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rotting sea cow

Stannis, the first lie and the false light

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Just few thoughts. We all know this prophesy from the HOTU

"Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . "

These are the three lies that Dany has to slay. The first one is Stannis. The second is Aegon. The third is most likely Euron.  I will focus on the first.

One could argued that Daenerys has already slain that lie by lighting the "fire for life" that gave birth to her dragons. She is the real Azor Ahai of our time, not Stannis as Melisandre insists.

However as a lie seems to me is very feeble and unimportant one and so far hardly plot relevant. Very few besides Mel believe on that. Not even Stannis seems to believe on that and it is certainly not the base of his actions and motivations.

It seems to be that lie should then become more important in the next books. Specially if we have this

"we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that . . . light without heat . . . an empty glamor . . . the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam. Daenerys is our hope." - Samwell IV, AFFC

So, it is really possible that Stannis would become a more important figure in TWOW but his actions would be of little use or even counterproductive in the fight against the Others, because he is not what he believe he is.

Thoughts?

 

 

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1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

However as a lie seems to me is very feeble and unimportant one and so far hardly plot relevant. Very few besides Mel believe on that. Not even Stannis seems to believe on that and it is certainly not the base of his actions and motivations.

Stannis is definitely a believer. He lets Mel burn people alive with no consequence to her, whereas he chopped off the top of Davos' fingers as his way of justice (the good doesn't wash out the bad). Someone like that would punish Mel if he weren't a believer. He definitely expresses his doubts - he's not as fanatical as Selyse - but there's enough "evidence" (Shadow Baby, leeches) to keep him going. I would say he uses religion to feed his ego/identity as the true king as opposed to being a true fanatic, but he does on some level believe.

This is and will continue to be relevant to the plot. I wouldn't say that this would make him counterproductive to the fight against the Others any more than he already is, or anyone else's actions (basically most of Westeros who are concerned about who gets the throne). 

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8 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Just few thoughts. We all know this prophesy from the HOTU

"Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire. . . . mother of dragons, slayer of lies . . "

These are the three lies that Dany has to slay. The first one is Stannis. The second is Aegon. The third is most likely Euron.  I will focus on the first.

One could argued that Daenerys has already slain that lie by lighting the "fire for life" that gave birth to her dragons. She is the real Azor Ahai of our time, not Stannis as Melisandre insists.

However as a lie seems to me is very feeble and unimportant one and so far hardly plot relevant. Very few besides Mel believe on that. Not even Stannis seems to believe on that and it is certainly not the base of his actions and motivations.

It seems to be that lie should then become more important in the next books. Specially if we have this

"we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that . . . light without heat . . . an empty glamor . . . the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam. Daenerys is our hope." - Samwell IV, AFFC

So, it is really possible that Stannis would become a more important figure in TWOW but his actions would be of little use or even counterproductive in the fight against the Others, because he is not what he believe he is.

Thoughts?

 

 

1.  Stannis is already important by virtue of his role in the war for the north.  It is a costly war and counterproductive to the unity needed.  

2.  To slay the lie means to expose the lie and reveal the truth.  The truth of Azor Ahai has already been revealed to the astute readers and will be revealed within the story in the future.  Daenerys Targaryen is Azor Ahai.  That is proof that Stannis is not.  

3.  The first lie is the claim to Azor Ahai.  The second lie is the claim to the Targaryen throne.  The third lie is the claim to a dragon heritage. 

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Lie is a weird thing to call an enemy. She's only needs to slay the lie, not the person. 

The other visons made a point to show that Westeros is divided and this is bad. I hold that Jon is the Stone Beast. The lie to be slain is that these other guys can win the fight against the Others (Aegon is foreshadowed to choose to go against the Others/wights but "freezes") instead of Dany. 

Basically, these aren't Dany's enemies exactly, they're just competing leaders dividing Westeros. Dany sees the vision just as that person is beginning that journey to leader - Stannis with the sword, Aegon being hailed, the stone beast taking flight as explained in the thread above. This line of thought would imply that Stannis gains strength as a leader and this could def happen: if Jon is MIA for a while and Stannis regains Winterfell, Stannis easily holds north in the meantime. He frees Mance and the wildlings follow strength and Stannis has without hesitation welcomed them. If he breaks from Mel and her tree burning self (Shireen) and commits to returning a Stark to Winterfell, he'll have full support of the North & Wildlings. 

