US Politics: Losing Appeals

[Zorral]

A Financial Reckoning for Donald Trump
The former President’s inability to secure a $464-million bond in his New York civil fraud case is a reminder of the deep legal and financial peril he’s in.
By John Cassidy
March 19, 2024

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/a-financial-reckoning-for-donald-trump

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.... Fast-forward slightly more than a year and a half, and James’s case represents the most imminent threat to the former President and his business empire. In February, Judge Arthur F. Engoron imposed a huge fine of $354.9 million on Trump, his two eldest sons, and their associates, plus an interest charge of $98.6 million. On Monday, Trump’s lawyers told an appellate court in New York that their client had been unable to secure a bond that would guarantee the eventual payment of the fine while he appeals Engoron’s ruling. They asked the court to waive the bond, or reduce it from four hundred and sixty-four million dollars to a hundred million dollars, claiming it was a “practical impossibility” for Trump to raise such a sum. If the appeals court rejects Trump’s requests, then, at least in theory, James’s office could start legal action as early as next week to freeze his bank accounts and seize some of his real-estate assets.

At a moment when Trump’s legal team has been enjoying a run of success in delaying the four criminal cases against their client, Monday’s development came as a reminder of the deep legal and financial peril that Trump is in. During the court proceedings in the New York civil case, it emerged that Deutsche Bank, Trump’s biggest lender, had estimated his net worth at $2.6 billion. On the face of it, that figure seems to imply that paying a fine even as large as nearly half a billion dollars shouldn’t be ruinous to him. But that isn’t necessarily the case.

To obtain a bond of this type, defendants are usually required to post liquid assets—cash or securities—as collateral with the company that issues the bond. Most of Trump’s fortune is in the form of illiquid real estate. In a deposition last year, Trump said that his companies had more than four hundred million dollars in cash or cash equivalents, which may well be an exaggeration. In addition, he has already had to file a separate $91.6 million bond with a federal court while he appeals a judgment against him in the defamation case filed by the writer E. Jean Carroll. According to an MSNBC report, Trump pledged a brokerage account with Charles Schwab to obtain this bond. It’s unclear how much wealth he has left in the form of liquid assets, but it’s probably nothing like the amount he would need to post as collateral for the other huge bond he needs. ....

Quote

 

... In their court filing, Trump’s lawyers said that the Trump Organization had worked with four  insurance brokers and approached thirty companies that provide bonds, but none of them had agreed to supply one for the James case. In a statement accompanying the filing, Gary Giulietti, a senior executive at one of the brokers that had worked with the Trump Organization, Lockton, said that only a handful of insurance companies were approved by the Treasury Department to underwrite bonds of the size that Trump requires, and “none of these sureties will accept hard assets such as real estate as collateral. Instead, they will only accept cash or cash equivalents (such as marketable securities).” In another statement filed with the court, Alan Garten, the general counsel for the Trump Organization, said that Chubb, a big insurance company, had originally agreed to consider accepting a mixture of liquid assets and real estate as collateral for a bond, but within the past week it had notified the defendants that “it could not accept real estate as collateral.”

That leaves Trump in a bind. In theory, he could take out a mortgage against some of his real-estate properties and use the proceeds as collateral for the bond, but they may well be encumbered by existing mortgages. (With a big private company like the Trump Organization, it’s impossible to know from the outside the true state of its finances.) Another option would be to quickly sell some of his properties. But engaging in such a “fire sale” would “inevitably result in massive, irrecoverable losses—textbook irreparable injury,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in Monday’s filing. Yet another possible option would be to try to secure a loan or investment from a third party—but who would give Trump half a billion dollars on short notice? ....

 

Bankruptcy, a way out of it for him?

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... If James’s office were to start legal action to collect payment of the fine imposed by Engoron, the process could be long and messy, involving efforts by the state to foreclose on individual buildings owned by various Trump entities. In looking at options to forestall such an outcome, Trump “has not ruled out the possibility of having the corporate entities declare bankruptcy,” the Times reported on Monday, citing “people with knowledge of the discussions.” A bankruptcy filing would provide Trump with temporary protection from his creditors, including the New York attorney general’s office, but it would hardly be costless. The fate of his business empire would then be in the hands of the bankruptcy court, and he would also have to consider the political implications of his companies filing for bankruptcy during a Presidential-election campaign. ....

 

Edited March 20 by Zorral

[Wilbur]

We had our Presidential Preference election here in Arizona yesterday, with the generally expected outcomes.

