How likely is a Targaryen restoration? And how welcomed would a Targaryen restoration be?

[Alex13]

Considering that current events, with Daenerys being just found by Khal Jhaqo, Aegon having control of Storm's End and going to meet and fight with Mace Tyrell and his army, and with Jon Snow currently dead at Castle Black, how likely would a Targaryen restoration be?

Will the events that happened in the show, with Dany taking command of the dothraki, obtaining a fleet and sailing to Westeros still happen? And what might her reception be, considering that Doran is still alive and in charge of Dorne and that Aegon might also still be alive when she arrives?

Also, how might Aegon's reception with the Reach lords and the lords of the other kingdoms go and will he be able to gain some support? And how will he react to Dany arriving in Westeros with an army of Unsullied, Dothraki and 3 dragons?

And last but not least, what about Jon Snow? Will we see the revelation that he is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, and might he have some proof of that? Possibly some documents ,proving that he is a legitimate son, hidden in Lyanna's tomb in Winterfell or with Howland at Greywater Watch? Or will he lack the documents to prove that, but bond with a dragon, in which case people will most likely think that he is a Targaryen bastard, not trueborn. And how will people react to that, especially Aegon, Dany and the Martell's.

And considering all that has happened with Aerys, Rhaegar and the Rebellion, how welcome would a Targaryen restoration be? 

[TheLastWolf]

There's already an active at times, dormant at rest thread about it. I suggest you look through it to find some answers. Anything new or unanswered, we are always there. Well, not always... Shrug. 

[Lord Lannister]

Those nobles who stand to gain will welcome it, those who stand to lose will resist. The smallfolk will get screwed regardless.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

Aegon will probably be King and a decent one at that, with mostly support from the smallfolk, the Faith and the petty nobility, basically Mathias Corvinus. Then again he probably isn't a Targaryen.

If we're talking about the other 2, well I don't see Daenaerys being popular in any regard, with her claim being weaker then Aegon's, her distaste with anything even remotely sounding like compromise, and her massive horse of unwashed raping savages.

Jon might be King at the very end but that's so far removed I couldn't say anything more.

[Moiraine Sedai]

34 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Those nobles who stand to gain will welcome it, those who stand to lose will resist. The smallfolk will get screwed regardless.

Partly true.  I disagree about the small folk getting screwed.  They are getting screwed now because of the Starks, Lannisters, and Baratheons.  Those three families really need to die out.  I am naturally a Targaryen supporter.  A Targaryen restoration under Daenerys is the best possible outcome for the small folk.  

Jon, whether Targaryen or not, will not be welcomed because of the problems he caused at the wall.  Aegon will get support initially but will soon lose much of it after he is revealed to a fraud.  

[Alyn Oakenfist]

22 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Partly true.  I disagree about the small folk getting screwed.  They are getting screwed now because of the Starks, Lannisters, and Baratheons.  Those three families really need to die out.  I am naturally a Targaryen supporter.  A Targaryen restoration under Daenerys is the best possible outcome for the small folk.  

Yes I'm sure the best possible ruler is the one who rules with an iron fist, cares nothing for and has lived a total of one day in the Continent she wants to conquer and knows nothing of it's traditions and customs, not to mention having the added benefit of being the daughter of the Mad King.

22 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Aegon will get support initially but will soon lose much of it after he is revealed to a fraud.  

Yes because the smallfolk notoriously care a lot about the Iron Throne and legitimacy and won't just support whoever gives them food and safety, which Aegon will be able to provide

Also how exactly is he going to revealed to be a fraud?

Is Dany going to say, I had a prophetic dream about it and everybody is going to believe her? Remember we know that he's probably a Blackfyre/Brightflame, Westeros doesn't know that and it will probably never know.

[CamiloRP]

38 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yes I'm sure the best possible ruler is the one who rules with an iron fist, cares nothing for and has lived a total of one day in the Continent she wants to conquer and knows nothing of it's traditions and customs, not to mention having the added benefit of being the daughter of the Mad King.

