW proportional to their population/wealth.

[BearQueen87]

I think going back to seperate kingdoms will not be desired because some regions like Riverlands will be so devastated that they will not be able to defend what is left to them. So, they need king's peace.

In addition, I doubt any seperate and small kingdom will be able to get loans from Free Cities, which are surely needed to repair the damage.

Moreover, we have no idea about how the Others will exactly be defeated. By the end, it will be quite obvious that sending men and supplies to the NW should have always been a public service that every Lord must participate. In seperate kingdoms, everything about the NW will be left to the Starks again, which will surely not be enough. A strong king should be able to force a law demanding every Lord to contribute to the NW proportional to their population/wealth.

This assumes that there is even a NW or Wall left after the War for the Dawn. If, as you say, the Others are defeated, and Jon continues his work of integration of the Wildlings into the 7K then what's the point having a NW and thus having this law?

As for the Kingdoms, I think there might be a split but it won't be back to 7 independent kingdoms. Dorne seems likely to break away; they've always been different from the other 6.

[RumHam]

I'm not sure that the Starks bore more of the burden of supplying the Watch before the Targaryens came. It seems clear the northern lords provide them with the most, but even before the conquest we have things like Nymeria sending them six kings.

It does seem that for whatever reason (less conflict resulting in people taking the black? the New Gift? Taxes to the Iron Throne cutting into money that might have otherwise been donated to the Watch?) the Watch declined rapidly after the Conquest, going from at least 10,000 men to probably less than a thousand over three hundred years.

[markg171]

Show spoiler:

This might be a relevant argument if they had cast a show!Aegon.

Well so far, they haven't. They still could however.

Interestingly enough, they choose Varys to narrate the feature...

[Mithras]

This assumes that there is even a NW or Wall left after the War for the Dawn. If, as you say, the Others are defeated, and Jon continues his work of integration of the Wildlings into the 7K then what's the point having a NW and thus having this law?

This assumes that the wildlings will want to be integrated to the 7K.

We have no idea about the nature of the Others. I think it is quite possible that they are no more special than dozens of races revealed in TWOIAF. The Others apparently thrive in winters and they live in the arctic. They do not attack the Realm for some hidden agenda, no more than why Balon raided the North. They are just expanding their domains and this is only possible because of the foolishness of men whose mistakes are the causes of such long and terrible winters.

So, I think the most plausible ending is that the Others will be driven to where they naturally belong. After the clock of the earth is set right again, they will not be able to invade the Realm, as long as men do not do some twisted magic and break the balance of the world.

In this scenario, the NW will still have to continue in case the Others might come again. Westeros is not the only place in Planetos. Some fool bloodmagicians in Asshai might again do some crazy shit and cause another Long Night.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

When statements to that effect at made:

The absence of evidence does not make your case stronger and other cases weaker.

Sorry, I'm not sure I follow. How does this apply to Consigliere's comment or to my response? Can you clarify?

[Ser Leftwich]

Sorry, I'm not sure I follow. How does this apply to Consigliere's comment or to my response? Can you clarify?

Proposing 'satisfactory' alternatives to R+L=J that fail to address the same problems that some argue R+L=J have.

For example: You can't even prove R+L had sex, so R+L=/=J. But, it is possible that Lyanna+Tywin = Jon, because Lyanna and Tywin were alive at the same time and a man + a woman can make a baby.

The use of the concept of "a lack of concrete evidence makes my case better" is completely devoid of merit in the analysis of a book.

[Ser Creighton]

Pardon my intrusion, but has this synopsis, that as far as I can tell originates from German Amazon for TWOW, been discussed here? I think it is genuine, and despite what some think of Dany and her arc, I always expected exactly what this synopsis says.

Ok well, I don't know if this has been fully addressed, I have seen it before. But just my 2 cents on the synopsis. Yeah it was from Amazon, so I guess I'll tell you what little understanding I have of it. Anything in that synposis could of been derived from the books. However Martin would of never written that, the author does not write the synopsis, the publisher does. The author writes a treatment, and traditionally they will do it for each book and it's 1-4 pages, writers also do this for movies and TV pilots. It's a proposal for a publisher, traditionally for any book it will be a treatment and later a certain amount of pagess required and that is part of the contract in which the author gets paid, though Martin has a ton of wiggle room.

So if in fact that was a synopsis written by a publisher it would be based off the treatment. Now certain things would not be in, Jon for one. Jon ended on a cliffhanger you are not going to give that away in a synopsis. Winds will probably be very Dany oriented, it seems set up that way. Jon and Bran will probably have massive roles as well but Jon is probably got a bigger role in spring, Bran too. It's just away from the wall the Author has far more to deal with at this time. You got multiple major plots and tons of sub plots to tie up. He is not going to live that stuff open, he does not like loose ends and so that is a lot of writing.

