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US Politics: Vaguely above average Tuesday


Kalbear

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12 minutes ago, Darzin said:

As has been mentioned before no other campaign has something like Chapo trap house, nor have they endorsed it by sending surrogates to go on the way Bernie has. Just go the the Chapo subbreddit and read all their "jokes" about murdering people they don't like. This kind wink wink violence is not acceptable when the right does it and I don't want it taking root on the left.  

I'm a member of the subreddit, and I don't see jokes about murdering people. The subreddit is actually pretty reasonable compared to the podcast. I wrote on there yesterday I was going to vote for Biden if he won, and while some argued with me, I got a ton of upvotes. I think your fear mongering in the face of quantifiable stats that the Bernie Bro myth is definitely a myth, you demonstrate a lack of rationality. In fact, when you do this, you will argue the pragmatic choice to angry Sanders' voters, but they will not view you as trustworthy when you twist over backwards to manipulate facts to make them look like monsters. You won. Quit making stuff up. Bernie's done forever. You don't need to do mental gymnastics anymore. Quit believing all the fluff the NYTs feeds you.

https://www.salon.com/2020/03/09/there-is-hard-data-that-shows-bernie-bros-are-a-myth/

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16 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

Nice speech by Biden. We'll see what Sanders does. With proportional voting its difficult to see any way he catches up. Biden should give Sanders all of the time he needs to make the right call.

To run as an independent? That, to many, would be the right call. Or do you mean the call you think is right? Bernie has more to gain by staying in and securing some guarantees from Dems if he doesn't fight to the bitter end.

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5 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

To run as an independent? That, to many, would be the right call. Or do you mean the call you think is right? Bernie has more to gain by staying in and securing some guarantees from Dems if he doesn't fight to the bitter end.

It would take a very convoluted argument to make the case that running as a third party candidate would be the "right" thing to do.  Is is hard for me to think of anything he could do to help Trump more. 

But then, I think you know that, so I'm not sure why you're bringing it up.

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

It would take a very convoluted argument to make the case that running as a third party candidate would be the "right" thing to do.  Is is hard for me to think of anything he could do to help Trump more. 

But then, I think you know that, so I'm not sure why you're bringing it up.

Thank you. You took the words right out of my mouth.

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

It would take a very convoluted argument to make the case that running as a third party candidate would be the "right" thing to do.  Is is hard for me to think of anything he could do to help Trump more. 

But then, I think you know that, so I'm not sure why you're bringing it up.

Because it may not be right to you, but some people would feel it's their only shot. It's as disingenuous to say he should run third party as it is to say the "right" thing to do is for him to drop out now.

The arguments made by the poster I am responding to are overly cynical and simple. So, I am bringing up to create a similar sense of mystification in him/her as I feel when reading his/her points. Seems it worked.

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Of maybe there is right and there is wrong. Trump is wrong. Supporting Trump is wrong. Doing things that help Trump is wrong. Opposing Trump Is right. Doing things keep Trump from being reelected is right.

Is Sanders right or wrong we shall see. I'll leave the mystic stuff the Californians.

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6 minutes ago, Freshwater Spartan said:

Of maybe there is right and there is wrong. Trump is wrong. Supporting Trump is wrong. Doing things that help Trump is wrong. Opposing Trump Is right. Doing things keep Trump from being reelected is right.

Is Sanders right or wrong we shall see. I'll leave the mystic stuff the Californians.

What does this even mean? Trump has nothing to do with it. You said the right thing was for Bernie to call it now. That's unreasonable. He has absolutely nothing to lose (and a slim, slim chance to win) by going forward. At worst, he's no worse off than right now, but likely, he might get some concessions as a trade off for his peaceful exist. How much is all the time Sanders needs to make "the right call?" Next month? June? 

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36 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Also watching Biden speak tonight, he is clearly trying to reach out to bring progressives on board, while focusing on the general election.  He has a lot of work to do on bringing the Sanders team back in the tent, but I'm sure Trump will give him a lot of help in the next six months.

The other notable thing is Biden was speaking very slowly and very calmly.  He is clearly trying to project calm and normalcy in a panicky time.  It's an interesting strategy, it runs the risk of being boring or sleepy, but I actually thought it kinda worked (I'm grading in a curve here).  It is a great contrast to Trump's anger and divisiveness.

