Ukraine- War.

[Spockydog]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

 

People are also prone to viewing Putin as irrational and stupid, when he is in fact highly intelligent and quite rational, 

 

Yeah, I'm guessing you haven't seem him speaking recently.

 

[Lightning Lord]

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Too many people today have no concept of nationalism, patriotism and belonging to something greater then yourself, pride in your ancestors and ambition for the future of your people to be great long after you are gone.

To these types, such concepts are utterly alien. No wonder you don’t understand Putin.

Ah, but you definitely do. I am sure you have much in common with him. Long history of work in espionage, killing off your enemies, palling around with fellow dictators... yep, you certainly understand him.

I understand the concepts you've listed just fine. The only issue is I understand them from the side being invaded by the murderous thug you understand so well.

If Putin cared about Russia, he'd be a little less keen to murder and jail dissidents. He wouldn't need to - he's already got a chokehold on power. So he could allow them to say what they want, as it wouldn't matter. He wouldn't be imprisoning protesters. He's already winning the war, he shouldn't care if people speak out against it.

He does those things because he needs to be seen to be powerful and unchallenged.

You can disagree all you want, but you're still wrong and a delusional despot-worshipping prick.

[Spockydog]

Jeez, Trump really did a number on American conservatives. The support for Putin is bizarre.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I also disagree that all of this is about Putin’s own power.

He’s been at helm of the country for over two decades. The standard of living for most Russian citizens in most metrics is terrible.

Russia’s population went down a million last year, the worst population loss since the collapse of the Soviet Union

Hes proven a terrible leader either through incompetence or indifference.

The best thing he could do for his country is to retire/and or kill himself.

11 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If he only cared about himself, he need not take any of these immense risks. 

To give himself another place to lord over.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, Lightning Lord said:

Ah, but you definitely do. I am sure you have much in common with him. Long history of work in espionage, killing off your enemies, palling around with fellow dictators... yep, you certainly understand him.

I understand the concepts you've listed just fine. The only issue is I understand them from the side being invaded by the murderous thug you understand so well.

If Putin cared about Russia, he'd be a little less keen to murder and jail dissidents. He wouldn't need to - he's already got a chokehold on power. So he could allow them to say what they want, as it wouldn't matter. He wouldn't be imprisoning protesters. He's already winning the war, he shouldn't care if people speak out against it.

He does those things because he needs to be seen to be powerful and unchallenged.

You can disagree all you want, but you're still wrong and a self-righteous prick.

Good day to you too.

[Relic]

2 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Jeez, Trump really did a number on American conservatives. The support for Putin is bizarre.

 

Those people were just waiting for a chance to support a mass murder. As long as he was white. 

[DaveSumm]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

The practical problem (ignoring the ethical problem for now) with this is that the world doesn't operate by mid-20th century logic like this anymore. Putin is risking/has already:

Severely damaged large sectors of the Russian economy

Isolated Russia from many of its allies

Emboldened his domestic political opponents

Strengthened ties again between NATO aies

Revealed the weakened state of Russian conventional forces

Hardening Ukrainian resistance to the point that any puppet government likely falls immediately unless there's a longterm occupation. A further drain in Russian resources.

He personally might not be directed by any of this, but Russia sure will. Even if Russia achieves its military objectives in the next few days, Putin is taking a major gamble that Russia won't overall be worse off because of this invasion.

This is ultimately the question I’m asking myself most; does your list outweigh @Free Northman Reborn ‘s list. You get very different answers to that depending where you look. I’m clinging to the idea that Russia will be worse off, significantly so, such that once the dust settles on this (and I of course hope it does so swiftly), it can be used as a lesson from other nations and maybe future Russian leaders, that this isn’t the way to go. That Putin truly is living half a century too late and that the world just doesn’t operate like this anymore, that people don’t care about Empires, that by and large, everyone’s happy to leave each other be.

[Varysblackfyre321]

Just now, Relic said:

Those people were just waiting for a chance to support a mass murder. As long as he was white. 

