Fist of the Dragon Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 (edited) 11 hours ago, Lord Varys said: Last I looked Abe Lincoln wasn't murdered by his Vice President. Any leader who suffers that fate was incompetent as hell - first for not foreseeing this, second for antagonizing a close colleague like that. A genuine seer literally tells Jon Snow in his first chapter in ADwD that the men closest to him plot his death. And he literally does nothing. He doesn't watch them, doesn't investigate this thing, doesn't take precautions to protect himself better. He is a moron. And what makes it worse is that both his own policies as well as his communication strategy causes Bowen Marsh and company to move against him. And now he is dead. And only magic will get him back into the game. Do you really understand what I mean about the similarity between Lincoln and Jon? I mean the conditions they face. Predictions? Let's ignore his assassination due to the prophecies he receives because in the first place it is Jon's own fault that he is too blind to think about his own life. (Not only because of lack of trust or caution towards a The red woman, Melisandre herself also plays a role in this story with her Wrong perceptions) And I agree with the rest of your words and I mentioned it in the previous comment, but personally, the other end of the scale is still heavier for me and I don't see Jon as a fool or an unworthy leader. Edited May 30, 2023 by Fist of the Dragon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fist of the Dragon Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 (edited) 15 hours ago, Lord Varys said: LOL, sorry, he sees the woman gave Stannis a magical sword that glows, he knows she burned eagle Orell somehow, and she disguised fucking Mance Rayder as Rattleshirt. She also messes with his connection to Ghost somehow. He has no justification not to trust that she is the real deal. And if he had doubts he could ask Stannis about her earlier predictions, could approach some of Stannis' men for information about her, etc. He accompanies her up to the wall and sees how unnaturally hot and steamy her body is. He knows she is not a normal woman but a supernatural sorceress. He also happens to be a stupid ass when he 'blames' Mel for Alys Karstark. She told him about a vision she had - how the hell can Jon expect that some girl on a dying horse is fucking Arya Stark, a girl Mel never actually met??? Alys showing up proves Mel had a genuine vision of a girl on a dying horse - they both misinterpreted it. He shows his stupidity by reacting like a stubborn child there - 'I want my prophecies to be exactly the way you said, I don't care that you only see images without name tags attached!' Now, skulls circling around you is also not completely clear ... but there is nothing wrong taking proper precautions. Interpreting it as death threats is the best take on that want - better safe than sorry, right? Honestly, how do these things you said lead to an increase in trust towards Melisandre! Melisandre's god himself, the things that Melisandre does to please R'hllor are enough reasons not to trust her. The sword is fake, Jon realizes that something is not right (how does this lead to Jon's trust in the Red priestess?) Orwell's eagle, Rattleshirt's transformation into Mance Rayder, his magical connection with Ghost, all of this even if It led to Jon's trust in Melisandre It was shown in the stage with his trust in Mance Rayder to save Arya (which was done with Melisandre's suggestion) And it tells us that he really trusts at some point in time. Ask Stannis? This is funny.Someone needs to tell Stannis that he is not Azor Ahai and that he is wrong. The peak of Melisandre's sweet deeds is when Stannis leaves the wall and she stays with Jon (just when Jon should trust her). The most important reason for Jon's death is his carelessness. Not a lack of trust in a witch priestess and her predictions. Edited May 30, 2023 by Fist of the Dragon kissdbyfire, Craving Peaches and frenin 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 I think Dany's biggest error was not crushing Yunkai, the moment she became aware (at the end of ASOS) that they were intriguing to reinstate slavery. A few hundred Unsullied at Astapor may have kept the peace. But, they may also have got caught up in faction-fighting. The problems at Astapor would have been small potatoes, had Yunkai been under firm control. Any intended invasion would have been met by three cities under the control of freedmen. Her next biggest error was trying far too hard to conciliate the slavers. A more Macchiavellian leader would have realised that they had to be struck down so hard that she need never fear their retaliation again. That ought to have meant the execution of every adult male Paterfamilias among the Great Masters, and the confiscation of their property in its entirety. Jon's biggest error was trying to maintain the fig-leaf of Nights Watch neutrality. Of course, he abandoned it, when he allied with Stannis, but he ought to have justified it to his men. Nights Watch neutrality is no longer fit for purpose, and the government in Kings Landing is an enemy. LongRider, Morte and frenin 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoftSpell Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 (edited) The OP is wrong to say Allister Thorne was 'higher status' than Jon. He was sent to the Night's Watch as a punishment by Tywin