I'm honestly, impressed. And I say this as someone that voted Sanders this time and thought Biden the third worst choice after Tulsi Gabbard and Bloomberg. Not sure if it's name recognition, or Obama magic dust, or just people craving normalcy, but it does seem like Biden does not have to speak eloquently or even spend money in states to win. Hopefully it is not just in the primaries.

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26 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

I'm a member of the subreddit, and I don't see jokes about murdering people. The subreddit is actually pretty reasonable compared to the podcast. I wrote on there yesterday I was going to vote for Biden if he won, and while some argued with me, I got a ton of upvotes. I think your fear mongering in the face of quantifiable stats that the Bernie Bro myth is definitely a myth, you demonstrate a lack of rationality. In fact, when you do this, you will argue the pragmatic choice to angry Sanders' voters, but they will not view you as trustworthy when you twist over backwards to manipulate facts to make them look like monsters. You won. Quit making stuff up. Bernie's done forever. You don't need to do mental gymnastics anymore. Quit believing all the fluff the NYTs feeds you.

https://www.salon.com/2020/03/09/there-is-hard-data-that-shows-bernie-bros-are-a-myth/

I know Simon doesnt read my posts, but to the rest of yall - just fyi this was precisely the data I was talking about, where it is 4 to 5 times more likely to encounter a negative tweet from a Sanders supporter than it is anyone else, including Trump. It's a neat thing that both says the BernieBro thing is overblown AND it is measurable and explains perception well.

Anyway, Washington results are starting to come in and Biden and Sanders are effectively tied. Which is not good news for Sanders, as these are the early votes. Later votes are expected to break for Biden. 

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1 hour ago, Simon Steele said:

To run as an independent? That, to many, would be the right call. Or do you mean the call you think is right? Bernie has more to gain by staying in and securing some guarantees from Dems if he doesn't fight to the bitter end.

Why would you even suggest this? Haven't we been over this several times already, that a candidate for the nomination is prevented from running as an independent because of various 'sour grapes' laws in states? Isn't that what Kalbear said weeks ago?

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14 minutes ago, Muaddibs_Tapeworm said:

This really must have been a hard one for Michigan, eh? War profiteering on the one side and mean tweets on the other. What a choice, what a choice...

The dirtbag left is sounding more and more like the alt right every day.

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21 minutes ago, Myshkin said:

The dirtbag left is sounding more and more like the alt right every day.

I agree, I don't think that War Profitieering is the right charge to lay at Biden's feet when there are more accurate parts of his record to attack. War mongering? Sure. Betrayer of the middle class? Absolutely. Obama's diversity hire to make white folks less nervous about a black dude in charge? That's a big fat affirmative. Defending Joe Biden is ignoring his atrocious record on numerous things that have hurt minorities and the working class in his time in public service. Sure, we'll vote him, but don't expect us to be surprised when he gets crushed like Kerry.

Also that is a bullshit line, the Dirtbag left is nothing like the Alt Right. Some of them may put class before identity, and I do kind of disagree with them there, but for the most part they are trying to achieve an America where everyone can know that they aren't going to be destroyed by medical debt, where everyone is valued and accepted, where we stand in solidarity with our fellow man and support one another. Are they at times crass? Yeah. Do they sometime take it too far? Yeah. but I have also see a kindness and caring that you do not see in folks in the alt right. Come talk to me when a large group get together to show off their racism and attack minorities.

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29 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

I agree, I don't think that War Profitieering is the right charge to lay at Biden's feet when there are more accurate parts of his record to attack. War mongering? Sure. Betrayer of the middle class? Absolutely. Obama's diversity hire to make white folks less nervous about a black dude in charge? That's a big fat affirmative. Defending Joe Biden is ignoring his atrocious record on numerous things that have hurt minorities and the working class in his time in public service. Sure, we'll vote him, but don't expect us to be surprised when he gets crushed like Kerry.

Also that is a bullshit line, the Dirtbag left is nothing like the Alt Right. Some of them may put class before identity, and I do kind of disagree with them there, but for the most part they are trying to achieve an America where everyone can know that they aren't going to be destroyed by medical debt, where everyone is valued and accepted, where we stand in solidarity with our fellow man and support one another. Are they at times crass? Yeah. Do they sometime take it too far? Yeah. but I have also see a kindness and caring that you do not see in folks in the alt right. Come talk to me when a large group get together to show off their racism and attack minorities.

