Covid 19 #43: Oh Omicron, oh Omicron, how numerous are thy spike proteins.

[Fragile Bird]

No test kits available around here in Ontario. The demand for Christmas was so heavy they ran out.

[Padraig]

14 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Well if we take the UK for example, most people who are hospitalised are vaccinated.

The first question is "what is the problem you are trying to solve"?  If it comes down to something like "reduce fatalities" or "reduce the number of people in hospital" then vaccination is still the biggest factor still in play.  Sure, more people in hospitals have been vaccinated but even if the unvaccinated only make up 35% of those in hospitals (and it would be higher in a country like the US, with lower levels of vaccination), that is a lot of headroom you'd have potentially freed up if they had been vaccinated.

If the problem is "reduce spead" then vaccination is not as significant a factor anymore, due to Omicron.  That doesn't mean it isn't a factor though.  Every little bit helps.  And most people would view the fatality metric as more important anyhow.

8 hours ago, mcbigski said:

Apparently Ned Lamont, my fine state's governor, said in a press conference yesterday that Connecticut is not going back to a mask mandate because it doesn't seem to be making a difference in New York. 

This is the same thing.  Mask mandates were never going to solve COVID.  But isn't even a 5-10% reduction worth it?  (And I have no idea how to quantify the impact).  For near minimum discomfort?

In all these discussions, we often seem to forget what we are trying to achieve.

I live in a country that is pretty compliant to the restrictions that exist.  I can only imagine the frustration if I lived in a country with restrictions but little attempt to apply them.

This news slipped by earlier in the month...

Quote

 

Pfizer said Friday it was changing plans and testing three doses of its Covid-19 vaccine in babies and preschoolers instead of the usual two.

The addition of an extra dose came after a preliminary analysis found two- to four-year-olds didn’t have as strong an immune response as expected to special low-dose shots.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/17/pfizer-study-tests-extra-covid-vaccine-dose-for-kids-under-5.html

This delays approval for those under 5, as Pfizer needs to adapt (originally initial results were expected at the end of December).  Surprising.  Possibly due to the very small dose.  I don't believe this is a particularly important group to vaccinate but happy to be told otherwise!

[A wilding]

In our part of the world the pharmacists are all out of test kits, but the local councils have combined with the NHS to set up places you can collect them from. We got some more yesterday.

[Spockydog]

5 minutes ago, A wilding said:

In our part of the world the pharmacists are all out of test kits

Same here. Tried four local chemists, to no avail. That's why I was surprised to be able to get them online.

[The Anti-Targ]

Has the combination of vaccination and natural infection finally broken the back of COVID-19? Worldwide daily cases are skyrocketing, but daily deaths are trending downwards. Case numbers have been climbing globally since 14 October, while deaths went up slightly after that day, steadied off and then started declining from 12 Dec to now. Could it be that we have finally decoupled deaths from case numbers?

[Fragile Bird]

I just saw the US had 488,000 cases yesterday, about twice as many as the peak earlier this year.

[Week]

15 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Well if we take the UK for example, most people who are hospitalised are vaccinated. This is not surprising because vaccination rates are so high here. That’s my point, we’ve moved past the point of blaming the unvaccinated for causing problems, it’s really not all that relevant now. As more countries get vaccinated you will see this more and more. 

https://fullfact.org/health/economist-vaccination-status/

 

6 months old and not the experience of everywhere - https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/13/nation/mass-rise-covid-19-hospitalizations-is-driven-by-those-who-are-unvaccinated-baker-says/

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

36 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just saw the US had 488,000 cases yesterday, about twice as many as the peak earlier this year.

And keep in mind there's probably a huge backlog plus the holiday surge is only beginning to be accounted for. Expect big numbers for the next few weeks. 

Freedumb isn't free! 

[Loge]

1 hour ago, Spockydog said:

Is the UK alone in the unavailability of lateral flow tests? Can't get one for love nor money. What's it like around the world?

There's definitely shortage. Not as bad as a few weeks ago but still. Last couple of times I looked they had some in store, but there's a limit on the number you can buy.

There are some ways to get tests for free but generally not for home use. I think you are entitled to one free test a week, but you have to go to some authorised place, like a pharmacy. Work is supposed to give you as many kits as are required to fulfil regulations, which was one test a week for vaccinated people last time I checked. I guess schools hand them out for kids, too. But no such thing as order them online and get free delivery.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

10 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Honestly, I think we should be sending cases of tests to every address and passing them out like planned parenthood throws condoms around. I think most people would use them if they just showed up

I like what I’m hearing about the UK system, frankly.  However, the idea that could actually happen here is laughable.  Maybe certain states?  Of course where the test kits are coming from is also mysterious.  Mind you, there are private clinics where you can still go in NYC and have a timed appointment for a PCR at $250-$350 a pop.  Results back in 4 hours.  Hah hah hah.  Hah hah hah.  Hahahahahahahahah.  Sorry.  Got distracted with hysterical laughter there for a second.  

