SeanF Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 8 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said: One thing I don't understand: even if a judge were to declare the deal not biding (which I really doubt anyone would have the guts to), who's supposed to bring it to the court in the first place? Surely not the 28 countries or the Commission as they all agreed to it. It would probably be an individual or individuals. Say, a Polish national who was denied an in-work benefit in the UK. If the Supreme Court agreed that the ECJ should rule on this point, it would refer the case to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 18 hours ago, Lummel said: Would you like UK agriculture with out the CAP though? If I was to crudely suggest what that might be like it would be suggest that there'd be no hill farms outside the charitable sector and one giant wheat farm covering the whole of East Anglia and adjacent counties in so far as they were flat enough. And there'd be no hedges. Subsidy regimes by their very nature tend to be conservative and to keep things by and large as they are - are we ready for an agricultural sector governed purely by market forces, or, and this is what I suspect would often be the case, a UK parliament outside the EU would end up doing much the same as a UK Parliament inside the EU for soft systems thinking reasons - ie it makes political and cultural sense to Parliamentarians. With regard to the Euro I recently read a book on German politics which pointed out that much the same occurred during the pre-Euro recession in the 1990s too. This isn't purely a reflection of a single currency, more of linked and in the case of the PIGS, vulnerable economies. For me this is a big point against Brexit and a huge one in favour of ever closer union - our current political units are far too small to deal with the problems we're confronted with, whether economic, environmental, military, or diplomatic. Ok one can confront any and all of these bilaterally - its just a hell of a lot of work compared to opting to into a bunch of broadly similar thinking states and doing it collectively. Its the same argument as in 1707. And while sharing sovereignty, and with a mess of largely Catholic countries at that, is an awkward prospect to my mind it is easier and better than the alternative (which after all, in the form of EFTA, we have tried) Well, I don't think that Italy, Portugal, Spain, or Greece should ever have been included in the euro. Pre-euro, their economies depended on repeated devaluations to remain competitive. The theory was that ruling out the option of devaluation would force them to liberalise their economies in order to become more competitive. The practice was that their interest rates fell to German levels, stimulating wild property and building booms in Greece, Portugal, and Spain, prior to 2008, followed by wild busts afterwards. All three economies have become a lot more competitive, after 2008, at the cost of big cuts in living standards and very big rises in unemployment. Italy never saw this wild boom. But, closing off the option of devaluation means that the Italian economy just hasn't grown over the past 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HexMachina Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 2 hours ago, SeanF said: There's a good discussion in this article about whether the agreements reached by David Cameron are legally-binding here, in this summary by Joshua Rozenberg:- http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/24/david-cameron-eu-deal-legally-binding-michael-gove-analysis-joshua-rozenberg Conclusion, maybe they are, maybe they aren't. I take your point. regarding the rise of populist parties. I wish we weren't having this vote till next year, so that we could see the outcome of the French and Dutch elections. BBC also have an article on it, with a few more opinions: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35653495 My takeaway from this would be that it is legally binding, but can be subjected to a challenge by the ECJ, although the ECJ is unlikely to allow the challenge 1 hour ago, Filippa Eilhart said: One thing I don't understand: even if a judge were to declare the deal not biding (which I really doubt anyone would have the guts to), who's supposed to bring it to the court in the first place? Surely not the 28 countries or the Commission as they all agreed to it. What Sean said, it should be open to challenge from citizens of the EU. But again, I don't think anyone truly believes a challenge is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Are there currently any poll numbers how the Brits will vote on a Brexit? I think it would bite Britain in the back on two levels. First economically, which has been mentioned here. Second diplomatically. If they leave the EU their influence over European politics becomes close to non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 There's polls all over the shop. The general trend seems to be a fairly even divide between people who care, but the problem is that there is an an absolutely enormous number of people who don't know/care/understand about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 16 hours ago, Notone said: Are there currently any poll numbers how the Brits will vote on a Brexit? I think it would bite Britain in the back on two levels. First economically, which has been mentioned here. Second diplomatically. If they leave the EU their influence over European politics becomes close to non-existent. There have been five separate polls following the deal at the weekend. Survation (phone) Leave 33%, Remain 48% Com Res (phone) Leave 39%, Remain 51% Yougov (online) Leave 38% Remain 37% ICM (online) Leave 40% Remain 42% BMG (online) Leave 