Covid-19 #38: As the Worm Turns

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Considering that the current global mortality rate from Covid is 2.1%, I'm guessing the hospitalization rate is higher. And once the hospitals are maxed out, you could start to see mortality rates in the low double digits. That's what happened in Northern Italy last spring and Spain last summer. What do you do when you have one ventilator and 10 patients that need it? Build nine coffins. 

Your number also doesn't include the loss in productivity. i.e. people not sick enough to go to the hospital but sick enough to stay home for a number of days and miss work. 

I'm already reading stories about people who don't have Covid but are dying because of stuffed hospitals and ICU's

It says that maybe the government of this province is finally taking this seriously enough to be proactive about it. It says, "you're a fucking asshole" (to the meat sack getting the shot). Personally, I think our Premier needs to start scaring the shit out of people. Not that he'll have my vote in 2023 but whatevs. 

Our outbreak is at about 830 cases and currently 41 in hospital, so a hospitalisation rate of about 5%, 6 in ICU which will have a higher per day cost and probably a longer stay. That is in largely unvaxxed people. So if you can halve the hospitalisation rate with vaccination (though possibly the decrease in hospitalisation is more like 80-90%) then a $100 bribe seems like value for money. For every hundred people vaxed you are preventing 4 (maybe 4.5) hospital cases. If $40K/ patient then that saves $160K for an outlay of $10K.

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

It's looking more and more certain boosters are a go, full steam ahead.

Moderna Covid-19 booster may come later than Pfizer, Fauci says

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/05/health/coronavirus-fauci-moderna-vaccine-booster/index.html

Fauci said ultimately, it may turn out the proper Covid-19 immunization regimen is three doses.

"However, when you look at the Israeli data, and they are about a month or so ahead of us in every aspect of this -- vaccinations, boosters, etc. -- the data from the Israeli studies are that there's a rather substantial diminution in protection against infection and an unquestionable diminution in the protection against hospitalization."

"Importantly, their data also show that when you give those boosters you reconstitute, to an even higher level than before, the protection against both infection and hospitalization," Fauci said. "The boosters really jack up the response very, very high, and we hope that that response would be durable."  

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

That might sound callous but the effect the current wave has on some US states is a good warning for other governments that the pandemic is not over and that measures should be taken.

The Austrian government is already changing its stance for example and started talking about more severe measures again. The German government will follow suit after the election I suspect.

Not callous at all. I hope our elected officials are using the situation in the United States to inform their decision making. This includes the downward trend in approval ratings for Abbot and DeSantis in Texas and Florida, respectively. Maybe the Alberta bribery policy will make those guys look even worse. Win, win.

42 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Our outbreak is at about 830 cases and currently 41 in hospital, so a hospitalisation rate of about 5%, 6 in ICU which will have a higher per day cost and probably a longer stay. That is in largely unvaxxed people. So if you can halve the hospitalisation rate with vaccination (though possibly the decrease in hospitalisation is more like 80-90%) then a $100 bribe seems like value for money. For every hundred people vaxed you are preventing 4 (maybe 4.5) hospital cases. If $40K/ patient then that saves $160K for an outlay of $10K.

 

Finally, someone on this board that can do a little goddamn arithmetic. 

In Alberta, we have 13,495 active cases, 515 hospitalizations and 118 in the ICU. Those proportions are roughly similar to what you describe. The trend is alarming.

Our positivity rate is just over 11%. Its been steadily trending up from about 3% at the beginning of August. 

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

the data from the Israeli studies are that there's a rather substantial diminution in protection against infection and an unquestionable diminution in the protection against hospitalization.

First time i've seen that on hospitalisations.  That's grim.  Although, in line with the escalating fatality rate in Israel.  But yes, makes a booster even more likely.

Interesting idea that 3 doses may generate more durable protection.  I hope so.

9 hours ago, mcbigski said:

And the external costs of lockdowns, maskings, etc.

The cost of masking?  It seems to be mainly an emotional cost right?

I do think it is reasonable to be concerned about COVID right now in the US.  Over 10k dieing in a week.  Might be linked to a (moderately) increasing vaccination rate over the last couple of months.

[Week]

9 hours ago, mcbigski said:

And the external costs of lockdowns, maskings, etc.

[...]

At this point, being both a covid survivor and vaccinated, I think that telling civilians to rewear the same old cloth mask only makes some people question authority even more, and some people even more fearful.  

Just stop being such a wussy baby about masks. It's a very basic, reasonable public health precaution. Less whining about masking would result in better masking in the short term and less need for masking in the long term. Instead we have to listen to the mewling and screeching about fear and freedom from anti-maskers and their adjacents while also dealing with poor masking and greater community spread - more cases (& mutations), hospitalizations, and death.

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

First time i've seen that on hospitalisations.  That's grim.  Although, in line with the escalating fatality rate in Israel.  But yes, makes a booster even more likely.