This is why I don't see Euron being the stone beast (besides not having seen any solid evidence). Euron will be obeyed out of fear, but no one will follow him like willingly, out of belief, out of love, as savior-type like Aegon is forseed to be, like Stannis is set up to be in the North, and like how Jon is set up to be eventually. 

Edited by Lollygag

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10 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

One could argued that Daenerys has already slain that lie by lighting the "fire for life" that gave birth to her dragons. She is the real Azor Ahai of our time, not Stannis as Melisandre insists.

I doubt Dany is Azor Ahai reborn. When you have in-world characters proclaiming she is then I'm skeptical as I don't think we will get a reveal to that mystery with 2 books still to go. I still think Jon makes more sense if there is going to be an Azor Ahai figure.

 

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First lie is that Stannis is Azor Ahai, second is that fAegon is Rhaegar's son, and third is that Jon Snow is Ned Stark's bastard (the tower in the vision could be the Tower of Joy).

First vision is from recent events, next is from the future, and third one is from the distant past <- that's what it looks like, based on the other two trinities of visions (third vision in daughter of death is about Rhaegar's death, third in bride of fire (blue flower in a wall of ice) could be about the time after Robert's Rebellion, when Ned has brought Jon to be raised as his bastard at Winterfell).

Actually, the correct order of those (third) visions (the order in which they were written in the book) is - 1. daughter of death/1. Rhaegar's death, 2. slayer of lies/winged stone beast - 2. Jon's birth at the Tower of Joy, 3. bride of fire/blue flower - 3. little Jon growing up at Winterfell.

For example, three first visions, that in my opinion are about recent events - 1. daughter of death - Viserys screamed as the molten gold ran down his cheeks and filled his mouth/Viserys' death. 2. slayer of lies - Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow/Mel proclaiming Stannis Azor Ahai. 3. bride of fire - Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars/after wedding with Drogo.

Second visions, that are from the future: 1. daughter of death - A tall lord with copper skin and silver-gold hair stood beneath the banner of a fiery stallion, a burning city behind him/based on his looks, this guy is grown up Rhaego. 2. slayer of lies - A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd/people of 7K proclaiming fAegon their King. 3. bride of fire - A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly - this one, is the only one, about which I'm not sure what it is. But it is, most likely, a scene from the future.

If tall lord is Rhaego, and mummer's dragon is fAegon, then it seems, that the first vision of the future, is from a very distand future, while, based on the vision about mummer's dragon, it seems, that this vision of the future will happen fairly soon. So, based on the same logic, it looks like the last vision of the future (the one about smiling corpse) is the closest one to present time, it will happen very soon, prior Dany will depart from Essos or soon after it (so it could be dead Greyjoy). Maybe, Dany will encounter Euron and Aeron before she will meet fAegon the false King.

If my interpretation of the timeframe of those visions is correct, then the winged beast is a vision of the distant past, thus it is, most likely, about Jon, about his birth.

In this case, Dany will slay all three lies in one go - just by finding out Jon's real identity - Jon is Azor Ahai, Jon is rightful King of 7K, Jon is a shadow-dragon, i.e. secret Targaryen, and not Ned Stark's bastard, what people was made to believe about him.

Edited by Megorova

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On 2/22/2019 at 9:22 AM, rotting sea cow said:

<snip> It seems to be that lie should then become more important in the next books. Specially if we have this

"we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that . . . light without heat . . . an empty glamor . . . the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam. Daenerys is our hope." - Samwell IV, AFFC

So, it is really possible that Stannis would become a more important figure in TWOW but his actions would be of little use or even counterproductive in the fight against the Others, because he is not what he believe he is.

Thoughts?

I don't know, but maybe Aemon doesn't know everything. Lightbringer II has some genuinely strong imagery:

Quote

The sword glowed red and yellow and orange, alive with light. Jon had seen the show before... but not like this, never before life this. Lightbringer was the sun made steel. When Stannis raised the blade above his head, men had to turn their heads or cover their eyes. Horses shied, and one threw his rider. The blaze in the fire pit seemed to shrink before this storm of light, like a small dog cowering before a larger one. The Wall itself turned red and pink and orange as waves of color danced across the ice. Is this the power of king's blood?

Fire, but also sun. I haven't got examples handy, but the sun imagery in Westeros right now is cold. Certainly, Tywin is often and always described as icy cold, and he looks like a sun god in his armour (red, gold, sunburst decoration). And his children, the descendants of Lann, with the sunlight in their hair, are also typically cold. Even their preferred shade of red (crimson) is a cold red, with blue in it.