On mask mandates, I think they probably make sense (currently) for places like schools and workplaces. For places like restaurants they were always performative and are especially performative for this variant.  

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Has the combination of vaccination and natural infection finally broken the back of COVID-19? Worldwide daily cases are skyrocketing, but daily deaths are trending downwards. Case numbers have been climbing globally since 14 October, while deaths went up slightly after that day, steadied off and then started declining from 12 Dec to now. Could it be that we have finally decoupled deaths from case numbers?

I doubt it will break the link completely, but the data is certainly looking promising so far in respect of this particular variant. South Africa, for example, is reporting very low fatalities compared to previous case surges. Still too early to make a call though I think.

Also, it’s worth noting that the caseload data is nothing more than indicative at this point in many countries. Testing infrastructure is not coping.

[Zorral]

We admit we must learn to live with covid. But --

Quote

“The unvaccinated are making that impossible.”

The same group of anti-America fascist covidiots that are making having a functioning democracy impossible.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/30/americans-should-be-learning-live-with-covid-19-unvaccinated-are-making-that-impossible/

[RhaenysBee]

2 hours ago, Spockydog said:

Is the UK alone in the unavailability of lateral flow tests? Can't get one for love nor money. What's it like around the world?

I haven’t experienced an issue with this here but that’s probably because people in Hungary just won’t get tested, for love or money. My hometown (1500ish residents) pharmacy had full stock of all covid tests on December 23, I made my mum buy one for the case of an emergency. 

[Heartofice]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

The first question is "what is the problem you are trying to solve"?  If it comes down to something like "reduce fatalities" or "reduce the number of people in hospital" then vaccination is still the biggest factor still in play.  Sure, more people in hospitals have been vaccinated but even if the unvaccinated only make up 35% of those in hospitals (and it would be higher in a country like the US, with lower levels of vaccination), that is a lot of headroom you'd have potentially freed up if they had been vaccinated.

If the problem is "reduce spead" then vaccination is not as significant a factor anymore, due to Omicron.  That doesn't mean it isn't a factor though.  Every little bit helps.  And most people would view the fatality metric as more important anyhow.

I get your point. When you have high levels of vaccination in the country, as well as a high percentage of people with previous infection, then concentrating on demonising the unvaccinated becomes more futile and nothing more than vindictive, and is really just a distraction to make people feel better.
The point is still to vaccinate the people who need the vaccines the most, and now to boost them because the vaccines don't work so well, and the to boost them again in 2 months time. The virus is still worse for older people, those with health issues etc, and so it should always be about protecting those people as much as possible. 
Vaccinating people as a method of reducing spread really doesn't seem to be particularly effective, as you can see from the current wave. 
Anyway, there are obviously countries where trying to convince more people to get vaccinated makes sense, where there are high level of vaccine hesitancy. However, the current wave is showing that vaccination is not a protecting from spreading the disease, and trying to divide people up by who is safe to be around and who isn't, by their vaccination status doesn't really seem to be work. 

 

1 hour ago, Week said:

6 months old and not the experience of everywhere

You say 6 months old like it's an important point? It's like you haven't read the article at all. Its relevant to call out the UK as a country with relatively high vaccination status, probably the highest level of boosters on the planet, to show that as countries become more vaccinated the shift towards a majority of people in hospitals being vaccinated is a simple consequence of so many people being vaccinated and because even vaccinated people can get sick, especially as older people tend to be vaccinated.


Its also worth noting that the UK has probably had the highest levels of testing in the world recently, which might go some way to explaining why we are running out of tests! 
 

[Week]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

You say 6 months old like it's an important point? It's like you haven't read the article at all. Its relevant to call out the UK as a country with relatively high vaccination status, probably the highest level of boosters on the planet, to show that as countries become more vaccinated the shift towards a majority of people in hospitals being vaccinated is a simple consequence of so many people being vaccinated and because even vaccinated people can get sick, especially as older people tend to be vaccinated.

The current hospitalization rate of the unvaccinated should be relatively standard no matter where cases are -- other than areas that have a large population that have already had the disease (UK and other areas that did poorly last year). The percentage of vaccinated v. unvaccinated COVID cases in the hospital from 6 months ago in the UK is not at all germane to the current conversation. Particularly not relevant regarding the damage to health care systems, particularly in America, due to extremely high numbers of unvaccinated in the hospital. 

How many omicron cases were included in the article that you so helpfully supplied? 