Interesting idea that 3 doses may generate more durable protection.  I hope so.

The cost of masking?  It seems to be mainly an emotional cost right?

I do think it is reasonable to be concerned about COVID right now in the US.  Over 10k dieing in a week.  Might be linked to a (moderately) increasing vaccination rate over the last couple of months.

There is an environmental cost to disposable masking. So people should be encouraged to buy a (or a couple) of reusable masks. Though there are some efforts going in to recycle masks. Like this story about turning them into fence posts. https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/kiwi-company-looks-recycle-5-million-face-masks-month

As to the personal cost of masking, again, if one buys a couple of re-useable masks the cost is cents per day, so long as you are a conscientious user of your mask and don't just leave it sitting in your pocket/purse/at home.

For the re-useable masks I did use briefly there was a cost in pain and suffering. The 3 hours I spend on a train each day that I commute for work required to wear a mask was very unpleasant until I got a reuseable one that does not cut into the back of my ears. But that's all about getting the right equipment for one's needs, and now that I have the right equipment, no problem.

In other news, as of Wednesday the whole country aside from Auckland is out of lockdown. I am a little bit worried about the North island being out of lockdown while Auckland is still getting handfuls of cases that are creating new locations of interest, and this the potential for legit and non-legit travel across the boundary to take infection to the North or South. South Island should be immune to leakage like that, since you have to take a plane or a boat to get there from Auckland and there should be robust (now) controls preventing such access. Good to have geographically 90% of the country out of lockdown after 20 days. Less good that ~1/3 of the population remains in the hardest lockdown for at least another week.

[Zorral]

It is reported currently that cloth masks aren't as effective as surgical masks.  At this point European airlines are thinking mandating surgical.

The massive Bangladesh mask effectiveness was 'surgical masks' not cloth ones.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/09/03/cloth-masks-airline-banned-covid/

Quote

 

A handful of airlines, mostly in Europe, have banned cloth face coverings in favor of higher-standard versions including surgical masks or respirators. Last month, Finnair joined a list that includes Air France, Lufthansa, Swiss International Air Lines and Croatia Airlines.

“The health and safety of our customers and crew is our first priority, and fabric masks are slightly less efficient at protecting people from infection than surgical masks,” Finnair spokeswoman Heidi Lemmetyinen said in an email. The airline allows surgical masks and filtering respirators such as FFP2 or FFP3, as well as others that are equivalent to the N95 standard.

While U.S. airlines do have some restrictions on masks — none with valves are allowed, for example — they do not prohibit travelers from wearing cloth or fabric versions. The federal mask mandate for planes, trains and buses has been extended until mid-January.

Federal mask mandate for planes, buses and trains to extend into next year

“Some studies show a modest improvement of efficacy of surgical masks compared with cloth masks,” said Perry Flint, a spokesman for the International Air Transport Association. “But any face covering has shown to significantly reduce spread of aerosols, and at this point we have not taken a position on what types of face masks should be required.”

 

As for the cost, one can pick up a 10-pack of disposable surgical masks in the local supermarket for a dollar.

[kairparavel]

Apologies if this was already shared at some point. This article from 2011 details the origins of invermectin and it's use in treating river blindness in developing nations as well lymphatic filariasis.

Two of the main arguments for not taking the free and widely available vaccine - I don't trust big pharma/ they're out for profit etc and I won't let pharma test out this unproven thing on my body...

JFC. Who do you think makes the dewormer in your local feed and seed, that you are paying for? But of course Tractor Supply isn't Walgreens so..And also, if you're taking this thing that has never been tested to treat a particular ailment, welcome to Phase I trials!

Ugh.

[Heartofice]

The argument for Ivermectin as far as I can tell is that it has been widely used for years, had a ton of research behind it to prove its safety, is low cost and yes, it’s the exact opposite of what the government is telling you to do. It was also reported to have almost miracle levels of effectiveness at preventing infection and symptomatic disease.

The real pull of the drug is that it’s being touted as this ‘secret the media don’t want you to know about’, because people trust some random with a YouTube channel over actual doctors.

I mean , I do understand that urge, the media has on the whole been really deceptive this entire pandemic, it’s handling of the lab leak hypothesis is really quite revealing.

Having said that, so much of the research behind Ivermectin and Covid appears to be really poor or outright fraudulent. The claims about its effectiveness are mostly based on one or two studies with serious problems in their methods. At this point there can be no defence of the drug or reason for using it over a vaccine. The evidence simply isn’t there.

And if raises the problem of information bubbles. Why don’t people know about the problems with Ivermectin research if they are so clued up about it? Why is it so difficult to address and answer peoples fears about brand new vaccines? 
 

Surely the list of questions people have are regular enough to answer in a clear way? Even the people promoting Ivermectin are rolling back now but why is it so hard to challenge them?

