International Events Next-

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Now then you didn't share the results of your deliberations with your friends.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Now then you didn't share the results of your deliberations with your friends.

What do you mean?

[Winterfell is Burning]

Brazil's Federal Police seized the cell phones of Jair and Michelle Bolsonaro and arrested one of his former aides in an investigation about a scheme to insert false data about vaccination in the federal health records essentially made for anti-vaxxers being could travel inside Brazil and to the US. Yes, really.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

17 hours ago, Zorral said:

What do you mean?

You asked for my 2 cents, now I am asking for yours

[Zorral]

49 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

You asked for my 2 cents, now I am asking for yours

I have no idea what you're talking about, as far as your 2 cents goes, or what subject you are asking for my 2cents for either.

Edited May 3, 2023 by Zorral

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 5/2/2023 at 2:57 AM, Zorral said:

We are, at home and in our circles, every day. 

What are YOUR thoughts about the catastrophe that is Haiti?

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

5 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Brazil's Federal Police seized the cell phones of Jair and Michelle Bolsonaro and arrested one of his former aides in an investigation about a scheme to insert false data about vaccination in the federal health records essentially made for anti-vaxxers being could travel inside Brazil and to the US. Yes, really.

Shocking depths people will stoop to.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 

We're at an impasse.  I don't recall you saying anything.  I just say we discuss it constantly.  So, you want to hear how we lecture in classes and other venues on the history of San Domingue and why from the git go Haiti has been punished by all of Europe and North America and Latin America for having a successful slave revolt?  How the US constantly meddles, just coming in with the military and occupying the country as in  the early 20th C, coming back yet again if Haiti starts making steps toward some progress in its miserable condition, as abducting Aristide, the Clintons making sure Haiti couldn't mandate higher pay for those in the sweat shops owned by US and international congloms, the US, via the UN dragging in troops from other countries in the guise of helping after the earthquake, who raped, committed murders and gave Haiti cholera which it never had before?  And now the US guns manufactures flooding the country with our fave automatic weapons of mass destruction  -- which it didn't have before -- and on and on.

What you want?  What you think? 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Just go, your view is undoubtedly more nuanced, than mine, which was merely looking at the situation on hand, and what to do short term.

[Zorral]

Watch the effects when this is inevitably exported to Cuba and throughout the Caribbean, and the effects on the USA YAY.  They're working hard to keep this down lo as the FL gub jerkwaddy want to be POTUS, but we're already seeing it in Miami.

Edited May 4, 2023 by Zorral

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Shit’s getting ugly in Pakistan…

 https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/former-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-arrested-geo-tv-2023-05-09/

[The Anti-Targ]

The reorientation of Turkey back to secular govt would be a positive, but I'm not sure the some of the hopes and dreams of this WAPO article would be realised all that quickly.

Quote

This weekend, Turkey’s story could dramatically change. Voters go to the ballot box for the first round in presidential and parliamentary elections with Erdogan and the AKP facing the toughest challenge yet to their rule. Opinion polls show Erdogan trailing Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the soft-spoken, 74-year-old presidential candidate backed by a united bloc of opposition parties. A stalwart of the secularist Republican People’s Party, or CHP, Kilicdaroglu has framed his bid as that of a one-term public servant intent on restoring Turkish democracy and unraveling the strongman presidential system that Erdogan ushered in via a 2017 referendum.

The odds are still stacked against them, given Erdogan’s domineering hold of the levers of power and influence over the media. But the appeal of the opposition has never been stronger in Erdogan’s years in office. That’s been underscored tragically by the acrimony over lax Erdogan-era oversight that followed February’s devastating earthquake, which led to more than 50,000 deaths in southern Turkey and the collapse of countless structures that experts believe authorities failed to adequately inspect for earthquake proofing.

 

A new cohort of Turkish voters, many of whom have only known life under Erdogan, appear to be mobilizing for change. “Some analysts have cast Kilicdaroglu as a figure similar to President Biden, who campaigned on ending the rancor and division of the Trump era, and as a bridge to a new political generation,” my colleagues noted.

A victory for the Turkish opposition and the defenestration of Erdogan’s regime may have significant consequences. It could see a major shift in domestic economic policy; in a previous era, Erdogan could campaign on his economic record, but years of unorthodox measures to juice the Turkish economy have contributed to a spiraling cost-of-living crisis that may cost him votes. On the world stage, his defeat could lead to a healthier relationship between Turkey and the West, unfreeze Turkey’s block on Sweden’s accession into NATO, and shift Turkey’s equivocating stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine closer to the NATO consensus

Who knows if accession to the EU would have moderated some of what Erdogan did to Turkey over the last ~20 years? It certainly didn't do a lot to prevent Hungary from backsliding away from liberal democracy.

