Gertrude Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I gotta say, I'm pretty demoralized by the Iowa polls lately. Why does my state suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Gertrude said: I gotta say, I'm pretty demoralized by the Iowa polls lately. Why does my state suck? Iowa has been probably the state most all over the map this cycle (along with Ohio maybe). Anything from Trump +4 to Biden +3 feels very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/1/2020 at 9:16 AM, Relic said: What does Nate Silver really know? Oh stumbled across this. According to Ygritte: ”You know nothing Nate Silver.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Was just looking at Michael McDonald's final weekly analysis, and I thought this was worth sharing: Quote Examining each state in turn, and rolling up the state estimates to a national estimate, I arrive at a total turnout rate of 160.2 million votes, or a turnout rate for those eligible to vote of 67.0%. Regrettably, I have signed a non-disclosure agreement with the national exit poll organization that prevents me from going into greater detail about state turnout estimates, as I have in past years. I will be allowed to post estimates late on election night, which I will continue to update in the days afterwards as results are reported. Trust me, no one is more disappointed than me about this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 56 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Iowa has been probably the state most all over the map this cycle (along with Ohio maybe). Anything from Trump +4 to Biden +3 feels very possible. I heard on NPR there was something like a 20 point shift among independents from Biden to Trump over the summer to the fall. That doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I've reached the part of the program where I am now looking at Steve Schale's (down in FL) blog: http://steveschale.com/ I found this post somewhat encouraging. He says Republicans are down 110k in voters thus far. They have 150k more high likelihood voters. Democrats have an advantage of 150k more low propensity voters. To me, that sounds like approximately a tie. And if the polls are right at all, Democrats are winning npa/Indy voters by at least a couple points, maybe more. So if the breakdown is tied or R+1, that's advantage good guys. Obviously, Steve has been wrong about Florida before, as have all of us. But I'm still feeling reasonably confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I heard on NPR there was something like a 20 point shift among independents from Biden to Trump over the summer to the fall. That doesn't make any sense. My guess is they're referring to Selzer's polling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, DMC said: My guess is they're referring to Selzer's polling. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Ironing? Do people still do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Chataya de Fleury said: I first read that @Zorral was going to launder a lot of money (this is how my brain works), then had to re-read and in disappointment realized there was simply much clothing to be washed (and likely ironed and folded or hung). Washing money at casinos can be fun though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 25 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: I first read that @Zorral was going to launder a lot of money (this is how my brain works), then had to re-read and in disappointment realized there was simply much clothing to be washed (and likely ironed and folded or hung). I read it this way too at first lol. At least you have the career excuse. It probably would be a good day for it though. There's a scary and real chance of serious violence breaking out tomorrow, and even if there doesn't it's likely to be a record breaking day for covid transmission (even if it takes till mid next week to start showing in the stats) so all y'all do your best to stay safe out there. I'm not feeling optimistic right now, but I'm still hoping I'll get to come in here and own the most fabulous L ever once all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Hmm whatever happens tomorrow I do think it’d be wrong for anyone to take it as utterly legitimate proof America is hard red or blue, and laugh at anyone right/left to them a political extremist. I don’t think it’s expected even by his supporters for Trump will at the very least win the popular vote by a particularly wide margin(if he wins—I understand that’s unlikely). I think Biden’s National lead truly reigns in around just 4 points though I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out to be two like Clinton’s. 51-49 % may be a majority but it wouldn’t be a strong majority, so couching the other 49% as totally not relevant to discussing public sentiment is unreasonable imo. America is more purple than it is red or blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Durckad Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Gertrude said: I gotta say, I'm pretty demoralized by the Iowa polls lately. Why does my state suck? If it's any consolation, I've regularly thought the same thing about the entire country the past couple of years. Good luck to all of you voting tomorrow. Stay safe, both from the coronavirus and the viral chuds who are likely to be out in force tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 45 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I heard on NPR there was something like a 20 point shift among independents from Biden to Trump over the summer to the fall. That doesn't make any sense. Why doesn't it? Bunch of civil unrest, businesses closing and being blamed on Biden, and the usual supposed independents not actually being that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 13 hours ago, Fez said: Not election-related, but in a general bit of good news SCOTUS decided to not go full fascist in a pair of reversals of 5th Circuit decisions. https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/110220zor_08m1.pdf One was about not holding the organizer of a BLM protest liable for violence that he didn't commit, the other was about not giving qualified immunity to prison guards who tortured an inmate. Both were 7-1 decisions with Thomas being the dissenter and Barrett not participating. ETA: Actually on the prison one, Alito only concurred in judgment and his concurrence sucks. So there are at least two SCOTUS justices (Barrett may make three) who are fine with prison guards literally torturing inmates. Welcome to America. Ah Thomas. Never stop being terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 RCP is garbage and people should stop using it when 538 and The Economist exist: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Hmm whatever happens tomorrow I do think it’d be wrong for anyone to take it as utterly legitimate proof America is hard red or blue, and laugh at anyone right/left to them a political extremist. I don’t think it’s expected even by his supporters for Trump will at the very least win the popular vote by a particularly wide margin(if he wins—I understand that’s unlikely). I think Biden’s National lead truly reigns in around just 4 points though I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out to be two like Clinton’s. 51-49 % may be a majority but it wouldn’t be a strong majority, so couching the other 49% as totally not relevant to discussing public sentiment is unreasonable imo. America is more purple than it is red or blue. Your posts are such a joy to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Ran said: RCP is garbage and people should stop using it when 538 and The Economist exist Just looking at their drops in Biden's national and battleground state averages today concurrently with the all the other polling that was coming out was clearly looking at two different universes. I talked to my mom on..Thursday and she was saying she was obsessively checking on the election. After awhile she was like "I just don't get why those arrows keep going down." I was like, ah, stop looking at RCP ma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I don't normally get involved in thread titles, but I'd like to suggest something along the lines of "judgement day on the precipice". Something capturing that this is a singular moment where possibilities converge and the future of our world may turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: Your posts are such a joy to read. 44-49% of the public isn’t irrelevant in terms of talking about America’s character. I don’t think that’s a dour message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.