Israel - Hamas War IX

[kissdbyfire]

Carry on.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna123954

“Gaza ‘security responsibility’ to be Israel’s when conflict ends, Netanyahu says.”

Edited November 7, 2023 by kissdbyfire

[Kalbear]

Yeah, on that. Netanyahu is all over the place:

Quote

Mark Regev, a senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday that Israel's post-war plan is not an "ongoing occupation" of Gaza.

"I think you could expect something more fluid, something more flexible where we can move in and move out as need be to deal with the security situation," he said. "We're not talking about any sort of ongoing occupation of the Gaza strip."

Asked about Netanyahu’s comments on ABC News on Monday that Israel will have the "overall security responsibility" in Gaza for an "indefinite period" after the war ends, Regev said: "We have to distinguish between a security presence and political control."

"When this is over and we have defeated Hamas, it is crucial that there won’t be a resurgent terrorist element, a resurgent Hamas. There is no point doing this and just going back to square one," Regev told CNN.

"There will have to be an Israeli security presence, but that doesn’t mean Israel is re-occupying Gaza, that doesn’t mean that Israel is there to govern the Gazans," he continued.

"On the contrary, we are interested in establishing new frameworks, where the Gazans can rule themselves, where there can be international support for the reconstruction of Gaza. Hopefully, we can bring in countries – Arab countries as well – for a reconstruction of a demilitarized, post-Hamas Gaza," he said.

So...Israel won't be occupying, but will have the ability to go anywhere, at any time, will be able to dictate who is running the government, and will be able to use any and all military capacity whenever they choose. 

That is...well, that's an interesting plan. 

[kissdbyfire]

Yeah, I had seen that interview w/ Amanpour. It feels that at least their messaging is all over the place. 

[Craving Peaches]

Al Jazeera says the tunnel the IDF claimed to reveal in that footage is just a water tank. Does anyone know if BBC verify has looked at the footage yet? Or Reuters?

https://youtu.be/z_Ccjh22GtU?si=xVFi6caZK1PNM3ji

[Varysblackfyre321]

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Gaza ‘security responsibility’ to be Israel’s when conflict ends, Netanyahu says.”

He’s also said election needs to happen after the war ends. I don’t think even  during the -occupation/not occupation he’d say the war is over until he’s able rally support for himself. 

[Rippounet]

I'm not even sure this goes in this thread, but, well...

So apparently the 250 Stars of Davids that were painted all over Paris may have been... A Russian operation... Through a Moldovian businessman? Weird story, though it makes sense that Putin's Russia would want to stir shit up.

https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2023/11/07/pochoirs-d-etoiles-de-david-a-paris-la-piste-d-une-operation-d-ingerence-russe-privilegiee_6198775_3224.html

[Altherion]

I think their messaging is all over the place because they simply do not know what to do. An outright occupation is bad for multiple obvious reasons, but if they leave it alone, either Hamas will come back or something very much like it under a different name. Nobody wants to touch that territory with a ten foot pole so they're not likely to rope in some other group. It's a conundrum.

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

I'm not even sure this goes in this thread, but, well...

So apparently the 250 Stars of Davids that were painted all over Paris may have been... A Russian operation... Through a Moldovian businessman? Weird story, though it makes sense that Putin's Russia would want to stir shit up.

https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2023/11/07/pochoirs-d-etoiles-de-david-a-paris-la-piste-d-une-operation-d-ingerence-russe-privilegiee_6198775_3224.html

It does makes sense. UGH this guy. 

9 minutes ago, Altherion said:

I think their messaging is all over the place because they simply do not know what to do. An outright occupation is bad for multiple obvious reasons, but if they leave it alone, either Hamas will come back or something very much like it under a different name. Nobody wants to touch that territory with a ten foot pole so they're not likely to rope in some other group. It's a conundrum.

But if they don’t know what to do perhaps they should STFU about it instead of having different government officials saying very contradictory things. That’s why I said their messaging was all over the place, not their plans.

