Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Tywin et al.

COVID-19 #13 or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Disease

Recommended Posts

34 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And how exactly does hand washing help when afterwards, people touch dozens of various surfaces while repeatedly adjust their masks? 

That is, by the way, assuming said people are washing their hands. Or even have masks on.

There's not much you can do to help people who are fucking idiots. But as long as you as an individual are washing your hands after coming into contact with any possible infected surface and are not adjusting a mask or touching your face every five seconds, the chances of infection from that vector are vanishingly slim.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Werthead said:

There's not much you can do to help people who are fucking idiots. But as long as you as an individual are washing your hands after coming into contact with any possible infected surface and are not adjusting a mask or touching your face every five seconds, the chances of infection from that vector are vanishingly slim.

Do you think these are realistic expectations? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Don't put too much thought on that paper. The author - despite knowing a bunch of math - works on oceanography.

Anyway, I think he didn't advocated no measures, but tried to demonstrate that the draconian lockdowns are not more helpful than more relaxed measures. Which is an interesting though. It might be true that a few measures are enough to bring the infections to an manageable level, but it might strongly depend on cultural behaviours, the cities structure and the underlying infected population. Italy and Spain were the first to deal with the disease in the Western hemisphere.  Little was understood at that time.

 

Yes, totally agree, and individual behaviour understanding the effects on society. That's why Asian countries tend to be more effective dealing with those measures than Western cultures. Although, well, expertise on that matter with other previous similar diseases help in organising massive tests and so on, and some Asian countries had that.

Edited by Meera of Tarth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Do you think these are realistic expectations? 

Donald Trump and a lot of governors seem to think so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Donald Trump and a lot of governors seem to think so.

Go use a public bird bath! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Lots more statements being made about proof the virus came from the Wuhan Lab albeit the virus has a natural origin. What's the implication here? The lab was studying this specific virus and it leaked out somehow? The lab was not studying this specific virus but it was incidentally present in animals in the lab? The virus was known about for months (if the lab was studying the virus), or perhaps a year or more before the outbreak? The lab deliberately infected people to see if it affected humans? If the virus was naturally occurring then it is possible the lab had it / was studying it and at the same time the source of the outbreak was not the lab but the natural cycling of the virus in wild and domestic animals that came into contact with people. After all, if the lab found the virus out in the wild it means it was prevalent enough in the wild animal / bat population(s) for scientists to find this particular virus as opposed to any of the other hundreds of coronaviruses that cycles through the wild. Was the lab studying this virus specifically because it originally found the virus in people who had picked it up naturally?

For New Zealand, the good news is this is out first real 0 new cases day. In the past the net change in cases has been zero (and negative on one day), but that's because some people in the "probable" category got ruled out as actual cases but at the same time there were some new actual cases. But today there are no actual new cases. also no deaths and now under 200 active cases. Now the long tail of trying to get active cases down to zero starts with daily recovery number being about 10, so with a handful of new cases still likely to crop up we'll be about a month before we might possibly get to zero active cases.

I wonder when this ANZAC bubble might happen. Aus got 21 new cases today, and If Australia keeps getting double digit new cases it will mean Australia will continue to present an ongoing, albeit low grade, risk. And we don't want anyone bringing it back / in from Australia if we make a bubble.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

despite there being no change to the official position my train was at least twice as busy as it has been.  its still really quiet and social distancing isn't a problem, but clearly people are starting to drift back to work. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On that paper being written by an oceanographer, that's not necessarily a bad thing if he knows his math. The model he used seems to have been picked randomly, though, so it's all BS. Still, from what I found on Wikipedia, modelling an epidemic is just solving ordinary differential equations, and they are similar to what's used in chemistry. Hardly witchcraft. 

As for Italy and Spain, looking at the daily case numbers I wouldn't say they are doing poorly. I'd rather worry about the US, Canada and the UK. I don't really see any decline at all. Canada is even still growing. And then there's Russia and Brazil, which are climbing up the leaderboard fast. Not much to be smug about for Mr. Putin. And let's not forget India. If they don't manage to contain the virus things will get really ugly. Africa and the rest of Latin America don't get much attention either but the virus is definitely spreading there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Lots more statements being made about proof the virus came from the Wuhan Lab albeit the virus has a natural origin. What's the implication here? The lab was studying this specific virus and it leaked out somehow? The lab was not studying this specific virus but it was incidentally present in animals in the lab? The virus was known about for months (if the lab was studying the virus), or perhaps a year or more before the outbreak? The lab deliberately infected people to see if it affected humans? If the virus was naturally occurring then it is possible the lab had it / was studying it and at the same time the source of the outbreak was not the lab but the natural cycling of the virus in wild and domestic animals that came into contact with people. After all, if the lab found the virus out in the wild it means it was prevalent enough in the wild animal / bat population(s) for scientists to find this particular virus as opposed to any of the other hundreds of coronaviruses that cycles through the wild. Was the lab studying this virus specifically because it originally found the virus in people who had picked it up naturally?

