Varys, Illyrio, GC and the "Plan"

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Viserys III has actually been proclaimed and crowned.

Nowhere in the series is there evidence of Aerys proclaiming Viserys his heir or Viserys being crowned before the gold that kills him.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Mourning Star said:

Nowhere in the series is there evidence of Aerys proclaiming Viserys his heir or Viserys being crowned before the gold that kills him.

Viserys is proclaimed his Aerys' new heir in TWoIaF after the Trident and before the Sack, and he is then later crowned on Dragonstone by his mother with her own crown - the one Viserys takes into exile and is eventually forced to sell.

The source for the latter isn't in the books, that is true, but Viserys is styled king by his few allies/supporters as well as mocked as 'the Beggar King' by his enemies. They don't style him 'the Beggar Prince'.

Aegon, on the other hand, is no king at all so far, not even in the eyes of his most fervent supporters.

[Mourning Star]

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Viserys is proclaimed his Aerys' new heir in TWoIaF after the Trident and before the Sack, and he is then later crowned on Dragonstone by his mother with her own crown - the one Viserys takes into exile and is eventually forced to sell.

Unclear to me if we can trust the world book here.

Especially given that Viserys’s last words are, “I will be crowned.” 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Unclear to me if we can trust the world book here.

We can, since there is no source whatsoever indicating that Aegon or Rhaenys were ever the heirs of Aerys II. Him choosing Viserys, his own beloved son who was much older than Aegon makes perfect sense and is very well within established precedents as I laid out above.

Also, of course, Viserys and Rhaella are sent to Dragonstone after the Sack ... while Aegon and Rhaenys remain behind. Dragonstone is the seat of the Heir Apparent, so this fits pretty well there.

In fact, since TWoIaF reveals that Aerys believed the Dornish betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident the king might have even formally disinherited Aegon and Rhaenys. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if that was revealed in TWoW. That would be an ideal way to mess with Aegon's allegedly superior claim.

But Aerys naming Viserys his heir makes Dany next in line, not Aegon, since she is Viserys' anointed heir in AGoT. He is the king, and she is Princess of Dragonstone. That's how they are styled in Pentos.

9 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Especially given that Viserys’s last words are, “I will be crowned.” 

He was forced to sell his mother's crown and he knew he was no proper king. I think the source for his coronation is the App, so you can take that with a grain of salt, but he certainly is styled and viewed as the Targaryen king in exile by secret friends and enemies alike ... so he does have a different status than Aegon has with his own followers - men and women who know who and what he is supposed to be and yet still don't style him as king.

[Lost Melnibonean]

In Daenerys I, Game 3, we learn that Illyrio has been aiding the Targlings and showering them with gifts for the past six months. Illyrio, who speaks Dothraki, has brokered a betrothal between Drogo, khal of the greatest of the Dothraki khalasars, and Daenerys, that will benefit Viserys’s claim to the Iron Throne...

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"We won't need his whole khalasar," Viserys said. His fingers toyed with the hilt of his borrowed blade, though Dany knew he had never used a sword in earnest. "Ten thousand, that would be enough, I could sweep the Seven Kingdoms with ten thousand Dothraki screamers.”

Notice that Viserys suggests that he does not need Drogo’s entire khalasar of one hundred thousand, including forty thousand fighters, to make good his claim; Viserys believes he only needs ten thousand. This suggests that a higher number of Drogo’s warriors were promised, or at least contemplated, but Viserys seems to want, or have been promised, only ten thousand. 

In Daenerys II, Game 11, we also learn that, through Illyrio, Khal Drogo has promised Viserys a crown. While this is a foreshadowing of the crown of molten gold Drogo actually gives Viserys, the passage clearly suggests to the reader that Drogo has bargained for his bride by promising to support materially Viserys’s claim. But we can only trust Illyrio so far. So, whether Drogo actually promised to support Viserys’s claim in exchange for his Targaryen bride, or Drogo actually promised Illyrio a number of Dothraki fighters, or Illyrio brokered the marriage to secure Drogo’s friendship in hopes of obtaining his material support, we cannot know with certainty. In any event, Illyrio tells us that Drogo will not aid Viserys until after he presents Daenerys to the dosh khaleen, and then, only “if the omens favor war," suggesting that Viserys should be prepared to wait “another few years." And notice that Jorah supports Illyrio in his counsel to Viserys. 

A bit later, we encounter the three egg MacGuffins...

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"Dragon's eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai," said Magister Illyrio. "The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty."

We are told expressly that these three dragon’s eggs are ancient, petrified eggs from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai, and we recall that Illyrio is a trader in dragonbone with a trading network that stretches to the fabled lands beside the Jade Sea. 

We also learn that the three dragon’s eggs are worth the fortune in horses and slaves that Illyrio collected from Drogo for brokering the marriage pact. Does this mean that Illyrio gave Daenerys to Drogo, so Drogo gave Illyrio a fortune in horses and slaves? If so, then Drogo would not “owe” Viserys a crown, would he? On the other hand, should we believe that Daenerys’s property was, in fact, the property of her husband and khal, and that by giving Daenerys such “a truly magnificent gift,” that Illyrio had upset the gift-giving balance back in his favor? 

Keep in mind this could be nothing more than a plot device. In his 1993 letter, outlining his earliest concept of A Song of Ice and Fire, we see that The George initially intended to have Daenerys stumble upon a nest of petrified dragon’s eggs on the edge of the Dothraki Sea. 

In Eddard II, Game 12, King Robert informs Lord Eddard that Lord Varys has sent word of the wedding. Very curiously, the source of the information is revealed to be Jorah, who Robert claims “is now in Pentos, anxious to earn a royal pardon that would allow him to return from exile," and that "Lord Varys makes good use of him." Now, we can connect Illyrio and Jorah to Varys. Of course, the casual first-time reader should assume here that Jorah is Varys’s agent spying on Illyrio and the Targlings for King Robert. But given what we learn later, we know that Varys is actually a double agent in league with Illyrio, and thus using information from Jorah to influence events at court.

Back in Daenerys I, Game 3, we learned that Rhaegar’s heir was murdered during the sack of King’s Landing. Here Eddard informs us “that Rhaegar's little girl had cried as they dragged her from beneath her bed to face the swords. The boy had been no more than a babe in arms, yet Lord Tywin's soldiers had torn him from his mother's breast and dashed his head against a wall.”

Despite Robert’s hatred of all Targaryens, we learn that he did not send assassins after the Targlings as Viserys suspected; but rather Jon Arryn had persuaded him not to do so. When Eddard pointed out that there was not much they could do about it anyway, Robert agreed . . .

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The king's mouth twisted in a bitter grimace. "No, gods be cursed. Some pox-ridden Pentoshi cheesemonger had her brother and her walled up on his estate with pointy-hatted eunuchs all around them, and now he's handed them over to the Dothraki."

. . .

"This Khal Drogo is said to have a hundred thousand men in his horde. What would Jon say to that?"

"He would say that even a million Dothraki are no threat to the realm, so long as they remain on the other side of the narrow sea," Ned replied calmly. "The barbarians have no ships. They hate and fear the open sea."

