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Zorral

Covid-19 #16: Not Waving, Loop-de-Looping

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On 7/28/2020 at 8:08 PM, Zorral said:

The horror that is tourists from the USA; the colonial mindset stripped bare for all to see, but who cares as We are WE.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/deluded-anti-mask-tourists-swarm-covid-plagued-puerto-rico?

Well, I've come to the conclusion that people's reactions to mandatory mask-wearing in some situations is the best (as in easiest and most reliable) way we've ever had to get the answer to that important question: Are you a sociopath?

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"Yes, the Coronavirus Is in the Air
Transmission through aerosols matters — and probably a lot more than we’ve been able to prove yet.
By Linsey C. Marr
Ms. Marr is a professor of engineering.
July 30, 2020"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/opinion/coronavirus-aerosols.html?

Quote

 

[....]
I am a civil and environmental engineer who studies how viruses and bacteria spread through the air — as well as one of the 239 scientists who signed an open letter in late June pressing the W.H.O. to consider the risk of airborne transmission more seriously.

A month later, I believe that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via aerosols matters much more than has been officially acknowledged to date.
[....]
In a peer-reviewed study published in Nature on Wednesday, researchers at the University of Nebraska Medical Center found that aerosols collected in the hospital rooms of Covid-19 patients contained the coronavirus.

This confirms the results of a study from late May (not peer-reviewed) in which Covid-19 patients were found to release SARS-CoV-2 simply by exhaling — without coughing or even talking. The authors of that study said the finding implied that airborne transmission “plays a major role” in spreading the virus.

Accepting these conclusions wouldn’t much change what is currently being recommended as best behavior. The strongest protection against SARS-CoV-2, whether the virus is mostly contained in droplets or in aerosols, essentially remains the same: Keep your distance and wear masks.[MORE]

 

 

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Hah, i seem to recall some neat piling on some guy for daring to call the virus air borne :D

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38 minutes ago, Isalie said:

Hah, i seem to recall some neat piling on some guy for daring to call the virus air borne :D

Let's not be too hasty, there has been more shit written in a shorter space of time than on any other issue in history. 

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20 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Let's not be too hasty, there has been more shit written in a shorter space of time than on any other issue in history. 

And yet both sides were dead certain.

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Considering what's been reported about some of the biggest superspreading events, airborne contagion is kind of a given. What % of total infections does it cause is the real question. And the 1.000 $ question: Would stopping such airborne superspreading events be enough to bring the reproduction rate below 1 and lead to a real decline in the epidemic?

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4 hours ago, Isalie said:

Hah, i seem to recall some neat piling on some guy for daring to call the virus air borne :D

I think of him every article like this I read.

Today Fauci said he also recommends wearing eye goggles.  Glasses companies (the whole 2 or 3 that remain) will get rich making prescription goggles, maybe?

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I simply don’t understand how these idiots thought COVID-19 was going rock blue states and skip over red states. Didn’t they look at Europe? Did it hit Italy and skip Spain and Germany? 
 

Whoever eventually runs against that twit in Florida should use one ad in their campaign only, DeSantis sneering at reporters saying “you all said we were going to be just like New York, here it is eight weeks later and we aren’t!”

Of course, his election isn’t for a while, sadly, people are so dumb they may forget.

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Geez, a woman in Ohio woke up from her COVID coma and found out they gave her a double-lung transplant while she was out because her’s had been trashed by the virus. 

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9 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Considering what's been reported about some of the biggest superspreading events, airborne contagion is kind of a given. What % of total infections does it cause is the real question. And the 1.000 $ question: Would stopping such airborne superspreading events be enough to bring the reproduction rate below 1 and lead to a real decline in the epidemic?

It's still an open question, but a lot of them. I've seen numbers from 6-10% of the people cause the 80-90% of the infections. So getting rid of the superspreaders will have a huge impact. It's clear that certain situations are dangerous: churches, night clubs, discotheques, slaughterhouses, etc as well as certain activities like shouting, singing, speaking under physical effort, etc. Forbidding and managing some of these situation for the time being will help (you cannot forbid slaughterhouses but they need to be managed with care). The question there is whether there is also intrinsic to some people that make them superspreaders.

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

It's still an open question, but a lot of them. I've seen numbers from 6-10% of the people cause the 80-90% of the infections. So getting rid of the superspreaders will have a huge impact. It's clear that certain situations are dangerous: churches, night clubs, discotheques, slaughterhouses, etc as well as certain activities like shouting, singing, speaking under physical effort, etc. Forbidding and managing some of these situation for the time being will help (you cannot forbid slaughterhouses but they need to be managed with care). The question there is whether there is also intrinsic to some people that make them superspreaders.

I've also seen lots of the articles that suggest that superspreaders are predominantly responsible for most of the virus transmission. I want to know what it is that makes someone a superspreader; is it simply their behaviour (e.g. the fact that they might be more social, or visit more locations, etc) or is there anything medical that makes someone a superspreader because they carry a higher viral load or something?