Lannister for opening up King's Landing to be sacked. Jon wasn't there with a crime as reason for joining it. Edited May 31, 2023 by SoftSpell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, SoftSpell said: The OP is wrong to say Allister Thorne was 'higher status' than Jon. He was sent to the Night's Watch as a punishment by Ned Stark for opening up King's Landing to be sacked. Jon wasn't there with a crime as reason for joining it. Agree w/ the sentiment, but it was Tywin who gave him the choice of death or taking the black. I especially agree that the OP is wrong. Edited May 30, 2023 by kissdbyfire Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonSnow4President Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 (edited) 30 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said: Agree w/ the sentiment, but it was Tywin who gave him the choice of death or taking the black. I especially agree that the OP is wrong. I don't think he's categorically wrong to say higher status. There's an argument to be made that Thorne, as an anointed knight, Master at Arms, and veteran with almost 2 decades of service, was a higher status in the supposedly meritocratic organization. I disagree, and think the baseborn acknowledged son of the most powerful Lord of the immediately neighboring region has more status, but there's room for disagreement. However, it's set right next to rampant, illogical Jon hate. Calling Slynt's execution "inappropriate" in setting is silly. Focusing on Jon's anger management, but giving Dany a free pass is silly. Saying most people would abandon Arya is silly, as is his comparison of familial issues facing modern members of the armed services to Arya's situation. It's all the same old picking and choosing the best of your favorite characters, while focusing on the worst (or exaggerating the worst) of your least favorites. Edited May 30, 2023 by JonSnow4President Morte 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 21 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said: I don't think he's categorically wrong to say higher status. There's an argument to be made that Thorne, as an anointed knight, Master at Arms, and veteran with almost 2 decades of service, was a higher status in the supposedly meritocratic organization. I disagree, and think the baseborn acknowledged son of the most powerful Lord of the immediately neighboring region has more status, but there's room for disagreement. However, it's set right next to rampant, illogical Jon hate. Calling Slynt's execution "inappropriate" in setting is silly. Focusing on Jon's anger management, but giving Dany a free pass is silly. Saying most people would abandon Arya is silly, as is his comparison of familial issues facing modern members of the armed services to Arya's situation. It's all the same old picking and choosing the best of your favorite characters, while focusing on the worst (or exaggerating the worst) of your least favorites. Sure, and agreed. Jon hate, and Daenerys hate, are equal and opposite forms of stupidity. LongRider and Morte 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illrede Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, SeanF said: Sure, and agreed. Jon hate, and Daenerys hate, are equal and opposite forms of stupidity. I don't think it's dumb, I think it's paranormal. The mechanism would be pretty much like sporting affiliation. Jon is in direct conflict only with the Boltons, who are at best Lannister allies of questionable loyalty and no active patronage- they have firmer links with *Freys*. The Boltons positioned themselves to take over the Stark project, Roose's biggest problem is that Ramsay is just too evil and undisciplined to pull it off- it really is, Stannis is second, Jon is a distant third. Dany is in conflict with a dysfunctional slaveocracy on the far side of the world that hasn't even provided a POV, and nobody else at all currently. Who is starting up a fandom war over this, now, for them? It's madness. EDIT: I thought I was a sketchy sort because since Book Two I thought Bran was a wrong 'un. Childish selfishness locked in by trauma to the point that I just don't trust him around people- and it was sparked by noticing how he thoughtlessly treated the Frey hostage children at a feast that he was presiding over of all things- Big and Little Walder, of whom the best can be said that one of them is smart as well as evil. If he was setting out to tailor an insult specifically for Freys, at that appropriate moment, it was perfect and cutting. But he wasn't giving a masterful chastisement, he's just that utterly careless about people now, and it isn't going to get any better. But setting yourself against a crippled, grieving child with power is at least explicable. And stands to end up being vindicated for the reason it was done, at least potentially. Edited May 31, 2023 by illrede Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fist of the Dragon Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, illrede said: I don't think it's dumb, I think it's paranormal. The mechanism would be pretty much like sporting affiliation. Jon is in direct conflict only with the Boltons, who are at best Lannister allies of questionable loyalty and no active patronage- they have firmer links with *Freys*. The Boltons positioned themselves to take over the Stark project, Roose's biggest problem is that Ramsay is just too evil and undisciplined to pull it off- it really