Drogo is a cold guy too. Dany's sun and stars has cold eyes, iirc.

More generally, we hear a lot about how cold it gets the higher you climb. Up is cold.

That's all I can think of, but there's enough to hazard a guess that Lightbringer is a genuine fire sword, because it authentically recreates the state of the sun. Whether it would be any use in a battle with winter is another question.

Edited by Springwatch
last para: cold - winter

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On 2/22/2019 at 4:22 AM, rotting sea cow said:

It seems to be that lie should then become more important in the next books. Specially if we have this

"we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that . . . light without heat . . . an empty glamor . . . the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam. Daenerys is our hope." - Samwell IV, AFFC

So, it is really possible that Stannis would become a more important figure in TWOW but his actions would be of little use or even counterproductive in the fight against the Others, because he is not what he believe he is.

Maester Aemon is not wrong about what he's saying about what Mel is up to and that she deceives herself. Mel is not very good at understanding the flames and we see her do exactly what Maester Aemon says she's doing.

This is one of the best examples of it.

"Some may." Could the skulls in her vision have signified this bridge? Somehow Melisandre did not think so. "If it comes, that attack will be no more than a diversion. I saw towers by the sea, submerged beneath a black and bloody tide. That is where the heaviest blow will fall."
"Eastwatch?"

Was it? Melisandre had seen Eastwatch-by-the-Sea with King Stannis. That was where His Grace left Queen Selyse and their daughter Shireen when he assembled his knights for the march on Castle Black. The towers in her fire had been different, but that was oft the way with visions. "Yes. Eastwatch, my lord." (Mel I, ADWD 31)

She 100% misleads Jon here. Instead of saying I'm not sure or I don't think it is or giving him a description of the towers, she tells him that yes, the attack is coming at Eastwatch.

Renly's murder was a direct result of one of her visions. She has left chaos in her wake.

We don't know why she has zeroed in on Stannis, what she saw in her flames that make her believe so fervently that he is AA. We don't know what it is that led her to him. Did the flames whisper Stannis's name in the same way they whispered Jon's name and she decided she had to find him?

I enjoy Mel's character very much, but she's the worst and she's not helping anyone with the way she interprets her flame or how she went a step too far when she gave him the glamoured sword to try and sell it.

Edited by Alexis-something-Rose

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46 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

We don't know why she has zeroed in on Stannis, what she saw in her flames that make her believe so fervently that he is AA. We don't know what it is that led her to him. Did the flames whisper Stannis's name in the same way they whispered Jon's name and she decided she had to find him?

I think, that in one of her visions she saw Dragonstone, as the origin of the Promised Prince. And because no one knows about Jon, officially Stannis is the Prince of Dragonstone. Though actually it is Jon, at least prior his crowning, he, as son of Crown Prince Rhaegar, is the PofD.

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1)  Dan will, i expect, deal with the fire priests as part of setting up Essos to run effectively in her absence.  This ....consultation..... betwixt her dragon fire and R'hollr fire will feature some things shaking out.  We'll reach an understanding of whose fire is false and why, and the firegod church will be nudged to make some changes in how they treat people.  Their fire will stop being so shady, yo.  Their fire will become attuned to Dan's if she's to accept the mantle of Azor and be their mascot for recruiting the rest of the continent over there into the new Unburnt Society.

The point of all that ^ was we should already have a primer on why Mel's fires are false (shady), and why it's harmful to Westeros to let Stan's lie continue.    I like to think Stan is figuring this out himself already and won't need killing to rid him of the lie.  By then he should be piecing more of the 7 kingdoms back together humpty dumpty style, even if someone else ultimately enjoys the unified rule he helped to forge.   That'll make it more tragic should he have to go.  Less tragic if he's giving us a living example of how shadowflame gets you into trouble.   More tragic if he's already come correct and booted Mel off his speed dial.   More challenging for Stormy if there's no lie left to kill anymore because of how long she tarried in the East, giving Stan time to cleanse himself.  Then it'd be a dirtier war for Danny to prosecute, more tinged with just selfishness.  Stan would be as much The Truth as she is, in terms of who should get the throne. 

But...in terms of who's Azor and is needed in the North, they may chat among themselves and decide Stormy needs to stay there and be magical while Stanny goes south and puts the kingdom in order in a more mundane way that's nonetheless just as needed.  (Quiet Boom, heard from far away.)

