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Did Tywin pose an actual threat to either Aerys or Robert?


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Did Tywin pose an actual threat to either either Aerys or Robert? I feel like Tywin is a little overhyped in the beginning of the series and could only succeed in his plans to make house Lannister the first or second house in the realm by taking advantage of a civil war he did not start. Does anyone think Tywin could openly oppose the monarchy like the Robertians did to the Carolingians or the Godwins did to the house of Wessex?

Edited by The Merling King
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It depends. If he went against Robert in the beginning for some reason after the Sack and when Robert was already king, then the Stormlands, Riverlands, Vale and North would be solidly against him. I don't see help coming from the Reach or Dorne so I don't think he'd win that one. If he opposed Robert before he even was king then the war would drag on for longer. Not sure of the outcome.

As to later on, Tywin was actually quite lucky that the boar offed Robert, otherwise he would likely have been found to be breaking the King's Peace and the whole realm would probably gang up on him. Barely anyone outside the Westerlands save Pycelle seems to like him and a lot of people were probably looking for a chance to knock him down a peg or two. He got lucky with the way things worked out.

57 minutes ago, The Merling King said:

I feel like Tywin is a little overhyped in the beginning of the series and could only succeed in his plans to make house Lannister the first or second house in the realm by taking advantage of a civil war he did not start.

I agree, I feel his success was quite luck dependant.

With Aerys, it depends on how he was opposing Aerys.

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Well, for one he did start the civil war. His daughter took over the throne with a coup and he invaded the Riverlands. 

If you're asking if he could have supplanted the either the Targaryens or Robert directly and seat a Lannister king, no, not on his own and since he doesn't play well with others any other speculation is moot. 

As far as being the most influential house in King's Landing, the Lannisters were that for the majority of Aerys's reign and you could make an argument that they were also the most influential house during Robert's reign, though Jon Arryn held the reins.

Edited by The Sleeper
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On 9/24/2022 at 2:19 PM, Craving Peaches said:

It depends. If he went against Robert in the beginning for some reason after the Sack and when Robert was already king, then the Stormlands, Riverlands, Vale and North would be solidly against him. I don't see help coming from the Reach or Dorne so I don't think he'd win that one. If he opposed Robert before he even was king then the war would drag on for longer. Not sure of the outcome.

As to later on, Tywin was actually quite lucky that the boar offed Robert, otherwise he would likely have been found to be breaking the King's Peace and the whole realm would probably gang up on him. Barely anyone outside the Westerlands save Pycelle seems to like him and a lot of people were probably looking for a chance to knock him down a peg or two. He got lucky with the way things worked out.

I agree, I feel his success was quite luck dependant.

With Aerys, it depends on how he was opposing Aerys.

IMO it's actually a major flaw in the writing.

Peace in the realm for years and years under Robert. Ned comes to town and a million different things happen to help out the Lannisters.

Cersei succeeds in killing Robert just when it was the linchpin for Tywin to not get rolled over completely for trying to start a war (without knowing that his daughter was about to kill off the king).  A tremendous coincidence.

Meanwhile, Jon Arryn just got got right before and it would be a heck of a lot easier to kill Ned for asking questions.

 

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On 9/27/2022 at 4:20 AM, Sevalemer said:

Meanwhile, Jon Arryn just got got right before and it would be a heck of a lot easier to kill Ned for asking questions.

Jon Arryn is supposed to be smart. But he gives really stupid cryptic words on his deathbed rather than just make it clear. People might not have believed them but still... I can only assume he was delusional from the pain.

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On 9/26/2022 at 11:20 PM, Sevalemer said:

 

Cersei succeeds in killing Robert just when it was the linchpin for Tywin to not get rolled over completely for trying to start a war (without knowing that his daughter was about to kill off the king).  A tremendous coincidence.

 

Was it a coincidence? We see how much Tywin relies on communication in ASOS. Nobody would think twice about Cersei writing to her father, I could easily believe that some of it was planned. Not all, mind you, but some of it.

