Ukraine War: incompetence vs fecklessness

[Altherion]

30 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That sounds like a false flag to justify something ugly.

It's not clear what exactly it is. It doesn't look like a straight up false flag, but it's entirely possible that the security services knew of it and did not intervene. If so, it could be intended to scale up the mobilization somewhat (this would be consistent with the Russian press secretary finally referring to the conflict as a war rather than a special operation). However, it could also be a random terrorist act or an attack by Ukrainian-aligned groups. It's very difficult to say what exactly this will be spun as -- we'll have to see.

[Werthead]

The US issued a warning two weeks ago that "extremists" were planning terrorist attacks inside Russia, including targeting concert halls. It went under the radar at the time but has come up again now.

Russian news sources saying that up to 40 are believed dead.

Ukraine has issued a denial that it was involved, and the US concurs there is no intelligence chatter supporting Ukrainian involvement. Even Russian news and government sources have hesitate to point the finger at Ukraine. This seems to have genuinely come out of nowhere to Russia (but possibly not US intelligence).

[Kalbear]

22 minutes ago, DMC said:

I was just trying to bring some levity in the face of horrible news.  Tbc, I agree with pg that there's no real reason to assume it's a false flag.

Yeah, I think the recent thing in Moldova possibly was, but very unlikely for something in Moscow at this time.

[Mudguard]

14 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The US issued a warning two weeks ago that "extremists" were planning terrorist attacks inside Russia, including targeting concert halls. It went under the radar at the time but has come up again now.

Russian news sources saying that up to 40 are believed dead.

Ukraine has issued a denial that it was involved, and the US concurs there is no intelligence chatter supporting Ukrainian involvement. Even Russian news and government sources have hesitate to point the finger at Ukraine. This seems to have genuinely come out of nowhere to Russia (but possibly not US intelligence).

I assume that the US shared their concerns and at least some of their evidence with Russia about the potential terrorist attack, especially if they were going to warn US citizens in Russia of this risk.  There was a large terrorist attack a little while ago in Iran, I think, where the US claimed that they shared intel with Iran that a potential terrorist attack was imminent.

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

There was a large terrorist attack a little while ago in Iran, I think, where the US claimed that they shared intel with Iran that a potential terrorist attack was imminent.

Yeah it was the ISIS attack in January.  It is US policy to share any actionable intelligence of an imminent attack.  I would assume/hope they did so if that was the case here.

[Werthead]

OSINT sources saying the Russian police have put out an arrest warrant for five men from Ingushetia, although this does not appear confirmed yet.

Interesting if this is the "North Caucasus" group rearing its head again. This was a jihadist organisation that fought alongside the Chechens during the Second Chechen War, then went solo in Ingushetia and Dagestan. They halted operations in Russia to redeploy their assets to Syria to fight Russian forces there. They've been a generally low-key group of limited importance, but there has been concern over the fact they contain Russian citizens and can speak Russian, so could operate in Russia itself relatively freely.

[Mudguard]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/22/europe/crocus-moscow-shooting/index.html

Isis claiming responsibility for the Moscow attack.  Don't know whether ISIS has a history of claiming credit for things they didn't do, but ISIS wasn't at the top of my list as potential suspects for this.

ETA: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68642036?src_origin=BBCS_BBC

BBC live report thread has some interesting details.

Quote

Report: Islamic State claims responsibility

Reuters news agency is reporting that Islamic State have claimed responsibility for the attack on its Telegram channel.

The report has not been independently verified. The group, also known as ISIS, has carried out attacks in a number of countries, however BBC security correspondent Gordon Corera notes that the group has at times in the past claimed responsibility for attacks that it had nothing to do with.

On 7 March, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said it prevented an attack on a synagogue in Moscow that was being planned by an Islamic State cell.

The FSB said attackers opened fire during the attempted arrest and were "neutralized by return fire", but few other details were given about the alleged plot.

I'm not familiar with Russia's problems with ISIS on its own soil, but this makes it seem more likely that ISIS really was responsible, even though in the past ISIS has claimed credit for attacks it didn't do.

Edited March 22 by Mudguard

[Clueless Northman]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That sounds like a false flag to justify something ugly.

Exactly. Just like 9/11 and Bataclan were false flags.

(I suppose the "sarcasm" tag isn't necessary - at this point, Putin doesn't need this, he could order full mobilization and a majority would most probably follow and agree with it...)