This is very confusing: If the Dothraki hate and fear the open sea, why would Drogo agree to send tens of thousands of Dothraki fighters to help Viserys, or any other claimant, to claim the Iron Throne across the Narrow Sea?

Daenerys recalls an important scene involving Illyrio and her brother in Daenerys III, Game 23...

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Her brother was miserable out here. He ought never have come. Magister Illyrio had urged him to wait in Pentos, had offered him the hospitality of his manse, but Viserys would have none of it. He would stay with Drogo until the debt had been paid, until he had the crown he had been promised. "And if he tries to cheat me, he will learn to his sorrow what it means to wake the dragon," Viserys had vowed, laying a hand on his borrowed sword. Illyrio had blinked at that and wished him good fortune.

So, Illyrio wanted Viserys to remain in Pentos. I do not subscribe to the reverse psychology theory, which posits that Illyrio wanted Viserys to go off and die in the Dothraki Sea, so he told him to stay in Pentos. That’s cockamamie to my mind. Illyrio’s blink suggests that he was surprised by Viserys’s intention to go with Drogo. Illyrio clearly expected Viserys to remain in Pentos, where Illyrio could ply him with Lysene bed slaves and Arbor gold.

But here is an interesting question: If Viserys had remained in Pentos, would Jorah have gone with Daenerys? He swore his sword to Viserys after all. I suspect that The George did not work this out completely. We know that Daenerys is off to become the Mother of Dragons and the head of a motley host of Dothraki, unsullied, and freedmen, as well as a collection of sellswords, and possibly even Victarion’s Ironmen. And we know that the George, against Illyrio’s wishes, wanted Viserys to get his molten crown in Vaes Dothrak. And, in that way, the George would have Jorah go with Drogo, eventually siding with Daenerys, but keeping tabs on her for Illyrio until they reach Qarth. 

In Arya III, Game 32, we see Illyrio, incognito, one more time before we meet him again, much later, with Tyrion in Dance. Here we learn that Varys is in league with Illyrio.

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" . . . found one bastard," one said. "The rest will come soon. A day, two days, a fortnight . . . "

This tells us that Varys does not want Eddard to discover the truth of the “twincest.”

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"And when he learns the truth, what will he do?" a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.

"The gods alone know," the first voice said. Arya could see a wisp of grey smoke drifting up off the torch, writhing like a snake as it rose. "The fools tried to kill his son, and what's worse, they made a mummer's farce of it. He's not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other's throats, whether we will it or no."

Here we see that Varys believes that the fools, plural, meaning Cersei, Jaime, and Tyrion, attempted to assassinate Bran. But we learn by the “purple wedding” that it was Joffrey. In any event, we see that Varys has a great deal of respect for Eddard’s fortitude, if not for his cunning.

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"Too soon, too soon," the voice with the accent complained. "What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay."

"As well bid me stop time. Do you take me for a wizard?"

Notice who gives the command: Illyrio, and who follows the order: Varys. Varys is working for Illyrio, not the other way around. 

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The other chuckled. "No less." . . .

"What would you have me do?" asked the torchbearer, a stout man in a leather half cape. . .

"If one Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." . . .

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. . . .

I love this exchange. When the casual, first-time reader reads this, he understands the Hand in question to be Jon Arryn, and that Varys must have caused Jon Arryn’s death, especially since we just learned that he does not want the new Hand learning about the “twincest,” and we learn as we read, that Jon was killed after learning about the “twincest.” But substitute another Jon, Jon Connington, in for Jon Arryn, and you can see what Illyrio might have been suggesting: That Varys attempt to co-opt Eddard into their ulterior plot. 

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"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."

Recall, that Drogo will not aid Viserys until after he presents Daenerys to the dosh khaleen, and then, only “if the omens favor war." Perhaps, this was what the author was hinting at when he had Illyrio tell Viserys that he would have to wait. Perhaps Illyrio understood that the real gift to Drogo was not a Targaryen bride, but a dragonlord heir, the stallion who mounts the world.

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"...Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever."

Varys urges his master to hasten Drogo’s material support of their ulterior plot. 

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"You are more than a juggler, old friend. You are a true sorcerer. All I ask is that you work your magic awhile longer." They started down the hall in the direction Arya had come, past the room with the monsters.

"What I can do, I will," the one with the torch said softly.

 

Is Varys frustrated by Illyrio's patience? Perhaps Varys exercises initiative not intended by Illyrio...  In Eddard VIII, Game 33, we learn that Jorah has informed Varys, presumably through Illyrio, that Daenerys is pregnant. amd Varys counsels Robert to have Daenerys and her unborn heir assassinated. 

In Daenerys IV, Game 36, the Targlings enter Vaes Dothrak, and Jorah expands our understanding of Dothraki gift-giving...

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Ser Jorah grunted. “Yes, Khaleesi, but … the Dothraki look on these things differently than we do in the west. I have told him as much, as Illyrio told him, but your brother does not listen. The horselords are no traders. Viserys thinks he sold you, and now he wants his price. Yet Khal Drogo would say he had you as a gift. He will give Viserys a gift in return, yes … in his own time. You do not demand a gift, not of a khal. You do not demand anything of a khal.”

This seems to reinforce the idea that Varys, and Illyrio, need to provoke Drogo into action since, even if the gift giving balance is in Illyrio’s favor, he cannot compel Drogo to act as soon as he might wish. 

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“Now,” the knight said, “I am less certain. They are better riders than any knight, utterly fearless, and their bows outrange ours. In the Seven Kingdoms, most archers fight on foot, from behind a shieldwall or a barricade of sharpened stakes. The Dothraki fire from horseback, charging or retreating, it makes no matter, they are full as deadly … and there are so many of them, my lady. Your lord husband alone counts forty thousand mounted warriors in his khalasar.”

“Is that truly so many?” 

“Your brother Rhaegar brought as many men to the Trident,” Ser Jorah admitted, “but of that number, no more than a tenth were knights. The rest were archers, freeriders, and foot soldiers armed with spears and pikes. When Rhaegar fell, many threw down their weapons and fled the field. How long do you imagine such a rabble would stand against the charge of forty thousand screamers howling for blood? How well would boiled leather jerkins and mailed shirts protect them when the arrows fall like rain?”

 

When Daenerys VI Game 54 opens, Viserys has already been "crowned," but interestingly Illyrio does not yet know this. Presumably Jorah would have sent word back, but not before Varys's would-be assassin departed with the caravan out of Pentos.

Daenerys attempts to persade Drogo into winning the Iron Throne for their son, but Drogo refuses, expressing no desire to cross the Narrow Sea. We have to wonder whether Drogo is still just delaying to honor a commitment to Illyrio until the birth of his heir, or whether Drogo believes that his end of the bargain is moot now that Viserys is dead. 

In any event, Jorah is anxious to meet a newly arrived caravan from Pentos to see if Illyrio has sent any communication. He shrugs off Daenerys, though, preferring to see the caravan captain alone. 

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A dozen caravan guards had come running. With them was the master himself, Merchant Captain Byan Votyris, a diminutive Norvoshi with skin like old leather and a bristling blue mustachio that swept up to his ears. He seemed to know what had happened without a word being spoken. 