Nothing is set in stone Martin has always had some broad strokes that he follows but hegoes where the story takes him and makes sense to him. As we see from the 93 treatment, it's not that accurate to the story we are told, but we do see some broad strokes from it.

Will Dany come to Westeros? Of course, Martin has said it multiple times.

Will Dany come to Westeros in Winds and do all the stuff in that synopsis? That seems a stretch to me, she has so much to do in Essos still, and yeah he has the option the long night reset button. That changes just about everything everyone is doing. I think he is going to do that but not before he ties up a lot of the sub plots and sets it up to be an appropriate transition and not an actual reset.

All that said the proposed synopsis if it is real is probably loosly based off what is probably a loosly based treatment. Lion and Wolf are not fighting, Unless Sansa goes after the Lannisters, which is possible. You are not getting Jon in a synopsis it's to big a cliffhanger. I am not sure where Arya's story is currently going to move too, where that is going is a big mystery. Stannis and Davos? Umm Stannis is also on a Cliffhanger, is he dead or alive? He's alive but you don't give it away. Dany being a major focus of the synopsis would actually seem pretty normal, there is not a lot of mystery there, and is one of the major POV's and one of the major plot lines and you don;t give much away.

Though here is thing, what publisher would give away the Others breaking through the Wall? I mean honestly they can be stupid as we just found out, but still. It could be loosly based of an old treatment, but unless Martin jumps into super speed mode it seems unlikely that all of that would happen in Winds. Martin has his own beats, and while a lot of people like action in the books you don't want to overload it. He had three battles in a book and he showed all three of them in a different way so as to keep it from being repetative. You throw in 8-9 battles and you are shooting yourself in the foot. You got Stannis, Meereen, and the Wall should be going crazy. Now add Volantis, Qarth, whatever direction the Dothraki go, Euron, Aegon, the Tyrells, the Sparrows, the Brotherhood, a giant wolf pack, I can't seem him doing all that and then having Dany come and do everything in that synopsis. It's overload, you need down time, the reader needs to breathe, oh boy battle number 20, and I just read 5 in a row. I think it will have a lot of action but you just can;t get all that done.

I think Dany will end Winds in Westeros but will just be getting there. She can't show up and Martin kills the 2 dozen or so sub plots currently going on in Westeros. It will probably something like Aegons chapter, you get one with her in Westeros, doing some stuff.

[Ser Creighton]

Proposing 'satisfactory' alternatives to R+L=J that fail to address the same problems that some argue R+L=J have.

For example: You can't even prove R+L had sex, so R+L=/=J. But, it is possible that Lyanna+Tywin = Jon, because Lyanna and Tywin were alive at the same time and a man + a woman can make a baby.

The use of the concept of "a lack of concrete evidence makes my case better" is completely devoid of merit in the analysis of a book.

Well the absence of evidence can be used but like any form of formal logic it needs to be logical. R+L=J uses it sometimes. Why doesn't ned show much anger towards Rhaegar. So the basic idea is you look for support for that question, and draw a logical conclussion from it, "why" being the most important question in most cases.

For me R+L+J has plenty of good solid evidence, but if someone does not want to acknowledge that there is nothing you can do. You know if someone is removing context, or applying false attributes or creating a false dichotomy or false dilemma, they are just creating straw man arguments with the express idea of guiding the narrative. Even some fans of R+L=J do it, but when I look at the broad strokes, I feel comfortable in saying that the theory is sound and has plenty of strong evidence. Making a counter argument which lacks any text support and is nothing but a false dilemma, or attempt to guide tha narrative for the sake of argument is just eristic. You are not searching for the truth you are just attempting to disrupt the theory, or debate.

[Ygrain]

it is possible that Lyanna+Tywin = Jon, because Lyanna and Tywin were alive at the same time and a man + a woman can make a baby.

/mindblown/

That sheds totally new light on all our theories. It was really devilish of GRRM to introduce this option! It's way more plausible than the time-travelling sperm theory, therefore it totally must be true!

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Ok well, I don't know if this has been fully addressed, I have seen it before. But just my 2 cents on the synopsis. Yeah it was from Amazon, so I guess I'll tell you what little understanding I have of it. Anything in that synposis could of been derived from the books. However Martin would of never written that, the author does not write the synopsis, the publisher does. The author writes a treatment, and traditionally they will do it for each book and it's 1-4 pages, writers also do this for movies and TV pilots. It's a proposal for a publisher, traditionally for any book it will be a treatment and later a certain amount of pagess required and that is part of the contract in which the author gets paid, though Martin has a ton of wiggle room.