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On 7/29/2020 at 9:28 AM, Fragile Bird said:

I just wondered because I was looking at the deaths in Ontario, 2,769, a number I have a high level of confidence in, and the deaths associated with care facilities is 1,844, about 67%. At one point it was beween 75% and 80%, and then everyone was tested and the military moved in to the worst-hit homes.

That led me to look at deaths in US states. 16 US states have more deaths than Ontario, but only 4 have larger populations. I wonder if a similar testing blitz on nursing homes to isolate cases among residents and workers could drop the death rate. Or are the deaths mainly outside of those facilities?

Washington has been doing mass testing of nursing home residents and staff since June.

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4 hours ago, Jeor said:

I've also seen lots of the articles that suggest that superspreaders are predominantly responsible for most of the virus transmission. I want to know what it is that makes someone a superspreader; is it simply their behaviour (e.g. the fact that they might be more social, or visit more locations, etc) or is there anything medical that makes someone a superspreader because they carry a higher viral load or something?

I don’t have an answer for you, but I saw a story about a woman who returned from a vacation, Europe iirc, who hopped in a taxi, went straight home to her apartment building and self isolated for 14 days. They traced 71 cases to her. 

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4 hours ago, Jeor said:

I've also seen lots of the articles that suggest that superspreaders are predominantly responsible for most of the virus transmission. I want to know what it is that makes someone a superspreader; is it simply their behaviour (e.g. the fact that they might be more social, or visit more locations, etc) or is there anything medical that makes someone a superspreader because they carry a higher viral load or something?

Well. It's somthing I'd like to know too. It's clear that some situations are prone to create superspreading events. Behaviour of some have also an influence, including things like voice volume. But I tend to suspect there is also some medical/anatomical/physiological characteristics also at play.

I haven't seen anything on the effect on R0 of suppressing superspreading events.  I'm not sure if it's enough to completely cut the infection chain. I tend to think that unless coordinated and effective measures are internationally agreed and enforced, non-pharmaceutical interventions cannot suppress the pandemic. Even in that case, a few non-complaining individuals (or even accidents) can trash months of hard work as New Zealand, Uruguay or Vietnam will learn sooner or later.

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43 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don’t have an answer for you, but I saw a story about a woman who returned from a vacation, Europe iirc, who hopped in a taxi, went straight home to her apartment building and self isolated for 14 days. They traced 71 cases to her. 

I don't know the details, but I would assume that if that is true, then she infected people on the plane and at the airport.  Just going straight home doesn't really solve those issues.  

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42 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don’t have an answer for you, but I saw a story about a woman who returned from a vacation, Europe iirc, who hopped in a taxi, went straight home to her apartment building and self isolated for 14 days. They traced 71 cases to her. 

May I ask if it mentioned how those 71 were attached? Just curious. Surely she wasn't self-isolated in that case.

I can see how one person could infect a whole bar, things like that. My hometown bars are re-opened, theoretically with distancing measures. One place owned by some longtime friends (I wanted to be their opening bartender pre-covid, and am glad it didn't work out) put up a video of a successful Saturday night live music night. By successful, I mean the place looked exactly like a crowded bar in 2019, except with masked waitresses. One infected person in there would have distributed their spittle all over the damn place. They took the video down rapidly - they've been anti-mask covid-deniers from the start and perhaps didn't realize how bad a look it was. The right-wing mayor in my lame-ass town "warned" them, that's it. It was a pretty good microcosm representing this wonderful country.

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

I don't know the details, but I would assume that if that is true, then she infected people on the plane and at the airport.  Just going straight home doesn't really solve those issues.  

I think FB was remembering this case:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-super-spreader-woman-lift-infections-china-heilongjiang-a9615886.html

A woman travelled form the US to China and is thought to have infected 71 people through breathing in the lift (elevator) which was then taken afterwards by a downstairs neighbour.

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53 minutes ago, Sophelia said:

I think FB was remembering this case:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-super-spreader-woman-lift-infections-china-heilongjiang-a9615886.html

A woman travelled form the US to China and is thought to have infected 71 people through breathing in the lift (elevator) which was then taken afterwards by a downstairs neighbour.

Ah yes, thank-you! I got the direction wrong, they returned to China from abroad. The story I originally read did not have as much detail, and now I don't know why they called them a super-spreader. It may be they did not have all the details at the time either. The story demonstrates a chain of infection rather than a super-spreader.

More of a case of a super-spreader was a person, possibly 2 people, who returned to Newfoundland to attend a funeral. Some stories have said 2 people at two funerals, some other stories have said one person who attended both funerals. They were responsible for almost all the initial cases in Newfoundland, about 150 iirc. As of today Newfoundland shows it recorded 266 cases, I don't know how many of the later cases, if any, were connected to the initial funeral attendees.

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