is, Stannis is second, Jon is a distant third. Dany is in conflict with a dysfunctional slaveocracy on the far side of the world that hasn't even provided a POV, and nobody else at all currently. Who is starting up a fandom war over this, now, for them? It's madness. In fact, the most important test that Jon and Daenerys have to go through is their heart, which is in conflict with themselves. Daenerys in A Dance with Dragons as a leader is not going to fight all the slavery in the world.Dany's focus at this point in time is on the war with the Shadow and controlling the troubled state of Meereen. The rebellion is considered to be his biggest challenge during his rule over Meereen., and he often seeks to adopt effective policies to suppress it. The struggle against slave owners is never directly mentioned during her reign. But anyway, she realizes that Yunkai and New Ghis and other slavers have destroyed Astapor and are seeking to encircle Meereen (which with a peace treaty, slavery will return to its former state and only Meereen will There is no longer a slave in it). Jon's condition is also the same, so that during his command in the Night's Watch, he is repeatedly tested by Martin, and his heart is cruelly at odds with himself. But the fight or hostility with the Boltons is nothing but obsession. It is not his person. There are much bigger and more important risks than a political fight with the Boltons and the Lannisters. In general, even if the Boltons find enmity with Jon or Night's Watch at the end of Jon's story line in Dance with Dragons, it is because of Jon's decisions. The conditions in which each of Jon or Dany find themselves are not superior to each other in terms of difficulty. Edited May 31, 2023 by Fist of the Dragon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 On 5/30/2023 at 8:35 AM, Craving Peaches said: Which Aemon says is a fake... Sure, a fake hot Lightbringer, but still a real glowing magic sword. It might be cold, but it glows very bright. Which means Mel can do magic. On 5/30/2023 at 8:35 AM, Craving Peaches said: How does that prove she is a 'genuine seer'? It doesn't. None of that is evidence of her prophetic abilities. That is true, but going from genuine sorceress to genuine prophetess is no big step. And as I said, he could have asked Stannis and his people about her prophecies. The notion that it was smart of him to ignore the prophecy that his life was in danger from people very close to him was dumb as fuck. In fact, it was so dumb that I felt like George had fucked me and not Jon when he got stabbed. I mean, I thought the entire book he would immediately discover such a plot, would not suffer the fate of Robb because he was fucking warned. But, no, he chose to be another moron. On 5/30/2023 at 8:35 AM, Craving Peaches said: He can expect it to be Arya stark because Melisandre, the 'genuine seer', said so??? It looks like you are blaming Jon more than Melisandre here for the vision being wrong which is silly. It was Melisandre who told him it was Arya. If Melisandre only told Jon the image and Jon reacted that way you might have a point but she didn't. From Jon's point of view Melisandre messed up a prediction already so why should he trust her other ones? Because it was clear that she merely was wrong about the identity of the horse girl that was coming, not the fact that a horse girl was coming. Ditto with the eyeless heads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 On 5/30/2023 at 9:54 AM, Fist of the Dragon said: Do you really understand what I mean about the similarity between Lincoln and Jon? I mean the conditions they face. Predictions? Let's ignore his assassination due to the prophecies he receives because in the first place it is Jon's own fault that he is too blind to think about his own life. (Not only because of lack of trust or caution towards a The red woman, Melisandre herself also plays a role in this story with her Wrong perceptions) And I agree with the rest of your words and I mentioned it in the previous comment, but personally, the other end of the scale is still heavier for me and I don't see Jon as a fool or an unworthy leader. Jon isn't an unworthy leader, but he got himself killed there. And it was his fault. Now, if he survives his death (lol), he could improve. But honestly I feel disappointed by the depiction of Jon Snow in ADwD. His were not only mostly boring chapters, but they were also written in a very bland tone. Jon seemed smarter and more perceptive and more curious in the earlier books. Dany also fucked certain things up, but she didn't get herself killed - and she had a clear goal. Jon is just bumbling along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: The notion that it was smart of him to ignore the prophecy that his life was in danger from people very close to him was dumb as fuck. No one is saying that. People are saying that just because Jon didn't believe a prophecy from someone who already botched one, doesn't make him a bad leader. 