So if in fact that was a synopsis written by a publisher it would be based off the treatment. Now certain things would not be in, Jon for one. Jon ended on a cliffhanger you are not going to give that away in a synopsis. Winds will probably be very Dany oriented, it seems set up that way. Jon and Bran will probably have massive roles as well but Jon is probably got a bigger role in spring, Bran too. It's just away from the wall the Author has far more to deal with at this time. You got multiple major plots and tons of sub plots to tie up. He is not going to live that stuff open, he does not like loose ends and so that is a lot of writing.

Nothing is set in stone Martin has always had some broad strokes that he follows but hegoes where the story takes him and makes sense to him. As we see from the 93 treatment, it's not that accurate to the story we are told, but we do see some broad strokes from it.

Will Dany come to Westeros? Of course, Martin has said it multiple times.

Will Dany come to Westeros in Winds and do all the stuff in that synopsis? That seems a stretch to me, she has so much to do in Essos still, and yeah he has the option the long night reset button. That changes just about everything everyone is doing. I think he is going to do that but not before he ties up a lot of the sub plots and sets it up to be an appropriate transition and not an actual reset.

All that said the proposed synopsis if it is real is probably loosly based off what is probably a loosly based treatment. Lion and Wolf are not fighting, Unless Sansa goes after the Lannisters, which is possible. You are not getting Jon in a synopsis it's to big a cliffhanger. I am not sure where Arya's story is currently going to move too, where that is going is a big mystery. Stannis and Davos? Umm Stannis is also on a Cliffhanger, is he dead or alive? He's alive but you don't give it away. Dany being a major focus of the synopsis would actually seem pretty normal, there is not a lot of mystery there, and is one of the major POV's and one of the major plot lines and you don;t give much away.

Though here is thing, what publisher would give away the Others breaking through the Wall? I mean honestly they can be stupid as we just found out, but still. It could be loosly based of an old treatment, but unless Martin jumps into super speed mode it seems unlikely that all of that would happen in Winds. Martin has his own beats, and while a lot of people like action in the books you don't want to overload it. He had three battles in a book and he showed all three of them in a different way so as to keep it from being repetative. You throw in 8-9 battles and you are shooting yourself in the foot. You got Stannis, Meereen, and the Wall should be going crazy. Now add Volantis, Qarth, whatever direction the Dothraki go, Euron, Aegon, the Tyrells, the Sparrows, the Brotherhood, a giant wolf pack, I can't seem him doing all that and then having Dany come and do everything in that synopsis. It's overload, you need down time, the reader needs to breathe, oh boy battle number 20, and I just read 5 in a row. I think it will have a lot of action but you just can;t get all that done.

I think Dany will end Winds in Westeros but will just be getting there. She can't show up and Martin kills the 2 dozen or so sub plots currently going on in Westeros. It will probably something like Aegons chapter, you get one with her in Westeros, doing some stuff.

So what do you really think though? Is this thing accurate or viable? I mean, if it didnt come from GRRM, did it come from someone who talked to him first? Has there been any comments on it?

Also does anyone know if he has released any kind of statement about the 1993 outline leak?

[Greymoon]

I think the first thing to realize about this new Great Council is that no one will be selecting the best Targaryen heir to the Targaryen throne. Well, except those who support the surviving Targaryen heirs anyway. In fact, the only surviving Targaryen heir will be Dany’s possible child and if Dany becomes the undisputed queen of Westeros before she dies, that child will have the upper hand against everyone.

The upcoming GC will be mainly gathered because the majority of the Lords will need a monarch to rule them and keep the king’s peace as they recover from their wounds. So, the process will resemble a combination of a kingsmoot and the election of the LC.

At such an event, the regent of Sweetrobin and his supporters will absolutely make his claim. Actually, I can make a list of possible claimants and their pros/cons.

1. Sweetrobin (assuming he survives)

Pros: He is an Arryn. His ancestors ruled as Great Kings for nearly 6000 years. He is among the highest nobility. On his mother side, he has very close ties to Riverlands. So far, his power was not diminished and the Vale might survive the Second Dance/War for Dawn with relatively less losses. So, his House during the Great Council will probably be among the most powerful ones.

Cons: He is not directly related to recent monarchs. He is known as a sickly boy. He will not be an adult during the Great Council. Along with other child/baby claimants, depending on a regent will be considered as a con for him. He is not the loveliest boy out there. In the future, he is not likely to do something important to prove his worth to the Realm. House Arryn will be a part of the Second Dance, which means those they fought against might hold grievances towards them.

