Aussies LXI- Summer is coming!

[The Marquis de Leech]

If you don't count the Lib Dems, the last Brit to lose two elections as party leader was Neil Kinnock in 87 and 92.

Ted Heath and Clement Attlee managed three election losses, and Winston Churchill managed two (including one landslide loss).

In New Zealand, Helen Clark ousted Mike Moore from the Labour leadership in December 1993. She went on to lose in 1996, but then won 1999, 2002, and 2005. Bill Rowling lost three elections (1975, 1978, and 1981), and Norm Kirk lost two elections before winning his third one.

Perhaps the modern era (and Australia generally) is less tolerant of losers. The greater emphasis placed on Presidential-type campaigns might also be a factor: people are more likely to blame the leader.

[Jeor]

I find it rather amusing (but generally true) how US and British media tend to portray Australian politics as barbaric jungles where pollies routinely get knifed in palace coups. I suppose compared to the US (where you don't really have formal party leaders as such) our leadership politics do seem rather brutal. And our parliamentary debates are certainly much rowdier than the UK.

Looking at the list of Labor and Liberal leaders in the past 20-30 years does show that they have a short shelf life.

Liberal: Peacock (10 months), Hewson (4 years!), Downer (8 months), Howard (12 years while in power), Nelson (9 months), Turnbull (1 year), and now Abbott.

Labor: Crean (2 years), Latham (1 year), Beazley II (1 year), Rudd (3 years, we know how that ended), Gillard (3 years, same thing), Rudd (3 months).

It suggests if you're not in power, you won't last more than 2 years. Abbott and Hewson are the exceptions. Poisoned chalice for the Labor leadership indeed...

[Screaming Turkey Ultimate]

As much as I find a Liberal government distasteful, I love seeing all the delicious, delicious butt hurt on the internet.

[SeanF]

I like how openly partisan Aussie politicians are, much more honest then the ruling class club we have here in the US

You don't get UK politicians calling each other perfumed gigolos, pimps etc.

[Every]

If I was able to change only one thing about our political system, it would be party discipline. A little more free will and a little more spine from our backbenchers wouldn't go amiss.

Maybe someone like Penny Wong will take over, as a sort of caretaker opposition leader while Labor gets itself sorted out and then chooses someone to take them to the next election (not that I don't think Penny could be a successful PM, but I don' think she wants to).

[Horza]

Ah, the Australian Senate...

On provisional quotas:

- the Liberal Democratic Party (US-style libertarians) get up in NSW because they were listed ahead of the Liberals and ~200,000 NSW voters couldn't spot the difference.

- The Australian Sports Party get up in WA despite getting 1908 votes on first count thanks to an utterly Byzantine preference allocation

Nah, nothing the matter there.

Oh, and enjoy, Victorians.*

_{*yeah, it's a parody, but you still elected him}

[The Winged Shadow]

I was hoping the Senate balance would be held by lefties, so the carbon scheme and mining tax won't get scrapped. But with all these weirdos in senate, I don't think Liberals will have a hard time getting the votes for a repeal.

[karaddin]

Yeah, that's what I was hoping for as well TWS. Now who knows what these candidates who never expected to win will demand for their votes.

Hopefully this is enough to get some reform on the Senate voting system.

[The Marquis de Leech]

Looking at the list of Labor and Liberal leaders in the past 20-30 years does show that they have a short shelf life.

Liberal: Peacock (10 months), Hewson (4 years!), Downer (8 months), Howard (12 years while in power), Nelson (9 months), Turnbull (1 year), and now Abbott.

Labor: Crean (2 years), Latham (1 year), Beazley II (1 year), Rudd (3 years, we know how that ended), Gillard (3 years, same thing), Rudd (3 months).

For comparison, New Zealand in the same period:

Labour: Moore (3 years, two elections lost). Clark (15 years, 1 lost election, three wins, then another loss), Goff (3 years, 1 loss), Shearer (2 years, has just quit without fighting election).

National (Tory): Bolger (11 years, 1 election loss, then three wins), Shipley (3 years, 1 loss), English (3 years, 1 loss), Brash (4 years, 1 loss), Key (6 years, two wins).

That's a bit more stable than Australia, but still a far cry from the days where party leaders invariably stayed for a decade or so (the only major party leader who didn't last at least four years from 1936 to 1989 was Jim McLay's two years in 1984-86).

[Horza]

God bless Jaymes Diaz, he's still hanging in there...

Mr Diaz finally appeared at his campaign party just before 10pm in a Toongabbie carpark and was adamant he could still claim the marginal seat.