[Kalbear]

Well, if their goal is to get a bunch of international coalition members in to help out - including Arab ones - they really need to change how they're prosecuting the war, they need to allow for humanitarian aid, they need to stop bombing quite so many obviously stupid things. 

If they don't want to do that, they need to figure out a different plan. 

I get that that's what they actually, ya know, WANT, but they aren't going to get international support and also bomb as much as they have been. They certainly aren't going to be able to get a whole lot of local Gazans to willingly take over either. 

[mormont]

Could it possibly be that Netanyahu, the guy whose plan to handle the Palestinians turned out to be a giant disaster and whose response to the October attacks is also turning out to be a chaotic mess, doesn’t have a sensible plan for the aftermath either? Seems far fetched, but maybe.

[kissdbyfire]

I think it would be great if there was any way for the UN to be involved, but I doubt that will happen.

And speaking of the UN, there has been a record number of UN staff killed since the start of the war. 
 

Quote

Record number of U.N. workers killed since Oct. 7

A total of 89 staffers with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees have been killed in Gaza since Oct. 7, the agency said in an update.

"This is the highest number of United Nations aid workers killed in a conflict in the history of the United Nations," the agency said. 

In the last 24 hours, one UNRWA staffer was killed and another was seriously injured. Yesterday, five staffers were killed within 24 hours.

 

[Kalbear]

I think the UN will certainly be involved. But they aren't equipped or capable of doing anything more than aiding peace and doing humanitarian aid. They can't run a government, they can't appoint people or make treaties or anything. They can just make it a really big refugee camp. 

I said that that was one of the possible outcomes in the previous thread as well - that Israel pisses everyone off and basically finds no one to run it that they'll accept and refuses to do it themselves, and the end result is a Gaza that is a permanent non-state that gets humanitarian aid to basically function and acts as a large refugee camp or prison, depending on how hardcore Israel blockades go. 

[Altherion]

7 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think it would be great if there was any way for the UN to be involved, but I doubt that will happen.

I think Israel simply does not trust the UN (especially after the recent comments of the UN Secretary-General).

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I think the UN will certainly be involved. But they aren't equipped or capable of doing anything more than aiding peace and doing humanitarian aid. They can't run a government, they can't appoint people or make treaties or anything. They can just make it a really big refugee camp. 
 

Yeah, but they can be more or less involved, right? I don’t know, just asking, but it kind of makes sense to me that their involvement will be different in different situations. In which case, maybe more involvement would be better, especially given what you said below.

5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I said that that was one of the possible outcomes in the previous thread as well - that Israel pisses everyone off and basically finds no one to run it that they'll accept and refuses to do it themselves, and the end result is a Gaza that is a permanent non-state that gets humanitarian aid to basically function and acts as a large refugee camp or prison, depending on how hardcore Israel blockades go. 

Do you really think the Israeli government could refuse to do it themselves? I don’t know… If for no other reason than just b/c Netanyahu may see it was a way to cling to power, “the job’s not done yet!” type of thing. 
And this picture you paint is worse than “basic humanitarian aid to function”, it feels more like the bare minimum to subsist. Especially w/o major investments in rebuilding all the infrastructure etc. 

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, Altherion said:

I think Israel simply does not trust the UN (especially after the recent comments of the UN Secretary-General).

I think the Israeli government doesn’t trust anyone, not even the US. They know they’ll continue to get support from America, but I don’t think they fully trust each other - I’m talking specifically about Bibi & cohorts here. Particularly if reports about the private conversations being different in content and maybe even in tone than what is said publicly. I also read/heard somewhere that Biden and Netanyahu hate each other personally, though I have no idea if that’s true.

[Zorral]

57 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think it would be great if there was any way for the UN to be involved

Not necessarily judging by some recent UN peacekeeping forces and what they did in places like Haiti.

Perhaps ... if the UN was there ONLY in humanitarian capacity, no capacity that involves figures who are armed, it might be different.  Also, in Haiti, those UN peacekeepers brought cholera, which Haiti never had had before among its multiple plagues.

[Kalbear]

14 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, but they can be more or less involved, right? I don’t know, just asking, but it kind of makes sense to me that their involvement will be different in different situations. In which case, maybe more involvement would be better, especially given what you said below.

