Covid-19 #41: Collateral Damage

[Paxter]

The "running out of fuel" argument is plausible to me, if depressing. 

Looking at Florida, for example, only 60% of the state is fully vaccinated but they ran a huge caseload in 2020 and throughout the summer of 2021. They now have the lowest caseload of any state (around 70 daily cases / million people). Maybe the fuel has run out? Or maybe they are just about to embark on another huge increase in cases. 

[RhaenysBee]

13 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Eating animals got us into this mess I believe.

With all due respect, I do not. 

[Kalbear]

24 minutes ago, Paxter said:

The "running out of fuel" argument is plausible to me, if depressing. 

Looking at Florida, for example, only 60% of the state is fully vaccinated but they ran a huge caseload in 2020 and throughout the summer of 2021. They now have the lowest caseload of any state (around 70 daily cases / million people). Maybe the fuel has run out? Or maybe they are just about to embark on another huge increase in cases. 

They're fucking lying. 

[Paxter]

17 minutes ago, Kalsandra said:

They're fucking lying. 

Underreporting cases or people just not getting tested? 

[Luzifer's right hand]

39 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

With all due respect, I do not. 

The meat market origin was still the most likely the last time I looked with the lab accident theory second.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Or maybe they are just about to embark on another huge increase in cases. 

The snowbirds are coming on down to get into their sunny time share condos, winter homes etc.  There are millions of them, and a lot of them are from the northern Rocky and midwestern states where vaxxing and  masking are, shall we say unpopular, quite like Bavaria, for instance.

[Paxter]

12 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The snowbirds are coming on down to get into their sunny time share condos, winter homes etc.  There are millions of them, and a lot of them are from the northern Rocky and midwestern states where vaxxing and  masking are, shall we say unpopular, quite like Bavaria, for instance.

They’ll fit right in then…

[Kalbear]

50 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Underreporting cases or people just not getting tested? 

We already know Florida has been underreporting cases thanks to a prior whistleblower, and that is almost certainly continued. In addition to that it's very likely that they're not testing that much. I'm not even sure we can reasonably trust their ratio of testing to infected. 

Really, the only thing I would trust from Florida right now is their hospitalization/death rate, and even that is suspect.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, Paxter said:

The "running out of fuel" argument is plausible to me, if depressing. 

I wonder will we ever get a really good model for COVID-19 cases.  But there does seem to be too many factors involved.  And a lack of consistent reporting probably doesn't help either.  If Delta never emerged, how much better would things be?

But we can say it comes in waves.  What starts the next wave is unclear.  Although climate seems to be a factor.

I am reluctantly supportive of boosters now.  Given the fragile state in many Western countries, governments had little choice but to give boosters.  At least, most have limited it to the older population (for now).  Its another terrible situation though, given places like Uganda.  Still, Europe is the centre of COVID-19 right at the moment (for deaths and cases).  Although other regions are probably under-reporting.

The most terrifying thing now is if cases start going up in Israel again (given cases have reduced in line with its large booster program).  Then we know we can all look forward to another wave after this one!

Thankfully, not happening yet.

[The Anti-Targ]

6 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Eating animals got us into this mess I believe.

 

6 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

With all due respect, I do not. 

A gross oversimplification, but still a plausible origin. If you are going to study bat coronaviruses in China then it makes a lot of sense to put a lab close to where there is a large population of bats. So the natural emergence of a new human coronavirus in a location where there is a lab studying bat coronaviruses is not at all surprising. I think the origin will never be confirmed, which means people will be left to believe whatever narrative they want to be the truth, and no one is going to be able to prove you wrong.

Geopolitically I think it is best to not paint China as an evil antagonist who committed an act of global biological warfare. Extra-ordinary claims require extra-ordinary evidence and all that. Which leaves unintended lab accident (which is not a problem unique to China) or natural origin. Either way it doesn't do anyone much good to go around blaming China for causing the pandemic. Where we are today is as much the fault of govts who(m?) are not China that took too much of a laissez-faire attitude, or just flat out denial and antagonism to scientific and medical advice, to dealing with the pandemic within their own borders.

Just got an email from the head of our ministry proposing a policy that from 22 Dec everyone entering a ministry building or any staff visiting external sites will need to be vaxed. Given our ministry is 98% vaxed already I don't see a large number of people objecting. The effect it will have is on non-staff entering ministry properties, this should actually drive a bit of vaccination among companies that contract services with us, esp cleaning and maintenance companies who might have a somewhat lower vax rate among their staff.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Totally unenforceable lockdown for the unvaccinated starts on Monday in my state of Austria.

I expect a general lockdown again in two weeks or so because lockdowns without actually closing stuff will never work.

[BigFatCoward]

28 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Totally unenforceable lockdown for the unvaccinated starts on Monday in my state of Austria.

I expect a general lockdown again in two weeks or so because lockdowns without actually closing stuff will never work.

Is the point of this not just to get the vaccination rate up, rather than actually enforcing the lockdown? 

[Luzifer's right hand]

19 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Is the point of this not just to get the vaccination rate up, rather than actually enforcing the lockdown? 

