Israel - Hamas War V

[Kalbear]

26 minutes ago, fionwe1987 said:

Then the targeting is indiscriminate. You are required to be certain of minimal civilian loss of life before launching a missile at a site. "We'll shoot the missile and see later if we had the right to" is not acceptable. And since they aren't giving us any proof that they did this kind of analysis, and historically have failed to, I really don't know why you keep insisting they're working within the rules of war. That just isn't true. 

Gonna address other parts of this later but this part? Not remotely true. You are not required to be certain of minimal civilian losses. Shooting a missile is not something magical compared to other methods of killing, either. I can look up the specific wording but it's a complicated measure of the value of the target, the timeliness of it, and whether or not you evaluate if civilians will be killed and how many. And it's also based on the Intel and info you had at the time - it is not a war crime, for instance, to strike a building that previously had no one but then a bunch of people piled in.

I also am absolutely not insisting that Israel is working within the rules of war. Heck, my previous post explicitly said they may not be. I don't know how I can be more clear. What I am unwilling to do is say that because civilians are killed it is a war crime. I had this debate with @Ran too on the opposite side, and ultimately it doesnt matter to me all that much if you call it a war crime or you call it legal or you call it an accident.

The dead are dead all the same. 

I suspect (as I have said multiple times today) Israel is probably operating much more on the lack of caution side here. I think that's clear from the US response. I think Israel is doing a very bad job of managing this politically and diplomatically. I've been very much on the side that says the siege is very, very bad and stupid. But I'm just going to say that calling war a war crime makes it devoid of meaning. 

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, fionwe1987 said:

This is sick. If this is not genocide, what is?

I do wonder how many have to die before people stop saying 'It's just war'. Ten thousand? A hundred thousand? A million? Everyone in Gaza?

[Ran]

8 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I do wonder how many have to die before people stop saying 'It's just war'. Ten thousand? A hundred thousand? A million? Everyone in Gaza?

Yes, hopefully the people of Gaza are thinking very hard about what Hamas thinks of that question.

[Craving Peaches]

Israel to refuse UN officials visas, according to Al Jazeera.

Quote

“Due to his [UN chief Guterres’s] remarks, we will refuse to issue visas to UN representatives,” Erdan told Army Radio. “We have already refused a visa for Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths. The time has come to teach them a lesson.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/24/israel-hamas-war-live-fuel-shortfall-could-force-un-to-halt-work-in-gaza-2

This comes after the Secretary-General rightly criticised breaches of international law in Gaza, and said the attacks 'did not happen in a vacuum'. Funny (in a sad way) that even the Daily Express seems to care more about innocent Palestinians than the Israeli government. 

2 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yes, hopefully the people of Gaza are thinking very hard about what Hamas thinks of that question.

Hard to think much about that when you are starving, dehydrated or suffering from diseases linked to dirty water, and of course, being constantly bombed. The people of Gaza are focused on trying to survive. Also, are you aware of what Hamas does to dissidents?

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/05/gaza-palestinians-tortured-summarily-killed-by-hamas-forces-during-2014-conflict/

The Scottish First Minister says all his mother-in-law had to eat for a whole day was cashew nuts.

Quote

"Throughout the day, the 100 people in the family home must ration their food. The adults barely eat, my mother-in-law only ate cashew nuts yesterday, they ration so the children in the house don't end up malnourished, but time is running out," he said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67210216

[Rippounet]

6 hours ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

I wouldn't even be that charitable. Who would actually hold them accountable? Who would actually investigate this?

The ICJ has an ongoing investigating into the IDF, and one international law professor I was reading from said it would be extended to cover the current conflict. Also, Amnesty International is doing its best to analyse Israeli actions - though I would expect the IDF to politely tell them to fuck off if they request information at this point.
Also, I would assume the IDF compiles "logs" of its actions for communication purposes - i.e., for the press.

6 hours ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

No, what I think holds Israel back is that they are listening to the US and the warnings of the US to not let things escalate. The threat from Lebanon, Syria and Iran to escalate is real. Israel has to give some semblance of legitimacy to these attacks not because of potential war crimes but because of those nations.

Oh, that too. No disagreement here.