 

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I think one of the more dangerous things that US and western democracies do is believe that if someone lives in an authoritarian environment that they don't actually like it and want More Freedom. It's very likely that he's not as popular as that in Russia, but it's also very likely that he is very popular and their society is closer to what they want to do than the freedom one. 

To be brutally honest, he would've won all his elections, even if done legit with opponents allowed. He just wouldn't get 60+% of the votes at once, but I'm quite sure he'd get the plurality, though with a far smaller margin, and obviously he doesn't like that.

 

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Yeah it was the ISIS attack in January.  It is US policy to share any actionable intelligence of an imminent attack.  I would assume/hope they did so if that was the case here.

I hope, and I hope Russian officials won't stupidly deny it if it actually happened. Though there's a long tradition of not paying attention to the other side's advice, like Russia (and others that would be less of an opponent) warning Bush administration in mid-2001.

Edited March 22 by Clueless Northman

[Werthead]

Some reporting that the ISIS claim has come through a fake account, but the BBC and several US news networks are saying that their sources they have that are long-affiliated with ISIS, or affiliated with affiliations of ISIS (that's a thing, apparently), are all confirming that this was an ISIS strike.

The US is also saying it had firm intelligence of ISIS planning attacks against Russian interests and did directly inform Russia several weeks ago under its legal obligation to do so.

[Mudguard]

In the CNN article I linked above, there was this tidbit:

Quote

Earlier this month, the US embassy in Russia said it was “monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow,” including concerts. The embassy warned US citizens to avoid large gatherings.

In a speech Tuesday to Russia’s federal security agency, Putin called the embassy’s warnings about potential terror attacks in Moscow “provocative,” saying “these actions resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilize our society.”

So at the very least, Russia was aware that the US warned it's citizen's in Russia about a potential attack.  Putin's speech several days ago didn't age well.  Doubt that Russian media will point this out.  I googled a bit to try and find confirmation of this speech, and one website that was linked was to a Russian news source from the day of the speech that confirmed the story.  I'm wondering if those Russian articles will get scrubbed.

[Darzin]

17 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I think one of the more dangerous things that US and western democracies do is believe that if someone lives in an authoritarian environment that they don't actually like it and want More Freedom. It's very likely that he's not as popular as that in Russia, but it's also very likely that he is very popular and their society is closer to what they want to do than the freedom one. 

Yeah Westerners especially Western liberals have a hard time imagining that "the people" may not want a happy tolerant liberal democracy and may have other goals, or may just view their government as legitimate. We don't have much of a hard time understanding the Assyrians may have viewed their government as legitimate but have a hard time in the modern context. There was reddit post talking about Balon Greyjoy and his goals which despite asoiaf I think illustrates these type of goal divergence;

Quote

Well, because liberals are kind of unable to understand the conservative perspective and think that conservatives are just dumb. (Whether they're right or wrong is not a subject for this subreddit.) Balon Greyjoy is, well, a conservative. There's the Old Way, and he wants to return to the Old Way, in typical conservative fashion. Theon, growing up paying the gold price, is clearly not a member of the tribe at the moment he meets his father.

The thing is, he's actually very successful as a conservative ruler. He turns his people back towards reaving, with the support of the national religion to boot. He wants the Ironborn to be feared all over the Sunset Sea, and he does that. When he gets killed, it's not because of any mistakes he made, but rather because his brother sees his chance. Euron, for his part, is an extremely successful conservative ruler as well. You have Asha as the liberal in the election, promising peace and prosperity, and of course she loses to the conservative Euron, who promises to make the Iron Islands great again, promising not peace but power and world domination. He eliminates his opposition, executing the Blacktydes and marrying Asha to that old dude whose name I don't remember (Erik something?) and generally buying the loyalty of those who might otherwise stand in his way. Euron is very good at getting people to follow him. Those who are just too independent -- Aeron, for one -- have no power against the sea of nationalist fervor Euron foments.

Your assessment of Balon as stupid assumes that what he wants is an independent nation living in peace with its neighbors. But that's exactly what Asha promises, and you can see what the Ironborn think of that. No, Balon isn't after peace and indepdendence. He's after the Old Way. That's what he wants. And he's clearly not alone in that in the Iron Islands.