Essentially yes. I am 100% certain Tucker Carlson would be crying China was based if the guys in charge looked more like him. Maybe dropped the communist label.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, DaveSumm said:

This is ultimately the question I’m asking myself most; does your list outweigh @Free Northman Reborn ‘s list. You get very different answers to that depending where you look. I’m clinging to the idea that Russia will be worse off, significantly so, such that once the dust settles on this (and I of course hope it does so swiftly), it can be used as a lesson from other nations and maybe future Russian leaders, that this isn’t the way to go. That Putin truly is living half a century too late and that the world just doesn’t operate like this anymore, that people don’t care about Empires, that by and large, everyone’s happy to leave each other be.

That ignores China, who very much believes in Empire today, to the extent that they view the last few hundred years as just a temporary interval in their status as the pre-eminent world power.

[Chaircat Meow]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

The practical problem (ignoring the ethical problem for now) with this is that the world doesn't operate by mid-20th century logic like this anymore. Putin is risking/has already:

Severely damaged large sectors of the Russian economy

Isolated Russia from many of its allies

Emboldened his domestic political opponent

Strengthened ties again between NATO aies

Revealed the weakened state of Russian conventional forces

Hardening Ukrainian resistance to the point that any puppet government likely falls immediately unless there's a longterm occupation. A further drain in Russian resources.

He personally might not be directed by any of this, but Russia sure will. Even if Russia achieves its military objectives in the next few days, Putin is taking a major gamble that Russia won't overall be worse off because of this invasion.

Angela Merkel said something like this - before this current crisis. Putin was a Nineteenth-Century politician in the Twenty-First Century, according to her. The trouble is I think the jury is basically out on whether Putin's old fashioned techniques are going to work or not. Maybe the Twenty-First Century will operate in a similar way to previous centuries, in the relevant respects? 

He is going to be isolated but Russia is fairly well equipped to weather sanctions and China has an interest in seeing they don't collapse. He will strengthen NATO a bit but not sure that changes things too much. I think it is bit early to say whether the Russian forces have been shown to be weaker than supposed - if they have it is reminiscent of the Winter War where Stalin eventually beat Finland but lowered his prestige at a significant time.

The big risk for him is Ukraine turns into a quagmire like Iraq (supposing Russia wins this phase of the war) and ultimately weakens him. 

[Chaircat Meow]

27 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Overall goals?
 

Shoring up Russia’s western front. Expanding the Russian Federation from 145m to maybe 170-180 million people. Expanding the Russian Federation’s GDP and Industrial base by whatever is currently generated by Ukraine.

 

Basically not very much. Ukraine's GDP is only slightly bigger than Scotland's and there are only 5.5m people in Scotland vs 40m+ in Ukraine. It is the poorest country in Europe with a GDP per capita 1/3 of Russia's! Still it used to be a productive and strategic part of the Russian/Soviet empire, so maybe he hopes it can be again. 

[sologdin]

Too many people today have no concept of nationalism, patriotism and belonging to something greater then yourself, pride in your ancestors and ambition for the future of your people to be great long after you are gone.

dunno, FNR. these fascistic ideas are simple and easily refuted. more fair perhaps to say that they have been understood and rejected. i mean, 'your people,' really?

[Free Northman Reborn]

14 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Angela Merkel said something like this - before this current crisis. Putin was a Nineteenth-Century politician in the Twenty-First Century, according to her. The trouble is I think the jury is basically out on whether Putin's old fashioned techniques are going to work or not. Maybe the Twenty-First Century will operate in a similar way to previous centuries, in the relevant respects? 

He is going to be isolated but Russia is fairly well equipped to weather sanctions and China has an interest in seeing they don't collapse. He will strengthen NATO a bit but not sure that changes things too much. I think it is bit early to say whether the Russian forces have been shown to be weaker than supposed - if they have it is reminiscent of the Winter War where Stalin eventually beat Finland but lowered his prestige at a significant time.

The big risk for him is Ukraine turns into a quagmire like Iraq (supposing Russia wins this phase of the war) and ultimately weakens him. 

Yep. It’s a risk, with ultimate outcome unknown.
 

The question is, if he waits, does his position get stronger or weaker? If Ukraine joins NATO it’s over. Similarly, if a more aggressive US  president (with all his mental faculties still intact) takes over, things might be more difficult.

Merkel just left, so Germany is temporarily less sure of itself.

And does the military balance of power between Russia and Ukraine improve or deteriorate from Russia’s point of view as every year goes by?

After Covid, is the world desperate to just get on with life rather than engage in a conflict with Russia?