 

2)  I got all sexed up by that read about the burning tower being the fire in the LC tower and Jon being the stone beast, the 3rd lie, but..... Jon is the truth, not one of the lies.   So......

2a)  Simpler for 2019!   (My campaign slogan, guiding philosophy for posts, and mental state- - all combined into that one mantra!  Keeping this 'simple' reading of Stone Beast in mind.....)

2b)  Stone is the bastard name for the vale.  So 'great stone beast' is the Titan of Braavos emerging as a power pulling the strings of kingdoms, Petyr is a bass from that region so i tink it's him being referred to, and his army mobilizing would be him taking wing, with a bird lord like we find him associating with.  That'd be my pick for stone beast, since the Aegon lie deals with legitimacy of a regular human person too, and the fire sword king is about whether Stan's claim is good for anyone, so why not have Petyr's plan emerge as another 3rd claim from a trickster.     

Edited by The Mother of The Others
Learning to spell slowley over the coarse of a lifetime

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30 minutes ago, The Mother of The Others said:

2)  I got all sexed up by that read about the burning tower being the fire in the LC tower and Jon being the stone beast, the 3rd lie, but..... Jon is the truth, not one of the lies.   So......

Jon is sort of a lie when you think about it because he is not who he thinks he is. His current identity as Jon Snow is a lie that's been perpetuated for 17 years. The things that he believes to be the truth aren't the truth. When we start running down the list of lies that Jon believes, it's a freakin' mess!

I think there's a chance the people in Dany's entourage (Jorah, Barristan, Tyrion) will be able to put the pieces of the puzzle together if they can manage to get along for more than 5 minutes. 

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On 2/22/2019 at 5:51 AM, Mat92 said:

Stannis is definitely a believer. He lets Mel burn people alive with no consequence to her, whereas he chopped off the top of Davos' fingers as his way of justice (the good doesn't wash out the bad). Someone like that would punish Mel if he weren't a believer. He definitely expresses his doubts - he's not as fanatical as Selyse - but there's enough "evidence" (Shadow Baby, leeches) to keep him going. I would say he uses religion to feed his ego/identity as the true king as opposed to being a true fanatic, but he does on some level believe.

This is and will continue to be relevant to the plot. I wouldn't say that this would make him counterproductive to the fight against the Others any more than he already is, or anyone else's actions (basically most of Westeros who are concerned about who gets the throne). 

He's a believer.  He burned his own men for the crime of cannibalism.  

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On 2/22/2019 at 12:31 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

1.  Stannis is already important by virtue of his role in the war for the north.  It is a costly war and counterproductive to the unity needed.  

2.  To slay the lie means to expose the lie and reveal the truth.  The truth of Azor Ahai has already been revealed to the astute readers and will be revealed within the story in the future.  Daenerys Targaryen is Azor Ahai.  That is proof that Stannis is not.  

3.  The first lie is the claim to Azor Ahai.  The second lie is the claim to the Targaryen throne.  The third lie is the claim to a dragon heritage. 

Lie 1 = Stannis is Azor Ahai.  He is not.  

Lie 2 = Aegon/Young Griff is the heir to the Iron Throne.  He is not.

Lie 3 = Jon is a Targaryen.  He is not.  

Daenerys is all three:  Azor Ahai, heir to the Iron Throne, and true Targaryen.  She slays those lies one by one.

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Stannis will be the big bad of the story. When he sacrifices Shireen he will symbolically prove to have the heart of winter. When he dies his soul will animate an Ice Dragon, probably out of the ice of the wall. It will have an iron skeletal frame, and the Ice Dragon's eye or eyes will be blue crystal, and they will be Stannis's soul.

The three big bads Dany must slay are Aegon, Euron and Stannis. Aegon in the Dance (he's more the good guy in this one really), Euron who will second life Drogon and turn him into the stone beast - a sphinx basically, and finally Stannis whose second life will be the Ice Dragon.

GRRM has known this all to some degree forever. Here they are in AGOT.

Quote

Monsters stood in the grass beside the road; black iron dragons with jewels for eyes, roaring griffins, manticores with their barbed tails poised to strike, and other beasts she could not name.

The black iron dragon with jewels for eyes is the Stannis Ice Dragon. The roaring griffin is Jon Connington, the power behind the mummer's dragon Aegon. And the manticore (sphinx basically) with a barbed tail is Euron.

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17 hours ago, The Mother of The Others said:

and Jon being the stone beast, the 3rd lie, but..... Jon is the truth, not one of the lies.