 

Edited March 23 by Darzin

[DireWolfSpirit]

Its ISIS-K specifically  that is claiming the Moscow attack.

They are interesting in that many of them have splintered off from ISIS and Taliban because "they arent extreme enough", .

"ISIS-K formed around 2015. The 'K' in its name stands for Khorasan. It's a historical name for a region that covers Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and part of Central Asia. 

Even with similar beliefs, ISIS-K is a lot more intense than ISIS. ISIS-K tends to recruit Afghan and Taliban defectors who feel the Taliban's methods aren't extreme enough."

I think theyve found a new perfect target.

 

 

Edited March 23 by DireWolfSpirit

[DireWolfSpirit]

The reported death toll has now increased to 115 souls.

[SeanF]

If it’s IS, is it likely to be revenge for Syria?

[SeanF]

7 hours ago, Darzin said:

Yeah Westerners especially Western liberals have a hard time imagining that "the people" may not want a happy tolerant liberal democracy and may have other goals, or may just view their government as legitimate. We don't have much of a hard time understanding the Assyrians may have viewed their government as legitimate but have a hard time in the modern context. There was reddit post talking about Balon Greyjoy;  

 

Sad, but true.  

[DireWolfSpirit]

Heard interesting reporting that theres a proposal to use the interest from the $200 billion in frozen oligarch funds and give the proceeds to Ukraine to fund weapons purchases.

The interest alone was something like $3-4 billion, so its a worthwhile/helpful amount.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

It might be best to move this conversation to the international news thread. It doesn't appear to be connected to the war.

[Werthead]

5 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

"ISIS-K formed around 2015. The 'K' in its name stands for Khorasan. It's a historical name for a region that covers Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and part of Central Asia. 

Even with similar beliefs, ISIS-K is a lot more intense than ISIS. ISIS-K tends to recruit Afghan and Taliban defectors who feel the Taliban's methods aren't extreme enough."

I think theyve found a new perfect target.

I believe ISIS-K members have even agitated for attacking China in revenge for their treatment of the Uygher (and they have access via the remote border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan), but even their leadership has hesitated over that so far. These are the guys who really do not give a fuck what they do or the consequences of their actions.

48 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If it’s IS, is it likely to be revenge for Syria?

The religious-political angle is very complex, but you have essentially a lot of Muslims from the Caucasus region who were very angry at the Chechen War, and even angrier at its conclusion when they believe - correctly - Kadyrov sold the Chechen people out to Putin in return for personal enrichment, gold toilets etc. Even after the end of the Second Chechen War and its prolonged aftermath (when fighting in the north Caucasus continued for many years after Kadyrov signed up to Team Putin, in one year almost killing a thousand Russian security personnel), you had Caucasus-based jihadist groups continuing to target the Russian government.

When the conflict in Syria started, the Russian government offered these groups something of a bizarre amnesty, releasing some from prison and allowing others to leave Russian territory unharmed to fight as part of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (presumably hoping they'd target US and allied forces). Whether the Russians realised they themselves would be engaged in that conflict shortly thereafter is unclear.

However those groups still retain a hardcore element who want to liberate Chechnya and the north Caucasus and create an Islamic Republic in those areas, and have carried out occasional attacks to this end. In some cases, yes, it's likely the attacks have been inspired by the stalemate in Syria and maybe anger at Ukraine and Gaza taking the eyes of the world off that conflict.

ISIS-K are also very, very unpleasant, to the point that it's believed the US has provided the Taliban with intelligence on ISIS-K operations in Afghanistan because, as problematic as the Taliban are, they're easier to deal with then these fucking total lunatics.

24 minutes ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

It might be best to move this conversation to the international news thread. It doesn't appear to be connected to the war.

Some Russian sources are still blaming Ukraine outright. One Russian security report even says the attackers planned to cross the border into Ukraine to escape, with the help of the Ukrainian intelligence services, so I'd hold fire on that for now. There are some in Russia agitating to make this part of the Ukrainian conflict.

[Zorral]

As per usual, ser chatter is wrong:

Moscow concert hall attack: Putin tells Russians Ukraine linked to attack which killed 133, claims denied by Kyiv officials – live updates

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/23/moscow-concert-attack-crocus-city-hall-shooting-russia-live-updates

Edited March 23 by Zorral

[polishgenius]

I'll just come out and say it: I don't think we can trust Putin on this.