[HoodedCrow]

The FDA approves a medicine. It has been checked to see if it will kill you within a few months. It is supposed to show clinical effectiveness for something…highly selected. Once approved there is an idea that your doctor can prescribe that drug to you, however they deem best. The doctor does not have to be specialized in your area. The pharmacy reps talk up new drugs and “ off label” uses of drugs. The doctors may do it but they are supposed to inform you and you are supposed to make those decisions with “ your doctor”( if you have one). I don’t believe I have really had side effects fully explained to me, especially long term side effects, have you? That was in the before days. So, it scares me. Vaccines have a lot of eyes on them, however. Masking for an aerosolized illness seems like a no brainer. 

[Zorral]

Another Florida doctor announces she will no longer see/treat unvaccinated patients in person.  Telemedicine she will do, but she believes it's unfair to the other 85% patients in her practice and the practitioners and staff to allow willfully unvaccinated into the premises.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-florida-doctor-wont-treat-unvaccinated-in-person-20210906-zxolkyjfcngvplyx5u7fei3cua-story.html

~~~~~~~

Masks -- we have a variety of them.  We were sent some lovely cloth masks from CA early in the pandemic when masks of any sort couldn't be found here, and not online yet either.  But as soon as the surgical masks were available those were the choice.  Neither of us find cloth masks comfortable or well-fitting.  But we have so many sorts now, from more expensive and supposedly more effective for long-haul indoors, as in a airline terminal, or -- well, wherever.  The latest investigation into masks have yielded the best ones yet, and they are also disposable surgical masks, but made of 5 layers of different fibers.  Very comfortable, very snugly fitting and glasses never steam up -- well, we'll see about that when colder weather arrives. Hopefully they will do well in the classroom!

I wear a typical surgical mask on the street, then put on another over that when entering shops, stores, the library, places I'd be for only a short time.

Fresh ones every day.  Depending on how humid it is, more than once a day. Snip the bands and dispose of them.

[Week]

Hydroxychloroquine -- lather, rinse, repeat -- Ivermectin -- lather, rinse, repeat -- anti-vaxxing -- it's the same lies over again pushed by the same people. A drug with other known uses and widely available/cheap -- too good to be true! 

The "I don't understand why it's so hard to get through to people" juxtaposed with "well, the media and government have all been deceptive during the pandemic about this specific issue" is one of the problems. Painting the media as dishonest with a broad brush gives credence to the anti-science, anti-government, anti-media (excluding right-wing propaganda - Tucker et al).

There are absolutely stories that the media gets wrong and a lot of reasons why that is. Conflating all of that and reducing it to the media is "deceptive" is really counterproductive and, frankly, dumb. The media is fallible and frustrating -- and can also do it's job very well. We consistently ignore the latter.

[Zorral]

Once again:

Quote

 

This week, a group of scientists from Yale, Stanford, UC Berkeley, and other institutions published the final results of a randomized study of community-wide masking behavior in Bangladesh. The study encompassed roughly 350,000 people in 600 villages. The researchers randomly selected certain villages for an intervention that included giving out free masks, paying villagers to remind people to cover their face, and having village leaders and religious figures such as imams emphasize the importance of masks. The researchers also paid villagers to count properly worn masks in public places, including markets and mosques. To gather data on coronavirus transmission, the team asked about symptoms and conducted blood tests to determine who came down with COVID-19 over the course of the study.

Their conclusion? Masks work, period. Surgical masks are particularly effective at preventing coronavirus transmission. And community-wide mask wearing is excellent at protecting older people, who are at much higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/masks-were-working-all-along/619989/

Also, if your cloth mask -- or even surgical mask -- is dirty, only yourself is responsible -- unless you're a child, of course.
 

[Altherion]

42 minutes ago, Week said:

There are absolutely stories that the media gets wrong and a lot of reasons why that is. Conflating all of that and reducing it to the media is "deceptive" is really counterproductive and, frankly, dumb. The media is fallible and frustrating -- and can also do it's job very well. We consistently ignore the latter.

We consistently ignore the latter because it does not help that it is right some of the time because we have a hard time guessing when it's wrong and when it's right. Nobody is perfect and people would understand if the media would very rarely get something wrong (and even more rarely for something that matters). However, the media and the institutions they quote are way, way beyond any reasonably tolerance on that. I have relatives who are staunch Democrats and other relatives who are Trump supports and a third set who are mostly apolitical. One of the few things they all agree on is that none of them trusts the media or the CDC where the coronavirus is concerned -- the conclusions they draw from this are very different, but the lack of trust is shared.

[Week]

If you're guessing when the media is right or not then you're doing it wrong. Critical reading, cross-checking sources, and a functional memory of history and historical context -- a grain of salt, at times, -- is not a difficult endeavor and is required for a functional society.