There might be a grain of truth on those allegations.  China is refusing to cooperate in any investigation.  Reportedly. With so much propaganda, noise, baseless allegations, it not easy to discern the reality. I'm unable to judge in one way or another. 

One thing that I'm however starting to find strange is that countries are looking back and finding more and more earlier cases and COVID related deaths. For me it means that either the disease did spread with astonishing speed or the outbreak started earlier. But in the later case, shouldn't we see evidence in the molecular clock? According to it the first case was around the 15 Nov, so community spread in China started to pick up really in December.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Lots more statements being made about proof the virus came from the Wuhan Lab albeit the virus has a natural origin. What's the implication here? The lab was studying this specific virus and it leaked out somehow? The lab was not studying this specific virus but it was incidentally present in animals in the lab? The virus was known about for months (if the lab was studying the virus), or perhaps a year or more before the outbreak? The lab deliberately infected people to see if it affected humans? If the virus was naturally occurring then it is possible the lab had it / was studying it and at the same time the source of the outbreak was not the lab but the natural cycling of the virus in wild and domestic animals that came into contact with people. After all, if the lab found the virus out in the wild it means it was prevalent enough in the wild animal / bat population(s) for scientists to find this particular virus as opposed to any of the other hundreds of coronaviruses that cycles through the wild. Was the lab studying this virus specifically because it originally found the virus in people who had picked it up naturally?

Lets look at the facts:

- in Wuhan is an institute of virology.

- it is the only institute in China with the highest safety grade (P4), which means it studies the really dangerous stuff

- it is known that it studied SARS related coronaviruses from bats (which means it isolated such viruses out of bats) and had them in ther labs

All of that makes the theory of a non-intentional leak possible.

On the other hand, there is no proof, it could still be the bat - other animal - human transmission out of the wet markets.

Since we don't know it, an independent investigation would be really necessary to understand what happened and make sure that it doesn't happen again.

Unfortunately I do not believe that such an independent investigation will be possible. And for this China is to blame.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

despite there being no change to the official position my train was at least twice as busy as it has been.  its still really quiet and social distancing isn't a problem, but clearly people are starting to drift back to work. 

The roads are definitely getting busier. I’ve seen it myself twking daughter to nursery, and also heard same observation from family in other parts of Scotland.

A local drycleaner had a sign up saying they’re reopening today (wtf? Is there a big demand for suits and formal wear to get cleaned lately?)

Wotherspoons pub chain is of the opinion they’ll be fine to re-open in June. /eyeroll

If they do, I hope the cops sit outside and fine everyone going in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

despite there being no change to the official position my train was at least twice as busy as it has been.  its still really quiet and social distancing isn't a problem, but clearly people are starting to drift back to work. 

I’ve been getting this sense for at least a week that people are bored of the virus now and that maybe it’s not even that scary.

Roads are definitely busier, parks were busy yesterday and on Saturday. Social distancing is happening but you can feel that standards are being loosened.

I can’t see the country sticking to the lockdown for months at a time unfortunately 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From today on, businesses are open again in rural municipalities. There are limitations and restrictions, restaurants may only admit customers to patio/terrace/garden areas, zoos and outdoor swimming pools may also open with restrictions that include max capacity limitations, shorter opening hours, not admitting elderly customers, 2 meters distance, disinfection, etc. Professional sportsmen are also allowed to return to training though only when testing negative for covid antibodies. 

In the capital and the surrounding municipality former restrictions remain in place until further notice, though many cafés opened for takeaway or outdoor service and large department stores for limited hours and with limited capacity. On the individual side, however, the restrictions about no unnecessary outings (there's a list of things you are officially allowed to do) stayed in effect, so basically these cafés are counting on people's breaking these restrictions of individual behaviour. No surprise there, we are undisciplined scum. 

Our numbers aren't actually showing a downward tendency, we have been stagnating around the 50-100 new cases per day increase rate for over two weeks now. However it seems that the health care system is a bit more prepared and self-assured with open facilities and free beds to admit covid patients if necessary. We also initiated a nation-wide representative testing that aims to have 18.000 randomly selected citizens tested to see a national pattern and base further restrictions or lift of in the upcoming weeks.