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Tywin basically held the rebellion in his hands. He could have sent his 12,000 cavalry straight to the Trident and fallen upon the rebels while they were recovering from their wounds. It wouldn’t have been hard to massacre them, especially if he waited for Ned to divide the forces. It would have been a matter of slaughtering both parts of the army one at a time. 

Edited by Canon Claude
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I think it might have also been a matter of politics, of who would support who in the face of a rebellion, which lords would go with it and which wouldn't. If Cersei's plotting managed to sucessfully transition to Joffrey's reign, they'd never have to think about managing a civil war, but then they didn't manage it, so yeah

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On 9/24/2022 at 10:50 PM, The Merling King said:

Did Tywin pose an actual threat to either either Aerys or Robert? I feel like Tywin is a little overhyped in the beginning of the series and could only succeed in his plans to make house Lannister the first or second house in the realm by taking advantage of a civil war he did not start. Does anyone think Tywin could openly oppose the monarchy like the Robertians did to the Carolingians or the Godwins did to the house of Wessex?

The Lannisters were hated in kings landing. 
In Aerys’s time, invading with an army would have been suicide for Tywin. Every lord would have opposed him, I doubt even his own vassals would have supported him

 

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On 9/24/2022 at 1:20 PM, The Merling King said:

taking advantage of a civil war he did not start

Tywin did start the civil war.  People can blame Lysa for murdering her husband and lying to Catelyn that Cersei did it.  Or blame Tywin's son for pushing Bran out the window for catching his treason with Tywin's daughter, or Tywin's grandson for trying to finish off the job by hiring the catspaw, or Petyr for lying to Catelyn about the owner of the dagger.  Catelyn usually gets blamed for "starting the war" because she arrested Tyrion with the intention of giving him a fair trial (by Westerosi standards), and she actually did free him after "the gods found him innocent".

But Tywin started the bloodshed.  He sent his men under the guise of "brigands" to slaughter the Riverlands so the Tullies would be blamed rather than the Lannisters.  This was not about avenging his "beloved" son; note that Tywin did not stop the warfare when Tyrion returned alive.  This was not even about protecting his family name, as he claimed.  This was an excuse to start a war to Lannister advantage.

I don't think the books specifically confirm this, but considering the readiness of Brave Companions at the start of the war, it seems heavily implied that Tywin had them on standby whenever he had his excuse to initiate a war.  All of this was planned, and it is highly likely Tywin was involved in Cersei's plan to murder King Robert as well.

Tywin's proposed marriage of Cersei to Rhaegar was his first step in trying to take power.  He didn't resign as Hand only because he was offended at Aerys, but because he began plotting for a less subtle, more violent way to gain power.   He was undoubtedly thrilled when Robert's Rebellion began, but he didn't take sides until he knew which side would benefit him the most. 

Tywin was always a huge threat to Aerys and Robert.  He was wise enough to know he cannot start a war without cause, but he was ready to pounce the moment a situation arrived.  It's the defining attribute of his character.

On 9/26/2022 at 11:20 PM, Sevalemer said:

IMO it's actually a major flaw in the writing.

Peace in the realm for years and years under Robert. Ned comes to town and a million different things happen to help out the Lannisters.

Cersei succeeds in killing Robert just when it was the linchpin for Tywin to not get rolled over completely for trying to start a war (without knowing that his daughter was about to kill off the king).

I agree.  I have very few criticisms of ASOIAF, but the contrived circumstances and "luck" for various people to too-easily succeed in their plans is probably my biggest criticism.  Petyr continuously getting away with his schemes with Tyrion never following up on his lie about the dagger, Daenerys conquering Slaver's Bay (especially Yunkai) way too easily, and Cersei's sequence of perfectly timed events allowing her to seamlessly take over the throne without resistance.

Edited by StarkTullies
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On 9/24/2022 at 1:20 PM, The Merling King said:

Did Tywin pose an actual threat to either either Aerys or Robert? I feel like Tywin is a little overhyped in the beginning of the series and could only succeed in his plans to make house Lannister the first or second house in the realm by taking advantage of a civil war he did not start. Does anyone think Tywin could openly oppose the monarchy like the Robertians did to the Carolingians or the Godwins did to the house of Wessex?