Note  that the caravan captain was not surprised. Does this mean he was in on it? Was he a fail safe in case Jorah could not prevent the assassination? 

In the wake of the attempt, Drogo vows...

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“And to Rhaego son of Drogo, the stallion who will mount the world, to him I also pledge a gift. To him I will give this iron chair his mother’s father sat in. I will give him Seven Kingdoms. I, Drogo, khal, will do this thing.” His voice rose, and he lifted his fist to the sky. “I will take my khalasar west to where the world ends, and ride the wooden horses across the black salt water as no khal has done before. I will kill the men in the iron suits and tear down their stone houses. I will rape their women, take their children as slaves, and bring their broken gods back to Vaes Dothrak to bow down beneath the Mother of Mountains. This I vow, I, Drogo son of Bharbo. This I swear before the Mother of Mountains, as the stars look down in witness.”

Is this what Illyrio and Varys intended? Keep in mind that when the bargain was struck, Viserys was alive. When the assassination was ordered but set up to be foiled, Viserys was alive. When Drogo vowed to conquer the Seven Kingdoms for Rhaego, Viserys was already dead. 

In any event, this foreseeable vow by Drogo gives rise to the idea that the fat man's plan was to have Drogo break the Seven Kingdoms, and then have Aegon come in and mop up the mess. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Lost Melnibonean

[divica]

22 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In Daenerys I, Game 3, we learn that Illyrio has been aiding the Targlings and showering them with gifts for the past six months. Illyrio, who speaks Dothraki, has brokered a betrothal between Drogo, khal of the greatest of the Dothraki khalasars, and Daenerys, that will benefit Viserys’s claim to the Iron Throne...

Notice that Viserys suggests that he does not need Drogo’s entire khalasar of one hundred thousand, including forty thousand fighters, to make good his claim; Viserys believes he only needs ten thousand. This suggests that a higher number of Drogo’s warriors were promised, or at least contemplated, but Viserys seems to want, or have been promised, only ten thousand. 

In Daenerys II, Game 11, we also learn that, through Illyrio, Khal Drogo has promised Viserys a crown. While this is a foreshadowing of the crown of molten gold Drogo actually gives Viserys, the passage clearly suggests to the reader that Drogo has bargained for his bride by promising to support materially Viserys’s claim. But we can only trust Illyrio so far. So, whether Drogo actually promised to support Viserys’s claim in exchange for his Targaryen bride, or Drogo actually promised Illyrio a number of Dothraki fighters, or Illyrio brokered the marriage to secure Drogo’s friendship in hopes of obtaining his material support, we cannot know with certainty. In any event, Illyrio tells us that Drogo will not aid Viserys until after he presents Daenerys to the dosh khaleen, and then, only “if the omens favor war," suggesting that Viserys should be prepared to wait “another few years." And notice that Jorah supports Illyrio in his counsel to Viserys. 

A bit later, we encounter the three egg MacGuffins...

We are told expressly that these three dragon’s eggs are ancient, petrified eggs from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai, and we recall that Illyrio is a trader in dragonbone with a trading network that stretches to the fabled lands beside the Jade Sea. 

We also learn that the three dragon’s eggs are worth the fortune in horses and slaves that Illyrio collected from Drogo for brokering the marriage pact. Does this mean that Illyrio gave Daenerys to Drogo, so Drogo gave Illyrio a fortune in horses and slaves? If so, then Drogo would not “owe” Viserys a crown, would he? On the other hand, should we believe that Daenerys’s property was, in fact, the property of her husband and khal, and that by giving Daenerys such “a truly magnificent gift,” that Illyrio had upset the gift-giving balance back in his favor? 

Keep in mind this could be nothing more than a plot device. In his 1993 letter, outlining his earliest concept of A Song of Ice and Fire, we see that The George initially intended to have Daenerys stumble upon a nest of petrified dragon’s eggs on the edge of the Dothraki Sea. 

In Eddard II, Game 12, King Robert informs Lord Eddard that Lord Varys has sent word of the wedding. Very curiously, the source of the information is revealed to be Jorah, who Robert claims “is now in Pentos, anxious to earn a royal pardon that would allow him to return from exile," and that "Lord Varys makes good use of him." Now, we can connect Illyrio and Jorah to Varys. Of course, the casual first-time reader should assume here that Jorah is Varys’s agent spying on Illyrio and the Targlings for King Robert. But given what we learn later, we know that Varys is actually a double agent in league with Illyrio, and thus using information from Jorah to influence events at court.

Back in Daenerys I, Game 3, we learned that Rhaegar’s heir was murdered during the sack of King’s Landing. Here Eddard informs us “that Rhaegar's little girl had cried as they dragged her from beneath her bed to face the swords. The boy had been no more than a babe in arms, yet Lord Tywin's soldiers had torn him from his mother's breast and dashed his head against a wall.”

Despite Robert’s hatred of all Targaryens, we learn that he did not send assassins after the Targlings as Viserys suspected; but rather Jon Arryn had persuaded him not to do so. When Eddard pointed out that there was not much they could do about it anyway, Robert agreed . . .

This is very confusing: If the Dothraki hate and fear the open sea, why would Drogo agree to send tens of thousands of Dothraki fighters to help Viserys, or any other claimant, to claim the Iron Throne across the Narrow Sea?

Daenerys recalls an important scene involving Illyrio and her brother in Daenerys III, Game 23...

So, Illyrio wanted Viserys to remain in Pentos. I do not subscribe to the reverse psychology theory, which posits that Illyrio wanted Viserys to go off and die in the Dothraki Sea, so he told him to stay in Pentos. That’s cockamamie to my mind. Illyrio’s blink suggests that he was surprised by Viserys’s intention to go with Drogo. Illyrio clearly expected Viserys to remain in Pentos, where Illyrio could ply him with Lysene bed slaves and Arbor gold.

But here is an interesting question: If Viserys had remained in Pentos, would Jorah have gone with Daenerys? He swore his sword to Viserys after all. I suspect that The George did not work this out completely. We know that Daenerys is off to become the Mother of Dragons and the head of a motley host of Dothraki, unsullied, and freedmen, as well as a collection of sellswords, and possibly even Victarion’s Ironmen. And we know that the George, against Illyrio’s wishes, wanted Viserys to get his molten crown in Vaes Dothrak. And, in that way, the George would have Jorah go with Drogo, eventually siding with Daenerys, but keeping tabs on her for Illyrio until they reach Qarth. 

In Arya III, Game 32, we see Illyrio, incognito, one more time before we meet him again, much later, with Tyrion in Dance. Here we learn that Varys is in league with Illyrio.

This tells us that Varys does not want Eddard to discover the truth of the “twincest.”

Here we see that Varys believes that the fools, plural, meaning Cersei, Jaime, and Tyrion, attempted to assassinate Bran. But we learn by the “purple wedding” that it was Joffrey. In any event, we see that Varys has a great deal of respect for Eddard’s fortitude, if not for his cunning.

Notice who gives the command: Illyrio, and who follows the order: Varys. Varys is working for Illyrio, not the other way around. 