I volunteered as a Maricopa County polling station clerk, and the systems and processes all worked smoothly, incorporating a number of marginal improvements over the last operation.  The voting apparatus worked well, with only a single re-start required in the 13-hour open polling hours - one of the LexMark ballot printers.  In general voters came with sufficient voter ID, and the SiteBooks have several different ways for us to process the various combos or identification Arizona state law requires.  We had a fairly steady trickle of voters, despite the fact that the competitors from both parties are already clear.  The judges alerted everyone to the two first-time voters, one a recently naturalized immigrant and one an 18-year-old girl with her dad, and we gave them both a big cheer.

The voters were generally orderly and cordial.  A small minority had passive-aggressive comments regarding various conspiracy theories, and one or two were unruly and uncivil in minor ways.  A new local district GOP party chair (and Trump nut) came in and wasted everyone's time by objecting to the language on the signature screen, requiring some calls to the county HQ, but eventually she voted and left.  I am not really sure what she expected to prove, since she clearly came geared up to fight over it without understanding the processes used to deal with the situation.  Even the GOP monitor grew bored and went back to her seat and rolled her eyes after ten minutes or so of it.

After the marshal closed the polls, it took us less than two hours to collect, count, document, seal and lock the various types of ballots, control slips, affidavits, spoiled ballots, tabulator paper reports, unused ballot paper stock, envelopes, etc. from our polling location.  The electronic voting information had, of course, already been transmitted to the HQ, but we had about two-thirds of the voters bring their mail-in ballot and deposit it in the ballot drop box.  Again, the training the county required us to take, the comprehensive manuals and checklists, etc. were all quite good.

It was an interesting, if long and tiring, experience.  Everyone should volunteer to work on a poll at least once to exercise your civic muscles.

[Week]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You are more insightful that this.  You are.

 

Ivermectin is a helluva drug.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8942456/

Quote

Adhering to recommended doses, ivermectin is generally well tolerated. Common adverse effects associated with ivermectin include diarrhoea and nausea. However, significant symptoms can arise when ivermectin is overdosed. Symptoms of ivermectin overdose include gastrointestinal symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhoea [9]. In addition, hypotension and neurologic effects such as decreased consciousness, confusion, hallucinations, seizures, coma, and death have been described [9].

 

[ThinkerX]

At this point, I expect the 2024 general election to be a sort of blurry carbon copy of the 2020 general election, with the same result - Biden wins, the Democrats retain the Senate and take the House.

[DMC]

Don't think this has been mentioned much on here, but Larry Hogan has the potential to lock up the Senate for the GOP:

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The Washington Post-University of Maryland survey found Hogan beating both likely Democratic contenders by double digits in hypothetical general election matchups. The moderate Republican led Rep. David Trone, 49 percent to 37 percent, and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 50 percent to 36 percent.

But the poll, which surveyed 1,004 registered Maryland voters March 5-12, also showed that 55 percent of voters want Democrats in control of the Senate, compared with 35 percent who favored Republicans. 

The bolded presents an interesting dynamic - will Marylanders vote strategically to ensure the Dems hold the seat or go with Hogan, easily the strongest challenger this cycle?

[Maithanet]

11 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

At this point, I expect the 2024 general election to be a sort of blurry carbon copy of the 2020 general election, with the same result - Biden wins, the Democrats retain the Senate and take the House.

I hope you're right, but I feel like holding the Senate is a really, really heavy lift.  The last time this class was up was 2018 and the Democrats had a great night and STILL lost a seat (won 2, lost 3).  This time the pickup opportunities are worse, and since they're already at 50 with Manchin gone, they have to run the table from there.  Very tall order in a presidential year. 

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

The bolded presents an interesting dynamic - will Marylanders vote strategically to ensure the Dems hold the seat or go with Hogan, easily the strongest challenger this cycle?

Here's a good article about that.

Quote

With his near-universal name recognition and a rosy legacy, it would not be surprising to see Hogan begin the race polling competitively, or even ahead, of the leading Democratic candidates. Engaged readers may recall similar polling situations with Evan Bayh, Phil Bredesen, and Steve Bullock, who led many polls in the early stages of the campaign. Nevertheless, they all succumbed to political gravity, and all three faced a shorter hill to climb than Hogan does.

Plenty of popular governors have run as moderates to flip senate seats.  Many of them polled very well in the spring and summer, and they all lost significant ground by November.  A popular governor can realistically make a difference of 10 or maybe even 15 points in a senate race, but Maryland is Biden +33.  Overcoming a deficit like that is basically unprecedented.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Plenty of popular governors have run as moderates to flip senate seats.  Many of them polled very well in the spring and summer, and they all lost significant ground by November.

Of course it's going to tighten up but the comparisons to Bayh and Bredesen in particular are faulty.  Bayh was a former governor, sure, but he also was a two-term Senator afterwards who had retired four years earlier when he ran decided to run again.  Bredesen had been out of office for eight years that in the meantime Tennessee became significantly more conservative.