41% Remain 44% For some weeks, there's been a big divide between telephone polling companies, showing Remain ahead by about 14% on average, and online polling companies, showing it neck and neck. There's no obvious reason for this discrepancy. The big divide is among Conservative voters. Phone pollsters show them favouring Remain, online pollsters show them favouring Leave. Conservative voters are, clearly, the swing voters in this campaign. They're torn between antipathy to the EU, on the one hand, and loyalty to the Prime Minister, on the other. UKIP voters will split 90/10 Leave, and left wing voters will split 70/30 Remain, in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The BlackBear Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The notorious shy conservative? They're perhaps a little to embarrassed to say to a person that they'd vote leave? But online takes away that person to person aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 10 hours ago, SeanF said: UKIP voters will split 90/10 Leave, Isn't a UKIP voter who wants to stay in the EU rather... oxymoronic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 There are SNP voters who voted for Scotland to remain in the UK in 2014. So ... Wrt the polling discrepancies, I heard that the phone polls ask people to make a decision, and don't ask whether they will vote or not. The online ones allow people to say whether they will vote or not, and if they are undecided. So the really big remain leads we see in the phone polls could be very soft. I still think Leave need to way ahead at this point though, and they are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 8 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: Isn't a UKIP voter rather... moronic? FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 10 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: Isn't a UKIP voter who wants to stay in the EU rather... oxymoronic? Nah. UKIP get a certain percentage of the 'I don't agree with these guys, I'm just fed up with mainstream politicians' vote (the Trump vote, if you will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 There are SNP voters who voted for Scotland to remain in the UK in 2014. So ... Wrt the polling discrepancies, I heard that the phone polls ask people to make a decision, and don't ask whether they will vote or not. The online ones allow people to say whether they will vote or not, and if they are undecided. So the really big remain leads we see in the phone polls could be very soft. I still think Leave need to way ahead at this point though, and they are not. I think Tory voters are generally torn over this issue, and you'll see very divergent votes in different types of Conservative seats. In really posh Conservative constituencies, like Kensington, Surrey SW, Hertsmere, St. Alban's, I'd expect to see big votes for Remain. In working class Conservative constituencies, like Stevenage, Basildon, Dartford, Hemel Hempstead, I'd expect to see big votes for Leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ab aeterno Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'd expect to see the south coast Tory seats go quite heavily for leave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'd expect to see the south coast Tory seats go quite heavily for leave as well. I think that's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 7 hours ago, SeanF said: In really posh Conservative constituencies, like Kensington, Surrey SW, Hertsmere, St. Alban's, I'd expect to see big votes for Remain. In working class Conservative constituencies, like Stevenage, Basildon, Dartford, Hemel Hempstead, I'd expect to see big votes for Leave. I always find it odd when I see St Albans referred to as 'posh'. I mean it's quite well off and there are posh schools there and stuff, but it's also home for example to Batchwood Hall, which used to be presumably quite a nice country mansion but is now the least posh place in the entire world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 In really posh Conservative constituencies, like Kensington, Surrey SW, Hertsmere, St. Alban's, I'd expect to see big votes for Remain. In working class Conservative constituencies, like Stevenage, Basildon, Dartford, Hemel Hempstead, I'd expect to see big votes for Leave. I always find it odd when I see St Albans referred to as 'posh'. I mean it's quite well off and there are posh schools there and stuff, but it's also home for example to Batchwood Hall, which used to be presumably quite a nice country mansion but is now the least posh place in the entire world. Overall, though, it's very well off. Income per head in 2013 was £42,400 p.a., very high for a constituency outside London, and even above the London average (£39,000). The average for the UK overall was £26,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 21 minutes ago, SeanF said: Overall, though, it's very well off. Income per head in 2013 was £42,400 p.a., very high for a constituency outside London, and even above the London average (£39,000). The average for the UK overall was £26,000. Oh, it's definitely a town on the nicer side of the equation overall. I'm not sure 'posh' is quite the right word, but it's definitely well-off for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 "Upper middle class ", maybe? The kind of people who shop at Waitrose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talleyrand Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Iain Duncan Smith: Prime Minister has a 'low opinion of the British people' The Tories seem to be the only ones actually putting the effort into the whole 'Brexit Civil War Drama' up your game Labour & SNP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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