2. Shireen (assuming she survives)

Pros: She will be the legitimate heir to House Baratheon.

Cons: She is a girl (I know but hey, this is Westeros). She is marked with greyscale. That whoreson called LF produced a disgusting tale about her. She is not an adult, which means dependency on regents. In the future, she is not likely to do something important to prove her worth to the Realm. House Baratheon will have been a part of every conflict and so they will have made lots of enemies. She will also suffer from the bad PR of Stannis.

3. Edric Storm (assuming he survives)

Pros: He is the bastard of a king with a noble motehr. He has the gift of Robert which makes it easy to make friends and inspire loyalty. He might prove himself in the Second Dance. He will not suffer from the bad PR of Stannis.

Cons: He is a bastard. He will likely make enemies during the Second Dance.

4. Dany’s trueborn child (assuming he/she exists)

Pros: He/she is Dany’s child.

Cons: He/she is Dany’s child.

5. Trystane Martell (assuming he survives)

Pros: He is from House Martell. He has legitimate Targaryen ancestry.

Cons: He is Dornish. In the future, he is not likely to do something important to prove his worth to the Realm. House Martell will be one of the primary sides of the Second Dance, which means they will make many bitter foes. The price of fighting against Dany will be very costly. So, the power of House Martell will be very weak during the GC.

6. Gerion Lannister (assuming he lives and survives)

Pros: He is a Lannister. He has the stuff of kings.

Cons: He is a Lannister. He will be at an old age which may cast doubts on whether he will live long enough to have trueborn heirs and raise them. He will take part in the Second Dance on Dany’s side. He lived in exile as the Corsair King. Being a pirate will not help his PR.

...Even when 'democratizing' the GC, if the criteria for the choosing of a new king are too loose, the Great Council is likely to fail in preventing another conflict, don't you think? This is not the Holy Roman Emperor where there was a tradition of electing the next emperor...and even then, the 'election' was rarely left to hazard. In Westeros, the only people who are familiar with elections are the Iron Born and the men of the night's watch, give them too broad a choice and everyone will start pressing their own 'claim'.

What claim does Gerion Lannister have? He missed out on the whole game, that's bound to be a big deterrent. To qualify as a 'candidate' one would imo, need to fulfill at least some of the criteria mentioned below....where 1 takes precedence over 2 and 3 and is sufficient on its own, and 2 and 3 take precedence over the rest but require 4 to be 'validated'...

imo, Pretenders to the Kingship of Westeros should,

1. have the right ancestry (Targaryen or Baratheon if we are talking about the IT; Stark (or Tully) if we are talking about Robb's crown...).

2. have been actively involved in the politics of the realm, and in the interest of benefiting the realm (and not the opposite ;) so no Littlefinger )

have distinguished themselves in battle and/or as a leader during the war in Westeros (not in some far away country).

have ties to at least one of the great houses (blood ties, or marriage ties, the more the better.).

be a known candidate (known personally by GC members or by hearsay, so no random, never before heard of, bastard of Robert...)

not have been absent from westeros over a prolonged period in recent years. (no returning Gerion after X years lost at sea.)

It would seem unlikely for a GC to even consider claimants that fulfill neither 1, 2, nor 3, I think. But a 'candidate' not fulfilling criteria 1, 2 or 3 might still qualify by fulfilling 4, 5 + 6 and with the bonus 7. have a GC member's support/approval...and only if the choices between throne claimants was too narrow and unsatisfactory -- there would be no point in introducing a 'new candidate' otherwise....(and that is the only opportunity for Sweet Robin to even be considered; while Gerion Lannister is definitely out...)

And that's only if we consider democratizing the GC. In Aemon's day you either had Targaryen blood and were thus a 'candidate' or you hadn't, and weren't.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

(1) Proposing 'satisfactory' alternatives to R+L=J that (3b) fail to address the same problems that some argue R+L=J have.

For example: (2) You can't even prove R+L had sex, so R+L=/=J. But, it is possible that Lyanna+Tywin = Jon, because Lyanna and Tywin were alive at the same time and a man + a woman can make a baby.

(3a) The use of the concept of "a lack of concrete evidence makes my case better" is completely devoid of merit in the analysis of a book.

Are you under the impression that:

1. Somewhere I've posted an alternative theory that I claimed was satisfactory?; or that
2. I've argued the lack of proof that R+L had sex means they cannot have had sex?; or that
3. Alternatives I've considered (a) rely on the same evidence, and (b ) should address the same objections, as RLJ theory?

If you're wondering, I would not consider any of these statements representative of my view. Which, I'm sure, is why I'm struggling to understand your argument here.