Covid 19 #43: Oh Omicron, oh Omicron, how numerous are thy spike proteins.

[mormont]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's natural for those who've done everything right to feel increasingly resentful towards those who are unvaccinated by choice and are flouting the safety protocols. 

Sure, but there's a big distance between feeling resentful (which I do) and saying that we should make public policy on the basis of ignoring their welfare because fuck them, they can just die. The latter is morally awful and also terrible public policy.

2 hours ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

There isn't an easy way out of this at this point, to simply hope these un-vaccinated folk die off sooner or later...

Here's the thing: we have to accept that most of them won't. They'll get COVID, they'll probably get it multiple times in multiple strains, and they'll survive. But in doing so, they'll keep the virus in circulation.

We have good vaccination numbers in many countries, but we're not at herd immunity levels where the population can tolerate a certain number of unvaccinated people because their exposure to the virus will be rare.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

41 minutes ago, mormont said:

Sure, but there's a big distance between feeling resentful (which I do) and saying that we should make public policy on the basis of ignoring their welfare because fuck them, they can just die. The latter is morally awful and also terrible public policy.

Here's the tricky thing though, at least in the US, their actions are ignoring the welfare of others and the politicians they back are enacting policies that ignore and sometimes downright endanger the public writ large. Keep in mind a majority of Republicans and around a third of the total adult population are saying fuck vaccines, masks, science, social distancing, civic duty etc. So while MZ is right that we need to strive to be kind to others and ourselves, it's really hard to treat these specific people with kindness. I'm not hoping that they die, but I do think they need to be ostracized through public policy if they continue to refuse to get vaccinated and do the bare minimum to beat Covid back to the best of our ability. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Here's the tricky thing though, at least in the US, their actions are ignoring the welfare of others and the politicians they back are enacting policies that ignore and sometimes downright endanger the public writ large. Keep in mind a majority of Republicans and around a third of the total adult population are saying fuck vaccines, masks, science, social distancing, civic duty etc. So while MZ is right that we need to strive to be kind to others and ourselves, it's really hard to treat these specific people with kindness. I'm not hoping that they die, but I do think they need to be ostracized through public policy if they continue to refuse to get vaccinated and do the bare minimum to beat Covid back to the best of our ability. 

I think the people who aren't complying are less of an issue than the complete lack of consistent leadership and messaging we've seen on this issues. We've circled back completely to the "those aren't the states ventilators, those are federal ventilators" to "there is no federal solution for covid, the states are going to have to do it themselves".  

 

[Zorral]

Here, where we live, Omicron is literally shutting down the city -- not the politicos, and leaders, officials are shutting it down as an attempt to contain, for the sake of public health --  the disease is shutting us down.  EMS staff and drivers are out; teachers are out; restaurant workers are out; retail workers -- including OF COURSE at the all essential supermarkets -- are out -- libraries are out.

"Covid Live Updates: New York City Struggles to Keep Running Under Omicron"

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/29/world/omicron-covid-vaccine-tests#new-york-city-is-being-pummeled-by-omicron

 

 

[Jaxom 1974]

5 minutes ago, Lermo T.I. Krrrammpus said:

I think the people who aren't complying are less of an issue than the complete lack of consistent leadership and messaging we've seen on this issues. We've circled back completely to the "those aren't the states ventilators, those are federal ventilators" to "there is no federal solution for covid, the states are going to have to do it themselves".  

 

Pretty much all of these people who aren't complying are doing so because the "leadership" in place here in the States deliberately skewed the message from the get go. All with the intent to maintain power.  It backfired on them, and now that the monster is loose, no one can control it, messaging be damned...

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, Lermo T.I. Krrrammpus said:

I think the people who aren't complying are less of an issue than the complete lack of consistent leadership and messaging we've seen on this issues. We've circled back completely to the "those aren't the states ventilators, those are federal ventilators" to "there is no federal solution for covid, the states are going to have to do it themselves".  

