NBA playoffs 2018: Will the Celtics be Raptored?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

35 minutes ago, IamMe90 said:

They have a chance, sure, but it has decreased significantly. I'm really fucking bummed. If Houston wins this series and the Celtics win theirs, I'll win $260 in a bracket pool. But mostly I'm bummed because I was looking forward to a really fucking epic game 7 in this series, and I fear Golden State might blow them out without Paul's second-half clutchness. 

You might get two. I suspect the Cleveland LeBron's will win tonight, and god knows what will happen if that series goes to a game seven. Likewise, I expect Golden State stomp Houston tomorrow. However, I think Houston has a puncher's chance at home. I doubt Paul will play, and if he does he'll be so limited that he might end up being a net negative. But if Harden can go off, Gordon can give them 20, other guys give them 10-15, play good defense and GS has a bad night, they can win. Sadly the defense part is where losing Paul really hurts. I expect Curry will have good games* with his absence.

 

*That is, of course, assuming we get "Healthy Curry." 

[Red Tiger]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

You might get two. I suspect the Cleveland LeBron's will win tonight, and god knows what will happen if that series goes to a game seven. Likewise, I expect Golden State stomp Houston tomorrow. However, I think Houston has a puncher's chance at home. I doubt Paul will play, and if he does he'll be so limited that he might end up being a net negative. But if Harden can go off, Gordon can give them 20, other guys give them 10-15, play good defense and GS has a bad night, they can win. Sadly the defense part is where losing Paul really hurts. I expect Curry will have good games* with his absence.

 

*That is, of course, assuming we get "Healthy Curry." 

Well considering that every game so far has been won by the home team...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Well considering that every game so far has been won by the home team...

Guess the series hasn't started then...

[Red Tiger]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Guess the series hasn't started then...

Or it's already decided, depending on how you look at it.

[KingintheNorth4]

As bad as the Cavs defense is, I still see them winning the games 6 and 7.

[Rhom]

If Love is out, this series is over tonight.

[KingintheNorth4]

The Cavs defense has actually been excellent tonight. The Celtics are taking a bunch of bad shots.

[IamMe90]

3 hours ago, Rhom said:

If Love is out, this series is over tonight.

First CP3, then KLove... this round has brought some brutal bad luck with it, shit sucks. If Love is out, I don’t see how Cleveland can possibly win with the way Boston has been playing at home. Much like I don’t see how Houston can win without CP3 with the way Harden has been playing (he is 0/20 of his last 3pt attempts; seriously. How is that statistically even possible for a 36% career 3pt shooter?). Dark times are ahead.

[briantw]

21 minutes ago, IamMe90 said:

If Love is out, I don’t see how Cleveland can possibly win with the way Boston has been playing at home. 

I mean, I'd be putting my money on LeBron in a game seven elimination game, especially against a team full of shook youngins. 

[Argonath Diver]

LeBron in a game 7 against a team of rookies? Come on.

Okay, that simplifies everything too much. Horford played an absolutely abysmal game, and he is their cornerstone, to me. He was really bad on both sides of the ball. I am a diehard Bulls guy, I want to hate this Celtics team, but I am massively in their corner right now. And Horford is one of my favorite guys in the league, he won't ever get his due. He needs to step the hell up, because as amazing as Tatum has been, game 7s are won by vets. And its going to be that son of a bitch Lebron.

(Go Celts go Celts)

[DireWolfSpirit]

I dont care if Love is out, the force is still too powerful in Jedi Le James. I fully expect him to turn in yet another monster game and advance from the Game 7.

[Red Tiger]

The game is in Boston, I think Boston wins.

[James Arryn]

6 hours ago, IamMe90 said:

First CP3, then KLove... this round has brought some brutal bad luck with it, shit sucks. 

Well, good luck for one team. AGAIN. They get this every year and they might be the team in history who least needs these gift wins. 

