Israel - Hamas War VI

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Altherion said:

I think most of your objections stem from the fact that you either do not understand or do not agree with this military reality. The Israelis are not bombing Gaza for their own amusement or for revenge or anything of the sort.

Citation needed.

I think that's the real objection that stems here. I am highly skeptical of the way that Israel has run their campaign because in general bombing is not very useful in dealing with entrenched foes in cities - and more importantly, it has massive political liabilities that Israel cannot afford if they want to do anything afterwards that matters.

1 minute ago, Altherion said:

They're doing it to soften up the defenses because they know that when they send in boots on the ground, their own casualties will be extremely high and they're hoping that by taking out at least some fortifications, they can reduce them a bit.

So please tell me - what fortifications are they bombing in South Gaza by the refugee camps? What fortifications are they softening up by denying food and water? What fortifications are they softening up when they bomb the Rafah crossing? 

No, this is too simplistic and also goes against what the IDF has said. They've said they're going after any Hamas resources or people anywhere they can get them. I'm sure some of the attacks are dealing with things like anti-tank positions or tunnel entrances, but a lot of the strikes are precisely what Israel has said they are - they are meant to kill Hamas units. 

And they're doing that with no report of actual KIA Hamas fighters and thousands of civilian deaths. 

A more modern comparison to Gaza would be Fallujah - and that was pretty brutal. Even then, Iraq opened up routes for civilians, airdropped food, and tried to get aid in (which ISIS blocked). And it lasted 3 months. 

My suspicion is that the ground assault is going to be brutal, long, and painful for Israel. I also think that the bombing will have done fuckall to help it. 

 

[Werthead]

The US has indicated it is brokering a deal with Hamas (presumably through intermediaries, also presumably the Qataris) to allow everyone with a foreign passport to leave Gaza, and Egypt has already agreed to set up a system to process them out. There are at least 500 Palestinian citizens based in Gaza with US passports, and hundreds to thousands more visitors to Gaza from other countries who have been trapped for weeks on end. Allowing them to leave would also alleviate the demand on services within Gaza for people without overseas passports.

Also strong indications from the US that they forced Israel to restore communications after they were cut off at the weekend.

ETA: The US has said that they have set a target of 100 trucks of aid into Gaza a day, and they want to see that hit ASAP. Some speculation that Israel will now narrow its focus on Gaza City and the area to the north. Already there's been a big downtick in attacks in the southern half of the Strip.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Werthead

[Zorral]

West Bank?

As settler violence surges, West Bank Palestinians fear new displacement
By Susannah George and Sufian Taha

Gift link

https://wapo.st/3Qk0ikj

[Ran]

39 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Also strong indications from the US that they forced Israel to restore communications after they were cut off at the weekend.

Noted this earlier, but it's unclear that the US actually got them to do it or if they did it to support the beginning of ground operation expansion and once they had their toehold they were planning to open up again. 

Will not be surprised by periodic communications blackouts timed with any big further actions they take, though. 

[Tywin et al.]

3 hours ago, IFR said:

Why do you think most people here don't care? My own perception is that while indeed the displacement of Israelis is a pressing concern that deserves attention, 

I have not just been talking about here, but in general I think most people range somewhere between not caring to enjoying what happened. 

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right now people in Gaza are dying by the thousands, and so this would dominate the topic. It doesn't take away from the horror of the situation the Jewish people are going through. They should be able to live their lives in peace, without fear of murder and displacement.

Of course they should, however, like I said in the very first thread I expected the plight of Israelis would quickly be put on the back burner and that's exactly what happened. A few empty words is like saying thoughts and prayers after a mass shooting. It means nothing, especially when a lot of language, more so elsewhere than here, quickly turned to attacking the Israeli government before the counter offensive even ramped up. It's only gotten more heated since and we have seen that here, though still not as bad as in other places.

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I accept your view in this. I don't think you want the death of Palestinians, but that you believe it's an unfortunate necessary measure in securing the future safety of Israel.