This is what I gather from the media and governmental covid press releases and publications. Some of the info may be inaccurate because I'm only human. So again: just a personal assessment and not facts. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still think the lab release theory is unlikely. There's just no evidence for it. The genetic analysis of the virus show it hasn't been manipulated, and US intelligence agencies reject the idea.

I think it's extremely important to track the origin of the virus, but frankly were I the Chinese authorities I wouldn't agree to an international investigation either. At this point it's entirely predicated on pinning blame on the Chinese government for Trump's domestic political advantage. Which is why he's pushing conspiracy theories with very slim evidence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many other businesses have opened today, including hairdressers, cosmetic salons, shops up to a certain size, outdoor pub/restaurant areas. I went cycling to the city centre yesterday and there were plenty of people walking and biking on the streets, it was a sunny day, so it was almost like any other nice Sunday, only the cafés were still closed.

Schools are staying closed until the middle of May, and then regular classes only begin for final grades of secondary schools, as well as final grades of primary schools and the first three grades. Meanwhile, 4th to 8th primary schools and 1st to 3rd secondary schools stay at home until September. The groups are supposed to be split up so that the sizes of classes are smaller. I have no clue how that is going to work at all. I sympathise with these students who are not going to see their peers for half a year.

1 hour ago, RhaenysBee said:

We also initiated a nation-wide representative testing that aims to have 18.000 randomly selected citizens tested to see a national pattern and base further restrictions or lift of in the upcoming weeks.

They attempted to do that here. Sadly, people are stupid and less than a half of people selected for the study want to participate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

despite there being no change to the official position my train was at least twice as busy as it has been.  its still really quiet and social distancing isn't a problem, but clearly people are starting to drift back to work. 

The rich need the plebs to make them coins, after all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

I still think the lab release theory is unlikely. There's just no evidence for it. The genetic analysis of the virus show it hasn't been manipulated, and US intelligence agencies reject the idea.

I think it's extremely important to track the origin of the virus, but frankly were I the Chinese authorities I wouldn't agree to an international investigation either. At this point it's entirely predicated on pinning blame on the Chinese government for Trump's domestic political advantage. Which is why he's pushing conspiracy theories with very slim evidence.

Both things can be true, it can be a totally naturally occurring virus and the outbreak can have originated from the lab. Hell it could have been a lab worker who got accidentally exposed and took it home with them and no one at the lab even new of the exposure. I can imagine a bit of a culture of fear around making mistakes in facilities like this.

Also it's not like high security labs having unintended biosecurity breaches haven't caused disease outbreaks in even in Western Europe in the past. This is exactly what caused the most recent Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak in the UK in 2007. The source of the outbreak was the effluent pipes from either the Institute for Animal Health or the similar vaccine researching and producing Merial Animal Health laboratory near to Pirbtight. Most people don't know or care about it because it's just an livestock disease and it was confined to the UK and there is an effective surveillance system to try to detect FMD early in an outbreak to prevent it from going wide. But nonetheless it was still a lab biosecurity breach. An eminent scientist Dr King, a former head of molecular biology was quoted as saying "As far as I am concerned the authorities have failed to find any chink in the armoury of the establishment’s bio-security. What you are left with is human movement, which is not a matter for the institute, it’s a police matter. It’s very, very unlikely that it could be spread by accident. People do not spread the disease easily." The final report into the outbreak concluded "A report into the epidemic was released on 5 September. It reported that traces of the virus were found in a pipe at the Pirbright institute running from Merial to the government's treatment plant. It is thought that tree roots damaged the pipe allowing the virus to the surface. The report hypothesises that site workmen conveyed the virus to the Normandy farm en route home from work."

The thing is even if the Chinese govt knows it came from a completely innocent lab accident either the world won't believe China (and certainly parts of the world will be convinced it was deliberate release of a genetically engineered virus no matter what the truth of it is) or the world will want to blame China and make it pay in some way regardless of if it was an innocent accident initially. Of course China needs to account for itself in terms of its initial response being to cover up and sweep under the carpet until it couldn't hide the severity of it any more. I am totally willing to personally cut China some slack over a lab accident. But lots of people in powerful positions with political motives won't be. So I can also understand China's reluctance to allow any kind of independent investigation or to allow any possibility of a definitive finding that it cam from a lab. Which is a shame because there are always lessons to learn about lab safety when breaches like this happen.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...