 

It's hard to have a consistent message when you're shooting blind and a moving target while also knowing you have to soften whatever message you come up with. I don't envy the position Biden or the CDC are in. That said yes, they're not doing a great job, and I think a big reason why is they're afraid that if they advocate for the stricter measures they'll poll even worse.

[Larry of the Lawn]

15 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's hard to have a consistent message when you're shooting blind and a moving target while also knowing you have to soften whatever message you come up with. I don't envy the position Biden or the CDC are in. That said yes, they're not doing a great job, and I think a big reason why is they're afraid that if they advocate for the stricter measures they'll poll even worse.

I'm not talking about adapting to new information.  I'm talking about them doing the opposite of what he ran on.  No IP waivers.  Abandoning masking this summer.  Putting the economy and 'normalcy' over public health.  Putting public health on back burner to your approval ratings.  

Eta; and apologies if this is veering into US Politics more than covid stuff, so I'll drop it after this, but even with 1000 dying everyday in the US, just like last year, there is zero talk or effort to give people any kind of support.  Getting rapid testing out in January instead of before the holidays.  No ui benefits.  No coherent national masking or distancing strategy.  The only strategy seems to be anything to keep schools opens and people at work, of people continue to die oh fucking well. 

[Zorral]

The governor announced tonight that NYC alone had nearly 40,000 new cases reported TODAY.

Subways, testing sites, everything shutting down, PEOPLE ARE SICK.

But NYC's new mayor expects to be sworn in at the Times Square Ball Drop.  These guys aren't DOING A GODDAMNED THING to contain, fix, help.

They won't even cancel the gdd ball drop.  Sheeshus H. !!!!!!!!

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Lermo T.I. Krrrammpus said:

I'm not talking about adapting to new information.  I'm talking about them doing the opposite of what he ran on.  No IP waivers.  Abandoning masking this summer.  Putting the economy and 'normalcy' over public health.  Putting public health on back burner to your approval ratings.  

My rebuttal.

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The governor announced tonight that NYC alone had nearly 40,000 new cases reported TODAY.

Subways, testing sites, everything shutting down, PEOPLE ARE SICK.

But NYC's new mayor expects to be sworn in at the Times Square Ball Drop.  These guys aren't DOING A GODDAMNED THING to contain, fix, help.

They won't even cancel the gdd ball drop.  Sheeshus H. !!!!!!!!

 

"But NYC will not shut down again!" 

-so sayeth your mayor a week ago

 

And one of the biggest party holidays of the year is two days away as cases spike and restrictions ease. What could ever go wrong?

[Jaxom 1974]

33 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's hard to have a consistent message when you're shooting blind and a moving target while also knowing you have to soften whatever message you come up with. I don't envy the position Biden or the CDC are in. That said yes, they're not doing a great job, and I think a big reason why is they're afraid that if they advocate for the stricter measures they'll poll even worse.

If the threat of authoruatism wasn't so prevalent the current administration might be less inclined to worry about the polling...which is and of itself also a condemnation of where this country is at...

[Zorral]

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And one of the biggest party holidays of the year is two days away as cases spike and restrictions ease. What could ever go wrong?

Who could have foreseen this?  Their favorite, it's not ME! who should be blamed.

[Fury Resurrected]

10 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

1.  I have had good luck at Walmart.com.  It has been my most reliable source - earlier this month I was able to get Binax now for $14/2 test kit.  Everything is obviously backed up now.

2.  You are absolutely 1,000% right.  The number of people I know right now with asymptomatic infections in NYC is staggering.  They tested because they were notified of an exposure, and then boom, found out they were positive.  They would have had NO IDEA that they were a carrier without a test.  On the one hand, this shows that Omicron (because it is very likely to be omicron) is incredibly contagious.  It also shows that vaccines do, in fact work!  (This is a highly vaccinated, self-selecting subset).  But if we had good access to testing, I bet a bunch more positives would pop up.

3.  This is why I am thinking absent a full PRC-style lockdown, I do not see how we do anything at this point, at least in major metro areas, other than tap the brakes a little, and frankly, I think it’s probably too late to tap the brakes, at least in NYC.  It’s going to be a bad two weeks.  That’s not giving up - it’s just facing facts.

