UK politics - The Yellowhammer Made The Robin Weep

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Ser Reptitious said:

...because they best embody what a ‘reluctant remainer’ is looking for? 

I’ve gone from a reluctant remainer , thinking we could reform from within, to pro leave , to tired and wanting to give up and just forget it all, to wanting to leave again. It’s been a roller coaster.

but yes I don’t believe the EU is a good fit for us , I don’t think the EU is going in any other direction except further integration, and long term we’d be much better outside of it. So guess I have to vote Tory despite their awfulness.

[Liffguard]

I'll be voting for an independent candidate in my constituency. This is largely a tactical vote. Based on the past two election results, she has by far the best odds of unseating the Tory incumbent (Labour were a very distant third in 2017, and the less said about the Lib Dems the better). That said, while my reasons are primarily tactical, she's also close enough to my own political opinions that I won't have to feel guilty about my vote. She's broadly left-of-centre, in favour of more public services spending, environmental protections, and a confirmatory referendum.

[Werthead]

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David isn't interested, I believe.  There have been overtures, and he has now been out of politics for a while.  But agree that he would make the best leader of the Labour party in a post-Corbyn world. 

It's unlikely that David would stand a chance now, as the Blairite wing of the party has been pretty thoroughly shot down. Ed actually would stand a much better shot, but our system seems to only allow one run at the top job and then you're out, which has scuppered a number of promising candidates. William Hague was a relatively decent Tory (by their normal standards) and was unfortunate to be leader during a period when the party was utterly unelectable. All the people refusing to vote for Ed because they considered him "too far left" (!) are probably wishing they'd chosen otherwise now.

 

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The Police are very stretched for resources although there seems to be a realisation that this has had a dramatic effect on crime and they are on a huge recruitment drive, wether this makes an impact or not I’m not sure, I guess we will have to wait and look at the numbers a year or two down the line.

 

I'm not sure of the logic of this. Rory Stewart is one of the people who, consistently and repeatedly, voted for a legislative programme that included cutting police numbers in the UK by tens of thousands, creating the current law and order crisis. I'm not remotely sure why anyone thinking, "Hey, let's vote for the guy who helped cause this crisis," is a good idea.

I think Stewart was, by far, the best leadership candidate, and he's clearly articulate and far smarter than Gove and Johnson combined, but he still voted for the austerity programme that is one of the main reasons Britain is in the state it is. He clearly has some sense of integrity, leading to him taking the stand he did and quitting the party, and in his time in the prisons brief he took a strong ethical stance on improving standards, but it's important not to forget his support for the policies that led to food banks and Brexit in the first place.

 

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When you think of all the idiotic reasons people voted for leave (the ones who've admitted this) how could anyone now think, 'ooh might vote for the Brexit party in a GE even though I voted remain'?

 

I know one person who did this in the EU elections, as he took the view that he honourably lost the referendum and it would be "unsporting" to try to scupper Brexit now and he felt it was important to vote for a position he did not believe in.

 

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 Also the Tories have made a LOT of their previous voters pretty angry, so those seats may not be as safe as they think. 

 

The definition of a "safe seat" has changed a lot. Apparently the number of key marginals has doubled since 2015, which is one of the reasons the polls are all over the place.

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Does anyone think a Lib Dem- Lab pact is possible or likely?

 

They've managed to piss one another off, with the LibDems refusing to consider Corbyn as interim PM and Labour reminding everyone at every possible opportunity of Swinson's rather overly-enthusiastic support for Tory austerity policies, to the point where she voted in favour of more of them than some Tory cabinet ministers (the "she voted for more of them than Boris" claim is also true, but that's because he wasn't an MP until 2015, after the most hardcore austerity measures had been voted through, so it's a bit insipid as a headline). 

Them voting in the same direction in Parliament - a sort of no-confidence but supply - is possible, but a formal pact is unlikely.

[Which Tyler]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Very unlikely. This LibDems-Greens-PlaidCymru pact is above all forged around Brexit (anti-Brexit tbp). Labour has decided it wants to run a GE instead of Referendum, and voters will more likely treat it as a proxy ref. And Labour's Brexit position is yeah, whatever. So why would the remain parties pact with that? I can see them not fielding candidates against Cooper or Benn, who have pretty solid bona fide Remain cred. But why would they stand down against dimwit and heiress apparent Long-Bailey, John Mann, or Lisa Nandy, or Corbyn himself for that matter? I am not mentioning that old hag Hoey, as she won't run again as Labour MP - maybe as a Tory or Brexit candidate. However, I can see them standing down for Hammond or Grieve, to boost their chances of keeping their seat.