Yes because the smallfolk notoriously care a lot about the Iron Throne and legitimacy and won't just support whoever gives them food and safety, which Aegon will be able to provide

Also how exactly is he going to revealed to be a fraud?

Is Dany going to say, I had a prophetic dream about it and everybody is going to believe her? Remember we know that he's probably a Blackfyre/Brightflame, Westeros doesn't know that and it will probably never know.

Tho I don't agree with @Moiraine Sedai at all (I mean, Starks, Baratheon and Lannisters need to be gone, but only as much as any other house, Targs included). And I specially don't agree at all that Daenerys is an all good savior/ruler. 

But. I also don't agree with her 'caring for nothing'. She does care for her people, and has shown it many times over. And the smallfolk do care about legitimacy, that's why the system sustains itself, they are encouraged to love their king and caring about this issues. And we see how they do throughout the story.

 

The thing Westeros needs is not another monarch tho. Monarchy needs to be ended so the petty wars can end too. Westeros needs to starts to transition towards democracy. And Westeros does not need to have a person for a supposedly superior race, descendant of the ones who transformed to kingdom into a colony as a ruler. If any lord would rule (which again, please don't) it should be a Salty Dornish, Dornish law is the closest thing Westerosi have to social justice. Not someone who believes it to be their right. Not someone who only wants it for power. Either that or Beric Dondarrion, he really cares about The People, in caps an all, but sadly he died for that vengeful wraith.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

11 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

But. I also don't agree with her 'caring for nothing'. She does care for her people, and has shown it many times over.

Never said she doesn't. She just doesn't care for compromise.

11 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

And the smallfolk do care about legitimacy, that's why the system sustains itself, they are encouraged to love their king and caring about this issues. And we see how they do throughout the story.

They really don't. The only times we see them acting in regards to politics (The storming of the dragonpit, the riots, the celebrations for the Tyrells, the Sparrows) it's because they're hungry or dying. And as I said, how exactly is "Aegon going to be revealed as a fraud". Will Dany say I had a prophetic dream about a mummers dragon and everyone is going to believe her?

11 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

The thing Westeros needs is not another monarch tho. Monarchy needs to be ended so the petty wars can end too. Westeros needs to starts to transition towards democracy.

Yeah, there's no way Westeros is going to be anything but a monarchy by the end. It will be a constitutional monarchy however.

11 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

And Westeros does not need to have a person for a supposedly superior race, descendant of the ones who transformed to kingdom into a colony as a ruler.

Yeah, bad news, the 3 main options for end monarchs are Jon, Dany and Bran, two of them being of said dynasty while the third id even worse in the master race thing.

11 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

Not someone who believes it to be their right. Not someone who only wants it for power.

That would be Jon honestly creating a united anti WW front. I can't really see him taking the Throne just for shits and giggles. Neither Bran really. Dany though... oh boy, she'll be the epithatmy of ruling just because of power hunger and irrelevant claims thinking to be the "rightful ruler".

[CamiloRP]

45 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Never said she doesn't. She just doesn't care for compromise.

 

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yes I'm sure the best possible ruler is the one who rules with an iron fist, cares nothing for and has lived a total of one day in the Continent she wants to conquer

 

 

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They really don't. The only times we see them acting in regards to politics (The storming of the dragonpit, the riots, the celebrations for the Tyrells, the Sparrows) it's because they're hungry or dying.

Acting is one thing. But there are many times in which we hear the smallfolk talk about the 'true king' and such.

 

Quote

Yeah, there's no way Westeros is going to be anything but a monarchy by the end. It will be a constitutional monarchy however.

Yeah, bad news, the 3 main options for end monarchs are Jon, Dany and Bran, two of them being of said dynasty while the third id even worse in the master race thing.

I'm not talking about what will happen, I'm talking about what Westeros needs.