I see no other realistic option. People have discussed others, but waiting around and/or trying to negotiate was never realistic and frankly it wouldn't be expected in most cases. Israel's government sucks, I'm pretty sure everyone here agrees, but they're being held to an unrealistic standard. If North Korea did the exact same thing Hamas did to South Korea, with every condition being the same, would people be so quick to be hostile to South Korea? Maybe, but I'm doubtful of that.

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Can you accept that people here disagree with this assessment, and do so in good faith and still believe that Jewish lives matter and that the actions of Hamas are a complete atrocity?

Most sure, but not all. 

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

So please tell me - what fortifications are they bombing in South Gaza by the refugee camps? What fortifications are they softening up by denying food and water? What fortifications are they softening up when they bomb the Rafah crossing? 

No, this is too simplistic and also goes against what the IDF has said. They've said they're going after any Hamas resources or people anywhere they can get them. I'm sure some of the attacks are dealing with things like anti-tank positions or tunnel entrances, but a lot of the strikes are precisely what Israel has said they are - they are meant to kill Hamas units.

I did not say they are solely bombing fortifications and you answer your own question: they're bombing all sorts of Hamas assets.

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

And they're doing that with no report of actual KIA Hamas fighters and thousands of civilian deaths.

To know exactly how many Hamas fighters they've killed they'd have to have people on the ground telling them that -- and Hamas is obviously not going to broadcast that information. The Israelis have confirmed that several Hamas commanders have been killed, but they don't know about how many rank-and-file (as I've mentioned previously, that would be a very interesting piece of information).

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

My suspicion is that the ground assault is going to be brutal, long, and painful for Israel. I also think that the bombing will have done fuckall to help it.

Why do you think the latter? They've clearly done some damage to Hamas; it's just not very prominent in the media.

[Rippounet]

2 hours ago, Altherion said:

I think most of your objections stem from the fact that you either do not understand or do not agree with this military reality. The Israelis are not bombing Gaza for their own amusement or for revenge or anything of the sort.

 

You may have missed it, but the very specific accusations are that the IDF has no regard for the principles of distinction, precaution and proportionality. Can you prove these accusations wrong?

Netanyahu said this:

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The IDF is the most moral army in the world; the IDF does everything to avoid harm to non-combatants

This begs the question: what has the IDF been doing to avoid harm to non-combatants?
Has it exercised precaution in selecting its targets?
Has it worked on delivering efficient warnings? Is it leaving enough time for civilians to evacuate target zones when possible? Has it been leaving international organizations enough opportunities to provide aid to the population?
Has it been taking past mistakes into account to improve its operating procedures?
It's been more than three weeks, and I do believe some small, insufficient amount of aid is only now starting to get through. Did this approach to aid accomplish any specific military objective?

Or are we to think that the IDF could not and cannot be expected to seriously take the civilians and their needs into account? From a distance, it seems the failures of the IDF are downplayed, and in some cases, normalized. Of course, the objectives mean that some civilian casualties are unavoidable. But that's not the question: the question is whether "everything is done" or perhaps whether anything is done, to avoid them.
Honestly, if you can tell me why I understand this wrong and much is, in fact, done to avoid killing non-combatants, I'll be glad to devote my mind to other matters.

[Altherion]

11 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

You may have missed it, but the very specific accusations are that the IDF has no regard for the principles of distinction, precaution and proportionality. Can you prove these accusations wrong?

Of course not. I have no access to any of the information necessary to prove anything. However, neither do the people making these accusations. To discuss this knowledgeably, one would have to know what exactly the targets of the bombings are and how often these targets are eliminated. We don't know any of that and it's not public info.

14 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Has it exercised precaution in selecting its targets?
Has it worked on delivering efficient warnings? Is it leaving enough time for civilians to evacuate target zones when possible? Has it been leaving international organizations enough opportunities to provide aid to the population?
Has it been taking past mistakes into account to improve its operating procedures?
It's been more than three weeks, and I do believe some small, insufficient amount of aid is only now starting to get through. Did this approach to aid accomplish any specific military objective?

Answering your questions in order, to the first one, I would assume so, but it's hard to say (see my comment about having no idea what the targets are).

The Israelis claim to be delivering warnings and Hamas threatened to execute hostages if they don't do that so I think the warnings are being delivered.

