Israel - Hamas War XII

[karaddin]

Security is "supposed" to be the whole raison d'etre for right wing hardliners. If they ignore warnings and let terrible attacks happen then they're not much fucking use are they. And hopefully replacing them means replacing their catastrophically unsuccessful methods as well, rather than just changing faces and hoping someone else will just do it better.

Edited December 1, 2023 by karaddin
Fixed missing word

[Relic]

6 hours ago, GrimTuesday said:

Very interesting investigative piece from +972

https://www.972mag.com/mass-assassination-factory-israel-calculated-bombing-gaza/

A rather disturbing passage from the article

"In one case discussed by the sources, the Israeli military command knowingly approved the killing of hundreds of Palestinian civilians in an attempt to assassinate a single top Hamas military commander. “The numbers increased from dozens of civilian deaths [permitted] as collateral damage as part of an attack on a senior official in previous operations, to hundreds of civilian deaths as collateral damage,” said one source."

 

Would like to say that this is shocking, but its not. Its been painfully obvious. The only shocking thing is how many people supported, and continue to support, these Israeli attacks on civilian targets. 

An estimated 15,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza since Israeli forces began bombing the densely populated region. However, Palestinian health officials have lost the ability to track and count the deaths, as their health system collapses. 

JERUSALEM (AP) — Palestinian health officials in Gaza said Tuesday that they have lost the ability to count the dead because of the collapse of parts of the enclave’s health system and the difficulty of retrieving bodies from areas overrun by Israeli tanks and troops.

https://apnews.com/article/palestinians-israel-health-ministry-gaza-hamas-fe30cbc76479fa437d5f5a0e96c36e52

 

[Ran]

 

24 minutes ago, Relic said:

Would like to say that this is shocking

Why would you be shocked? An anonymous source from some minor left-wing website no one here has heard of before someone found it while doomscrolling social media is confirming your biases, it's the least shocking thing possible.

Is there any strike that we know of where "hundreds of civilians" were killed that was targeted at a commander alone? The closest I can think of was the Jabalya strike in late October, and the Gazan Health Ministry said the death toll was ~50, not "hundreds", and we basically never heard of it again.

[kissdbyfire]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

The NYT has confirmed their reporting lines up with your post to start the thread. Israel had some intelligence about a possible attack, they ignored it and then lied about it afterwards. Shocking. Netanyahu may very well get pushed out sooner than expected and perhaps a new leader will have a much better chance of making the situation better.  

We can hope.

[Mudguard]

IDF has resumed their bombing campaign.  And as predicted, they have dropped leaflets asking people to flee to Rafah.  Now the question is where will they ask people to move once they are more or less finished bombing Khan Younis and they shift their focus to Rafah.  Maybe Egypt?  People are running out of places to flee to.

[Relic]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

 

Why would you be shocked? An anonymous source from some minor left-wing website no one here has heard of before someone found it while doomscrolling social media is confirming your biases, it's the least shocking thing possible.

Is there any strike that we know of where "hundreds of civilians" were killed that was targeted at a commander alone? The closest I can think of was the Jabalya strike in late October, and the Gazan Health Ministry said the death toll was ~50, not "hundreds", and we basically never heard of it again.

I suppose I should have phrased it like this - "not shocking if true. Painfully obvious that preventing loss of civilian life is not high on the list of priorities. Only shocking thing  is how people keep making excuses for this Israeli government and its actions" and then I could have added something about confirming biases and blah blah. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Relic

[kissdbyfire]

49 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

IDF has resumed their bombing campaign.  And as predicted, they have dropped leaflets asking people to flee to Rafah.  Now the question is where will they ask people to move once they are more or less finished bombing Khan Younis and they shift their focus to Rafah.  Maybe Egypt?  People are running out of places to flee to.

Which is basically what many have been saying in these threads. 
 

Another thing is, I am shocked (not) by the news last night making such a HUGE deal about the NYT reporting on Netanyahu’s government failures irt warnings on an impending attack. Because that was reported on October 8 or 9 (or thereabouts) by Israeli newspapers like Haaretz iirc. Sure, more details were revealed more recently, but  it’s not like it should be such a shocking surprise to anyone paying attention. 

[Craving Peaches]

Nearly 100,000 Gaza buildings may be damaged, satellite images show - BBC News

It seems really improbable to me that everything in red is somehow a 'lawful military target'. It would be impossible for Hamas to actually use all of that unless every household has a Hamas member or is being used to store Hamas supplies.

[Bael's Bastard]

3 hours ago, Mudguard said:

IDF has resumed their bombing campaign. 

"Funny" way to describe Hamas repeatedly violating the cease fire and failing/being unable to come up with more hostages to keep the cease fire going despite still having more than 100 in Gaza.

[kissdbyfire]

So no one broke any ceasefires/pauses as far as I'm aware. Right? They had a deal, deliver more hostages and the pause will be extended, otherwise the war will resume - as in, the bombing campaign will resume. Correct?

I ask because I thought we were talking about the "here and now", this current conflict and not whatever happened 3 or 12 or 45 or however many years ago. 

Since in the past both sides broke  ceasefires it becomes a chicken or egg conundrum of who broke the most ceasefires. 

For what it's worth, both options are possible. Either making the debate about all of the time span since the Big Bang or about this current conflict. But making it about the former when it's convenient or the latter when it's more in support of a certain argument makes the whole exercise confusing. My 2p. 

 

[Frey family reunion]

9 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

So no one broke any ceasefires/pauses as far as I'm aware. Right? They had a deal, deliver more hostages and the pause will be extended, otherwise the war will resume - as in, the bombing campaign will resume. Correct?

I think I posted this yesterday:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/30/middleeast/hamas-jerusalem-bus-stop-shooting-intl/index.html

I’m assuming that Israel probably considers this a breach in the cease fire?