I love this exchange. When the casual, first-time reader reads this, he understands the Hand in question to be Jon Arryn, and that Varys must have caused Jon Arryn’s death, especially since we just learned that he does not want the new Hand learning about the “twincest,” and we learn as we read, that Jon was killed after learning about the “twincest.” But substitute another Jon, Jon Connington, in for Jon Arryn, and you can see what Illyrio might have been suggesting: That Varys attempt to co-opt Eddard into their ulterior plot. 

Recall, that Drogo will not aid Viserys until after he presents Daenerys to the dosh khaleen, and then, only “if the omens favor war." Perhaps, this was what the author was hinting at when he had Illyrio tell Viserys that he would have to wait. Perhaps Illyrio understood that the real gift to Drogo was not a Targaryen bride, but a dragonlord heir, the stallion who mounts the world.

Varys urges his master to hasten Drogo’s material support of their ulterior plot. 

Is Varys frustrated by Illyrio's patience? Perhaps Varys exercises initiative not intended by Illyrio...  In Eddard VIII, Game 33, we learn that Jorah has informed Varys, presumably through Illyrio, that Daenerys is pregnant. amd Varys counsels Robert to have Daenerys and her unborn heir assassinated. 

In Daenerys IV, Game 36, the Targlings enter Vaes Dothrak, and Jorah expands our understanding of Dothraki gift-giving...

This seems to reinforce the idea that Varys, and Illyrio, need to provoke Drogo into action since, even if the gift giving balance is in Illyrio’s favor, he cannot compel Drogo to act as soon as he might wish. 

When Daenerys VI Game 54 opens, Viserys has already been "crowned," but interestingly Illyrio does not yet know this. Presumably Jorah would have sent word back, but not before Varys's would-be assassin departed with the caravan out of Pentos.

Daenerys attempts to persade Drogo into winning the Iron Throne for their son, but Drogo refuses, expressing no desire to cross the Narrow Sea. We have to wonder whether Drogo is still just delaying to honor a commitment to Illyrio until the birth of his heir, or whether Drogo believes that his end of the bargain is moot now that Viserys is dead. 

In any event, Jorah is anxious to meet a newly arrived caravan from Pentos to see if Illyrio has sent any communication. He shrugs off Daenerys, though, preferring to see the caravan captain alone. 

Note  that the caravan captain was not surprised. Does this mean he was in on it? Was he a fail safe in case Jorah could not prevent the assassination? 

In the wake of the attempt, Drogo vows...

Is this what Illyrio and Varys intended? Keep in mind that when the bargain was struck, Viserys was alive. When the assassination was ordered but set up to be foiled, Viserys was alive. When Drogo vowed to conquer the Seven Kingdoms for Rhaego, Viserys was already dead. 

In any event, this foreseeable vow by Drogo gives rise to the idea that the fat man's plan was to have Drogo break the Seven Kingdoms, and then have Aegon come in and mop up the mess. 

By points.

Viserys believes he only needs 10k men because he thinks other lords will pledge themselves to him when he arrives in westeros with a decent force. There doesn't need to be more hidden reasons for his thoughts...

As can be seen in the several passages you quoted drogo clearly promised to help viserys conquer the IT. at most we don't know how much help drogo promised to give because a few thousand dothriaki could satisfy viserys and varys/ilyrio ambitions.

In regards to the eggs it is clearly a plothole. iliryo could have used them to pay for mercenaries that would suport viserys at any time he wanted. There is no need to make the complex plan of marrying danny to the dothriaki... It is simillar as to why jon got longclaw instead of darksister that was last seen near the wall... Or the justifications for joffrey trying to kill bran... I am sorry, but either because a lot of lore didn't exist at the time (darksister) or because grrm changed the story over the years there are things that now don't make sense.

Drogo agreed to suport viserys because he married danny. This is clearly stated... So despite their fear of the ocean in exchange for danny they would travel to westeros. In regards to viserys staying behind it makes complete sense. iliryo wanted to keep him safe until drogo did his savage rituals and returned with an army ready to support viserys claim. And viserys could have ordered jorah to be his representative among the dothriaki ensuring they keep their word... It realy isn't that interesting or important...

 

In regards to the conversation between varys and ilyrio it sounds more like a conversation between allies than between master and servant. I don't think ilyrio even gives a single order. He simply asks varys to do things or gives his opinion...

The probem with your jon con theory is that ilyrio is clearly saying for varys to kill the hand and we know jon con isn't dead. And certainly nobody expects ned to fake his death and abandon his familly and the north to follow their plan against his best friend... At most you can search if there was a hand in aerys time that died of misterious circunstances. THAT could work.

Finally, wether viserys was dead or alive was kind of irelevant. They needed the dothriaki to invade westeros. It doesn't matter if they do it because of viserys, danny, rhaego or out of revenge. 

 

[astarkchoice]

8 hours ago, divica said:

By points.

-Viserys believes he only needs 10k men because he thinks other lords will pledge themselves to him when he arrives in westeros with a decent force. There doesn't need to be more hidden reasons for his thoughts...

-As can be seen in the several passages you quoted drogo clearly promised to help viserys conquer the IT. at most we don't know how much help drogo promised to give because a few thousand dothriaki could satisfy viserys and varys/ilyrio ambitions.

-In regards to the eggs it is clearly a plothole. iliryo could have used them to pay for mercenaries that would suport viserys at any time he wanted. There is no need to make the complex plan of marrying danny to the dothriaki... It is simillar as to why jon got longclaw instead of darksister that was last seen near the wall... Or the justifications for joffrey trying to kill bran... I am sorry, but either because a lot of lore didn't exist at the time (darksister) or because grrm changed the story over the years there are things that now don't make sense.

-Drogo agreed to suport viserys because he married danny. This is clearly stated... So despite their fear of the ocean in exchange for danny they would travel to westeros. In regards to viserys staying behind it makes complete sense. iliryo wanted to keep him safe until drogo did his savage rituals and returned with an army ready to support viserys claim. And viserys could have ordered jorah to be his representative among the dothriaki ensuring they keep their word... It realy isn't that interesting or important...

 

-In regards to the conversation between varys and ilyrio it sounds more like a conversation between allies than between master and servant. I don't think ilyrio even gives a single order. He simply asks varys to do things or gives his opinion...

-The probem with your jon con theory is that ilyrio is clearly saying for varys to kill the hand and we know jon con isn't dead. And certainly nobody expects ned to fake his death and abandon his familly and the north to follow their plan against his best friend... At most you can search if there was a hand in aerys time that died of misterious circunstances. THAT could work.

-Finally, wether viserys was dead or alive was kind of irelevant. They needed the dothriaki to invade westeros. It doesn't matter if they do it because of viserys, danny, rhaego or out of revenge. 

 

-agreed there he talked to the golden company on his own and felt they alone would be enough too, he and dany are at 1st fillwd with delusions that all the smallfolk in westeros want them back ,how the rebels were evil traitors and viserys may remeber his proposed marriage alliance to dorne.

