US Elections: If you experience a painful election...

[DunderMifflin]

5 minutes ago, SerPaladin said:

So the election night discussion on FiveThirtyEight had an interesting nugget. Trump won with white women?  Backed up with a story on CBS News. Might be going from the same data set. That's kind of shocking, no?

Maybe white women are maniacal, frothing at the mouth, KKK hood wearing racists just like all Trump voters.

[DraculaAD1972]

2 minutes ago, SerPaladin said:

So the election night discussion on FiveThirtyEight had an interesting nugget. Trump won with white women?  Backed up with a story on CBS News. Might be going from the same data set. That's kind of shocking, no?

They responded to Trump's alpha-dog paternalism....with more enthusiasm than expected. Surprising yes but not shocking. 

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Are you saying the result could be flipped?  That would be a story.

No. The incoming ballots should be roughly proportional to what's already come in. If anything, Clinton's lead will expand a little bit. If there was any doubt the networks wouldn't have called it.

The only question is whether Clinton's national popular vote margin will be larger than Gore's was in 2000; and that's what California will decide.

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

47 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Agreed.  Once you start to demonize a decent human being like Romney, you lose your ability to draw a true contrast with a Trump.

I an friends with a woman who posted something similar on Facebook . She admitted that Democrats are just as responsible for Trump as Republicans. She put H.W., W, and McCain in there with Romney.

[TheKitttenGuard]

2 minutes ago, Castel said:

 

The reality is, between gerrymandering and so on, the GOP and their supposed voiceless base has had an arguably disproportionately loud voice.

I wonder if this is Democrats and their focus on presidential elections at play again. These guys hold two branches of Congress and the majority of state houses and we're having discussions about how "their voices are not being heard" cause they don't have the Presidency? What? 

Trump won MI, PA, and WI.  These were solid Blue States for decades.  They are also state that are most perceived to have been hurt by the free trade deals. 

All the major "scientific" polling clearly missed something for they did not see the magnitude of the shift with Non-College educated working Whites.

I agree on a lot of points but I also know there was a growing disconnect with the Democratic Party getting quite comfortable with more Corporate closeness when it came to Social issues and whatever their concerns of Democrats  was simple lip service.  Also, solution that do get offer cut against their sense of, perceived, worth.  I may really believed that efficiency and raising wages no longer correlate that something like a Basic Wage is feasible.  Not many do and the idea of just getting a government check as something as a personal insult.

 

I really think things are more muddled on the overall Left/Right divide then either side is looking at.  There are some real challenges coming and I have some despair but I do not see some great ideological triumph that is being claimed.  I see a triumph of Personality politics and that have real non-ideological concerns.

[Castel]

17 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

As someone who is always perilously close to 'anti-American'...usually specific to foreign policy and shit like guns/prisons/racism/militarism/etc. I'm still shocked this actually happened. It's an old adage, but always true; if you have a foreigner and an American write a description of what America is and what it's likely to do, the foreigner is much more likely to be accurate. 

In this case, the world is probably less surprised America chose a bombastic, arrogant, domineering bigot as it's leader than Americans are.

I'm a foreigner and I'm surprised. Maybe I've spent too much time listening to you people,I've actually drunk the Koolaid.

 

14 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

Yeah, but California has the world's 6th largest economy. They could manage it. 

The US takes a far more...muscular stance towards secession than the Euros

[Weeping Sore]

It looks like Clinton fell off Obama's numbers in 2012 with millennials, African American voters, and those who make < $50,000 a year.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, Weeping Sore said:

It looks like Clinton fell off Obama's numbers in 2012 with millennials, African American voters, and those who make < $50,000 a year.

There appears to be an "enthusiasm gap" that Sec. Clinton was unable to close.

[Rhom]

3 minutes ago, Arch-MaesterPhilip said:

I an friends with a woman who posted something similar on Facebook . She admitted that Democrats are just as responsible for Trump as Republicans. She put H.W., W, and McCain in there with Romney.

And I think that's fair. 

[DunderMifflin]

4 minutes ago, Weeping Sore said:

It looks like Clinton fell off Obama's numbers in 2012 with millennials, African American voters, and those who make < $50,000 a year.

Ive gotten the impression that a good bit of the black community was offended by Hillary being hoisted up as the black people's savior. With no resume to back it up or any stated objective outcome that would make their lives better.