[Kalbear]

There was also a rocket fired from Gaza that idf intercepted, but it's not clear if that was hamas.

[kissdbyfire]

28 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think I posted this yesterday:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/30/middleeast/hamas-jerusalem-bus-stop-shooting-intl/index.html

I’m assuming that Israel probably considers this a breach in the cease fire?

Thanks, I missed that and I stand corrected!

 

[Frey family reunion]

5 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Thanks, I missed that and I stand corrected!

 

I mean, I don’t know if they do consider it a breach or not.  It wasn’t listed as a reason in any of the articles today.  I’m not even sure if the Hamas group that took credit for it was the one in Gaza or not, the article isn’t terribly clear.  

ETA: Nevermind, it clearly is from a faction of Hamas in Gaza.  

Edited December 1, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Mudguard]

The resumption of hostilities by the IDF and Hamas wasn't because there was a material breach of an agreement that resulted in the early termination of that agreement.  The parties just couldn't come to an agreement on another extension, so once the last agreement they made ran out, it was open season again.  I don't place fault with either party for this, and it was going to happen sooner or later.  Even if Hamas returned all the hostages and the halt lasted another week, we would eventually be back to where we are now.  Israel has made it very clear that they would resume their war on Hamas once the temporary ceasefire ended, and it turned out today was the day.

It doesn't look like the IDF has altered their strategy in any significant way yet, but we probably need a few more days to get a better sample size.  I'm still wondering whether the US is just providing lip service to reducing civilian casualties, but won't actually do anything meaningful to pressure Israel.  Blinken claimed that the US didn't want to see any more displacement of civilians, but the IDF is still trying to push everyone further south to the border with Egypt.  Also claimed that casualties couldn't be as high as before, but so far, casualties appear pretty high in the early going.  If the rate of casualties is the same, and if thousands are forced to Rafah, will the US actually do anything meaningful?

 

[Kalbear]

The US will do something very meaningful - they'll elect Trump. 

[mormont]

There's an assumption that the US can control Israel, certainly, but Netanyahu appears inclined to test that assumption.

[Mudguard]

Just now, mormont said:

There's an assumption that the US can control Israel, certainly, but Netanyahu appears inclined to test that assumption.

If the US stops providing military aid, Israel would be forced to comply.  But so far, they haven't been willing to even put any conditions on the receipt of all the military aid.

[Zorral]

5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Because that was reported on October 8 or 9 (or thereabouts) by Israeli newspapers like Haaretz iirc. Sure, more details were revealed more recently, but  it’s not like it should be such a shocking surprise to anyone paying attention. 

It was on the top of the news of the incursion and attack that very day, in fact, including in the WaPo!

 

Quote

 

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/november-30-2023?

.... Blinken noteed that Israel “intends to resume its military operations against Hamas when Hamas stops releasing hostages,” and he said the United States agrees that “Israel has the right to do everything it can to ensure that the slaughter Hamas carried out on October 7th can never be repeated.” That means, he said, “Hamas cannot remain in control of Gaza,” and he pointed to an attack this morning on a Jerusalem bus stop, for which Hamas claimed responsibility, that killed three Israeli citizens and wounded at least six others, including two American citizens. 

But, Blinken continued, “the way Israel defends itself matters. It’s imperative that Israel act in accordance with international humanitarian law and the laws of war, even when confronting a terrorist group that respects neither.” Blinken said that when he met today with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior Israeli officials, “I made clear that before Israel resumes major military operations, it must put in place humanitarian civilian protection plans that minimize further casualties of innocent Palestinians.”

They must, he said, protect Gazans by designating places in central and southern Gaza where they are out of the line of fire. They must avoid more displacement of citizens in Gaza and allow those already displaced to return as soon as conditions permit. They must avoid further damage to “life-critical infrastructure, like hospitals, like power stations, like water facilities.”

Even though Hamas embeds itself with civilians, “Israel has…one of the most sophisticated militaries in the world,” Blinken said. “It is capable of neutralizing the threat posed by Hamas while minimizing harm to innocent men, women, and children. And it has an obligation to do so. Ultimately, that’s not just the right thing to do, it’s also in Israel’s security interest.” 

Blinken said that Netanyahu and the members of the Israeli war cabinet “agreed with the need for this approach.” Blinken added that he had “underscored the imperative to the United States that the massive loss of civilian life and displacement of the scale we saw in northern Gaza not be repeated in the south.  As I told the prime minister, intent matters, but so does the result.”

Blinken noted that Hamas, too, could defuse the situation. It could release the remaining hostages immediately, “stop using civilians as human shields and stop using civilian infrastructure to stage and launch terrorist attacks.” It “could lay down its arms, surrender the leaders who are responsible for the slaughter, the torture, the rapes of October 7th. Hamas could renounce its stated goal of eliminating Israel, killing Jews, and repeating the atrocities of October 7th again and again and again.” ....

 

The proviso that Hamas must "surrender the leaders who are responsible for the slaughter, the torture, the rapes of October 7th" is complicated, if it is true, as Hamas has claimed, that it was thugs, not Hamas members. who committed the rapes, etc.  And if that claim happens to not be an untruth, then that further complicates for bibi&co their claims there were now warnings provided to them that something big was in the near offing -- because if non-Hamas gangsters knew enough to ride the coattails of Hamas for opportunistic looting etc., then how did Israel leadership not know attacks were imminent?

 

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

If the US stops providing military aid, Israel would be forced to comply.  But so far, they haven't been willing to even put any conditions on the receipt of all the military aid.

No, they wouldn't. Israel benefits from us aid but isn't dependent on it. Israel also supplies major important components of us military equipment that cannot easily be replaced. Israel doesn't need the us, especially not to take care of Hamas.