Is China’s Xi’s aggressive geopolitical stance guaranteed to continue with his eventual successor? Are tensions around Taiwan working in Russia’s favour right now?

Is Putin worried that his own inevitable ageing will make him less capable each year to lead this big push?

All things considered, the timing might well be better now than it ever wil be again.

[Spockydog]

These weapons are absolutely devastating. Completely indiscriminate, and if they are deployed in built up areas, the civilian casualties will be off the charts. 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

15 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Angela Merkel said something like this - before this current crisis. Putin was a Nineteenth-Century politician in the Twenty-First Century, according to her. The trouble is I think the jury is basically out on whether Putin's old fashioned techniques are going to work or not. Maybe the Twenty-First Century will operate in a similar way to previous centuries, in the relevant respects? 

 

Angela Merkel should just STFU.

Had she done more than paying half arsed lip service to investing in renewable energies and ending depedence on fossil fuels, we wouldn't be nearly as dependant on Russian energy supplies. 16 years of wasted opportunities and talk.

[Varysblackfyre321]

44 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If he only cared about himself, he need not take any of these immense risks. 

Also I should say this; he personally isn’t taking an immense risk in terms of his person.

His standard of living won’t deplete due to any sanctions. The Russian populace to which he lords over might.

His legs won’t be blown off due to any bombs; that would  be some the men and boys he’s sending to fight.

If he loses(though that’s unlikely) he will still be the dictator of a country of a 150 million people and nuclear arms at his disposal.

If you want say theirs a cold but logical reason for his power grab that’s fine; I agree.

But let’s not pretend the primary motivation isn’t ultimately benefiting himself with little care for anyone else.

He’s not a benevolent dictator; hence his abysmal management of the country in the decades he’s been in charge.

2 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If Ukraine joins NATO it’s over. S

Sigh nato already said it wouldn’t accept Ukraine and the process would be a decade to finalize.

 

[Chaircat Meow]

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yep. It’s a risk, with ultimate outcome unknown.
 

The question is, if he waits, does his position get stronger or weaker? If Ukraine joins NATO it’s over. Similarly, if a more aggressive US  president (with all his mental faculties still intact) takes over, things might be more difficult.

Merkel just left, so Germany is temporarily less sure of itself.

And does the military balance of power between Russia and Ukraine improve or deteriorate from Russia’s point of view as every year goes by?

After Covid, is the world desperate to just get on with life rather than engage in a conflict with Russia?

Is China’s Xi’s aggressive geopolitical stance guaranteed to continue with his eventual successor? Are tensions around Taiwan working in Russia’s favour right now?

Is Putin worried that his own inevitable ageing will make him less capable each year to lead this big push?

All things considered, the timing might well be better now than it ever wil be again.

It looks to me like this isn't a result of the West/Ukraine looking stronger - rather Russia has made improvements to its army and insulated itself more from economic warfare, so it can afford to take more risk (or thinks it can).

The rise of China is the central strategic fact - Putin knows the US is now prioritizing the Pacific more and more so its commitment to Europe is probably going to wane over the long term. 

So it is like pushing at a slightly weakening neighbour rather than desperation at the prospect of growing strength, unlike for example Germany vs Russia in 1914 (when Germany saw the balance of power shifting against it). 

[Loge]

57 minutes ago, Relic said:

What the fuck are they doing that far West??

Trying to cut off supply lines? All the aid the West is giving comes across the land border.

[lacuna]

48 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Too many people today have no concept of nationalism, patriotism and belonging to something greater then yourself, pride in your ancestors and ambition for the future of your people to be great long after you are gone.

I think you ought to change your nickname. You're clearly not into freedom.

[Varysblackfyre321]

33 minutes ago, sologdin said:

Too many people today have no concept of nationalism, patriotism and belonging to something greater then yourself, pride in your ancestors and ambition for the future of your people to be great long after you are gone.

dunno, FNR. these fascistic ideas are simple and easily refuted. more fair perhaps to say that they have been understood and rejected. i mean, 'your people,' really?

Eh I can agree to an extent; too many self-purported nationalists or patriots capsize their own nation’s power, divide their people(unless you live exactly as I do or look like me you ain’t a real x), and cheer on their nation’s adversaries wrestling influence from their nations because they(adversaries) look like them, and are acting like the autocrats they wish to be.