 

Quote

That would be Jon honestly creating a united anti WW front. I can't really see him taking the Throne just for shits and giggles. Neither Bran really. Dany though... oh boy, she'll be the epithatmy of ruling just because of power hunger and irrelevant claims thinking to be the "rightful ruler".

I don't think the anti Others front will happen or would be a good thing, I think the solution is a treaty, not a war. Luckily, Jon's whole storyline has been learning to empathize with 'others'.

 

[Rose of Red Lake]

Depends, do you mean a Targaryen restoration with all 7 kingdoms kneel to a Targaryen?

And would this should be by coercion or out of voluntary selection?

Take 1 of the 7 kingdoms as a restoration block. There is a sense that minus the Boltons, Northern people really love the Starks. There is a deep affection there for them that the Mormonts, Manderlys, and Reeds have that I don't see others having. Even Barbary Dustin who dislikes Ned, loved Brandon. Sansa has won over Sweetrobin, Jon has won the free folk. These are small bases of power for now but it can grow. I don't really see the same kind of love for Aegon or Dany happening on a widespread level with the power base in Westeros. Based on Fire and Blood I think we're more likely to see Targaryens shooting themselves in the foot by fighting each other. 

[Quoth the raven,]

5 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Partly true.  I disagree about the small folk getting screwed.  They are getting screwed now because of the Starks, Lannisters, and Baratheons.  Those three families really need to die out.  I am naturally a Targaryen supporter.  A Targaryen restoration under Daenerys is the best possible outcome for the small folk.  

Jon, whether Targaryen or not, will not be welcomed because of the problems he caused at the wall.  Aegon will get support initially but will soon lose much of it after he is revealed to a fraud.  

Yup they do.  Put Tully, Arryn, Greyjoy, Martell on the same need-to-die category.  Increase the size of the Council and have the lords report to them.  The Hand can report to the monarch directly. 

[Ivan Tsarevich]

8 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

But there are many times in which we hear the smallfolk talk about the 'true king' and such.

Yep. Fire & Blood, The Sons of the Dragon.

Quote

The Warrior's Sons were not slow to accept her challenge. Down from the Hill of Rhaenys they rode, seven hundred knights in silvered steel led by their grand captain, Ser Damon Morrigen, called Damon the Devout. "Let us not bandy words," Maegor told him. "Swords will decide this matter." Ser Damon agreed; the gods would grant victory to the man whose cause was just, he said. "Let each side have seven champions, as it was done in Andalos of old. Can you find six men to stand beside you?" For Aenys had taken the Kingsguard to Dragonstone, and Maegor stood alone.

The king turned to the crowd. "Who will come and stand beside his king?" he called. Many turned away in fear or pretended that they did not hear, for the prowess of the Warrior's Sons was known to all. But at last one man offered himself: no knight, but a simple man-at-arms who called himself Dick Bean. "I been a king's man since I was a boy," he said. "I mean to die king's man."

Only then did the first knight step forward. "This bean shames us all!" he shouted. "Are there no true knights here? No leal men?" The speaker was Bernarr Brune, the squire who had slain Harren the Red and been knighted by king Aenys himself. His scorn drove others to offer their swords. The names of the four Maegor chose are writ large in the history of Westeros: Ser Bramm of Blackhull, a hedge knight; Ser Rayford Rosby; Ser Guy Lothston, called Guy the Glutton; and Ser Lucifer Massey, Lord of Stonedance.

The smallfolk when focused on is naturally composed of individuals and even groups such as the clans of the North. There's even a mention of yeomen in The Mystery Knight, and that word to my knowledge can mean a free landowning commoner (it can also mean a retainer, which also makes sense in the context, so this is no proof of anything). There are loyalists, such as Dick Bean and Davos, demagogues like the Shepherd and Damphair (who actually is a noble, but that's beside the point), victims like the people of Sherrer. So yes, there are people who care about the king, among the rest.