Tywin was a high lord with substantial wealth and power, so he was a threat to everyone. He was also a ruthless warlord who unleashed total war rather than abide by the rules of chivalry -- that made him an even bigger threat. And he was also a Machiavellian schemer and double-crosser who knew how to capitalize on others' mistakes, which made him an extremely dangerous threat.

Could he openly oppose the monarchy all by himself? No, but once he became the monarchy through his grandson, this was not really an issue.  

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I recently thought about the following power play that Tywin could have done once he and his troops had entered  KL:

Instead of sacking the city and sending his goons to gruesomely murder the children of Rhaegar, Tywin enters the Red Keep, secures the Royal Family and proclaim Rhaegar's son as king.

He then sends words to Robert and Ned that the war is over, the tyrant is dead (Aerys' death, whether at the hand of Jaime or someone else, would be explained away as suicide or conveniently falling off a the battlements of the Red Keep, no one would look too closely into that) and the Realm has a new king. 

What could the rebels do ? Would Robert and Ned keep on fighting now that Aerys is dead, to oust a babe-king wholly innocent of the crimes of his grandsire ? I guess they would have to accept that their rebellion is over, even if reluctantly.

Tywin would then be the ideal man to become Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm, enjoying at least 15 years of absolute power if he plays his cards right (and why would he not ? Robert is no great politician, and Ned would go back to the North as soon as he could). If marrying Cersei into the ruling family is so important, he can be betroth her to prince Viserys, who after all will be heir to Aegon VI for quite a long time.

Tywin and the Lannister would have enjoyed much more power and influence that they ever got under Robert. That would have been the smart move. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Stenkarazine said:

I recently thought about the following power play that Tywin could have done once he and his troops had entered  KL:

Instead of sacking the city and sending his goons to gruesomely murder the children of Rhaegar, Tywin enters the Red Keep, secures the Royal Family and proclaim Rhaegar's son as king.

He then sends words to Robert and Ned that the war is over, the tyrant is dead (Aerys' death, whether at the hand of Jaime or someone else, would be explained away as suicide or conveniently falling off a the battlements of the Red Keep, no one would look too closely into that) and the Realm has a new king. 

What could the rebels do ? Would Robert and Ned keep on fighting now that Aerys is dead, to oust a babe-king wholly innocent of the crimes of his grandsire ? I guess they would have to accept that their rebellion is over, even if reluctantly.

Tywin would then be the ideal man to become Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm, enjoying at least 15 years of absolute power if he plays his cards right (and why would he not ? Robert is no great politician, and Ned would go back to the North as soon as he could). If marrying Cersei into the ruling family is so important, he can be betroth her to prince Viserys, who after all will be heir to Aegon VI for quite a long time.

Tywin and the Lannister would have enjoyed much more power and influence that they ever got under Robert. That would have been the smart move. 

 

 

The rebels would never have accepted a Targaryen king whose father they’d killed in battle. What happens when that baby grows up and wants revenge?

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9 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

The rebels would never have accepted a Targaryen king whose father they’d killed in battle. What happens when that baby grows up and wants revenge?

Yes, but can they keep up fighting (ie. launching a direct attack on King's Landing) if their official objectives (ie. avenging the crimes of Aerys and overthrowing him) are now moot ?

 

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3 hours ago, Stenkarazine said:

Yes, but can they keep up fighting (ie. launching a direct attack on King's Landing) if their official objectives (ie. avenging the crimes of Aerys and overthrowing him) are now moot ?

 

Lyanna was still missing at that time, to be fair.

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On 10/4/2022 at 3:53 PM, Stenkarazine said:

What could the rebels do ? Would Robert and Ned keep on fighting now that Aerys is dead, to oust a babe-king wholly innocent of the crimes of his grandsire ? I guess they would have to accept that their rebellion is over, even if reluctantly.

I mean yeah? They were decided to oust the Targs, Tywin creates a new roadblock but the rebels knew that he could aways act against them and honestly, Tywin doesn't have the power to subdue the rebel regions, especially the North and Vale.

 

On 10/4/2022 at 4:12 PM, Stenkarazine said:

Yes, but can they keep up fighting (ie. launching a direct attack on King's Landing) if their official objectives (ie. avenging the crimes of Aerys and overthrowing him) are now moot ?