[Relic]

Mannnnn, LeBron shit all over the Celtics last night. Kinda hope the Cavs get blown out in game 7 and LeBron leaves to go to Houston next season. He deserves better team mates

[sperry]

18 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I will say that one thing about the NBA that is silly is that shimmy play was actually Curry playing very well.  He forced Paul it's a late shot clock, off balance 3 pointer.  Those go in sometimes, but as a defender whether it goes in is almost irrelevant.  If you force the other team to take bad shots, you're winning, even if the shot goes in.  Great players are able to screw up the match by making bad shots at a sustainable rate, and nobody does that better than Curry.  But it's funny that Paul is the one showboating there when, from a process (rather than results) perspective, Curry was the one who made the good play. 

That's just the nature of the game, but a lot of "highlight reel" plays are just great players making bad offense look good. 

I play ultimate frisbee (competitively) and there's a saying "behind every great grab is a really mediocre throw."  Because if you're playing offense the right way, you don't have to make challenging catches, even against good defense. 

Curry does that after he makes a tough shot, which is exactly what Paul did.

[IamMe90]

13 hours ago, briantw said:

I mean, I'd be putting my money on LeBron in a game seven elimination game, especially against a team full of shook youngins. 

What makes you think they’re “shook”? Were they “shook” after losing both games 3 and 4 before proceeding to win game 5 at home?

The fact of the matter is that both teams (other than LeBron) are displaying a massive performance disparity at home vs. on the road and doing so consistently. LeBron had a 42 point triple double and KLove had a 22 point game in game 2, and Cleveland still lost by 13 points. This game had three of Cleveland’s role players score double digits and a ridiculous 46 point game from LeBron, all at home, and they only won by 10.

This game is not in LeBron’s control singlehandedly. He needs his supporting cast to actually, y’know, provide some support, something they have not demonstrated the ability to do on the road in this series. If your argument basically boils down to “I won’t bet against LeBron in a game 7,” that’s fine and understandable, but not persuasive to me as an argument since it basically ignores context.

[briantw]

1 hour ago, IamMe90 said:

What makes you think they’re “shook”? Were they “shook” after losing both games 3 and 4 before proceeding to win game 5 at home?

The fact of the matter is that both teams (other than LeBron) are displaying a massive performance disparity at home vs. on the road and doing so consistently. LeBron had a 42 point triple double and KLove had a 22 point game in game 2, and Cleveland still lost by 13 points. This game had three of Cleveland’s role players score double digits and a ridiculous 46 point game from LeBron, all at home, and they only won by 10.

This game is not in LeBron’s control singlehandedly. He needs his supporting cast to actually, y’know, provide some support, something they have not demonstrated the ability to do on the road in this series. If your argument basically boils down to “I won’t bet against LeBron in a game 7,” that’s fine and understandable, but not persuasive to me as an argument since it basically ignores context.

I just don't really think context is important here.  You're either betting on the greatest elimination game player in NBA history, plus probably the best actual player of all time, or you're betting on a team full of rookie contract guys and an Al Horford who chokes every year in the playoffs against LeBron like it's his job.  To me, the safe bet is LeBron, even if he has to drag his team there kicking and screaming.

Now, if this were against a battle-tested team like the Warriors, my opinion would be different.  But this isn't the Warriors.  It's the Celtics minus their only battle-tested big game player.

[Rhom]

Damn.  Warriors and that third quarter they always own.   

Went from down 10 to up 8.  Wow.

[Proudfeet]

I only caught some glimpses of it, but the refereeing felt really one-sided.

[James Arryn]

7 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

I only caught some glimpses of it, but the refereeing felt really one-sided.

It is. Harden might as well stop driving; they’re letting the W’s do pretty much anything they want elbows-in. On that last play 2 players hit him a combined 3 times, no call/turnover as he crashes to the court.

edit: no wonder Kerr’s going full court press, he’s not stupid. If they’re letting you mug, exploit it.