Everyone in 7K think, that Jon is Ned's son, and that's a lie. Dany, slaying that last lie, probably, means, that she will find out truth about Jon's real origin. Also - just look at those three visions - King without shadow, mummer's dragon, winged beast - in those visions Dany saw the truth, not the lie, that is covering that truth; she saw them the way they realy are. For example, in her vision about Stannis, she didn't saw him as a hero, or a savior; in the vision with fAegon, she saw him for what he is - a puppet, used by mummers, and a false King; and in a vision with Jon, she saw him as a dragon, not as the Bastard of Winterfell.

Edited by Megorova

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On 2/24/2019 at 9:19 AM, Springwatch said:

That's all I can think of, but there's enough to hazard a guess that Lightbringer is a genuine fire sword, because it authentically recreates the state of the sun. Whether it would be any use in a battle with winter is another question.

 

Do we have any more information on Stannis's Lightbringer? is it just castle-forged steel with a powerful glamour on it or is there something special in that swords heritage?

 

even if it's not Lightbringer theres potential for it not to just be a run-of-the-mill sword Stannis picks up out of nowhere.  Melisandre may have given it to him.

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18 minutes ago, lrresistable said:

 

Do we have any more information on Stannis's Lightbringer? is it just castle-forged steel with a powerful glamour on it or is there something special in that swords heritage?

 

even if it's not Lightbringer theres potential for it not to just be a run-of-the-mill sword Stannis picks up out of nowhere.  Melisandre may have given it to him.

We don’t know for sure, but it seems to be a regular sword that Mel puts a glamour on. We first see it when the statues of the 7 are burning, but iirc there’s no mention of its origins at all. It’s just there, in the flames, and at one point Mel tells Stannis to take it. 

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On 2/24/2019 at 1:14 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Maester Aemon is not wrong about what he's saying about what Mel is up to and that she deceives herself. Mel is not very good at understanding the flames and we see her do exactly what Maester Aemon says she's doing. <snip>

I think you under-estimate Mel, but that wasn't the line I was arguing. I'll have another go:

On 2/22/2019 at 9:22 AM, rotting sea cow said:

"we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that . . . light without heat . . . an empty glamor . . . the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam. Daenerys is our hope." - Samwell IV, AFFC

Aemon is a believer in prophecy. So, he may be respected for his education and intellect, but when he dabbles in prophecy ('the false light can only lead us into darkness'), he is as unreliable as everybody else.

Prophecy is treacherous, and magic is a sword without a hilt - these bits of wisdom come from multiple sources and are probably the nearest thing to certain truth we'll see in the books. Truth for Aemon as much as for Melisandre. So we shouldn't trust his personal spin on prophecy. Nor put much faith in the Jade Compendium and its tales of Azhor Ahai. (Although I'm expecting more of a twist than a flat error....)

In his way, Aemon is in the grip of binary thinking, just like Mel. He sees a battle between good and evil - shining hero against the Long Night. It might not be that way. Darkness might not be all bad, monsters might not be all bad, false things might not be all bad. Lightbringer as sunlight made steel sounds like a pretty useful piece of kit.

38 minutes ago, lrresistable said:

Do we have any more information on Stannis's Lightbringer? is it just castle-forged steel with a powerful glamour on it or is there something special in that swords heritage?

It would be interesting to know!

Just one thing. We see from Mel's thoughts that she makes a huge effort to make her magic appear easy and effortless, when in reality it can be incredibly painful and exhausting.  Lightbringer doesn't fall into this pattern. The magic works all the time, even if Stannis is far away on a distant battlefield. Even when she's asleep, presumably. It doesn't cost her anything in effort or concentration, even when Lightbringer blazes so bright it lights up the Wall. If it's a glamor, it's an exceptionally good one.

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Have we seen Lightbringer in action (as in, alight, burning, shining, etc) since Stannis left CB? I don’t remember... also, the best Lightbringer impersonation so far was when Mel put a show for the captive FF at CB. (ETA: meaning she was there as MoC. 

Edited by kissdbyfire

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10 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Have we seen Lightbringer in action (as in, alight, burning, shining, etc) since Stannis left CB? I don’t remember... also, the best Lightbringer impersonation so far was when Mel put a show for the captive FF at CB. (ETA: meaning she was there as MoC. 

I don't think so. But Mel wasn't at the Battle of the Blackwater either. Stannis said the sword glimmered prettily.

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