Honestly, I think we should be sending cases of tests to every address and passing them out like planned parenthood throws condoms around. I think most people would use them if they just showed up

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

21 minutes ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Honestly, I think we should be sending cases of tests to every address and passing them out like planned parenthood throws condoms around. I think most people would use them if they just showed up

Where's the support to pay for that? Right now it looks like we're getting a one time 500m delivery that will arive sometime in the next few weeks and then after that? 

Team Biden be like 

[mcbigski]

I'm still in a fair amount of shock over 12 hours later after hearing the news.

Apparently Ned Lamont, my fine state's governor, said in a press conference yesterday that Connecticut is not going back to a mask mandate because it doesn't seem to be making a difference in New York.  What's the opposite of shame?  Though from I what I recall, he followed the Fauci weathervane on masks last year, so who knows?  

He slavishly followed Cuomo's lead last year such that CT, were it its own country would have had the highest death rate in the world. Take that Peru!  (Or possibly it was Colombia, been a year or more since I last looked)  (Tho still behind NJ and NY at that point too fwiw.  We only moderately seeded our nursing homes apparently.)

I suspect the polling is absolutely dreadful for the centralized control folks.

[BigFatCoward]

3 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Honestly, I think we should be sending cases of tests to every address and passing them out like planned parenthood throws condoms around. I think most people would use them if they just showed up

We just go online and get 7 delivered the next day (at least until everyone wanted to test over christmas).

I've literally done atleast 3 tests a week at no cost for about 18 months. I assumed every western country had something similar. I hate to think how out of control covid would have gotten if people had to pay. 

[Fury Resurrected]

1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

We just go online and get 7 delivered the next day (at least until everyone wanted to test over christmas).

I've literally done atleast 3 tests a week at no cost for about 18 months. I assumed every western country had something similar. I hate to think how out of control covid would have gotten if people had to pay. 

Here if you want to test for free in most states that means going somewhere, not home tests. You can request home tests from the state health department but those will take a week or more to arrive so not very useful as of yet. Going to one of the testing sites is fine if you’re not working, but not so fine if you are and are trying to use it to do so safely since there aren’t a lot of them and they require waiting in line there. For that reason, the only practical solution for people in my position is to buy them or not test and most people fall to the side of not testing. But hey, we just approved an INCREASE in the military budget despite leaving Afghanistan so we can all feel safe, right?

[RhaenysBee]

So how are vaccines holding up against omicron where it’s already hit? 
 

here it’s too early to tell if we are seeing the Christmas party surge or the standard testing after a significant drop throughout Christmas or omicron. We had 1300 new cases on Tuesday and 3000+ on Wednesday and today. Now the 1300 was from 4500 tests ( yes you read that right, on December 27 this entire country ran 4500 pcr tests in total), and the 3000+ cases are from days with 12000, 17000 PCRs respectively. So you can’t actually say that the ratio of positive cases is surging. It’s just that literally nobody got covid tests during Christmas and now they are getting them again either for travel reasons or falling ill after Christmas parties I assume.
 

So we have no way of knowing how widespread omicron already is here. Really what I anticipate is moderately small surge in case numbers - because people don’t get tested, and they will be even less likely to get covid tests if the news are true and omicron mostly shows itself as common cold without the severe cough, high fever or the infamous loss of taste and smell. We will however see a brutal mortality rate because low case count/severely ill people dying equals a brutal mortality rate. But it’s allllllllllll fine because we have 9.5 million doses of vaccines nobody wants to take and elections in April

[Spockydog]

Is the UK alone in the unavailability of lateral flow tests? Can't get one for love nor money. What's it like around the world?

[mormont]

I ordered a pack online literally just now. 

[Spockydog]

3 minutes ago, mormont said:

I ordered a pack online literally just now. 

Where from? 

ETA: Fantastic. Just successfully ordered a pack from nhs.gov.uk. Get 'em while they're hot!