I have no idea about how much time is allowed on average and neither does anyone outside the conflict.

I don't know what "enough" means in this context -- they've clearly let some organizations keep operating.

I assume every organization tries to learn from past mistakes, but again, I have no idea as this is internal to the IDF.

I think they were trying to get Hamas to use up their supplies, but I do not know for sure.

More generally, the questions you are asking are nearly all operational questions that are impossible for an outsider to answer. Maybe the US military or other organizations with excellent surveillance capabilities can answer some of them, but mostly, they're unknowable unless one somehow can make the IDF talk (which, for obvious reasons, they're not going to until at least after the war is finished).

[Kalbear]

4 hours ago, Altherion said:

I did not say they are solely bombing fortifications and you answer your own question: they're bombing all sorts of Hamas assets.

You literally did. I even quoted you. 

4 hours ago, Altherion said:

To know exactly how many Hamas fighters they've killed they'd have to have people on the ground telling them that -- and Hamas is obviously not going to broadcast that information. The Israelis have confirmed that several Hamas commanders have been killed, but they don't know about how many rank-and-file (as I've mentioned previously, that would be a very interesting piece of information).

Why do you think the latter? They've clearly done some damage to Hamas; it's just not very prominent in the media.

I'm sure they've done some damage. But the damage they've done is not likely to be very meaningful for the overcoming of Hamas because Hamas isn't really the kind of thing that's easily targetable like, say, an Iraqi tank is. Heck, as long as Qatar holds Hamas' senior leadership and much of their people are elsewhere beating them in Gaza is not that great. 

Put it another way: Netanyahu would not be proclaiming that the next part is going to be a long, difficult slog if they had done a lot of damage to Hamas. And the targets that we know that they've hit are not things that would make it significantly less long of a slog; they have, as I said, been things like houses and individual targets. 

Israel needs to not just kill Hamas troops; they need to hold the territory. If they don't do that - or, as they've said, if they refuse to - then it's pretty pointless. Unless they plan on executing every single person who would vote for Hamas. 

[Rippounet]

30 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Of course not. I have no access to any of the information necessary to prove anything. However, neither do the people making these accusations.

It literally takes 10 minutes of googling to find the information establishing about half-a-dozen war crimes. I'm talking about instances that rely on what can be described as public knowledge rather than instances relying on local testimonies, and cases in which the act itself constitutes a war crime, thus placing the burden of proof on the IDF to explain why they occurred.
 

[Varysblackfyre321]

The Former PM legitimately seemed enraged at the notion of rebuilding Gaza after the war and answering what could Israel actually do with Gazans after they’ve “annilated” hamas.

There’e also been a think-tank headed by a Netanyahu ally which flat out advocating exploiting the conflict to do full on ethnic-cleansing.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Varysblackfyre321

[Ran]

Weirdly super-instructive to revisit the early days of the Ukraine threads.

Not sure if anyone has linked it, but this site may be useful for navigating the geography of the conflict. Hopefully they'll bring in layers that show activity, known strikes, etc.

 

 

[Crixus]

6 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 

There’e also been a think-tank headed by a Netanyahu ally which flat out advocating exploiting the conflict to do full on ethnic-cleansing.

Are you referring to this? https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-population-transfer-hamas-egypt-palestinians-refugees-5f99378c0af6aca183a90c631fa4da5a 

From the article:

3 options were presented by the Intelligence Ministry in a 'concept paper' drafted on 13 October, and two discarded, with the recommendation being 'transferring' 2.3 million Gaza residents to tent cities in the Sinai. Eventually a 'humanitarian corridor' would be established, along with a 'security zone' to block the Palestinians from re-entering. So, permanent displacement, I guess? They've also got interesting recs on other Arab countries + Canada taking these people in. It's stunning, imo, how matter-of-factly it is being proposed that millions are once again chucked out and refused return to their own homes. But Hamas!11! That justifies all, I suppose. 

The other options were reinstating PLO in Gaza, or another local authority. Both were discarded as being insufficient for Israel's security. According to this it sure as shit seems like the only viable solution is extermination via killing (happening now) or mass expulsion. Also indicates a lack of desire or will to meaningfully engage any Palestinians for a genuine solution here, as some on this thread have been suggesting. 