Varys' riddle might be apt here. The sellsword it features happens to be of common birth.

But still. The smallfolk are under-represented in the books, and given the language used by Jorah Mormont for example, it's easy to think them as a nearly monolithic group. The books obviously do have a theme about the plight and suffering of the smallfolk and people often seem to give their loyalty to the side that doesn't maltreat them. Tyranny and failures of government do not go down well, as shown by the bread riot of KL. Can we truly treat them as individuals, rather than a representatives of their group or social class? I'd say both: Dick Bean obviously cared enough to risk his life and then die for the Targaryen king, and one would expect there be others of similar persuasion, to varying degree. Does that mean that the smallfolk as one wanted the Targaryen rule? Hardly. Besides the fact that the rule of the Iron Throne was young and there probably would be people longing for the lost independence in the westerlands for example, there were the Poor Fellows, who also were mostly smallfolk.

[Lord Lannister]

On 12/16/2020 at 11:27 AM, Moiraine Sedai said:

Partly true.  I disagree about the small folk getting screwed.  They are getting screwed now because of the Starks, Lannisters, and Baratheons.  Those three families really need to die out.  I am naturally a Targaryen supporter.  A Targaryen restoration under Daenerys is the best possible outcome for the small folk.  

Jon, whether Targaryen or not, will not be welcomed because of the problems he caused at the wall.  Aegon will get support initially but will soon lose much of it after he is revealed to a fraud.  

Well it hasn't exactly worked out for the common people of Slavers Bay so far. I can't see Dany doing any better in Westeros. She hasn't lived a day of her life there. Thematically I think her story is to be a conqueror and not a ruler.

[broken one]

3 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

Well it hasn't exactly worked out for the common people of Slavers Bay so far.

Economic base of Mereen was slave trade, Daenerys destroyed it for ideological reasons and this was source of the problem I think.

Economic base of Westeros is.... something else. Cultivation of cereals, probably. I cannot see why dany would destroy it, so I am rather optimistic about her ass on the IT. BTW in fact she is an alien anywhere she goes.

[Lion of the West]

13 minutes ago, broken one said:

Economic base of Westeros is.... something else. Cultivation of cereals, probably. I cannot see why dany would destroy it, so I am rather optimistic about her ass on the IT. BTW in fact she is an alien anywhere she goes.

One issue with this is that in Slavery's Bay Danaerys tried to rule a single city, force reform on one city and install a new government in one city. And that don't seem to have worked out very well.

Westeros on the other hand is huge and together with the absence of any kind of royal administration, which historically grew across centuries to replace feudalism, there's little chance that she won't either let the feudal system keep running OR try to dismantle it by force and so make a war-torn reign on the pair with Maegor's reign.

I don't see how Westeros can considered to have even a partial readiness for transition towards either a monarchy on a renaissance model or some kind of non-monarchic rule on Westeros' scale with is more than a face of anything save an oligarchy.

*****

On the other hand I do agree that the Great Houses of Westeros has screwed up and thrown the realm into "stasis"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasis_(ancient_Greece)

The big questions is if it will be ended by some kind of moderate solution, like Solon, or if there needs to be a, or several, Peisistratos to clear the ground for an end to the conflict. Now Danaerys as a Peisistratos of Westeros is of course a very interesting concept. I have no idea if it would work but it would be interesting to see how it would develop. 

[The Commentator]

It’s not known whether there will be a Targaryen Restoration.  I don’t think a Stark will be sitting on the throne and ruling over Westeros.  This generation of Starks, Jon included, are just not good at it.  Sitting under a mound of dirt and spying on people is not adequate preparation for a leader.  Bran’s training is not headed towards leadership.  Jon Snow had his chance and totally messed up at the wall.  He got what he wanted, got the wildlings across, and then stuck his nose in Ramsay’s business.  What Jon did will continue to cause problems at the NW.   Heaven help the living if Sansa ever gets into power.  
 