By the time of the Trident, Robert was already the rebels's would be king.

 

 

On 10/4/2022 at 3:53 PM, Stenkarazine said:

Tywin would then be the ideal man to become Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm, enjoying at least 15 years of absolute power if he plays his cards right (and why would he not ? Robert is no great politician, and Ned would go back to the North as soon as he could).

Why would the victorious rebels allow Tywin to get the greater prize at the very last minute?  Sounds kinda unlikely.

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20 hours ago, frenin said:

I mean yeah? They were decided to oust the Targs, Tywin creates a new roadblock but the rebels knew that he could aways act against them and honestly, Tywin doesn't have the power to subdue the rebel regions, especially the North and Vale.

If Tywin somehow gains support of Dorne and Reach he would have access to more warriors than rebels. Besides as long Lannister Fleet is loyal to Targs Greyjoys can not invade Reach and so Redwyne Fleet and Royal Fleet could start raiding coasts of North and Vale. In fact there is even a possibility that Greyjoys start raiding Riverlands and North instead Reach if Lannisters are loyalists.

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27 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

If Tywin somehow gains support of Dorne and Reach he would have access to more warriors than rebels. Besides as long Lannister Fleet is loyal to Targs Greyjoys can not invade Reach and so Redwyne Fleet and Royal Fleet could start raiding coasts of North and Vale. In fact there is even a possibility that Greyjoys start raiding Riverlands and North instead Reach if Lannisters are loyalists.

Exactly. Sure the rebels can keep fighting if their objective is the extirpation of the whole Targaryen dynasty root and stem. And they might very well win, but would it be really worth the effort? Can they sell to their bannermen and to the people of Westeros that the fight must continue even if the mad king is dead, and his heir a child under the protection of a house (Lannister) who did not fight the rebellion?

 

Edited by Stenkarazine
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1 hour ago, Loose Bolt said:

If Tywin somehow gains support of Dorne and Reach he would have access to more warriors than rebels. Besides as long Lannister Fleet is loyal to Targs Greyjoys can not invade Reach and so Redwyne Fleet and Royal Fleet could start raiding coasts of North and Vale. In fact there is even a possibility that Greyjoys start raiding Riverlands and North instead Reach if Lannisters are loyalists.

If and somehow, very loose words and even with that army, there's little way for the royalists to subdue either the North or the Vale, so either the rebels get a piece of the pie or the Targaryens are finding themselves without half of their Realm, i'm sorry but it's unfeasible for Tywin to pretend that, either the rebels control lthe new Targling king or Robert is made king, there's really no other way around.

Btw, the Greyjoys decided to raid the Reach, the minute they heard about Rhaegar being dead, what Tywin had to or say wasn't a part of the equation.

 

Quote

  Quellon Greyjoy still sat the Seastone Chair when Robert Baratheon, Eddard Stark, and Jon Arryn raised their banners in rebellion. Age had only served to deepen his cautious nature, and as the fighting swept across the green lands, his lordship resolved to take no part in the war. But his sons were relentless in their hunger for gain and glory, and his own health and strength were failing. For some time his lordship had been troubled by stomach pains, which had grown so excruciating that he took a draught of milk of the poppy every night to sleep. Even so, he resisted all entreaties until a raven came to Pyke with word of Prince Rhaegar’s death upon the Trident. These tidings united his three eldest sons: the Targaryen were done, they told him, and House Greyjoy must needs join the rebellion at once or lose any hope of sharing in the spoils of victory.

The last sentiment is the one everyone shared btw, that's why Tywin suddenly coming in changes little but needlessly prolonging a war that alreadyy had a winner.

 

1 hour ago, Stenkarazine said:

Can they sell to their bannermen and to the people of Westeros that the fight must continue even if the mad king is dead, and his heir a child under the protection of a house (Lannister) who did not fight the rebellion?

I mean, they did sell them that idea when they went from trying to kill Aerys and Rhaegar to procclaiming Robert as King, by the time of the Trident, everyone knew what the rebels's aim was.

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