[dog-days]

Re Turkey. At this point, thinking that anyone who's not Erdogan could get elected seems like a very distant hope. 

Still, 44% inflation sounds brutal. 10% has been bad enough in the UK. Perhaps if that united more of the public against him... And then then there's the military. Not sure how much they're under his thumb following the 2016 coup. 

[Padraig]

11 hours ago, dog-days said:

Re Turkey. At this point, thinking that anyone who's not Erdogan could get elected seems like a very distant hope. 

Based on what we know is happening in Turkey, there is a legitimate possibility that Erdogan could be defeated.  Odds are still against it because of all the advantages he still has, but a "very distant hope" is certainly underplaying the possibility.

At the same time, certain media articles have got way too excited about it.

13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It could see a major shift in domestic economic policy; in a previous era, Erdogan could campaign on his economic record, but years of unorthodox measures to juice the Turkish economy have contributed to a spiraling cost-of-living crisis that may cost him votes. On the world stage, his defeat could lead to a healthier relationship between Turkey and the West, unfreeze Turkey’s block on Sweden’s accession into NATO, and shift Turkey’s equivocating stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine closer to the NATO consensus

Maybe you didn't quote all the "hopes and dreams" the article mentions but all of the above would seem likely to happen if Erdogan was defeated.  Of course, Erdogan losing is a big if so they are all but hopes and dreams (if that is what you mean). 

13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Who knows if accession to the EU would have moderated some of what Erdogan did to Turkey over the last ~20 years

Turkey was in no position to join the EU when Erdogan realised power initially.  In fact, his victory was initially viewed as a positive step towards EU accession (as Turkey looked like it was finally escaping from military affiliated governments) and the initial years were also positive.  In those days, there were arguments on this board about whether Turkey should be allowed to join as it seemed at least a possibility.   

Its an interesting "what-if" but Turkey would have been a very different country if it had been able to join the EU, so it doesn't tell us a lot.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Erdogan may or may not lost this election.

The folks in Turkey might not be that fond of him, but the Turkish expats* (paricularly in Germany) like him a lot. So those milions of votes could save him. But as I've said before (I think it was in one of the Ukraine threads, when we talked about Sweden's prospects of joining NATO and Erdogan and that not happening before the Turkish election), he is more vulnerable than he was in the past.

EU membership being able to moderate Erdogan? I am not sure on what that's based on. Certainly not on an observable reality. In case you haven't noticed, we have a rule of law crisis in Hungary, which is in the EU. So I'd rate the chances of the EU having to deal with a Turkish Orban higher, than for a good democratic Erdogan in that alternate reality. 

 

*obviously not the Kurdish community, who are technically Turkish.

[Denvek]

And even if Erdogan does lose the presidency, his alliance could still end up with more seats in parliament than the opposition.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, Denvek said:

And even if Erdogan does lose the presidency, his alliance could still end up with more seats in parliament than the opposition.

Ironically though, Erdogan has given the Presidency a considerable amount of power in recent years, so a loss would definitely be a game changer.  Even if the parliament elections aren't as favourable.  In fact, part of the reason the media has gotten so excited about the election is that all the implications are difficult to quantify.  One is free to wildly speculate.  But if and when Erdogan wins, then it will all be wasted time.

4 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

EU membership being able to moderate Erdogan? I am not sure on what that's based on.

In fairness, I don't think anyone suggested it was likely.

The more interesting EU question is when it will face its structural problems highlighted by Hungary.  I think it would like to ignore it eternally but if Turkey ever became serious about joining again, then the EU would have to tell it no or try to find a solution.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 hours ago, Padraig said:

Based on what we know is happening in Turkey, there is a legitimate possibility that Erdogan could be defeated.  Odds are still against it because of all the advantages he still has, but a "very distant hope" is certainly underplaying the possibility.

If Erdogan is defeated will he leave office or go for the Autogolpe?

[Toth]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If Erdogan is defeated will he leave office or go for the Autogolpe?

My bet is on repeat-elections until he's happy with the result.

[dog-days]

Looks like Erdogan's back in. I can't see him losing the run-off. 

In Thailand the opposition parties have won big at the ballot box, but the establishment may block them from forming a government.