-he promised him an army....now the dothraki fear the sea AND will not follow weak leaders which is def viserys , drogo himself cannot go and leave behimd his khalassar and im pretty sure splitting command between viseryd and a bloodrider wont work either......it strikes me drogos original plan to pay for his exotic wife is to continue to unite all the dothraki under him, sweep the lands for slaves (massive khallasar will pick up vast numbers of slaves) and intimidate walled cities into huge tributes ( again big khalasaar outside= bigger tribute)  and once he had enough to simply get viserys 10k or more sellsword force and sellsails to bring them across the water = his word honoured and no dothraki forced to serve an idiot princeling or cross the posion water!

-agreed but bear in mind iyrio sends dany 3 boats loaded with   rare valuables  which she used to try and buy unsullied so the eggs probably wont add that much to it (just as her rare crown didnt either..only 100 extra eunchs)

-agreed here

-yeah it really soinds like 2 allies plotting

-it does just sound like hes suggesting to have ned killed , varys is waving it away as jon arryns death could be waved off as an old man dying but a fit healthy man like ned with 0 vices would be highly suspect

-i think the original plan was to have viserys and the threat of the dothraki to please the golden company and get lords in westeros talking (thus  varys can judge support) but keep it long term while varys slowly builds a war among the allies who overthrew the targs.

The problem is plans melt in the face of reality , LF kicks off war earlier, roberts attempt on dany means drogo wants to take all his khalasar to westeros and thennlater dany wanders east etc. Even th seemingly reliable young griff attacks ahead of the adjsuted  schedule  they want.

[three-eyed monkey]

The way I see it Varys and Illyrio are thieves and confidence tricksters. Illyrio even told Tyrion how their scheme works.

Quote

"Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city's footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they'd stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice."

Their scheme is quite simple. Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings, while Illyrio offered to help the victims recover their valuables for a fee. They both grew rich and Illyrio grew respectable, while other thieves sought out Varys to either slit his throat or sell him what they had stolen.

Then they started leaving the gold and gems for common thieves, while they stole information instead. Secrets are worth more than silver and sapphires.

In King’s Landing, after the sack, the lesser thieves that Varys was spying on were those who had stolen the throne, the Usurper and his dogs. Meanwhile Illyrio offered to help the victims, the Targaryens, recover their valuables for a fee.

The takings of these lesser thieves were the Iron Throne and the Seven Kingdoms. This is where the value of secrets becomes apparent because that’s how Varys would take the lesser thieves’ takings, by revealing the truth about Robert’s children and thus driving a wedge between Baratheon and Lannister, but only when the time was right. That’s why others who might uncover the secret too soon, like Jon Arryn and Ned, were a problem. The timing of the war that the secret would inevitably provoke would have to be right.

Jorah told Dany that the arrival of the Dothraki would only unite the realm. Clearly no one in Westeros would want a Dothraki horde coming ashore. The secret would be used to provoke an internal war that prevented any such unity when Viserys and the Dothraki were ready to invade. Illyrio and Varys didn't want an internal war, like the one brewing between the wolf and the lion, to come until Viserys was ready.

No one wanted the Dothraki, but they only had a part to play in the scheme. A bigger problem for Illyrio and Varys was that no one would want Viserys as king either. Jorah said as much to Dany and when she thought about it she had to agree. Barristan remembers that even at a young age Viserys showed signs that he was the Mad King’s son. And Willem Darry? It’s odd he never told Viserys about the marriage pact with Dorne, even on his death bed. I think he decided to spare the realm a lot of blood.

Illyrio and Varys would have known that Viserys was a bad horse to back because the Seven Kingdoms did not want another Mad King. Even if Viserys won the throne, how long would he have held it for before the realm rose against him, as it had against his father. Viserys was not a sustainable investment. In the eyes of Illyrio and Varys, Viserys was never a king, just a pawn they led to believe the realm would rise for when he returned. And pawns are expendable. If the Targaryens were to return, then the son of Rhaegar, not Aerys, would be smarter the horse to back.

Illyrio’s guards stopped Viserys from trying to take Dany’s maidenhead before she married Drogo. Illyrio said that if Viserys had succeeded, he would have ruined years of planning. Surely it did not take years of planning to arrange the marriage to Drogo, so this refers to a wider plan that was in motion before Viserys and Dany came into Illyrio’s care.

The Golden Company also lost something valuable, their lands and titles in Westeros, and a century of trying to regain them had ended in multiple failures. But if you wanted your valuables back, then it was known in Essos that Illyro was the man you needed to see. We know Illyrio’s plot with the Golden company goes back a dozen years at least, to when they recruited Jon Connington.

Dany remembered that when she was young Viserys feasted the Golden Company in the hope that he might persuade them to take up his cause, but they laughed at him. Yet they had no problem with Viserys joining them with his Dothraki, when that was the plan. It's not that they had a change of heart towards King Viserys, but rather that they understood that he was a pawn and Aegon the king. A return to Westeros under King Viserys was not likely to last long.

Jon Connington and Aegon himself believe he is Rhaegar’s son, some speculate that he is secretly a Blackfyre, either could be true but the boy could just as easily be the pisswater prince for all it matters. Power resides where men believe it resides, according to Varys. It’s just a trick.

Aegon is the king Illyrio and Varys want to put on the throne, the one they groomed to rule from a young age. Aegon could be real or fake, their scheme works either way. Primarily he’s who Illyrio and Varys need him to be to make the scheme work - a Targaryen king the realm will support, returning lands and titles to the exiles who helped him win the throne and in the process allowing Illyrio to return his client’s lost valuables. Illyrio gains the kings favor and grows his influence in Westeros as much as he did in Essos, while half the lesser thieves like Cersei seek out Varys to slit his throat and the other half to sell him back what they had stolen, which in this context means turn their cloaks back to Targaryen.

Dany, who Illyrio once used as coin in his plan, has now become the main threat to the Fat Man’s plan, given that she has a claim to rival Aegon’s and the dragons to back it. Illyrio might have hoped to marry Aegon and Dany, but now that Aegon has sailed west to claim the throne without her, he surely hopes the slavers will end her in Meereen. The plan continues to change to meet the circumstance, but the goal of putting Aegon on the throne has remained the same.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/17/2023 at 10:42 AM, divica said:

This probably will never happen, but it would pretty cool.

It reminds me about the theories that mance rider was the one that payed the catspaw to kill bran. And then grrm crushes us with some stupid joffrey did it for reasons that barely make sense...

Eh, there's quite a bit to back it up if you look closely.

[John Suburbs]

On 4/17/2023 at 11:04 AM, astarkchoice said:

You posted all this theory in another thread and it was ripped to shreds. 

It cannot take down the Ib, if the ib did somehow fall other smaller banks would fill the buisness gaps, the ib collapsw wouldnt stop bravos trading or being a naval.superpower,pentos is already subtely trading slaves there isnt much more money to be made doing it openly,pentos is already doing as much naval trade as they possibly can handle,varys not knowing about ilyrios plans  is stupid , lf working with him for 0 gain is dumb and varys working agaisnt lf if they could 10x more efffective  as partners is insanely wasteful and daft !  nor can Lf Gain control of any ports  as he owns no ports nor is he even master of coin anymore!!  