[Heartofice]

19 minutes ago, Week said:

The current hospitalization rate of the unvaccinated should be relatively standard no matter where cases are -- other than areas that have a large population that have already had the disease (UK and other areas that did poorly last year). The percentage of vaccinated v. unvaccinated COVID cases in the hospital from 6 months ago in the UK is not at all germane to the current conversation. Particularly not relevant regarding the damage to health care systems, particularly in America, due to extremely high numbers of unvaccinated in the hospital. 

How many omicron cases were included in the article that you so helpfully supplied? 

It’s not 6 months ago for a start. The data is from mid October. You didn’t read it clearly. 

If you look at the chart you’ll see that over time the percentage of people admitted to hospital who were vaccinated has been going up. There are really obvious reasons why this is the case that I’m sure I don’t need to explain to you.

As for Omicron, we don’t know yet but there isn’t really much reason why the trend would be much different, unless you don’t understand the reason for the trend in the first place 

[Week]

8 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

It’s not 6 months ago for a start. The data is from mid October. You didn’t read it clearly. 

If you look at the chart you’ll see that over time the percentage of people admitted to hospital who were vaccinated has been going up. There are really obvious reasons why this is the case that I’m sure I don’t need to explain to you.

As for Omicron, we don’t know yet but there isn’t really much reason why the trend would be much different, unless you don’t understand the reason for the trend in the first place 

The percentage of people admitted to the hospital is not the rate of hospitalization for the unvaccinated -- that is a completely different metric that is relevant only to a specific area and not broadly relevant.

Your pull quote was from June -- which last I checked is 6 months ago. Some data in the article is only 3 months old. Mea culpa. Still, not relevant to the conversation at hand -- unless you are having one with yourself. Which you seem to be. I'll leave you to it.

[Heartofice]

6 minutes ago, Week said:

The percentage of people admitted to the hospital is not the rate of hospitalization for the unvaccinated -- that is a completely different metric that is relevant only to a specific area and not broadly relevant.

Your pull quote was from June -- which last I checked is 6 months ago. Some data in the article is only 3 months old. Mea culpa. Still, not relevant to the conversation at hand -- unless you are having one with yourself. Which you seem to be. I'll leave you to it.

I think it’s the more important metric if you are trying to work out who is taking up all the space in hospitals, which is actually relevant to the conversation given the focus on blaming the unvaccinated. 
 

Clearly though as usual you hate being challenged and take your toys and run as soon as you realise you don’t have an answer. I’ll leave you to trying figure out why the block feature doesn’t appear to be working for you. Good luck. 

[Week]

11 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I think it’s the more important metric if you are trying to work out who is taking up all the space in hospitals, which is actually relevant to the conversation given the focus on blaming the unvaccinated. 

From 3-6 months ago and solely in the UK? This is useful to the conversation going on regarding the US and other countries with completely different populations and history with the virus? Is that the insight that you are providing here? 

The hospitalization rate of the unvaccinated is relevant to look at how health care systems are, and will be, strained due to the population of unvaccinated. This different in every country -- correct? The amount of natural immunity from previous waves is different in each country -- correct? So, how is an old percentage of Brits relevant more broadly? 

[DMC]

22 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

You got stabbed in the arm a few times, get over yourself. 

I don't think, for most people, it's a feeling of superiority but rather general disgust at the stupidity and lack of basic decency on behalf of a substantial portion of humanity.  And of course, that's not every unvaxxed person, but it's undoubtedly a whole hell of a lot of them that can't be bothered to follow objectively simple measures due to indifference, being willingly misinformed, and/or appallingly out of spite based on their political preferences.

Now, to be clear - and I can't believe I have to add this qualifier - that does not mean wishing death upon these people, and certainly not basing public policy/administration on such a sentiment.  But it's very understandable if people's frustrations having to confront and endure such idiotic jackasses on a daily basis putting their own and their family's livelihoods at risk manifests into spouting off with outrage on the internet.

To respond to the general discussion, this is analogous - and really an extension of - how much blame voters themselves deserve.  Of course, the media (or outside agitators) propagating misinformation, the failure of leadership, rising (and well-earned) distrust in institutions all are valid factors as well with varying levels of legitimacy.  But just like a substantial portion of eligible voters, these people deserve some of the blame as well.

And to extend the analogy, decades of research demonstrates social pressure and even shaming does increase turnout.  Obviously such shaming should not devolve into "I hope you die" - that's never going to be persuasive - but some good ol' mom guilt can often be effective.  OTOH, with polarization it's rather clear it very much depends on who is doing the shaming - and based on recent days it appears even Trump would not be able to shame Trumpists into acting like decent human beings.  Which is why my reaction generally trends towards depression rather than outrage, but YMMV.