I'd say this is is a good example of "the end justifies the means" flirting with "might is right," or, as the neo-fascists of the "alt-right" on the internet say, "fuck around and find out." I don't know if it will ever be proved, but this is a crime against humanity - everyone's humanity.

[Varysblackfyre321]

13 hours ago, Ran said:

What are your hopes for the future of Hamas in that scenario?

I’d settle for Containment in the immediate term. More Strategic bombings, even use of special forces, things they’re already presumably doing.

A ground invasion in the time frame Israel is proposing probably would get far more people killed than Hamas has killed in much of its existence.

I don believe anyone here seriously thinks Hamas is an actual existential threat to Israel so I can’t see the risks associated as good enough.

Forgive me I just read the a ground invasion  as mainly being critical to satiate Israeli bloodlust and to try and save Netanyahu’s and the idfs image of strength after their negligence allowed Hamas to kill hundreds of people. 
 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

39 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yes, hopefully the people of Gaza are thinking very hard about what Hamas thinks of that question.

I'll be honest, I'm more curious about what you think about that question, because I mostly see you blaming Palestinians for nearly everything they are suffering. 

[Relic]

57 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yes, hopefully the people of Gaza are thinking very hard about what Hamas thinks of that question.

What would you like the people of Gaza to do about it, at this moment? We can assume, logically I think, that most of the weapons within Gaza belong to Hamas. What is your suggestion for how the civilians trapped inside, half of whom are under the age of 19, should act? 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Relic

[Rippounet]

18 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I don't believe anyone here seriously thinks Hamas is an actual existential threat to Israel so I can’t see the risks associated as good enough.

Forgive me I just read the a ground invasion  as mainly being critical to satiate Israeli bloodlust and to try and save Netanyahu’s and the idfs image of strength after their negligence allowed Hamas to kill hundreds of people.

I second all this.

At this point, Palestinians are being murdered to cover for Israeli incompetence. Yes, Hamas is bad and wants to kill all Jews, but guess what, there'll always be a portion of Palestinians wanting to kill all Jews, and the current bombings will make this worse, not better. I hate to write this, but at some point, beyond a certain level of brutality, Israeli actions end up retroactively legitimizing Hamas, which is exactly what I was hoping would never happen.

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, Relic said:

What would you like the people of Gaza to do about it, at this moment? We can assume, logically I think, that most of the weapons within Gaza belong to Hamas. What is your suggestion for how the civilians trapped inside, half of whom are under the age of 19 should act? 

Maslow's hierarchy of needs suggests people will not be planning how to reform/remove their government when they really lack basics such as food and water...

[Relic]

1 minute ago, Craving Peaches said:

Maslow's hierarchy of needs suggests people will not be planning how to reform/remove their government when they really lack basics such as food and water...

Yeah seems pretty likely that not dying from bombs or dehydration is the first thing on any civilian's mind currently. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

16 minutes ago, Relic said:

What would you like the people of Gaza to do about it, at this moment? We can assume, logically I think, that most of the weapons within Gaza belong to Hamas. What is your suggestion for how the civilians trapped inside, half of whom are under the age of 19, should act? 

I believe that he answered that before: they should all be rising up against Hamas. Just like the people of Afghanistan should all be rising up against the Taliban. Or the people of any totalitarian or terrorist state should be rising up against them. Easy. 

[TrueMetis]

Just now, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I believe that he answered that before: they should all be rising up against Hamas. Just like the people of Afghanistan should all be rising up against the Taliban. Or the people of any totalitarian or terrorist state should be rising up against them. Easy. 

If the Cherokee nation decides to blow up the Oklahoma State Capital building I expect to hear no complaints from any of y'all.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

28 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

If the Cherokee nation decides to blow up the Oklahoma State Capital building I expect to hear no complaints from any of y'all.

I was being glib. 

[TrueMetis]

3 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I was being glib. 

So was I.

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

3 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

So was I.

Though to be fair, even if the leaders of the Cherokee nation bombed the state building, would the US government be justified in doing to the Cherokee nation what Israel is doing to the Gaza strip? I expect that the United States would be rightly condemned for creating a humanitarian crisis in the Cherokee Nation by cutting off their utilities and bombing their escape routes. 

[Ran]

I just don't understand the cognitive dissonance of the people who are 100% behind resistance to Israel by Palestinians and then the pretending that Palestinians could never resist their own local, homegrown oppressors.