The UN is pretty much as involved now as they can be. The only thing they can do differently is put in UN peacekeeping forces. But that's really not that helpful, especially in an insurgency situation, and most of the time those peacekeeping forces will literally stand by and watch things happen. They aren't police, they aren't counterinsurgents, and they aren't a government. Now, they could aid an existing government and make sure it stays not blown up, but they can't run it themselves. 

14 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Do you really think the Israeli government could refuse to do it themselves? I don’t know… If for no other reason than just b/c Netanyahu may see it was a way to cling to power, “the job’s not done yet!” type of thing. 
And this picture you paint is worse than “basic humanitarian aid to function”, it feels more like the bare minimum to subsist. Especially w/o major investments in rebuilding all the infrastructure etc. 

I think Israel could basically say 'whatever Gaza decides, fine, except we can blow it up'. And yeah, it would be very much the bare minimum. As Ran said chances are good that Israel would have zero importing from Israel to Gaza and require all aid to come in via Rafah, and have inspection crews on everything. It would be slow, entirely minimum, and not allow for any rebuilding of any sort. I don't think that Israel - or at least Netanyahu - has any interest in Israel doing things like rebuilding or financing or any single bit like that - so if no one else does it, it isn't gonna get done. 

And I don't know how many other people are going to be interested in rebuilding operations when Israel has the right of blowing it up whenever they choose to. 

[karaddin]

Yeah one of the things that struck me watching the destruction of Al-Azhar University is how crushing it would be if you'd spent decades trying to build up this avenue for people to try better themselves and get some opportunities in life just to watch it all be utterly destroyed in a literal minute.

I certainly wouldn't have the energy to start from scratch knowing it can be torn back down in a moment due to Hamas fucking you over by hijacking the area (and subsequent Israeli response) or just the whim of a fucked Israeli leader. 

[Clueless Northman]

39 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

and the end result is a Gaza that is a permanent non-state that gets humanitarian aid to basically function and acts as a large refugee camp or prison, depending on how hardcore Israel blockades go. 

Not sure how that would differ from current situation. Well, except it'd be even worse for the people in Gaza, so any sensible person would expect an even fiercer and bloodthirstier wish for revenge from them.

 

48 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think it would be great if there was any way for the UN to be involved, but I doubt that will happen.

Last time they were involved in trying to settle the situation or to run part of the place was back in 1947 and we know how it ended. Which was that their key representative was massacred by a bunch of fascists as ordered by some criminal who later became Prime Minister of Israel.

 

9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

As Ran said chances are good that Israel would have zero importing from Israel to Gaza and require all aid to come in via Rafah, and have inspection crews on everything. It would be slow, entirely minimum, and not allow for any rebuilding of any sort. I don't think that Israel - or at least Netanyahu - has any interest in Israel doing things like rebuilding or financing or any single bit like that - so if no one else does it, it isn't gonna get done. 

And I don't know how many other people are going to be interested in rebuilding operations when Israel has the right of blowing it up whenever they choose to. 

Oh, Israel has been bombing and destroying stuff the Europeans paid for in Gaza for decades, and Europeans kept quiet, never complained or asked for their money back. Since the current crop of EU "leaders" is worse than anything we've seen in the EU history, odds are that they could actually spend a few more billions and still clap when Israel bomb the infrastructure they paid for once again.

That said, if Israel refuses to rebuild and blockade the whole place, it would be the absolute dereliction of duty - Gaza not being an independent nation, Israel, whatever Netanyahu claims, is still the de jure occupying power with full resonsibility for the territory. Israel just can't do as if it's not its problem anymore. At least if there's anybody who still cares about international law.

[House Balstroko]

I think Israel needs to offer the  Palestinians an off-ramp in order to move forward. In exchange for Hamas leadership renouncing power, it dismantles all settlements in the West Bank. Merely trying to destroy Hamas is ultimately going to make the lives of Gaza’s citizens more miserable. That will just open the door for another organisation like Hamas to fill in the vacuum.