The voice of a prophet

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=136567907705613&id=108266727202398

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“A leading Tory Brexit rebel has struck a secret deal with the Liberal Democrats in what is the first significant move towards the formation of a “remain alliance” at the general election.

“The Liberal Democrats have agreed to stand aside to help former Conservative Dominic Grieve save his Beaconsfield seat, paving the way for a Brexit showdown at the ballot box.

“The former attorney-general, a leading light in the cross-party “rebel alliance”, is planning to stand as an independent after being kicked out of the party by Boris Johnson for backing plans to seize control of the Commons to block no-deal.”

 

[Chaircat Meow]

1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

The voice of a prophet

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=136567907705613&id=108266727202398

 

This is good but looks like it really will not be enough. With polls this terrible Brexit is going to happen, good and hard if necessary, after the next election. Cummings may have lost the battle to determine the time of the election, and when, in relation to Brexit, it happens but the odds must be he will win the election itself when it comes. 

Very depressing

Opinium poll for Observer,

Cons back to 15-pt lead:

Con 38% +2

Lab 23% -1

Lib Dem 15% -5

Brexit 12% +1

Green 4% +2

2,006 UK adults 3-4 Oct, change since last week

[Which Tyler]

6 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

This is good but looks like it really will not be enough. With polls this terrible Brexit is going to happen, good and hard if necessary, after the next election. Cummings may have lost the battle to determine the time of the election, and when, in relation to Brexit, it happens but the odds must be he will win the election itself when it comes. 

Very depressing

Opinium poll for Observer,

Cons back to 15-pt lead:

Con 38% +2

Lab 23% -1

Lib Dem 15% -5

Brexit 12% +1

Green 4% +2

2,006 UK adults 3-4 Oct, change since last week

Which is why both Conservatives and Corbyn want a GE rather than a referendum (for which remain consistently polls as favourite).

I still can't work out quite how the conservatives have succeeded with their messaging that more democracy is anti-democratic. It's complete doublethink and directly self-contradictory; and it's been absolutely lapped up as if it's Olympian Mana and a self-evident truth.

 

We can change our mind 3 times about our MP. Conservatives can change their minds 3 times about their party leader. Nobody can possibly change their minds about a single policy that can never be sorted in a GE however, it's just not possible.

[Heartofice]

10 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

This is good but looks like it really will not be enough. With polls this terrible Brexit is going to happen, good and hard if necessary, after the next election. Cummings may have lost the battle to determine the time of the election, and when, in relation to Brexit, it happens but the odds must be he will win the election itself when it comes. 

Very depressing

Opinium poll for Observer,

Cons back to 15-pt lead:

Con 38% +2

Lab 23% -1

Lib Dem 15% -5

Brexit 12% +1

Green 4% +2

2,006 UK adults 3-4 Oct, change since last week

What’s interesting is that polls also indicate a consistent swing towards remain as well, so the picture is pretty unclear.

Having said that, should we not leave on Halloween, and we almost certainly won’t, it will be a big PR win for the leave campaign , the story being how Brexit is being thwarted.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

7 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Which is why both Conservatives and Corbyn want a GE rather than a referendum (for which remain consistently polls as favourite).

I still can't work out quite how the conservatives have succeeded with their messaging that more democracy is anti-democratic. It's complete doublethink and directly self-contradictory; and it's been absolutely lapped up as if it's Olympian Mana and a self-evident truth.

 

We can change our mind 3 times about our MP. Conservatives can change their minds 3 times about their party leader. Nobody can possibly change their minds about a single policy that can never be sorted in a GE however, it's just not possible.

Helps when Murdoch and co put the power of their propaganda machinery behind it. 

Anyway, regarding the polls. I wouldn't pay too much attention to them now. Johnson still has the public humiliation of getting his proposals dismissed as bare nonsense and him applying for an extension to look forward to. So one should hope the new car smell will be starting to wear off some time next month.

[Heartofice]

9 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Anyway, regarding the polls. I wouldn't pay too much attention to them now. Johnson still has the public humiliation of getting his proposals dismissed as bare nonsense and him applying for an extension to look forward to. So one should hope the new car smell will be starting to wear off some time next month.

You honestly think that will hurt Johnson’s popularity?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Yes. Rather dead in a ditch, do or die, final offer  were rather big words coming out of his mouth. Barclay is already climbing down from the final offer bit. Johnson is campaigning against reality, and reality has - for some reason - the habit of prevailing. Just a quick reminder how May's Premiership started. This Lady is not for turning.  We all know how this ended. Admittedly, May had more time to get grinded down, but give him 1-2 summits and he will get there.

[williamjm]

5 hours ago, Heartofice said:

What’s interesting is that polls also indicate a consistent swing towards remain as well, so the picture is pretty unclear.