36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: Sure, a fake hot Lightbringer, but still a real glowing magic sword. It might be cold, but it glows very bright. Which means Mel can do magic. Glamour is a completely different 'field' to prophecy. So it is no evidence that Melisandre's prophecies are reliable. Melisandre already botched the prophecy most relevant to Jon. She has a mixed record of prophecies coming true. And her claim that Stannis is Azor Ahai is especially dubious. Melisandre is shown to not be reliable when it comes to predictions, so the idea that Jon was stupid for not relying on her prophecies after she already messed up is silly. Melisandre's comments about threats and enemies are also really vague. If she told Jon specifics of how he would die and Jon still didn't listen then that would be stupid. But all she does is give a generic warning about enemies being close. And again, Jon does do something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Varys Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: No one is saying that. People are saying that just because Jon didn't believe a prophecy from someone who already botched one, doesn't make him a bad leader. I do. He got sound advice, ignored it, died. Even if he had no reason at all to trust Mel's visions - and he did have good reasons to believe her. He had every reason to know his people weren't happy with his decisions, meaning guarding himself against an assassination would have been a great thing to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 32 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: No one is saying that. People are saying that just because Jon didn't believe a prophecy from someone who already botched one, doesn't make him a bad leader. Jon believed in Melisandres magic enough to kidnap Gilly's baby 32 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: And again, Jon does do something. What'd he do? Lock up Ghost? Banish Pyp and Grenn? Meli tells him all the time about the trappings of power and to move with a big stick. Jon doesn't. Also I don't think Jon was a bad ruler, just a short one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: Jon believed in Melisandres magic enough to kidnap Gilly's baby No, he believed in Melisandre's willingness to carry out child sacrifice enough to kidnap the baby. 15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: What'd he do? Executed Slynt, sent Thorne away so he couldn't plot with like-minded people, had bodyguards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said: guarding himself against an assassination would have been a great thing to do. But he did. He was flanked by two guards on multiple occasions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackLightning Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 On 5/30/2023 at 7:04 AM, SoftSpell said: He was sent to the Night's Watch as a punishment by Tywin Lannister for opening up King's Landing to be sacked. 19 hours ago, kissdbyfire said: Agree w/ the sentiment, but it was Tywin who gave him the choice of death or taking the black. Good God, what an asshole No wonder Alliser is so bitter... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 22 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: No, he believed in Melisandre's willingness to carry out child sacrifice enough to kidnap the baby. A baby can still get sacrificed. He tricked her, didn't stop her like Davos 23 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: Executed Slynt, sent Thorne away so he couldn't plot with like-minded people, Probably both wrong moves that led to his demise. The goal is to work with your brothers, not strong arm and tyrannize the opposition. 24 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: had bodyguards. He did not. Rory? Hes a ranger, sometimes he's there to patrol, they're just random faces, not KG. Old Bear had them by his side too for instance. But really, keep the wolf close. Bran knows it Robb knew it but when he didn't it cost him his life. Jon though was always his best when besides Ghost, and is not much without him. Or perhaps now only him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craving Peaches Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said: He did not At multiple points it is mentioned he has guards flanking him though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugorfonics Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said: At multiple points it is mentioned he has guards flanking him though... As p.r, not as defense. Quote Satin had his horse saddled and bridled and waiting for him, a fiery grey courser with a mane as black and shiny as maester's ink. He was not the sort of mount that Jon would have chosen for a ranging, but on this morning all that mattered was that he look impressive, and for that the stallion was a perfect choice. His tail was waiting too. Jon had never liked surrounding himself with guards, but today it seemed prudent to keep a few good men beside him. They made a grim display in their ringmail, iron halfhelms, and black cloaks, with tall spears in their hands and swords and daggers on their belts. For this Jon had passed over all the green boys and greybeards in his command, choosing eight men in their prime: Ty and Mully, Left Hand Lew, Big Liddle, Rory, Fulk the Flea, Garrett Greenspear. And Leathers, Castle Black's new master-at-arms, to show the free folk that even a man who had fought for Mance in the battle beneath the Wall could find a place of honor in the Night's Watch. And hardly multiple. Besides the Old Bear had men at his side too what should have set Jon apart was his wolf. Like, if Jon wanted to wind up dead on the floor then he did everything right. If he didn't then we should explore what mistakes he took Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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