Aegon is already getting some support.  He’s not a bad young man but he’s also not the right person to lead the people through the darkness.  For that, the people need Daenerys Targaryen.  The young lady who successfully led a Khalasar through the desert and rescued more than 8000 slave soldiers from their evil captors.  
 

A Targaryen Restoration would imply that Westeros will be one realm again.  That is not likely during a long night-long winter scenario.  But someone will lead the people through the darkness and into the light, then that should be Daenerys.  The Starks will be around and they will be players. That said, there won’t be people outside of the north who would support an oath breaker like Jon Snow, who has a history of failure at the wall.  And Bran, the only way this boy becomes a king of anything is if he skin changes people and control their minds. And then the people will be no more than Bran’s slaves.  I fully expect Bran to break this moral code and mind control people but not on the scale needed to put his butt on a throne.  

[Rose of Red Lake]

1 hour ago, broken one said:

BTW in fact she is an alien anywhere she goes.

That is her decision to feel like an outsider. She chooses to feel this way because she is deluded by Viserys' beliefs.

Summarizing her decisions in the books: She could be happy with the Dothraki but thats not a life for the dragon. She could be happy in Vaes Tolerro and making a dead city bloom but thats what losers do. She could rebuild Meereen but its the Harpy's city, she's a queen in Westeros, and rebuilding is dumb.

[Loose Bolt]

I suspect that Cersei, (f)Aegon, Stannis and Starks lacks necessary support to keep ruling Westeros. For instance Faith almost certainly would not support either tree worshipping shaman/warlock or demon worshipper. Cersei seems to do her worst to make anyone her enemy. Problem of (f)Aegon is that Dorne and Stormlands are among the weakest kingdoms so even full support of those would not be enough to conquer rest of the 7 kingdoms.

Besides Dorne, Iron Islands, North and possibly Vale would want to keep their autonomy that they had gained thanks to weakness of Iron Throne. So they would support only their own agendas and would not kneel to anyone else.

Or I assume that only Dany with her 3 dragons would have enough military might to make Westeros great again and without those united 7 kingdoms would disintegrate to many petty kingdoms. So if Dany and her dragons would die there would not be any Iron Throne to sit for anyone else.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

2 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

I suspect that Cersei, (f)Aegon, Stannis and Starks lacks necessary support to keep ruling Westeros. For instance Faith almost certainly would not support either tree worshipping shaman/warlock or demon worshipper. Cersei seems to do her worst to make anyone her enemy. Problem of (f)Aegon is that Dorne and Stormlands are among the weakest kingdoms so even full support of those would not be enough to conquer rest of the 7 kingdoms.

That's why he has the most elite and disciplined fighting force in the world. Plus don't forget the Reach. Mace might have enough of Cersei's shit and using Tommen's inability to consummate, switch over, and if he doesn't then Tarly and Rowan are definitely jumping ship.

4 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Besides Dorne, Iron Islands, North and possibly Vale would want to keep their autonomy that they had gained thanks to weakness of Iron Throne. So they would support only their own agendas and would not kneel to anyone else.

The Iron Islands and the North are currently the weakest kingdoms behind only the war torn Riverlands. Dorne will support Aegon full heartedly, especially if Arrianne gets her claws in him, while Littlefinger will support whoever gives him power.

[Lion of the West]

53 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

That's why he has the most elite and disciplined fighting force in the world.

Yes, but it also an fighting force which has been defeated on several occasions by the armies of Westeros. The Golden Companies track record against Westerosi armies don't seem to be all that great.

58 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Or I assume that only Dany with her 3 dragons would have enough military might to make Westeros great again and without those united 7 kingdoms would disintegrate to many petty kingdoms. So if Dany and her dragons would die there would not be any Iron Throne to sit for anyone else.

Not likely. The idea of a united Westeros has not nearly been discredited in any major way beyond the North and Iron Islands. There's just no reason to think that the realm will break up just because another claimant dies.