Ilyrio has already said when faegon is king he will be master of coin...that and seeing his son(or someone he adores as son) as king is his payoff!

Other smaller banks would fill the gaps. So what? Illyrio would be the first to capitalize on that, and no one is in a better position to trade with Westeros than him. 

The IB collapse would send the Braavosi economy into the gutter. It's the only place we know of that uses a proxy currency. No economy means no army, no navy, no merchant fleet, no money to pay shipbuilders or crews or captains, no money to buy goods to sell them at higher prices elsewhere . . . It would bring complete social upheaval. All the wealth is gone in an instant.

Pentos is not doing as much trade as possible. Braavos dominates trade on the Narrow Sea. Opportunities for Pentos would open like daises on a spring day if Braavos is removed -- just like Braavos thrived after the Doom

Varys not knowing Illyrio's full scheme is perfectly in line with the political subterfuge that permeates the story. It's no more stupid than Ned not knowing what Petyr or Varys are up to or Cersei not know what Tyrion is plotting. There are players and there are pieces, and sometimes the players are pieces and don't know it.

Varys is not working for 0 gain. He wants to put Aegon on the throne. That's his gain. But that is not Illyrios true aim. That alone, in fact, would provide 0 gain for Illyrio. Master of Coin? Why on earth would a man with Illyrio's wealth and power want to count coppers for a snotty teenage? The Sealord said his cat was a rare and exotic beast.

Petyr is Lord Protector of the Vale, which has Gulltown. He is also Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Trident, which brings him Saltpans, Maindenpool and Fairmarket. And he has Sansa, who is the rightful Lady of Winterfell, which brings White Harbor. So that's five. The only remaining port is King's Landing, which will likely be a shell of a city once the Iron Throne is no more and the realm has devolved back into seven independent kingdoms.

So sorry, but no one has shredded anything. 

 

 

[divica]

4 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Other smaller banks would fill the gaps. So what? Illyrio would be the first to capitalize on that, and no one is in a better position to trade with Westeros than him. 

The IB collapse would send the Braavosi economy into the gutter. It's the only place we know of that uses a proxy currency. No economy means no army, no navy, no merchant fleet, no money to pay shipbuilders or crews or captains, no money to buy goods to sell them at higher prices elsewhere . . . It would bring complete social upheaval. All the wealth is gone in an instant.

Pentos is not doing as much trade as possible. Braavos dominates trade on the Narrow Sea. Opportunities for Pentos would open like daises on a spring day if Braavos is removed -- just like Braavos thrived after the Doom

Varys not knowing Illyrio's full scheme is perfectly in line with the political subterfuge that permeates the story. It's no more stupid than Ned not knowing what Petyr or Varys are up to or Cersei not know what Tyrion is plotting. There are players and there are pieces, and sometimes the players are pieces and don't know it.

Varys is not working for 0 gain. He wants to put Aegon on the throne. That's his gain. But that is not Illyrios true aim. That alone, in fact, would provide 0 gain for Illyrio. Master of Coin? Why on earth would a man with Illyrio's wealth and power want to count coppers for a snotty teenage? The Sealord said his cat was a rare and exotic beast.

Petyr is Lord Protector of the Vale, which has Gulltown. He is also Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Trident, which brings him Saltpans, Maindenpool and Fairmarket. And he has Sansa, who is the rightful Lady of Winterfell, which brings White Harbor. So that's five. The only remaining port is King's Landing, which will likely be a shell of a city once the Iron Throne is no more and the realm has devolved back into seven independent kingdoms.

So sorry, but no one has shredded anything. 

 

 

IT could be simpler. ilyrio could have a plot to use the fall of the IB to gain power in several free cities and then use his influence to make them join westeros and make a huge empire for faegon. The interesting part here is having a character planning an economic atack in order to seize power in some way. And that it would be a good story arc for LF.

 

41 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Eh, there's quite a bit to back it up if you look closely.

what there is to back it up is pretty forced and exposed shortly before the reveal so that the author can say there was a justification for it. The "joffrey did it" was a lame choice and has several plotholes...

[astarkchoice]

20 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Other smaller banks would fill the gaps. So what? Illyrio would be the first to capitalize on that, and no one is in a better position to trade with Westeros than him. 

The IB collapse would send the Braavosi economy into the gutter. It's the only place we know of that uses a proxy currency. No economy means no army, no navy, no merchant fleet, no money to pay shipbuilders or crews or captains, no money to buy goods to sell them at higher prices elsewhere . . . It would bring complete social upheaval. All the wealth is gone in an instant.

Pentos is not doing as much trade as possible. Braavos dominates trade on the Narrow Sea. Opportunities for Pentos would open like daises on a spring day if Braavos is removed -- just like Braavos thrived after the Doom

Varys not knowing Illyrio's full scheme is perfectly in line with the political subterfuge that permeates the story. It's no more stupid than Ned not knowing what Petyr or Varys are up to or Cersei not know what Tyrion is plotting. There are players and there are pieces, and sometimes the players are pieces and don't know it.

Varys is not working for 0 gain. He wants to put Aegon on the throne. That's his gain. But that is not Illyrios true aim. That alone, in fact, would provide 0 gain for Illyrio. Master of Coin? Why on earth would a man with Illyrio's wealth and power want to count coppers for a snotty teenage? The Sealord said his cat was a rare and exotic beast.

Petyr is Lord Protector of the Vale, which has Gulltown. He is also Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Trident, which brings him Saltpans, Maindenpool and Fairmarket. And he has Sansa, who is the rightful Lady of Winterfell, which brings White Harbor. So that's five. The only remaining port is King's Landing, which will likely be a shell of a city once the Iron Throne is no more and the realm has devolved back into seven independent kingdoms.

So sorry, but no one has shredded anything. 

 

 

Hes not a rich as the other banks nor is he set up as a bank thus he cannot fill that gap as well as other banks  or the 100s of other rich traders , not that the IB will collapse anyway nor would the faceless men (whos spy network will have easily penetrated vary abd ilyrios) allow such a plot to get as far.

Erm  virtualy every free city has its own currency nor does the collapse of  the biggest bank in bravos collapse its economy to nothing !!! goods and services will still be traded and even if bravos currency was  somehow now  default due to IB collapse   theres at least a dozen other currencies  flowing around to trade in anyway  before we talk gold, silver, precious stones , rare goods or straight bartering!!!

Erm pentos IS trading in slaves, doing it openly doesnt add a giant amount more to their economy  nor can bravos giant almaot unfair  advantage at sea be nulified by anything and shit even if they went the way of valyria theres still all the other free cities!!! Volantis  giant navy and harbour would fill most of that gap not  a mid  level player  like pentos!!

Ned wasnt  political player nor did he have  a vast army of spies, ilyrio and varys came up together with varys being the spylord and ilyrio the moneyman not the otherway round!! Its also be stupid to have varys and lf expending so much energy competing if they both had the same ally

 

Huh? Why would a rich merchant want to run the economy of a the 7 kingdoms....is that a serious question!!! Theres no such laws agaisnt insider trading back then so that alone! Ilyrios chief export is described as cheesmonger so if he drops the tax on that alone and/or increases it on rivals hed be swimming in gold.