Throwing up your hands and 'guessing' - in which case, you're more likely to assume it's all false or deceptive - is punting responsibility. Lazy and insulting to journalists who do take their job and integrity seriously. The medias' flaws and strengths, such that they are, should be more widely discussed and analyzed. Unfettered capitalism/digital transformation and right-wing propaganda networks (Fox News, OANN, etc.) have corrupted parts of a critical institution for public society -- none of that excuses continued distrust of masking, vaccinations, or the reality of COVID.

[Padraig]

44 minutes ago, Altherion said:

We consistently ignore the latter because it does not help that it is right some of the time because we have a hard time guessing when it's wrong and when it's right. Nobody is perfect and people would understand if the media would very rarely get something wrong (and even more rarely for something that matters). However, the media and the institutions they quote are way, way beyond any reasonably tolerance on that. I have relatives who are staunch Democrats and other relatives who are Trump supports and a third set who are mostly apolitical. One of the few things they all agree on is that none of them trusts the media or the CDC where the coronavirus is concerned -- the conclusions they draw from this are very different, but the lack of trust is shared.

What did the CDC do that was so bad?  And is it bad because of incompetence, political interference, poor messaging or constantly evolving situation?  And is there a good alternative to the CDC?

I think as a society, way too many people have been trained to get their news from social media.  That news is designed to suit their political leanings.  Overcoming that is difficult.  Clearer messages may help a little but I don't believe its the game-changer.

[HoodedCrow]

It also helps to have a functional understanding of science, research design, and statistics. Most people don’t! Thus if you say you have a one in 100,000 chance of dying from a rare side effect, or  protecting  you and your loved ones ( or random stranger) by increasing your odds of surviving a deadly disease by a high margin, it is highly suggestive of a decision. It’s not my fault the headlines are almost always not properly qualified because…boring. Scientific journals can be misleading. Bah.

 

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

What did the CDC do that was so bad?  And is it bad because of incompetence, political interference, poor messaging or constantly evolving situation?  And is there a good alternative to the CDC?

It's a mix of all of those and no, there is no good alternative. It started with the bad advice on masks (in March 2020, we were told that the only people who should wear masks are healthcare workers) and a misunderstanding of transmission via surfaces. More recently, they advised more complete re-opening just as it was obvious that the delta variant was about to arrive (thus leading to the current wave). They're also dragging their feet on the vaccine boosters when it seems pretty clear that a third shot is required to avoid what is happening in Israel. And of course the conservatives are angry about the flagrant overreach and effective commandeering of private property of the eviction moratorium.

Basically, they were wrong a whole lot and managed to annoy pretty much everyone.

[Zorral]

24 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Basically, they were wrong a whole lot and managed to annoy pretty much everyone.

Let's do some what aboutism, why don't we?  What about all the deliberate lies told -- starting in February 2020, by shoggoth the previous, his ilk$, cronie$,  minion$, kool aid drinker$ etc. knowingly and deliberately to make money and to kill people -- which lies continue to be told by them to this very day -- to raise the infection, hospitalization and death numbers higher and higher every frakin' day and week.

That at the beginning particularly, when nobody knew anything about covid, and the CDC was literally hamstrung and thwarted for doing anything useful at all by shoggoth the previous, that it got things wrong and mistaken, OK.  However, and this is a huge however, it didn't make more people sick.  What they advised, including all the cleaning of the groceries etc, DID NOT MAKE US SICK, or MAKE MORE PEOPLE SICK.  Whenever they learned anything more specific or it needed to be corrected they did.  BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE: THE CDC DID NOT MAKE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICAN MORE SICK FROM COVID. 

How long are you going keep beating that poor, badly shod and maintained of a CDC horse for advising not wearing masks -- until the medical people and others on the front lines working f2f with sick and dying people from covid?  How frackin' long?

I pay attention to everything.  I use such intelligence as was birthed me to assess everything.  I tend to follow advisories, particularly about staying away from other people as much as possible, particularly indoors, and wear a mask indoors, etc.  THIS DOES NOT MAKE ME or ANYBODY ELSE SICK.  It hurts nobody.  What hurts people is going indoors without a mask and breathing on the people who have to work to provide your beer, sox, burgers and toilet paper. 

Beating that beat up drum, over and over and over about what a lousy job the CDC does with everything -- when everything they tell us does not make us sick -- is tiresome in the way ye olden days' stuck records were tiresome.  How have some people got so stuck in this groove, from nearly two years ago already, and just won't extricate themselves from it, who knows?  Time for a new beat, yanno?  This one's so retro.

 

[HoodedCrow]

The CDC did not cause this pandemic. My DH just told me about a “ study” that was supposed to come from The World Republican, something like that, that claims that the vaccines have a huge drop to n efficacy and none of the scientists are recognizable and the source of the information was said to be from India. It’s been pulled.