Yeah, I was more talking about their propensity to downplay abuse and harassment as “mean tweets”. Won’t be long before they’re telling us snowflakes to stop getting so triggered. And if they keep going in the direction they’re going the banding together to show off their racism is a lot closer than you might think. There are more than enough loud, abusive shitheads on the right; we shouldn’t be accepting of them on left.

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7 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

Harvard did some research that analyzed over a million tweets and said that there is no quantitative data showing Bernie supporters are worse than any other candidate's supporters. Why it may appear so, they mentioned, is because he has by far the biggest representation on social media. So if 2 percent of every candidate's supporters are toxic, Bernie's seem to dwarf the rest because the general population is so much bigger. I mean compare 2 percent to say 200,000 Bernie followers (a low estimate) compared to something like 2 percent of Klobuchar's ten followers.

This is a helpful reframing of the issue, but not a refutation of it. The proportionate numbers of such supporters are relevant, of course, but so are the absolute numbers. And if the absolute number of Sanders supporters behaving this way is higher than for other candidates, regardless of whether that's proportional to the larger numbers of followers active on social media or not, it's definitely a problem and definitely an issue for the Sanders campaign to address. 

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Well, establishment figures better figure out how they're going to unfuck how they've fucked up their relationship with Bernie supporters. Calling for the primary to be shut down and debates called off ain't fucking it.

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9 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

Harvard did some research that analyzed over a million tweets and said that there is no quantitative data showing Bernie supporters are worse than any other candidate's supporters. Why it may appear so, they mentioned, is because he has by far the biggest representation on social media. So if 2 percent of every candidate's supporters are toxic, Bernie's seem to dwarf the rest because the general population is so much bigger. I mean compare 2 percent to say 200,000 Bernie followers (a low estimate) compared to something like 2 percent of Klobuchar's ten followers.

I did some research recently and Bernie supporters are far more likely to attempt to assassinate members of Congress over the last three years.

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I love Bernie and all he stands for, but Biden is the candidate. 

The important thing, for the sake of the world, is getting Trump out of the white house. Judging by the primary results, Biden has the best chance of doing that.

It does make me wonder though. For years I believed that Bernie's popularity vs Hillary in the Rust Belt was nothing to do with misogyny, but rather because people preferred his policies and what he stood for? But with Biden getting so many votes from people who refused to vote for Hillary, despite being very similar to her in terms of policy, maybe it has nothing to do with policy, but rather just that they prefer voting for a white guy after all?

I guess it took me this long to realise that most US voters don't care at all about policy, and it's all about culture.

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What do people think about Andrew Yang as a potential VP pick?

Given the hostility between the Dem establishment and the progressive Sanders/AOC wing of the party, Yang might be a more palatable progressive-friendly choice for Biden to make.  

I guess it ultimately depends on whether they feel like they’ll need to shore up support from  the liberal+youth vote for the general.  

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9 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

Young Bernie supporters are not voting for Biden. You're going to have to hope for the mythical mass of never Trumpers.

LOL, oh noes!!!  You mean those magical young Bernie supporters that were supposed to propel him to victory - but in actuality didn't even turnout for him?  If you're going to have a weakness in your coalition, young voters is about the best weakness to have due to their lack of reliability.  It's like one step up from saying Biden's weak with convicted felons.  Where is Biden strong?  In exactly the areas the Dem nominee needs to improve upon from 2016 in order to win:  African-Americans and suburban, and particularly suburban women, voters.  Will that translate into the general?  Not clear yet, but it's a good sign.  I'd be nice for him to shore up the Hispanic vote in order to lock down the SW, but Colorado & Nevada are trending pretty blue already.

Anyway, is anyone else tired of this Bernie Bros argument?  Sanders lost.  Again.  His presidential ambitions are officially over.  If his supporters want to lash out by childishly attack Biden, sure, correct the record there.  But if they wanna whine by arguing their supporters aren't as mean - or there aren't as many supporters who are mean - as other people are saying?  Uh, k, whatever.

As for when Sanders should drop out, I don't think it's really worth speculating about.  This is Bernie Sanders we're talking about.  He's going to stay in as long as possible - which with his fundraising ability means until the last contest - because he's still a self-centered malcontent.  It really shouldn't matter as long as he stays civil.

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