 

[Commodore]

obstruction will suddenly come back in style, and dissent will once again be hailed as the highest form of patriotism

fwiw I've always been a big fan of the former, it (checks and balances, separation of powers) is the only thing that preserves liberty

[Minstral]

21 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

As someone who is always perilously close to 'anti-American'...usually specific to foreign policy and shit like guns/prisons/racism/militarism/etc. I'm still shocked this actually happened. It's an old adage, but always true; if you have a foreigner and an American write a description of what America is and what it's likely to do, the foreigner is much more likely to be accurate. 

In this case, the world is probably less surprised America chose a bombastic, arrogant, domineering bigot as it's leader than Americans are.

I'm less surprised than you I think, but I think that we would both mirror each other in our thoughts. I'm somewhat despondent if not surprised, and the huge question looms as to what this means for the countries that border the USA. For Mexico they have a saying by one of their presidents: "Poor Mexico, so far from God so close to the USA.". A militarized border is likely to follow, but will someone convince him out of the vanity project of a giant physical wall. For Canada, my country, how far will Trump take the rhetoric of tearing up agreements with other countries? The US has always influenced us disproportionately (worse for Mexico), but rapid deterioration in the relations of many allies simultaneously is never a good thing.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, Commodore said:

obstruction will suddenly come back in style, and dissent will once again be hailed as the highest form of patriotism

Dissent has never not been a form of patriotism.

[Weeping Sore]

1 minute ago, DunderMifflin said:

Ive gotten the impression that a good bit of the black community was offended by Hillary being hoisted up as the black people's savior. With no resume or any stated objective outcome that would make their lives better.

I mean she still got 88%. But 88% is not 93%

[Arch-MaesterPhilip]

2 minutes ago, Rhom said:

And I think that's fair. 

I don't always agree with her but she's honest. 

[Michael Seswatha Jordan]

@James Arryn

That's the wrong direction, though; people are on their best behaviour during the campaign. We're now hoping that Trump will be the opposite of that.

Bad behavior, or what he needed to do to simply get the attention needed to gain votes and bring the white male (oh, don't let me forget, racist, misogynist bigots) to the polls? I mean sure he was an ass on the most obnoxious way, but if you don't believe it wasn't part of a plan, then I think you missed the point of it all. I think how he handled victory last night, is a very good sign at how humbling such an honor of POTUS can be. He truly feels the weight of the nation on his shoulders now, and even further when he is debriefed when entering office. That's when reality sets in. Its when it set in for Obama and he couldn't just bring 1000's of troops back home. The world will not change for Trump, hopefully he is truly respectful enough of this nation and it's people, to be the one who changes. I hope so, anyway.

[butterbumps!]

7 minutes ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

What are you referring to?

i listed some in the last thread:  it's the people who "just don't like her," cry "corruption!" (while favoring Trump), say that she "was mean to her SS detail," and assert those sorts of judgments that seem more suspicious to me.   She most definitely has been under less forgiving and harder scrutiny for years and years than a guy would be, and for different reasons.    

in short-- the less substantive criticisms of her raise my hackles.  The ones that have a lot to do with style-- how she should smile more, be more inviting, less frigid, but careful, too much and she risks coming across like a floozy.   Not to mention the rigorous moral and otherwise standards she is held to that certainly aren't applied uniformly.

I mean, I definitely remember Michelle Obama being characterized as an angry black woman when Obama first came along.  People really weren't liking her initially.  And if she gave some of her recent acclaimed speeches in the context of her own campaign, I'm not convinced she would get as much praise as she has.   

I think we might have some issues coming to terms with women candidates.

[Ice Queen]

4 minutes ago, TheKitttenGuard said:

Trump won MI, PA, and WI.  These were solid Blue States for decades.  They are also state that are most perceived to have been hurt by the free trade deals. 

All the major "scientific" polling clearly missed something for they did not see the magnitude of the shift with Non-College educated working Whites.

I agree on a lot of points but I also know there was a growing disconnect with the Democratic Party getting quite comfortable with more Corporate closeness when it came to Social issues and whatever their concerns of Democrats  was simple lip service.  Also, solution that do get offer cut against their sense of, perceived, worth.  I may really believed that efficiency and raising wages no longer correlate that something like a Basic Wage is feasible.  Not many do and the idea of just getting a government check as something as a personal insult.

 

I really think things are more muddled on the overall Left/Right divide then either side is looking at.  There are some real challenges coming and I have some despair but I do not see some great ideological triumph that is being claimed.  I see a triumph of Personality politics and that have real non-ideological concerns.

It's the white uneducated working class' ("I love the uneducated!") last stand. They're a dying demographic and that scares them. 