"It's too close to call," he said.

"There's still a lot of votes to come in and we'll probably know more about it tomorrow."

When asked why he was such a late arrival at his own party, he said "I've been going around, talking to a lot of people."

[brook]

He's the gift that keeps on giving

[Horza]

Trying to figure out the Senate...

32 Lib/Nats, and 25 Labor, that's pretty safe to say.

But then, holy fuck...

GRN 9-11, with WA's Scott Ludlam not out of the woods and Simon Sheik in a close race vs the Libs in the ACT

LDP 1 (oh, NSW)

DLP 1

PUP 2

MEP 1 (nice one, Victoria)

Sports Party 1 (wtf...)

Xenophon

+ 1 Family First or Climate Sceptic (thanks, SA)

These are all provisional, and counting won't wrap up for a week at least but that's not looking great for holding off Carbon Tax repeal. The LDP and Motoring are sceptics, Palmer is opposed to it, and plus Family First/Climate Sceptics that's 38 votes right there. Abbott would only need one more vote from Madigan (DLP), Xenophon or Sports Party Guy.

Unknowns are whether the Greens can pick up 11 by winning 2nd quota in the ACT and how high Palmer is going to set his price - on this performance he wouldn't be afraid of a double dissolution. But I seem to recall Abbott saying something about a blood pledge so I suspect whatever Clive wants, he'll get.

[Stubby]

The Sports Party website claims to honour honesty and integrity and evidence.

And the ABC said Ludlam is elected.

[Ouroboros]

Who the fuck are the Sports Party and the Motor Enthusiast Party and how the hell did they get more than a couple joke votes?

[Horza]

And the ABC said Ludlam is elected.

According to their projections. He's not counting his chickens just yet.

Who the fuck are the Sports Party and the Motor Enthusiast Party and how the hell did they get more than a couple joke votes?

Sports Party Guy is a total unknown, but Motor Enthusiasts are part of the Shootin' and Fishin' and F--k Off Greenies fraternity. And the reason they're both up is because current party registration requirements and the group voting ticket system flood the Senate ballot with attractive-sounding microparties that can take your preferences for a wild ride to crazytown.

Forex:

in NSW Animal Justice Party preferences got the Liberal Democratic Party elected over the Greens - how many people who put them above the line realised that their group voting ticket went through nearly every fringe-right party first? Ditto Bullet Train and Stop CSG, which delivered to Australia First and Family First ahead of the Greens.

Check out the preference flows at www.belowtheline.org.au - nearly every microparty first circulates its preferences with other micros, almost always with no clear ideological rationale; the Sex Party put far right parties like Australian Voice ahead of libertarian groups like Drug Law Reform, and One Nation ahead of the Greens.

[Gears of the Beast]

I'm only angry that Abbott won because his internet plan is stupid as fuck. I'm pretty sure Somalia will have faster internet than us by 2019. I'm 17 and will be able to live/work in the EU and the US. I love Australia but a man's gotta have fast internet...

[Horza]

Oh, and behold the glittering wonder that is the Australian Independents website, where their vast and extensive policies page informs us that:

Higher Education:

• The Australian Independents are for all university places to be HECS free.
  
• The Australian Independents are for all TAFE places to be fee free.
  
• The Australian Independents are for a significant increase in fully funded TAFE and university places.
  
• The Australian Independents are for significant investment in research and development.
  
• The Australian Independents are for an increase in funding to support science and technology research industries.
  

Economy:

• The Australian Independents are for responsible economic management.
  
• The Australian Independents will push for an end to wasteful spending.
  
• The Australian Independents are for returning the Budget to surplus.
  
• The Australian Independents are for a reduction in taxes.
  
• The Australian Independents are for a reduction in the company tax rate in order to assist small business.
  
• The Australian Independents are for an increase in productivity and growth.
  
• The Australian Independents stand for job creation, employment opportunities.
  

A massive boost to education funding, tax cuts and a return to surplus - that all checks out. Hey, and unlike those other parties they're in favour of productivity and growth!

This sounds awesome - they also want to boost our refugee intake to 50,000 and cut carbon emissions by 40% by 2030, but nowhere on their website do they reveal their group voting ticket... which preferences Australia First and One Nation right up the top.

[Gillio]

I'm confused. I thought independents were those who didnt belong to a party?

[Horza]

I'm confused. I thought independents were those who didnt belong to a party?

I think last night taught us that anything is possible in Australian politics.

[Gillio]

reason, commonsense. integrity?