In most of the recent polls if you add up Labour and the Remain parties then they do usually have a majority (although not in the one Chaircat posted where Leave parties have 51%).

Having said that, should we not leave on Halloween, and we almost certainly won’t, it will be a big PR win for the leave campaign , the story being how Brexit is being thwarted.

I think one of the big questions might be whether leave supporters stick with Boris or decide he can't deliver on his promises and back Farage instead.

[Heartofice]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Yes. Rather dead in a ditch, do or die, final offer  were rather big words coming out of his mouth. Barclay is already climbing down from the final offer bit. Johnson is campaigning against reality, and reality has - for some reason - the habit of prevailing. Just a quick reminder how May's Premiership started. This Lady is not for turning.  We all know how this ended. Admittedly, May had more time to get grinded down, but give him 1-2 summits and he will get there.

Think you are misreading the mood quite a bit. The difference between Johnson and May is that Johnson has made a lot of moves that show he's serious about Brexit and No-Deal. Much of his behaviour that has caused enormous outrage, went over rather well with some people because it shows he genuinely is trying to make Brexit happen, against a parliament that is determined to stop it. Compare that to May, who said a lot of things but came back with an awful deal that could barely be considered Brexit by many and gave off the air of someone who wasn't really that enthusiastic about leaving at all.
 

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

I think one of the big questions might be whether leave supporters stick with Boris or decide he can't deliver on his promises and back Farage instead.

There are certainly question marks about this. The Tories and the Brexit party so far have been attempting to distance themselves from each other and that could potentially split the vote, but so far the mood towards Boris' deal vs Mays deal has been positive amongst Brexit voters and I suspect that were we to not leave it would be an easy spin for Boris

[Which Tyler]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/john-bercow-proposed-as-prime-minister-of-national-unity-government-k3gtj29fw?

 

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"John Bercow has been proposed for the role of Britain’s caretaker prime minister, as opposition parties plot to sidestep Jeremy Corbyn and form a “government of national unity” composed entirely of prominent backbenchers.

...

One source familiar with the idea said: “If none of the opposition party leaders are given roles in the cabinet, then it should allay Corbyn’s fears that his authority will drain away if he does not become caretaker prime minister.”

The proposal is for the cabinet to be made up entirely of “clean skins” — MPs unrestricted by party loyalty — who can work together in the “national interest” rather than “narrow partisan interests”, according to another source.

“MPs who are standing down will also be able to rise above their own self-interest because they will not be seeking re-election, meaning they will be able to put the country before their own parties,” the source added.

...

One senior Tory rebel said: “To be frank, if Corbyn hadn’t insisted on leading a government of national unity, we’d probably already have one by now."

 

[Ser Hedge]

 

This is not from a Brexiteer type, but from a mainstream economic journalist, FT's Wolfgang Münchau. Well worth a quick read.

 

 

The EU should think twice before rejecting Boris Johnson’s proposal

Negotiators could extend the Brexit deadline for a final time to work on technical details

The member states of the EU have a common negotiating position on Brexit, but they have different ulterior motives. 

There is one group, led by Germany, whose priority is to avoid a no-deal Brexit in order to minimise disruption to industrial supply chains. Another group, led by France, seeks to stop the UK from exploiting the opportunities for regulatory arbitrage. The French fear that a Singapore on Thames might undercut EU standards on social policy and the environment. Then there is a third group that wants the UK to reverse Brexit altogether, as a symbol of the fightback against the rising global tide of populism.

What all three have in common is a lack of interest in agreeing to engage with UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s proposalsfor the withdrawal deal. They are reassured that the Brexit extension bill passed by the House of Commons has removed the threat of an immediate no-deal Brexit. Legal documents submitted to a Scottish court state that Mr Johnson intends to comply with the requirements of the Benn Act and seek a Brexit delay if he cannot secure a deal.

But even if the deadline is extended once more, the EU should think twice before rejecting the latest UK plan. It is trivially true that an extension buys time, avoids disruption on the day, and maybe even opens up a theoretical path towards a Brexit reversal. But rejection would still be a short-sighted strategy. If the process is allowed to stray past the current October 31 deadline, the EU will have to live with the consequences of rejecting the deal.

The big idea behind the British government’s most recent proposals is to keep Northern Ireland inside the EU’s single market for industrial goods and agrifoods, but outside the EU’s customs union. That sounds complicated, but it is a reasonable starting point: it is easier to find technical solutions for customs procedures than single market rules. What is unreasonable is to suggest a formal veto for Stormont, the Northern Ireland assembly — which has not sat since 2017 when the power-sharing arrangement between the Democratic Unionist party and Sinn Féin collapsed. 