Caveat: this is just a proposal, and by no means signed off policy. However, its mere existence indicates some level of support or acquiescence from TPTB in government. This sort of stuff doesn't just magically appear out of nowhere. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Crixus

[Fragile Bird]

2 hours ago, Crixus said:

Are you referring to this? https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-population-transfer-hamas-egypt-palestinians-refugees-5f99378c0af6aca183a90c631fa4da5a 

From the article:

3 options were presented by the Intelligence Ministry in a 'concept paper' drafted on 13 October, and two discarded, with the recommendation being 'transferring' 2.3 million Gaza residents to tent cities in the Sinai. Eventually a 'humanitarian corridor' would be established, along with a 'security zone' to block the Palestinians from re-entering. So, permanent displacement, I guess? They've also got interesting recs on other Arab countries + Canada taking these people in. It's stunning, imo, how matter-of-factly it is being proposed that millions are once again chucked out and refused return to their own homes. But Hamas!11! That justifies all, I suppose. 

The other options were reinstating PLO in Gaza, or another local authority. Both were discarded as being insufficient for Israel's security. According to this it sure as shit seems like the only viable solution is extermination via killing (happening now) or mass expulsion. Also indicates a lack of desire or will to meaningfully engage any Palestinians for a genuine solution here, as some on this thread have been suggesting. 

Caveat: this is just a proposal, and by no means signed off policy. However, its mere existence indicates some level of support or acquiescence from TPTB in government. This sort of stuff doesn't just magically appear out of nowhere. 

I remember reading reports five years ago, when Trump appointed his son-in-law to resolve the Middle East Problem, cuz Jared was such a clever lad, that Canada was going to take 500,000 Palestinian refugees. The rumor, iirc, was circulated in the ME press. I suspect the idea was floated without ever consulting Canada. The stories were quickly squelched, and I always wondered if some senior Canadian official told Jared to shut up.

[Zorral]

Israel says striking ‘all parts of Gaza’

Misgivings grow among Israel’s allies about escalation in Gaza
By Annabelle Timsit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/31/israel-war-hamas-gaza-news-palestine/#link-6NKNF3HJ2ZBVBCLYA7GAWH6LW4

Quote

 

A growing number of countries have in recent days appeared increasingly uncomfortable with the humanitarian toll from the strikes on Gaza.

Even as many countries aligned with Israel have in public comments underscored its right to defend itself in the wake of Hamas’s brutal attack on Oct. 7, the calls for the fighting to stop and for Israeli authorities to do more to protect Palestinian civilians have grown louder.

More than 8,500 people have been killed in Gaza since the start of the conflict and more than 21,000 wounded, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Roughly 1,400 Israelis have been killed and more than 5,400 injured, according to Israeli authorities.

On Friday, the U.N. General Assembly adopted a resolution that called for a “humanitarian truce” and demanded an end to the siege imposed on Gaza by Israel, which has largely prevented food, medicine, fuel and other essential goods from entering the enclave. It also criticized Israeli authorities’ directives for people in northern Gaza to evacuate to the south, and called for the “order” to be rescinded.

One hundred twenty countries — including France, Spain and Singapore — voted to adopt the resolution, with 45 abstentions and 14 countries, including the United States and Israel, voting against it. An amendment proposed by Canada, which would have added language to the resolution condemning Hamas’s attack on Israel and calling for the immediate release of the hostages, failed to receive requisite support to pass, with 88 in favor, 55 against and 23 abstentions. (Amendments require the support of two-thirds of members.)

Israel’s allies continued to echo calls for an end to the fighting and for help for Palestinians.

French President Emmanuel Macron said during a news conference Friday: “We fully recognize [Israel’s] right and the legitimate will to fight terrorism, we are ready to help. But we consider that a complete blockade, indiscriminate bombing and the prospect of a massive ground operation don’t protect the civilian population.”

“When Israel’s friends urge Israel to protect civilian life, as we have, it is critical that Israel listens,” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Monday, adding that the world “will not accept continuing civilian deaths” in the conflict between Israeli forces and Hamas militants.