Thats one port (white harbour is the maderlys who awnser to boltons )  even then valetown isnt  fully his nor did you  that include the ports or oldtown or lannisport or the iron islands , arbour etc nor was control  any of that (bar maybe valetown) predictable from lfs standing as young man!!

[Craving Peaches]

Illyrio as a merchant looses out if the Seven Kingdoms split up again anyway.

[divica]

2 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

Hes not a rich as the other banks nor is he set up as a bank thus he cannot fill that gap as well as other banks  or the 100s of other rich traders , not that the IB will collapse anyway nor would the faceless men (whos spy network will have easily penetrated vary abd ilyrios) allow such a plot to get as far.

Erm  virtualy every free city has its own currency nor does the collapse of  the biggest bank in bravos collapse its economy to nothing !!! goods and services will still be traded and even if bravos currency was  somehow now  default due to IB collapse   theres at least a dozen other currencies  flowing around to trade in anyway  before we talk gold, silver, precious stones , rare goods or straight bartering!!!

Erm pentos IS trading in slaves, doing it openly doesnt add a giant amount more to their economy  nor can bravos giant almaot unfair  advantage at sea be nulified by anything and shit even if they went the way of valyria theres still all the other free cities!!! Volantis  giant navy and harbour would fill most of that gap not  a mid  level player  like pentos!!

Ned wasnt  political player nor did he have  a vast army of spies, ilyrio and varys came up together with varys being the spylord and ilyrio the moneyman not the otherway round!! Its also be stupid to have varys and lf expending so much energy competing if they both had the same ally

 

Huh? Why would a rich merchant want to run the economy of a the 7 kingdoms....is that a serious question!!! Theres no such laws agaisnt insider trading back then so that alone! Ilyrios chief export is described as cheesmonger so if he drops the tax on that alone and/or increases it on rivals hed be swimming in gold.

Thats one port (white harbour is the maderlys who awnser to boltons )  even then valetown isnt  fully his nor did you  that include the ports or oldtown or lannisport or the iron islands , arbour etc nor was control  any of that (bar maybe valetown) predictable from lfs standing as young man!!

Actually I remember an old topic about how essos economy might be pretty bad because of danny's actions. And even if bravos doesn't deal with slaves the IB deals with people that used to deal with slaves. And it seems will even worse in the future with the war in mereen, the red priests gaining power, volantis getting involved, cities being destroyed...

If you add all the things that are happening it makes sense for the IB to bankrupt.

 

[frenin]

On 4/17/2023 at 2:04 AM, Crona said:

We are just going to have to disagree here, I have just a different interpretation of things. I think George had put that line with Tristan Rivers there for the readers to understand Illyrio's movements (and his own). Maybe in AGOT, he did not have all of the plans fleshed out, but by ADWD he definitely wanted us to think this was Illyrio's and Drogo's deal. In AGOT, maybe he was toying with a different idea for Drogo but by ADWD, it appears (to me) the deal between them was 50k dothraki. 

I find this kinda arguments weak honestly, we ought to simply ignore the first book and go by what we're told recently, eh, hard pass.

That's why people believe Tywin was planning on killing or taking Ned prisoner, when it makes zero sense either.

 

On 4/17/2023 at 2:04 AM, Crona said:

Your interpretation is that Illyrio lied to the Golden Company and had given Dany (and 3 dragons eggs) for 10k dothraki.  If the deal was to give Viserys 10k dothraki, why didn't he give it to Viserys? And when the Golden Company realize this, they would just have to deal with it. This is also for a war that he wants to crown Aegon/Viserys.

The eggs were  just expensive jewelry with ssome added symbolism till they hatched.

[The Commentator]

The plan was flexible and thus changeable. They were even undecided whether to kill Ned or not. The number of variables outside their control were too much for a firm plan. 
 

I believe Viserys was going to get the throne because it was his by right. Now the dragon eggs are the real puzzle. I am thinking the Sealords have been the custodians of the eggs. They were waiting for the proper Targaryen to come along and bring them back to life. They too must have prophecies guiding them.  How the Sealord convinced Illyrio to give them to Daenerys is mysterious but he did.  There are many hidden forces at work in Westeros moving pieces. I think it is the same in Essos.  Somebody recognized Daenerys and moved people around to make sure she got the eggs. Somebody is following prophecies like scripts.  This is probably the Sealord.  He had plan 1 to marry Viserys to Artianne. He had plan 2 in case Doran is too chicken to play.  Only somebody with godlike powers and devoted cult like following can end slavery.  He meant Daenerys to become that person, Mhysa.  

[frenin]

18 hours ago, divica said:

This is clearly stated.

Drogo never says this.

 

[astarkchoice]

1 hour ago, divica said:

Actually I remember an old topic about how essos economy might be pretty bad because of danny's actions. And even if bravos doesn't deal with slaves the IB deals with people that used to deal with slaves. And it seems will even worse in the future with the war in mereen, the red priests gaining power, volantis getting involved, cities being destroyed...

If you add all the things that are happening it makes sense for the IB to bankrupt.

 

Ilyrio could not  in a million years have predicted dany would wage a sucessful war on slavery though..we are told time and again she does things hes not expecting!

If slavery is abolished then the free city thats done without and is already a more modern  capitalistic economy(bravos)  will be best placed to take advantage thus the IB will take a hit and also a boost..if anything the dozens of smaller banks in the slavery dependant free cities (soon to have slave uprisings too) are far more likely to fold than the IB  at all.

Edited April 18, 2023 by astarkchoice

[divica]

1 hour ago, astarkchoice said:

Ilyrio could not  in a million years have predicted dany would wage a sucessful war on slavery though..we are told time and again she does things hes not expecting!

If slavery is abolished then the free city thats done without and is already a more modern  capitalistic economy(bravos)  will be best placed to take advantage thus the IB will take a hit and also a boost..if anything the dozens of smaller banks in the slavery dependant free cities (soon to have slave uprisings too) are far more likely to fold than the IB  at all.

Quote

"Not by intent, no, but Qarth is a city of merchants, and they love the clink of silver coins, the gleam of yellow gold. When you smashed the slave trade, the blow was felt from Westeros to Asshai. Qarth depends upon its slaves. So too Tolos, New Ghis, Lys, Tyrosh, Volantis … the list is long, my queen."

The problem here is that either directly or indirectly slaves are a fundamental part of essosi economy. If most people of essos have financial problems then a bank that does business with a lot of people in essos (not only bravosi) should have problems.

And even bravos certainly imports or exports products to or from people involved in the slave business. The price of everything is about to change in essos. It will be chaos!

[Mourning Star]

The Fat Man's Plan has by necessity changed.

 Illyrio smirked. "Contracts can be broken."
"There is more coin in cheese than I knew," said Tyrion. "How did you accomplish that?"
The magister waggled his fat fingers. "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more."

We can talk about this in two ways, how it changed in the story due to plot events, and how the author took a gardeners approach to writing the story.

He moved with surprising delicacy for such a massive man. Beneath loose garments of flame-colored silk, rolls of fat jiggled as he walked. Gemstones glittered on every finger, and his man had oiled his forked yellow beard until it shone like real gold.