It is not working because people know that nothing is being enforced from the lockdown light phases were everything was open we had. We actually had a 3G rule (Gempift/Genesen/Getestet) rule for a while now(vaccinated/recovered/tested) rule for most things which was already pretty close to a lockdown for the unvaccinated already and people know that there is next to no enforcement.

The vaccinated folks I know are kinda doing their own lockdowns right now by only going to work and shopping in my state but those that are not vaccinated yet don't give a shit at all. 

Edit: I think most of guys can't imagine the split in our society. Those from eastern Europe and the south of the USA can I suspect there it is even worse. Vienna is doing far better than the rest of Austria and the other left controlled cities too. The only right wing controlled city in my state has the worst vaccination rate. It is a pandemic of the right in many ways here too but as our healthcare system is partially collapsing(at least when it comes to planned heart and tumor surgeries) a lot of other people get hurt too. 

But as even people here on the board that I respect feel that postponing such surgeries is the more ethical option than there really is no hope to convince others. 

[Loge]

11 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Eating animals got us into this mess I believe.

It's more probable that wearing fur did. Christian Drosten believes that the virus was transmitted by raccoon dogs, which are hunted for their fur.

[RhaenysBee]

2 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Totally unenforceable lockdown for the unvaccinated starts on Monday in my state of Austria.

I expect a general lockdown again in two weeks or so because lockdowns without actually closing stuff will never work.

Well, I’ll be curious to read about how that works out for you. I have been waiting and waiting for a lockdown for the unvaccinated, and I suppose it’s not coming because there’s no way to actually enforce it. Also, I think we have taken the laissez fairs route. Which I get, even though I wish we had a stricter approach. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

56 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Well, I’ll be curious to read about how that works out for you. I have been waiting and waiting for a lockdown for the unvaccinated, and I suppose it’s not coming because there’s no way to actually enforce it. Also, I think we have taken the laissez fairs route. Which I get, even though I wish we had a stricter approach. 

Austria wastes enough police that focuses on drugs and migrants to do a little bit of enforcement if they get their priorities straight. But our police is a far right organisation has not interest in actually enforcing covid rules. 

During one of the last waves the police command of my state collapsed because they had a 50 % infection rate and a 100 % of the people there under 35 were infected but very few of the older staff who followed rules for personal reasons. They are not on our(or my side). Emergency calls were handled by the police command of another state during that time. 

Edit: The head of the police union admitted publicly yesterday that they won't enforce the rules. The rule of law has broken down when it comes to covid I think. But that should have been clear last year when they started walking with anti-measure protests and attacked counter protests.  

[RhaenysBee]

1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Austria wastes enough police that focuses on drugs and migrants to do a little bit of enforcement if they get their priorities straight. But our police is a far right organisation has not interest in actually enforcing covid rules. 

During one of the last waves the police command of my state collapsed because they had a 50 % infection rate and a 100 % of the people there under 35 were infected but very few of the older staff who followed rules for personal reasons. They are not on our(or my side). Emergency calls were handled by the police command of another state during that time. 

Edit: The head of the police union admitted publicly yesterday that they won't enforce the rules. The rule of law has broken down when it comes to covid I think. But that should have been clear last year when they started walking with anti-measure protests and attacked counter protests.  

Politicizing these issues is part of the problem. Not that any country has been immune to that pandemic. Either way, it’s unfortunate that your police is unable to enforce the lockdown. I do hope covid stats will change for the better and lockdown or not, you’ll be past the peak soon. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

13 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Politicizing these issues is part of the problem. Not that any country has been immune to that pandemic. Either way, it’s unfortunate that your police is unable to enforce the lockdown. I do hope covid stats will change for the better and lockdown or not, you’ll be past the peak soon. 

Portugal has been immune enough for some reason.

[The Anti-Targ]

28 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Politicizing these issues is part of the problem. Not that any country has been immune to that pandemic. Either way, it’s unfortunate that your police is unable to enforce the lockdown. I do hope covid stats will change for the better and lockdown or not, you’ll be past the peak soon. 

 

15 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Portugal has been immune enough for some reason.

So have we been pretty immune, and I believe Australia. Very early on a few people in opposition who are right wing decided lockdowns were a bad idea and would wreck the economy. Then they saw infections and deaths blow up in many countries with lax or no lockdowns and they knew there was no political mileage to be gained by opposing lockdowns here, especially when we managed to eliminate the virus completely in a relatively short space of time and become an isolated enclave of relative normality. Now with vaccines every political party is strongly in favour of promoting high levels of vaccination, and agrees with or at least goes along with no jab-no job for health, education and border workers. There has been opposition by fringe political movements all the way along, but they are so out of the political mainstream that it doesn't create any meaningful partisan divide in the country.

 

[JoannaL]

It will be very interesting if high-vaccinated countries will be able to evade the next wave.

also, I think there is this far-off, sunlit other side. Perhaps some of the careless countries, with higher infection rates,  like UK, or Florida? will reach it as well soon. In the end immunization by infection will be better anyway. Some known virologist here said, that a yearly infection of everyone (like with the normal cold) will get us back on track to a normal life. The same virologist also strongly emphasized that if you meet the coronavirus in the end , you should definitly be vaccinated beforehand. So because about 15 mio idiots here dont get it, ours will not be a country on the other side soon.