Hogan, meanwhile, just left office last year and his ideological proximity is much closer to Maryland's median voter -- not to mention having appeal as one of the most high-profile anti-Trump Republicans.  At the least, Hogan promises to be much more competitive than any of the above three - all of whom lost by double digits.

[Kalbear]

I think it's a real weird thing for Hogan, in that he'll almost certainly have to go hard against Trump if he wants any chance to win, but that will almost certainly cost him quite a bit with Trump himself. Or if he doesn't do that, well, I think the partisanship will basically fuck him over. 

My suspicion is that simply running on a campaign that Hogan will vote with the other Republicans to take away abortion rights, confirm more conservative justices and ensure Trump gets away with 1-6 would make it real hard for him to win. 

[DMC]

BTW, that article's timeframe conveniently omits another governor that won a Senate seat - Joe Manchin.

[Kalbear]

Just now, DMC said:

BTW, that article's timeframe conveniently omits another governor that won a Senate seat - Joe Manchin.

Sure, though I'm pretty sure he won when WV was considerably bluer and him going for that seat was not a particularly weird thing. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Sure, though I'm pretty sure he won when WV was considerably bluer and him going for that seat was not a particularly weird thing. 

Well, kinda.  Obama lost West Virginia by only 13 in 2008, but by 27 in 2012.  Manchin won a special election in 2010, then the seat outright in 2012.

Also, yes, I absolutely expect Hogan to run against Trump in terms of his personal scandals and/or 1/6.  That's just being consistent.

[mcbigski]

15 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You are more insightful that this.  You are.

 

Search your feelings.  You know it to be true.

8 hours ago, Week said:

Ivermectin is a helluva drug.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8942456/

 

I'd rather they give that than remdesivir to any of my loved ones.  But since the medical establishment got assimilated into the big state (obamacare, lower premiums and better outcomes, right?  Definitely what I was promised from this site.), somehow the best treatments are the ones that are still under patent.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Quote

In addition, hypotension and neurologic effects such as decreased consciousness, confusion, hallucinations, seizures, coma, and death have been described

 

Thank you proving the point, I guess.

[ThinkerX]

Okay...

So... NYC can start seizing Trump's property to pay his fine come March 25.

As I understand it, a major part of Trump's self-image is tied up with him being a successful billionaire real estate mogul. NYC confiscating his properties is a major blow to that self-image. And Trump has already been displaying increasing indicators of 'cognitive decline.' Add the one to the other...

A mental collapse of some sort - something really blatantly obvious even to most of Trump's followers?

Or maybe this is where Trump openly - as on national television - calls for the assassination of the relevant judge and DA? (This is Trump, after all.)

[Bironic]

I don’t think his followers would care. A cult doesn’t work that way. Some of the independents/swing voters and nikki Haley republicans might care though…

Yes I think this particular lawsuit more than some of the others gets to the Donald personally, because it’s not only that he made the successful businessman his image, I think he sincerely believes that he is one. Some of his self esteem might hinge on that belief, and now it might be taken away, so yes saying something deranged is a reasonable assumption. And saying deranged things is kind of his shtick anyways…

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Electorally, it doesn't matter. It might have made a difference in 2015/16, if this charade of successful businessman had fallen apart then to derail his primary campaign. But even then those feeble and feebleminded GOP hopeless in that primary would have lacked the cojones to attack him head on. And in the GE that long harbored animosity towards HRC could still have sent him to the WH.

As for his self-image/self-worth being tied up to his bank account. Yeah, but he has not been playing with a full deck for years, whether his playing deck consists of 5, 4, or 3 cards doesn't make a difference to a large chunks of Americans obviously. Whether they overdosed on Ivermectin, paint thinner, Jack Daniels or whateffs is not for me to say. This entire movement is built upon resentment. So even if Smith would get a conviction, those people would still vote for him. I mean, what do you say to people who still have not gotten off this train.

Edited March 21 by A Horse Named Stranger

[ThinkerX]

I might not have been clear. By 'mental collapse,' I meant something along the lines of Aphasia - an inability to speak coherently at all.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

More incoherent than now?

To your point. Very unlikely. Narcissitic wound leading to a meltdown and a depressive episode. Possibly. Alas, this is not the first time him facing down a bankruptcy (would be lucky number seven, iirc). So I can see him filing for bankruptcy, delaying proceedings and kicking the proverbial can down to bankruptcy court, and decrying the meany unreasonable lefties in NY forcing him to do that (political witch hunt yadda, yadda, maga).

 

[ThinkerX]

51 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

More incoherent than now?

yes. Utterly incoherent. As in not being able to communicate verbally,