Wong’s remarks came as six former prime ministers from both sides of the political aisle in Australia released a joint letter expressing solidarity with both Jewish and Palestinian communities amid fears that the conflict is spurring local divisions.

 

 

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Amnesty International said it has compiled evidence showing Israeli forces fired artillery shells containing white phosphorus, an incendiary weapon, along Lebanon’s southern border this month. The rights group said an Oct. 16 incident in the town of Dhayra should be “investigated as a war crime because it was an indiscriminate attack that injured at least nine civilians.” The attack was one of several committed between Oct. 10 and Oct. 16, the rights group said.

https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/ms-lisa-doughten-ocha-director-humanitarian-financing-and-resource-mobilization-division-behalf-under-secretary-general-humanitarian-affairs-and-emergency-relief-coordinator-mr-martin-griffiths

Then, there is the West Bank.

As Israel pummels Gaza, the crisis in the West Bank comes into focus

Gift Link:

https://wapo.st/40fOHHL

Quote

 

Before Oct. 7, analysts were fretting more about the West Bank, not Gaza, as the potential spark for an explosion of Israeli and Palestinian violence. The calendar year had seen a surge in violence involving Palestinians and Israeli settlers — the latter emboldened by a coterie of influential far-right ministers holding top positions in the cabinet of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Human rights groups tracked an escalation in attacks by armed setters, who stormed through Palestinian villages, vandalized Palestinian property and destroyed Palestinian crops. A tense security environment saw an uptick in Palestinian militancy, with Israel’s military deploying the bulk of its manpower to counter perceived threats in the West Bank.

Even before the Islamist group Hamas’s bloody rampage through southern Israeli towns and kibbutzim three weeks ago, which triggered a punishing, brutal Israeli response, 2023 was the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank in two decades. But in the aftermath of the deadliest day in Israel’s history, the scales have tipped even further. ....

 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Zorral

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

Looks like all of Gaza will indeed be declared a "lawful military target." 

[Craving Peaches]

Refugee camp has reportedly been hit with at least 50 dead... But it's a 'lawful military target', right?

[Crixus]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

 

Then, there is the West Bank.

As Israel pummels Gaza, the crisis in the West Bank comes into focus

Gift Link:

https://wapo.st/40fOHHL

 

Thank you for the link. The fact that these fucking settlers are using this as a licence to go all out and step up their atrocities is sickening. According to this many Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, with no protection (sometimes the reverse) offered by the police meant to protect them. 
 

Re the UN resolution, it is also baffling to me why the suggestion to amend the resolution by adding a condemnation of Hamas and immediate release of all hostages wasn’t accepted?? How can that be controversial in a sane world? Wtf can’t countries work together to save lives instead of using tragedy to further their shitty political ends (rhetorical)?
 

As some on this thread have been saying, humanity sucks.  

[Altherion]

11 hours ago, Rippounet said:

It literally takes 10 minutes of googling to find the information establishing about half-a-dozen war crimes. I'm talking about instances that rely on what can be described as public knowledge rather than instances relying on local testimonies, and cases in which the act itself constitutes a war crime, thus placing the burden of proof on the IDF to explain why they occurred.

Nobody is going to explain anything to anyone during an active conflict because if they start telling people why thought some target is worth hitting, that tells the other side something about their intelligence capabilities. Since the usage of human shields is a core part of the strategy of Hamas (in fact, it's by far the most important element of that strategy), a large fraction of Israeli attacks are going to affect civilians. They are not war crimes because one is allowed to do that as long as there is a military objective, but they make for good Hamas propaganda since Israel is not going to explain what it was they were aiming at.

And yes, every once in a while the Israelis will make a mistake and bomb the wrong location entirely. It happens to every military and it's probably more likely here because the area is small and everything is packed together.

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Nobody is going to explain anything to anyone during an active conflict because if they start telling people why thought some target is worth hitting, that tells the other side something about their intelligence capabilities. 

The US held briefings on their strikes sometimes mere hours after the strike. This is both demonstrably false and a bullshit reason.