In my opinion, Illyrio is the seed from which the Blackfyre rebellion plotline grew. In short, I suspect he is the descendent of Bittersteel and Calla Blackfyre. Beneath the gold, the bitter steal.

Whatever Illyrio's original plan was, if he intended Viserys to ever make it to Westeros, let alone sit the Iron Throne, were thrown out when the Beggar King was crowned with molten gold.

But, I want to take a step back and talk about Illyrio's business and one connection I do not see mentioned above, or speculated wildly about enough.

Varys and Illyrio began working together as part of a scheme in Pentos.

Varys spied on lesser thieves and took their takings. I offered my help to their victims, promising to recover their valuables for a fee. Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city's footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they'd stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice.
"In King's Landing he kept little birds."
"Mice, we called them then. The older thieves were fools who thought no further than turning a night's plunder into wine. Varys preferred orphan boys and young girls. He chose the smallest, the ones who were quick and quiet, and taught them to climb walls and slip down chimneys. He taught them to read as well. We left the gold and gems for common thieves. Instead our mice stole letters, ledgers, charts … later, they would read them and leave them where they lay. Secrets are worth more than silver or sapphires, Varys claimed. Just so. I grew so respectable that a cousin of the Prince of Pentos let me wed his maiden daughter, whilst whispers of a certain eunuch's talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant and overproud. I do believe that you know the rest of this tale, is that not so?"

Illyrio grew wildly rich as the Cheesemonger for the secrets discovered by Varys's mice, and is seemingly now one of (if not the) most powerful people in Pentos.

When he is introduced in Dany's first chapter we are told.

Magister Illyrio was a dealer in spices, gemstones, dragonbone, and other, less savory things. He had friends in all of the Nine Free Cities, it was said, and even beyond, in Vaes Dothrak and the fabled lands beside the Jade Sea. It was also said that he'd never had a friend he wouldn't cheerfully sell for the right price.

There is no slavery in the free city of Pentos. Nonetheless, there are slaves. Illyrio hasn't abandoned his criminal roots, it would seem.

It would also seem that Illyrio's money is now largely in trade.

Arya gives us a glimpse into part of the shipping business of Essos, which Illyrio is doubtlessly involved in.

Cat did not understand. "They pay him gold and silver, but he only gives them writing. Are they stupid?"
"A few, mayhaps. Most are simply cautious. Some think to cozen him. He is not a man easily cozened, however."
"But what is he selling them?"
"He is writing each a binder. If their ships are lost in a storm or taken by pirates, he promises to pay them for the value of the vessel and all its contents."
"Is it some kind of wager?"
"Of a sort. A wager every captain hopes to lose."
"Yes, but if they win …"
"… they lose their ships, oftimes their very lives. The seas are dangerous, and never more so than in autumn. No doubt many a captain sinking in a storm has taken some small solace in his binder back in Braavos, knowing that his widow and children will not want." A sad smile touched his lips. "It is one thing to write such a binder, though, and another to make good on it."

The example above illustrates one sort of fraud that can involve what amounts to insurance here.

I would suggest that Illyrio is abusing this system in another way.

Salladhor Saan was not aboard his Valyrian. They found him at another quay a quarter mile distant, down in the hold of a big-bellied Pentoshi cog named Bountiful Harvest, counting cargo with two eunuchs. One held a lantern, the other a wax tablet and stylus. "Thirty-seven, thirty-eight, thirty-nine," the old rogue was saying when Davos and the captain came down the hatch. Today he wore a wine-colored tunic and high boots of bleached white leather inlaid with silver scrollwork. Pulling the stopper from a jar, he sniffed, sneezed, and said, "A coarse grind, and of the second quality, my nose declares. The bill of lading is saying forty-three jars. Where have the others gotten to, I am wondering? These Pentoshi, do they think I am not counting?" When he saw Davos he stopped suddenly. "Is it pepper stinging my eyes, or tears? Is this the knight of the onions who stands before me? No, how can it be, my dear friend Davos died on the burning river, all agree. Why has he come to haunt me?"

Salla is counting the cargo of the Bountiful Harvest, Illyrio's ship. He complains that there is less aboard than the bill of landing says, and his comment suggests that he thinks these Pentoshi are trying to cheat him.

"Illyrio Mopatis. A whale with whiskers, I am telling you truly. These chairs were built to his measure, though he is seldom bestirring himself from Pentos to sit in them. A fat man always sits comfortably, I am thinking, for he takes his pillow with him wherever he goes."
"How is it you come by a Pentoshi ship?" asked Davos. "Have you gone pirate again, my lord?" He set his empty cup aside.
"Vile calumny. Who has suffered more from pirates than Salladhor Saan? I ask only what is due me. Much gold is owed, oh yes, but I am not without reason, so in place of coin I have taken a handsome parchment, very crisp. It bears the name and seal of Lord Alester Florent, the Hand of the King. I am made Lord of Blackwater Bay, and no vessel may be crossing my lordly waters without my lordly leave, no. And when these outlaws are trying to steal past me in the night to avoid my lawful duties and customs, why, they are no better than smugglers, so I am well within my rights to seize them." The old pirate laughed. "I cut off no man's fingers, though. What good are bits of fingers? The ships I am taking, the cargoes, a few ransoms, nothing unreasonable." He gave Davos a sharp look. "You are unwell, my friend. That cough . . . and so thin, I am seeing your bones through your skin. And yet I am not seeing your little bag of fingerbones . . ."

However, Salla goes on to explain that he has captured the ship, and while he may have some very crisp parchment as a defense, it amounts to piracy.

Why then, would he suspect the Pentoshi of trying to cheat him?

I would suggest that this is a similar scheme to what Illyrio used to do with Varys, and that Illyrio is in league with Salladhor Saan. Illyrio collects the insurance for the ships "captured" by Salla.

In addition, Tyrion remarks on the quality of Illyrio's wine (I'll sidestep the issue of the wine merchant assassin for now).

I am a mouse in a mammoth's lair, he mused, though at least the mammoth keeps a good cellar.

And yet, on the Bountiful Harvest, a ship fitted to transport Illyrio himself, Salla insults the wine.

"You must be forgiving me for the wine, my friend. These Pentoshi would drink their own water if it were purple."

Almost like Illyrio knew it would be taken.

I think it's also worth pointing out that Samarro Saan, The Last Valyrian, was one of the Band of Nine, alongside the last Blackfyre pretender.

"This is no longer a game for two players, if ever it was. Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach, and the whispers say they are gathering swords around them.

Despite what Salla says on the Bountiful Harvest above, Illyrio has bestirred himself from Pentos to travel, as Arya sees him beneath the Red Keep. Although it is unclear to me exactly when Salla takes up Stannis's cause.

Is it possible that it is Varys's comment about it no longer being a game for two players which precipitates Salladhor Saan ostensibly joining Stannis's cause? Is Young Griff's crossing of the Narrow Sea the real reason for his abandoning Stannis after serving without pay for so long (and managing to keep his fleet out of Tyrion's trap on the Blackwater, which was presumably well known to Varys)?

Edited April 18, 2023 by Mourning Star