US Politics: Oh Dearie, Dearie me.

[DMC]

 I've always preferred both.

[Mindwalker]

2 hours ago, LongRider said:

The twitter photo shop memes of DeSatans clean white boots are  hilarious. The meme I didn’t see but hope it exists somewhere, is of  Bernie and his mittens next to DeSatan and his boots.

Oh come on! Bernie's mittens are cute.

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, Week said:

Touché, Jace.

In other "news"

@DMC, as our polling expert, please weigh in here for us. Like, which party would this zombie-ticket run under? Which party does Trump think they would run under? Why would George Washington and Abraham Lincoln run for POTUS if they were brought back to life? Why would George Washington run for a 3rd term or why would Abe run as a VP?? I have so many questions and I demand answers.

 

 

So that means HRC would have beaten them by 42 points, since, y'know, she won the popular vote by 2%. Or are we talking 2020, in which case smokin' Joe would beat them by 44 points since he won the NPV by >4%?

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, Mindwalker said:

Oh come on! Bernie's mittens are cute.

Would be the perfect photo, Bernie’s hand knitted mittens keeping his hands cozy -vs-  DeSatan’s perfectly clean shiny white not a bit of mud on ‘em just for show, useless boots. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

19 hours ago, DMC said:

I dunno 2020 saw a surprising amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and congressional races.  I agree that Wisconsin looks more and more like a long shot, but Warnock has actually performed quite well in recent polls - much more so than the polling in August - and remember Georgia is not a state that overestimated Dem performance, even underestimated it in the 2020 runoffs.

538 had an article about how there wasnt too much vote splitting in 2020 (emphasis theirs). Still, there was enough spread in the data that any outcome is possible for the states I mentioned. Anyway, correlations between Presidential and Congressional outcomes have strengthened in recent years, but I dont know if similar analysis has been performed for Governor races.

[Maithanet]

Vote splitting is a lot more common for governor's races.  Just a quick look at the landscape demonstrates that.  There are Republican governors in vt, ma, and, md, and Democratic governors in ks and ky.  The only similarly "misaligned" senators would be mt and wv, and there are twice as many senators as governors.  And in presidential races, the last time we got any sort of misalignment was probably Obama winning Indiana in 2008, and even that wasn't too far off.

[Corvinus85]

11 hours ago, Week said:

Touché, Jace.

In other "news"

@DMC, as our polling expert, please weigh in here for us. Like, which party would this zombie-ticket run under? Which party does Trump think they would run under? Why would George Washington and Abraham Lincoln run for POTUS if they were brought back to life? Why would George Washington run for a 3rd term or why would Abe run as a VP?? I have so many questions and I demand answers.

 

 

OTOH, if Woodrow Wilson and Andrew Johnson (or Hoover if you will) returned from the dead and formed a ticket, he'd have a real fight on his hands. 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Anyway, correlations between Presidential and Congressional outcomes have strengthened in recent years, but I dont know if similar analysis has been performed for Governor races.

That's the point, the correlation naturally increases with polarization, but this didn't prevent a marked increase last cycle.  Anyway, no, the correlation isn't nearly as pronounced with gubernatorial races.

[Zorral]

14 hours ago, LongRider said:

The twitter photo shop memes of DeSatans clean white boots are  hilarious. The meme I didn’t see but hope it exists somewhere, is of  Bernie and his mittens next to DeSatan and his boots.

“You’re not allowed to pass a ‘Don’t say gay’ bill then show up in public dressed like Nancy Sinatra,” Jimmy Kimmel said.

[James Arryn]

Broke hand. Can’t type for a while. Return trip from hell.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Have to laugh at the latest SurveyUSA poll out of GA that has Warnock 12 points up. I mean, scandals do have a short lived effect of creating bumps in the polls, but these days they typically revert back. Whoever broke this story should have waited until 2 weeks or so before the election, given the half-life it would have been just enough to close the deal.

[Kalbear]

Welp, guess that's one way to take some thunder from the Hunter Biden DOJ leak this morning. Biden announces a bunch of pot-related initiatives:

 

 

[Mindwalker]

Looks like they found the missing White House phone logs. Not a joke.

“Document 40” is the list of material in the hands of the Privilege Review Team that was set up to review material seized at Mar A Lago as part of the filter process. The linked document is the formal declaration communicated to the court prior to dissemination of any materials. They go on to explain why they identify “Item 21” in Exhibit A as apparently reflecting the former president’s calls.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/6/2127332/-Looks-like-they-found-the-missing-White-House-phone-logs-Not-a-joke

 

ETA: Which Hunter leaks, anything really new?

[Kalbear]

The Hunter Biden leaks are from a federal agent who says that they think they have enough to charge him on some gun and tax charges. This thread from PopeHat points out some of the flaws of that reasoning. 

 

 

[Mindwalker]

Ah, thx.

Major Biden is trending on twitter.

 

[Mindwalker]

hrmph, wonky posting deleted original tweet:

 

[Jace, Extat]

I've never liked the SS, but the moment I became certain they must be disbanded is when we found out they stopped Trump from going back to that mob. 

He's the Commander in goddamn Chief. They're state property. In what fucking world is it ok to have state properties kidnapping the first citizen away from his own designs?

Ridiculous nation

 

[Mindwalker]

 

[Corvinus85]

Apparently Ben Sasse will soon resign as senator of Nebraska and will move to Florida to become the president of the University of Florida.

[DMC]

2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Have to laugh at the latest SurveyUSA poll out of GA that has Warnock 12 points up. I mean, scandals do have a short lived effect of creating bumps in the polls, but these days they typically revert back. Whoever broke this story should have waited until 2 weeks or so before the election, given the half-life it would have been just enough to close the deal.

This is actually what's annoying about "data journalism" and the interpretations of polling therein.  Polls are not meant to predict where the electorate will be at on election day.  They are a snapshot of how respondents feel at a certain point in time - each poll literally gives you the timeframe for when it was conducted.  NO ONE, or at least no responsible analyst, is suggesting things cannot change in months or even weeks. 

Is it irresponsible for pollsters to publish and make money off this information, or is it irresponsible for the public to so habitually misunderstand not only polling but basic probabilities?  I dunno, but we all gotta make a living man.

Although, yeah, +12 sounds like a clear Dem bias, which SurveyUSA has reflected for awhile now.