What they don't seem to grasp is that it's the decades of conservative economic policies that have put them into the hole they're in, but they're going to find out in pretty short order that they've dug themselves and even deeper hole. And the biggest disconnect is the education level. For years we've all been told that if you were poor then it was your own fault because you didn't work hard enough. But now they're acting like they have the RIGHT to a good job...but don't have the education or the skills to get one. They've become what they've scorned and sneered at and can't even see it for what it is. 

 

[James Arryn]

2 minutes ago, butterbumps! said:

don't you think there's been certain criticisms leveled against her that are utterly not substantive and highly suspicious in terms of being gendered/ coded for discomfort with a woman?     If your point is that we shouldn't automatically shout "SEXISM" at every criticism of a woman candidate, then I'm sure no one on here would disagree with you.    

But there are definitely a whole lot of criticisms that get raised about her that should raise red flags.  

It's one of those things where no one would disagree in general, but each and every actual situation it does apply...

Yes, there is an ever-present danger that sexual prejudice is in the mix. I also belong to a male dominated but racially diverse sports oriented website that would inform you that race and racial archetypes are ever present qualifiers on any judgment, and would pick apart your posts and show you the assumptions you are unconsciously making.

Iow, I think we're all in a storm pulled in different directions by different prejudicial winds, and some of us choose The Wind that defines Everything, and often it generally does define a lot. But to assume it defines X absent of actual information that it does is to join the Other, the Collective, the People Who Think In Blocks, and I...largely as a result of my bohemian artist mother's upbringing...though she is now sadly Catholic/judgmental in ways which seem absurdly foreign to me...refuse to think that way. Pedestrian as it may be, I take each argument/advocate on it's isolated merits. I think you can attribute blocks to people who support Trump, at least passively, because his rhetoric allows for no shadows of doubt. But that's not the same as criticism of Hillary; I think some of her criticism is exacerbated by gender,smoke caused by it, some even excused by it, but absent her gender she remains a very experiences but flawed candidate whose greatest asset (Trump as the alternative) she failed to exploit. I attribute A LOT of that to various inherent prejudices in America, and clearly some of those are gender oriented, but Obama would have beaten the crap out of Trump irrespective of the truth of racism, and a better female candidate would have done the same. 

The irony is Bill; without the assosciation, the odds that she'd have been in this place and given this opportunity are very, very low w/e her credentials. But at the same time she paid a price of assosciation. Bill had the ability to swindle you and let have you leaving the room thinking he was a charming rascal. Hillary in a way pays the bill he leaves outstanding, because she doesn't possess that kind of personal charm; few do. So with her you see the inten to shape pinion, but you don't really buy in. I don't think that's gender; my greatest parallel for her is Gore, who would impress you with credentials and positions and even commitment, but left you too aware of what he wanted out of you. 

[Castel]

9 minutes ago, TheKitttenGuard said:

Trump won MI, PA, and WI.  These were solid Blue States for decades.  They are also state that are most perceived to have been hurt by the free trade deals. 

All the major "scientific" polling clearly missed something for they did not see the magnitude of the shift with Non-College educated working Whites.

I agree on a lot of points but I also know there was a growing disconnect with the Democratic Party getting quite comfortable with more Corporate closeness when it came to Social issues and whatever their concerns of Democrats  was simple lip service.  Also, solution that do get offer cut against their sense of, perceived, worth.  I may really believed that efficiency and raising wages no longer correlate that something like a Basic Wage is feasible.  Not many do and the idea of just getting a government check as something as a personal insult.

I really think things are more muddled on the overall Left/Right divide then either side is looking at.  There are some real challenges coming and I have some despair but I do not see some great ideological triumph that is being claimed.  I see a triumph of Personality politics and that have real non-ideological concerns.

I can't like fivethirtyeight cause I blocked it on this computer (couldn't spend weeks watching the trainwreck) but my understanding is that Trump was within a normal polling error, i.e. 2-3% across the board. He barely won Michigan and won WI by 1%, and he didn't win the popular vote by any significant margin. 

The scientific polls "missed" it, insofar as polls have an inherent amount of error and Trump was within that margin, enough to grab the EC.

But yes, Dems  did do things like NAFTA  and such and those are perceived as being job killers. The GOP isn't innocent either. Usually it doesn't land that hard on one side but Trump rode out of the wilderness and claimed the hopes of his party with none of their actions. His stance was "against anything bad the GOP did, will bring all the good"

4 minutes ago, Commodore said:

obstruction will suddenly come back in style, and dissent will once again be hailed as the highest form of patriotism

Oh, it left? When was Merrick Garland voted on?