The distance in power between Hamas and local Gazans is far less than the distance in power between the IDF and Hamas. As of 2005, 125,000 guns were in private hands in Gaza. In 2020, the proliferation of arms in private hands was said to be out of control, contributing to street violence and civil unrest.

But I'm not talking about a revolt. Are Gazans pressing local Hamas officials to release supplies from Hamas's stockpile? Are people agitating and asking Hamas to end the war? I hope they are, just as people in Israel are urging the government to end the war.

You may ask, do I know what happens to dissidents in Gaza, and sure, I was the first to point it out in these threads. But the people of Gaza also know what IDF bombs and failed militant rockets does to them. 

I think we should all hope that Hamas feels internal pressure to end the conflict expeditiously, just as it feels external pressure to end the conflict.

[Daeron the Daring]

39 minutes ago, Ran said:

I just don't understand the cognitive dissonance of the people who are 100% behind resistance to Israel by Palestinians and then the pretending that Palestinians could never resist their own local, homegrown oppressors.

The distance in power between Hamas and local Gazans is far less than the distance in power between the IDF and Hamas. As of 2005, 125,000 guns were in private hands in Gaza. In 2020, the proliferation of arms in private hands was said to be out of control, contributing to street violence and civil unrest.

But I'm not talking about a revolt. Are Gazans pressing local Hamas officials to release supplies from Hamas's stockpile? Are people agitating and asking Hamas to end the war? I hope they are, just as people in Israel are urging the government to end the war.

You may ask, do I know what happens to dissidents in Gaza, and sure, I was the first to point it out in these threads. But the people of Gaza also know what IDF bombs and failed militant rockets does to them. 

I think we should all hope that Hamas feels internal pressure to end the conflict expeditiously, just as it feels external pressure to end the conflict.

I think, beyond the fact that Gazans are extremely radicalised for obvious reasons (which does give clout or a level of justification for Hamas' actions to the gazans), it's debatable even from an objective point of view if Hamas is a bigger existential threat to them than the actions of Israel. Expecting them to reach or share that viewpoint on a large enough scale to achieve anything (positive and significant) is similar in possibility to expecting God to descend down to Earth and make everything alright. (I'd say more people believe globally in the possibility of the latter)

Edited October 25, 2023 by Daeron the Daring

[Ran]

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

beyond the fact that Gazans are extremely radicalised for obvious reasons

Not so radicalized as all that:

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According to the latest Washington Institute polling, conducted in July 2023, Hamas’s decision to break the ceasefire was not a popular move. While the majority of Gazans (65%) did think it likely that there would be “a large military conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza” this year, a similar percentage (62%) supported Hamas maintaining a ceasefire with Israel. Moreover, half (50%) agreed with the following proposal: “Hamas should stop calling for Israel’s destruction, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution based on the 1967 borders.”

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

I just don't understand the cognitive dissonance of the people who are 100% behind resistance to Israel by Palestinians and then the pretending that Palestinians could never resist their own local, homegrown oppressors.

Respectfully, I don't know who you're talking to here. I don't remember anyone coming close to being "100%" behind Palestinian "resistance." There were some attempts at explaining/describing the general context, but I don't remember anyone condoning Hamas's actions (explaining is not condoning). The general consensus on that front, was always close to what Wittes wrote:

Quote

There is nothing to be said for the legality or the morality of Hamas’s way of warfare, which consists of war crimes layered on top of other war crimes.

 

1 hour ago, Ran said:

I think we should all hope that Hamas feels internal pressure to end the conflict expeditiously, just as it feels external pressure to end the conflict.

But conversely, that would mean Western public opinion also has a duty to denounce Israeli war crimes, that may help damage Hamas in the short-term, but only at the cost of potential escalation and long-term instability.

To put it differently: what's the best case outcome for this kind of warfare? Destroy Hamas for about a decade, before another generation picks up AK-47s and Qassam rockets? And that's while risking attacks by Hezbollah and Iran...

It's lunacy. Something has to be done, but the current strategy (if we can call it that) is a deadend. At this point, a ceasefire is a reasonable option, or at least a considerable reduction in the intensity of the bombing. It's not like Hamas will be able to do much, especially if the IDF keeps the Gaza strip under surveillance.