But by rejecting the whole package, the EU would reveal that it can only offer a limited range of future relationships: Theresa May’s old deal or full membership of the single market and the customs union. 

Since all Brexit deals proposed by a UK government would have been rejected, no-deal would then be the one Brexit option that is left. The Conservative party would campaign for it at the next general election. Also consider that, without a deal, it would be hard to know what question to put on a ballot paper in any future second referendum.

I do not believe that EU leaders have thought this through. There are few people who spend their days thinking strategically on the EU’s behalf. National leaders act in their country’s self-interest, as they did during the eurozone crisis. The only European institution accustomed to acting strategically for the entire area is the European Central Bank.

So what would constitute an intelligent strategy for the EU as a whole? Brexit has weakened the EU, but not fatally. My first priority now would be to prevent a large economic shock. The volume of trade between the EU and the UK was £634bn in 2018. The total trade volume between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic was £5.4bn. This is a ratio of more than 100 to one. I understand why the rest of the EU places a higher value on the interests of Ireland than the UK. I do not understand why they place so little value on their own interests. 

There is a lot of muddled thinking around. The obsession with avoiding blame is alarming. When you ask why Dublin prefers a no-deal Brexit to a compromise on the backstop, you keep getting the same answer. Ireland’s prime minister Leo Varadkar can blame the UK for the fallout from no deal, but the Irish would blame him personally if he compromised. In Brussels, I keep hearing that the EU does not want the blame for a no-deal Brexit. So it seems that the biggest problem with a no-deal Brexit is not the thing itself but who is held responsible. This blame game might end up increasing the risk of no deal. 

France and Germany have different ulterior motives, but a no-deal Brexit serves neither of them. Strategically, it would be better for the EU to accept the parameters of Mr Johnson’s proposal, minus the nonsensical veto rights for Stormont. The EU should extend the deadline for a final time to complete the negotiations in all its technical details and allow time for ratification. The UK should undertake to abide by common standards on social protections and environmental standards.

There is a deal to be done — and a gamble to be lost.

[Ser Hedge]

Sorry, link to above is (paywall):

https://www.ft.com/content/21c6c7f2-e6c2-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59

[Gaston de Foix]

19 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Sorry, link to above is (paywall):

https://www.ft.com/content/21c6c7f2-e6c2-11e9-b112-9624ec9edc59

A good article. A lot of wisdom in it. The EU's incentives to reach a deal are separate from the domestic political considerations as to whether the British people should be given the opportunity to approve the deal, or think again. 

[The Anti-Targ]

14 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

“MPs who are standing down will also be able to rise above their own self-interest because they will not be seeking re-election, meaning they will be able to put the country before their own parties,” the source added. 

I do love the implication of this statement: you can only rely on an MP to act on principle and for the good of the country if his/her electoral life isn't at stake.

 

13 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Strategically, it would be better for the EU to accept the parameters of Mr Johnson’s proposal, minus the nonsensical veto rights for Stormont. The EU should extend the deadline for a final time to complete the negotiations in all its technical details and allow time for ratification. The UK should undertake to abide by common standards on social protections and environmental standards.

That's the crux of the matter though, isn't it? Does Boris and co consider the Stormont veto and maintaining common standards on social and environmental protections as up for negotiation? If those are the only really bad parts of the Johnson deal then the EU should definitely go back with a counter offer, and put the ball back in the UK's court. Is the govt obliged to put a counter-proposal to parliament, or do they get to do a counter-counter-proposal?

[Which Tyler]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/why-uk-cannot-see-brexit-utterly-utterly-stupid

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Why the UK cannot see that Brexit is utterly, utterly stupid

The British press helped condone austerity. It’s now blinding us to the stupidity of Brexit. 

If you talk to almost anyone overseas, except those at the right-wing extreme (like Trump) or part of a tiny minority of the left, their reaction to Brexit is similar that of the former prime minister of Finland. What the UK is doing is utterly, utterly stupid. An act of self harm with no point, no upside. Sometimes outside opinion is based on incomplete or biased information and should be discounted, but on Brexit it is spot on. So why are so many people in the UK unable to see what outsiders can see quite clearly?

The days when Leavers talked about the sunlit uplands are over. Liam Fox has not even managed to replicate the scores of trade deals the UK will lose when we leave the EU. As for independence, Leavers cannot name any laws imposed on the UK by the EU that they do not like. Since the referendum, even public attitudes to immigration have become much more favourable.

Article Continues

 

[Heartofice]

Well that article was a waste of my time reading 

[Maltaran]

Rumours on Twitter that there is a candidate to lead a GNU that Corbyn could support - Ed Miliband.